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Amstel is Gold, Jerry, Gold! Men's Classic One-Day Race, April 14, 2024

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Who will win Amstel Gold (Men) 2024?

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Cookster15

Cookster15

May 14, 2011
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Kwaremonster said:
I honestly don't know. He is in the form of his life and better supported then ever, but maybe he is already past his peak and this is still a race that hasn't suited him as much in the past as a race like Flanders or Roubaix.

I'm betting on Pidcock or Healy.
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I am surprised at your comments. Whilst you could be right about Pocock or Healy, I first took notice of MVDP when he won Amstel in 2019. He can’t be that unsuited? Plus, he should be at least as strong now as in 2019.
 
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Dekker_Tifosi

Dekker_Tifosi

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Cookster15 said:
I am surprised at your comments. Whilst you could be right about Pocock or Healy, I first took notice of MVDP when he won Amstel in 2019. He can’t be that unsuited? Plus, he should be at least as strong now as in 2019.
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he is physically much stronger than 19, 20, 21, 22.. perhaps only glasgow 23 vdp was stronger.

But the question about his peak is legit. How long can he really extend top form? he was already near top in E3 Prijs, that is 4 weeks ago.
 
K

Kwaremonster

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Cookster15 said:
I am surprised at your comments. Whilst you could be right about Pocock or Healy, I first took notice of MVDP when he won Amstel in 2019. He can’t be that unsuited? Plus, he should be at least as strong now as in 2019.
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It's just hard to rate his 2019 performance. Yes it was a super performance but its not clear whether he won despite or because of the course. The way it played out, him burning his matches to early and then only coming back, in a incredible way ofcourse, because alaphilippe and fuglsang started playing games. Could he have followed alaphilippe on the Eyserbosweg/Keutenberg? We will never know.

And then in 2022 he was not that special. You can say he was not in peak shape but its still different from Flanders or Roubaix where he is always there or thereabouts.
 
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K

Keldergoat

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Dekker_Tifosi said:
he is physically much stronger than 19, 20, 21, 22.. perhaps only glasgow 23 vdp was stronger.

But the question about his peak is legit. How long can he really extend top form? he was already near top in E3 Prijs, that is 4 weeks ago.
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E3 is 3 weeks ago, no, not 4?

And I doubt whether he was in peak shape back then. Though very boring, his Roubaix performance I rank among his very best and that was 5 days ago.

@Kwaremonster Actually in 2022 he wasn't that great a week before AGR in PR where he ended 9th. It was clear that his form was declining post RvV. In fact, 2022 was a very unusual season for him where he only started training in February after his 'back problem winter'. He then was instantly decent in MSR, good in RvV but then his only real peak that year was the first stage of the Giro. The Tour was straight out disappointing and we all know the WCs drama. But in general, due to hsi smaller training base that season is really hard to compare with any of the others.
 
Dekker_Tifosi

Dekker_Tifosi

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Keldergoat said:
E3 is 3 weeks ago, no, not 4?

And I doubt whether he was in peak shape back then. Though very boring, his Roubaix performance I rank among his very best and that was 5 days ago.

@Kwaremonster Actually in 2022 he wasn't that great a week before AGR in PR where he ended 9th. It was clear that his form was declining post RvV. In fact, 2022 was a very unusual season for him where he only started training in February after his 'back problem winter'. He then was instantly decent in MSR, good in RvV but then his only real peak that year was the first stage of the Giro. The Tour was straight out disappointing and we all know the WCs drama. But in general, due to hsi smaller training base that season is really hard to compare with any of the others.
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actually AGR was before Roubaix in 2022 because of some French event/election stuff. And indeed, his base was too short that year.

He's done much better prep this time. Also according to his buddy Niels Verdijck, the move to spain also meant he trained much more uphill and climbs better. Whether that is true remains to be seen ofcourse.
 
Dekker_Tifosi

Dekker_Tifosi

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20240412_114144.jpg


No Jasper in the end
 
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Devil's Elbow

Devil's Elbow

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red_flanders said:
Seemed...fairly strong...this past Sunday.

Hard to imagine his form dropping enough for anyone else to actually compete here.
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Then again, the difference between in form and not in form is pretty stark for Van der Poel, quite unlike his peers, and he can go from the one to the other quite suddenly. Of course he should still win but I don't expect him to be quite as dominant as he's been on the cobbles.
 
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staubsauger

staubsauger

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Dekker_Tifosi said:
he is physically much stronger than 19, 20, 21, 22.. perhaps only glasgow 23 vdp was stronger.

But the question about his peak is legit. How long can he really extend top form? he was already near top in E3 Prijs, that is 4 weeks ago.
Click to expand...
No way he was stronger in Glasgow Ruben!

2024 Paris-Roubaix was a triumphal procession by Mathieu van der Poel! It was more like a military parade in Mathieu's honor than an actual bike race! (That took place behind)
 
red_flanders

red_flanders

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Devil's Elbow said:
Then again, the difference between in form and not in form is pretty stark for Van der Poel, quite unlike his peers, and he can go from the one to the other quite suddenly. Of course he should still win but I don't expect him to be quite as dominant as he's been on the cobbles.
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OK. I expect him to win, I don’t expect it to be minutes, but I’m betting he wins alone unless crash/mechanical.

That said, him winning by minutes would bore me more than it would surprise me.
 
Dekker_Tifosi

Dekker_Tifosi

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staubsauger said:
No way he was stronger in Glasgow Ruben!

2024 Paris-Roubaix was a triumphal procession by Mathieu van der Poel! It was more like a military parade in Mathieu's honor than an actual bike race! (That took place behind)
Click to expand...
idk, worlds glasgow he took nearly 2 minutes with a fall on a group with pogi and van aert and a better Pedersen (before taking it easy in the final k), without fall probably more.
in pr 3 minutes on a group with basically just Pedersen half-injured
 
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