Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[hayneplane]

Agreed, especially on Catalunya. His risks of losing reserves in this quest are up to him. He hopefully knows when to check out of a race and rest up. The psychological focus and added press attention is always another set of demands and how he handles setbacks. They'll come and the Giro seems like the most likely venue for that. Like Peyro said, it can be cold and wet...and taxing.

Learning how to accept getting bored will be key during the Giro as he could win 10 stages if he raced like he was in PCM.

It would be wise to smash the first week and build a big lead that then sets up the rest to fight among each other for the podium as then the other teams will police breaks and spare UAE a lot of the donkey work controlling the race thus keeping key domestique fresher for the Tour and the double attempt where he will need the full strength of his lieutenants.

 

[Salvarani]

When Tom Dumoulin can get 2nd and 2nd, the double is hardly impossible. We just see very few of the top riders try it.

Froome also did and G. Thomas won.

How is that comparable or even relevant to now?

 

[pelotonIQ]

Fair enough, but not very good take, IMO.
Your 2nd point is simply laughable. It's a fashionable trend to explain nowadays everything in terms of data.

Even if Pogacar was racing like a madman in 2022 Tour and thought Roglic could be a contender, even if he was injured in his preparation for 2023 Tour, I think being 2nd for two years in a row didn't humble him but made him much more ambitious.

He is in for the double. He has always been compared to Merckx but for the first time he confesses he wants to be (he already is) legendary, the GOAT.

Of course they're promoting it as Pogacar attempting the 'double' instead of Pogacar hedging with the Giro, the former sounds better from a PR perspective.

It would have looked bad season wise for Pogacar if he goes 3 seasons in a row without a grand tour GC win to his name.

 

[Salvarani]

@mou promised us brutality at Catalonia. And brutality was delivered

The GOAT

 

[hayneplane]

Pogi might ride the Olympics but it’s not something he plans to seriously contest. Without fishing for it, I believe he’s said as much he can’t/doesn’t want to win it

He is easily a top 5 favourite on that parcours and we have seen Wiggins win Tour and Olympic TT in quick succession with the same form peak. Slovenia also have the team to make it a really hard race and shake out the tactical options of probably all but the Belgian team who should still have Wout and Remco to the fore in the last 50km.

The Worlds is a bigger goal as the parcours this year make him red hot favourite.

 

[scribers]

Of course they're promoting it as Pogacar attempting the 'double' instead of Pogacar hedging with the Giro, the former sounds better from a PR perspective.

It would have looked bad season wise for Pogacar if he goes 3 seasons in a row without a grand tour GC win to his name.

I shall acknowledge your trolling. But it is rather weak

 

[Extinction]

"I'm in better shape..." compared to previous years at this stage of the season. So, it's official, straight from the horse's mouth, it's the best version of Pogacar yet moving forward (as I said).

 

[AmRacer]

It is laughable when people assume the Giro is a preparation for the tour. It takes a lot to win one GT, let alone two.

Facts on the table:

1. Pogacar has not won a GT for 2 years, going into year 3 now.
2. His main rivals Vingegaard & Visma seem to have his number and knows how to beat him and have done so succesfully back to back.
3. The olympics are upon us this season and Pogacar has expressed that he is participating.
4. The Giro trophy is sexier than the Tour trophy.

Even looking at interviews, Pogacar has said that he has been training hard in the winter and his race shape in the early season proves that.

So far, everything is pointing towards a Giro peak. He isn't going there to attack on a single stage just to ride the rest of it defensively to save his legs/energy for the tour.

In professional cycling, you can only peak so many times and for him to win the Giro, Tour and Olympics/Worlds means that he would need to be in peak shape or close to peak shape almost for the entire stretch of the season which is obviously impossible.

What's likely happening is that our friends at UAE saw this season as an opportunity to combine the Giro with the Olympics (although a national team event, UAE still benefit from the PR) as their main season goals as a hedge against the tour so even if he loses, he's atleast ended his GT drought, added a new trophy to the cabinet and crossed the Giro off his bucket list.

He only tried TdF so it's little difficult to win Giro or Vuelta the past two years.

 

[Extinction]

It is laughable when people assume the Giro is a preparation for the tour. It takes a lot to win one GT, let alone two.

Facts on the table:

1. Pogacar has not won a GT for 2 years, going into year 3 now.
2. His main rivals Vingegaard & Visma seem to have his number and knows how to beat him and have done so succesfully back to back.
3. The olympics are upon us this season and Pogacar has expressed that he is participating.
4. The Giro trophy is sexier than the Tour trophy.

Even looking at interviews, Pogacar has said that he has been training hard in the winter and his race shape in the early season proves that.

So far, everything is pointing towards a Giro peak. He isn't going there to attack on a single stage just to ride the rest of it defensively to save his legs/energy for the tour.

In professional cycling, you can only peak so many times and for him to win the Giro, Tour and Olympics/Worlds means that he would need to be in peak shape or close to peak shape almost for the entire stretch of the season which is obviously impossible.

What's likely happening is that our friends at UAE saw this season as an opportunity to combine the Giro with the Olympics (although a national team event, UAE still benefit from the PR) as their main season goals as a hedge against the tour so even if he loses, he's atleast ended his GT drought, added a new trophy to the cabinet and crossed the Giro off his bucket list.

Another take is that they, yes, initially hedged their bets, but then concluded he can peak twice: once for the Giro and once for the Tour-Olympics. Let's see.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I don’t think you know what “chance” means. Let’s put it like this: IF Rogla pulls himself together and presents himself in the form of his life, then he has a chance of winning the Tour. Based on self evident truths of cycling and the universe, his chance of winning the Tour even in that case is still smaller that the chance of Pog and Vinge. If you don’t believe me, ask “the mob”.

Logically: If Pog has higher chance of winning the Tour than Rogla, then Rogla would have to have at least that much higher chance of winning the Vuelta than Pog has to win the Giro. Unless you want to debate that Roglic has the highest chance of winning the Tour. But not with me😁

OK so you are giving Rogla a chance to win the Tour if in good form. Here we do agree. Then you make an U turn and do side with the mob and say Pogi still has a better chance of winning the Tour, basically regardless of in what shape Rogla is and regardless of Pogi doing Giro first. Here i hope you do see the collective madness at play.

As for the logical part. Won't comment on it in depth as it's too far fetched. That is in my opinion Pogi, after Giro, doesn't have a bigger chance of winning the Tour then Rogla if in a good shape. And if Rogla wins the Tour then he more or less remains the only rider with a chance to win the double in the 2024 season. Others more or less with 0 chance.

 

[bNator]

It is laughable when people assume the Giro is a preparation for the tour. It takes a lot to win one GT, let alone two.

Facts on the table:

1. Pogacar has not won a GT for 2 years, going into year 3 now.
2. His main rivals Vingegaard & Visma seem to have his number and knows how to beat him and have done so succesfully back to back.
3. The olympics are upon us this season and Pogacar has expressed that he is participating.
4. The Giro trophy is sexier than the Tour trophy.

Even looking at interviews, Pogacar has said that he has been training hard in the winter and his race shape in the early season proves that.

So far, everything is pointing towards a Giro peak. He isn't going there to attack on a single stage just to ride the rest of it defensively to save his legs/energy for the tour.

In professional cycling, you can only peak so many times and for him to win the Giro, Tour and Olympics/Worlds means that he would need to be in peak shape or close to peak shape almost for the entire stretch of the season which is obviously impossible.

What's likely happening is that our friends at UAE saw this season as an opportunity to combine the Giro with the Olympics (although a national team event, UAE still benefit from the PR) as their main season goals as a hedge against the tour so even if he loses, he's atleast ended his GT drought, added a new trophy to the cabinet and crossed the Giro off his bucket list.

Things are changing in professional cycling. Even Vingegaard is quite different compared to previous TDF specialists who had a really narrow peak in July. When was the last time a TDF champion would kick ass in March before the current generation of riders? Now they're all like that: Pogacar, Roglic, Vingegaard, Evenepoel (to an extent). We may learn very soon that for the current crop of riders using their current method of preparation, a double is not such a big deal.

Apart from that, there's an important detail you are missing. Based on what we have seen so far this season, Giro should be a walk in the park for Pog. He should win effortlessly. His effort should be comparable to that of Kuss in 2023 or even less so. Do you know who is his biggest rival according to oddschecker? Geraint Thomas. Then Ben O'Connor, then Damiano Caruso... Combined with an easy route, this could be a training ride for Pog.

OK so you are giving Rogla a chance to win the Tour if in good form. Here we do agree. Then you make an U turn and do side with the mob and say Pogi still has a better chance of winning the Tour, basically regardless of in what shape Rogla is and regardless of Pogi doing Giro first. Here i hope you do see the collective madness at play.

As for the logical part. Won't comment on it in depth as it's too far fetched. That is in my opinion Pogi, after Giro, doesn't have a bigger chance of winning the Tour then Rogla if in a good shape. And if Rogla wins the Tour then he more or less remains the only rider with a chance to win the double in the 2024 season. Others more or less with 0 chance.

See, that's why I said you don't know what chance is... When we are talking about chance for July outcome in March, a chance for being in good/bad shape in basically what we are talking about - the rest the ability to materialise that shape and blind luck, both of them not important at this moment.

What I meant was: if Rogla turns out in his best shape, there's still a high chance that either Pogacar or Vingegaard are in better relative shape than him. Surely that's not madness - it's just a realistic position, based on previous experience which is those two dropping everyone like stones wherever they show up, more than Roglic ever did.

That's not to say I won't be hoping for him to do a miracle once again. But it will have to be a miracle to beat both of them, to be honest...

 

[CyclistAbi]

@bNator

I agree we should let go the debate about what a chance really is. Such debate would likely turn out to be a dead end anyway.

So as for what you really meant. No, i wont side with the mob here. Rogla in his best shape is in my opinion more likely to win the Tour, compared to Pogi doing the Giro first.

P.S. As for Jonas, he is a favourite, still i feel that Rogla knows on how to tackle Jonas.

 

[Extinction]

@bNator

I agree we should let go the debate about what a chance really is. Such debate would likely turn out to be a dead end anyway.

So as for what you really meant. No, i wont side with the mob here. Rogla in his best shape is in my opinion more likely to win the Tour, compared to Pogi doing the Giro first.

P.S. As for Jonas, he is a favourite, still i feel that Rogla knows on how to tackle Jonas.

But Rog at Bora has no chance against Ving at Visma. The pecking order was established. He was not stronger. He needed to go, caught as he was between a rock and a hard place. So, I say, the most to expect at the Tour is fifth place.

 

[hayneplane]

Things are changing in professional cycling. Even Vingegaard is quite different compared to previous TDF specialists who had a really narrow peak in July. When was the last time a TDF champion would kick ass in March before the current generation of riders? Now they're all like that: Pogacar, Roglic, Vingegaard, Evenepoel (to an extent). We may learn very soon that for the current crop of riders using their current method of preparation, a double is not such a big deal.

Apart from that, there's an important detail you are missing. Based on what we have seen so far this season, Giro should be a walk in the park for Pog. He should win effortlessly. His effort should be comparable to that of Kuss in 2023 or even less so. Do you know who is his biggest rival according to oddschecker? Geraint Thomas. Then Ben O'Connor, then Damiano Caruso... Combined with an easy route, this could be a training ride for Pog.


See, that's why I said you don't know what chance is... When we are talking about chance for July outcome in March, a chance for being in good/bad shape in basically what we are talking about - the rest the ability to materialise that shape and blind luck, both of them not important at this moment.

What I meant was: if Rogla turns out in his best shape, there's still a high chance that either Pogacar or Vingegaard are in better relative shape than him. Surely that's not madness - it's just a realistic position, based on previous experience which is those two dropping everyone like stones wherever they show up, more than Roglic ever did.

That's not to say I won't be hoping for him to do a miracle once again. But it will have to be a miracle to beat both of them, to be honest...

Well Wiggins in 2012 won Paris-Nice/Romandie/Dauphine all before winning the Tour and Olympic TT. That was a season long long stage race dominance.

 

[Vudy]

But Rog at Bora has no chance against Ving at Visma. The pecking order was established. He was not stronger. He needed to go, cought as he was between a rock and a hard place. So, I say, the most to expect at the Tour is fifth place.

I can see him coming third if he gets to form...

 

[CyclistAbi]

But Rog at Bora has no chance against Ving at Visma. The pecking order was established. He was not stronger. He needed to go, cought as he was between a rock and a hard place. So, I say, the most to expect at the Tour is fifth place.

It's the opposite, at Visma Rogla would at most be plan B, his chances long gone before that, waiting for Jonas to fail first, at Tour. And even that was denied in 2023 season, by team. Where Rogla was actually prepared to undertake the Giro/Tour double.

At Bora i agree that although it's all in for Rogla he will need to earn leadership on the road. And in my opinion Rogla will do just that.

 

[Elos Anjos]

But Rog at Bora has no chance against Ving at Visma. The pecking order was established. He was not stronger. He needed to go, cought as he was between a rock and a hard place. So, I say, the most to expect at the Tour is fifth place.

That's not what we saw at Vuelta. He was on par with Vingo.
Half of my posts in this forum are mostly concerned with pulling heads out of the data conundrum. It's a new determinism that makes everyone dull. And it turns cycling into a mechanical thing, a variant of risk assessment or cost-benefit analysis while in sports the mental side is impressive. Roglic built his career setback after setback by pushing himself further.
I'm not blind to Roglic chances being lower than Vingo because of his team change but I don't see it written in stone. Riders are as good as they perform and win.

 

[Ripper]

It is laughable when people assume the Giro is a preparation for the tour. It takes a lot to win one GT, let alone two.

Facts on the table:

1. Pogacar has not won a GT for 2 years, going into year 3 now.
2. His main rivals Vingegaard & Visma seem to have his number and knows how to beat him and have done so succesfully back to back.
3. The olympics are upon us this season and Pogacar has expressed that he is participating.
4. The Giro trophy is sexier than the Tour trophy.

Even looking at interviews, Pogacar has said that he has been training hard in the winter and his race shape in the early season proves that.

So far, everything is pointing towards a Giro peak. He isn't going there to attack on a single stage just to ride the rest of it defensively to save his legs/energy for the tour.

In professional cycling, you can only peak so many times and for him to win the Giro, Tour and Olympics/Worlds means that he would need to be in peak shape or close to peak shape almost for the entire stretch of the season which is obviously impossible.

What's likely happening is that our friends at UAE saw this season as an opportunity to combine the Giro with the Olympics (although a national team event, UAE still benefit from the PR) as their main season goals as a hedge against the tour so even if he loses, he's atleast ended his GT drought, added a new trophy to the cabinet and crossed the Giro off his bucket list.

It will become evident pretty soon in how he races the Giro. If he races to obliterate people repeatedly ... utterly dominate and put loads of time in, then it will definitely be more than a training ride as some other posters have suggested. And a true peak for the Giro would mean some down time before another peak. So aiming a bit later than the Tour also adds up.

Having said this, we have seen all sorts of f*ckery over the years. 95% all year long (LOL), mini-peaks, timing form for a very slow ramp up, etc. So who knows what UAE witchcraft might be in motion? We have also seen over the years repeated issues where the "ego is writing cheques your body can't cash" (yup, a movie quote)

 

[pelotonIQ]

Apart from that, there's an important detail you are missing. Based on what we have seen so far this season, Giro should be a walk in the park for Pog. He should win effortlessly. His effort should be comparable to that of Kuss in 2023 or even less so. Do you know who is his biggest rival according to oddschecker? Geraint Thomas. Then Ben O'Connor, then Damiano Caruso... Combined with an easy route, this could be a training ride for Pog.

One thing we can agree on is that Pogacar is the most likely the winner of the Giro but it's not going to be with minimal effort saving energy like you're assuming.

The fact of the matter is that Pogacar has never ridden defensively or economically, he is not that type of rider. There are many stages up for grabs and you can bet your money that he is not passing them up.

 

[Extinction]

That's not what we saw at Vuelta. He was on par with Vingo.
Half of my posts in this forum are mostly concerned with pulling heads out of the data conundrum. It's a new determinism that makes everyone dull. And it turns cycling into a mechanical thing, a variant of risk assessment or cost-benefit analysis while in sports the mental side is impressive. Roglic built his career setback after setback by pushing himself further.
I'm not blind to Roglic chances being lower than Vingo because of his team change but I don't see it written in stone. Riders are as good as they perform and win.

It's all just Greek to me, but I'm not deterministic, yet parameters are parameters. In layman's terms, "Rog on par with Vingo" can be explained by one doing the Giro first and the other the Tour, plus Sepp got in the way of the Dane showing what he was actually made of in that race. I thus seriously doubt, with the numbers in hand (that enticing determinism again), Visma-ex-Jumbo would have let Rog go if it were otherwise.

 

[mou]

Pog changed his plans at the last minute because Urska went with the women's team to the Sierra Nevada, he has no one to cook at home, no company, Mohoric, Mathews, Formolo are all at the races, so at the last minute it was decided to do the altitude because of the company

 

[Berniece]

That's not what we saw at Vuelta. He was on par with Vingo.

I didn't see that. Not saying that wasn't the case, just that we didn't see that.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pog changed his plans at the last minute because Urska went with the women's team to the Sierra Nevada, he has no one to cook at home, no company, Mohoric, Mathews, Formolo are all at the races, so at the last minute it was decided to do the altitude because of the company

Post of the season so far.

 

[Froome]

I didn't see that. Not saying that wasn't the case, just that we didn't see that.

We didn’t see that because it didn’t happened, it's just wishfull thinking(by the usual suspect).

Firstable, Vingegaard was doing the Tour, when Roglic was doing the preparation for the Vuelta with altitude training camps, so Roglic did a better preparation for the race.

Vingegaard wasn't in his best shape during all the Vuelta(even if he improved his shape in the last week and half of the race), he was sick in the first week, and even so he could follow Roglic on Jalavambre. They were on par just in the first 10 days, because of that issues.

Now, if we talk about Basque country next week, yes, Roglic has a strong chance of winning the race, because muritos are his territory.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Wonderful.

Even though this is the internet, a bit of intellectual honesty is appreciated.

Namely that when discussing Roglic's Giro and Vuelta(s) with Remco or Vingo, his falls should be taken into account regarding his performances.

Just as we are reminded again again that Vingo was having a lack of (love) something to hold his own during Vuelta and thus underperformed in the ITT...so willfully in a near future some users can contextualize their precious, precious w/kg ramblings and see that they are not objective assessments that confirm their prejudices, but always a reading of some set of circumstances that allow for interpretation.