How likely is Tadej Pogačar to win both the Giro and the Tour this season?

[Mayomaniac]

This forum isn't ready for Geriant Thomas dropping him on some of the higher altitude Giro stages like he did on Col Du Granon

We're only serious crash away from Thomas doing the double *knocks on wood*

 

[AmRacer]

Froome but he finished the 2nd Tour as 3rd.

2018 Tour - 1st
2018 Vuelta - 1st
2019 Grio - 1st
2019 Tour - 3rd

That's a 12 month period. The Calendar year starts at 1/1

 

[Tim Cahill]

We're only serious crash away from Thomas doing the double *knocks on wood*

Libertine in particular I worry for if that ever happens.

Something about him lining up in a fluoro jersey in Portugal every summer if he wasn't born in Britain.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Also can we merge this one with the orignial thread? We don't really need the smartass version in addition to the normal one...

 

[AmRacer]

We're only serious crash away from Thomas doing the double *knocks on wood*

Water bottle, Police mc, random crash in the middle of the road or changing gear while sprinting for the win at a MTF?

 

[Slavique Nuke]

Are you seriously qualifying Vingo's participation for the tour this year?

As long as his team says he's not going to be there, why not?

We saw Vingegaard 'not at 100%' in a GT recently, aka the first week or so of the Vuelta last year.

Tadej Pogačar with his usual form would put time into that Vingegaard, no question in my mind.

It's hard to say what he would have been able to do if he hadn't raced in such a way to prevent a particular teammate from winning the race.

 

[Netserk]

Also can we merge this one with the orignial thread? We don't really need the smartass version in addition to the normal one...

This was not meant as a smartass version, but to have an actually meaningful poll.

 

[Offline]

Teams & Riders - Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

Well there was no thread so I made one. This kid has a bright future ahead of him. https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/tadej-pogacar Sealed the overall win at Tour de l'Avenir today by almost 1 and a half minutes, a dominant performance. And came 4th in Tour of Slovenia this year, but only...

forum.cyclingnews.com

 

[Pantani_lives]

People are overestimating his chance to win such a historic double.

Let's say he has a 70% chance to win the Giro and a 30% chance to win the Tour. That would mean he has a 21% chance to win both.

 

[RedheadDane]

Too many numbers in this poll.

 

[Netserk]

People are overestimating his chance to win such a historic double.

Let's say he has a 70% chance to win the Giro and a 30% chance to win the Tour. That would mean he has a 21% chance to win both.

The betting odds have him as 77-83 % for the Giro and 50-70 % for the Tour.

 

[scribers]

Too many numbers in this poll.

I havent been this confused since grade school finals exams

 

[scribers]

This forum isn't ready for Geriant Thomas dropping him on some of the higher altitude Giro stages like he did on Col Du Granon

I might start drinking again

 

[Escarabajo]

According to someone in here about the probabilities of crashes and illnesses he has around 64% chance of doing the double. This is just based on fate and not performance. What is the probability of a surprise performance by someone like Remco, Roglic or someone new? maybe low but needs to be taken into consideration. that lowers the probability to about ~50-55%

 

[Pantani_lives]

The betting odds have him as 77-83 % for the Giro and 50-70 % for the Tour.

I think that's too optimistic for the Tour. Even without crashes etc. he might be tired after the Giro, a bit like Contador when he tried the double. He can't be in top shape all year.

 

[AmRacer]

I think that's too optimistic for the Tour. Even without crashes etc. he might be tired after the Giro, a bit like Contador when he tried the double. He can't be in top shape all year.

That's why he hasn't raced so much.

 

[sam6]

If he doesn't crash it's almost 100%. We've seen how dominant he has been in Strade/Catalunya/LBL, there is no way that, so long as he doesn't crash, anyone on that Giro start list comes close to him

The only 2 riders who have a chance of staying close to him in the mountains are Vingegaard and Roglic. Just look at the last 2 years and how far ahead they were of the field. Vingegaard is injured and I can't see him winning it. Roglic is not in the best form this year, plus it seems unlikely he will drop Pogi even if he can outsprint him on a good day.

Evenepoel is overrated, may gain some time in the TTs but he will get dropped early on multiple mountain stages. I know he lost time to others on Granon and Loze but Granon was down largely to tactics (he still would have been dropped by Vingo but it must be tactics to Bardet and Quintana etc) and Loze was because he had poor prep and partly as knew he had lost. But every time Vingo and Pogi attacked they would just take a minute on the field in no time. Usual laws about he might have a bad day blah blah blah don't apply. All this 10% chance even if he stays upright then he still might lose doesn't apply to Pogi, certainly in the Giro field

The question is, how likely is he to crash? Now, crashes are frequent in cycling as we all know and so I reckon he is about 75% to win the double

 

[Jan the Man]

Nobody has succeeded since1998 for a reason, it is very difficult. I think he wins the Giro comfortably (procided he stays on his bike) - the tour is a different ball game against fresh remco and roglic and possibly Vignegaard (albeit his prep would inevitably have been hampered).

I think there is about 25%-30% chance.

 

[sam6]

In terms of the chance of crashing, last year 150/176 riders finished the Tour. The Giro/Vuelta will be less because you will have a load of sprinters who can't be bothered, and so to get the chance of him finishing a GT looking at the Tour is best. The year before it was 134/176. 2022 was 141/184. 2021 146/184. So in total that is 79% of riders finish. Because some of those are as they OTL, let's say there is almost 90% chance that Pogi finishes each GT which means there is about 80% chance he finishes both. So I'd say about 75% chance he wins both

 

[Ricco']

I'll add:

If he wins Giro and Tour should he forget Olympics and go to the Vuelta to try the treble?

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

In terms of the chance of crashing, last year 150/176 riders finished the Tour. The Giro/Vuelta will be less because you will have a load of sprinters who can't be bothered, and so to get the chance of him finishing a GT looking at the Tour is best. The year before it was 134/176. 2022 was 141/184. 2021 146/184. So in total that is 79% of riders finish. Because some of those are as they OTL, let's say there is almost 90% chance that Pogi finishes each GT which means there is about 80% chance he finishes both. So I'd say about 75% chance he wins both

Some of those finished but had crashed or mechanicals that greatly hurt their performance, though. Hindley in the Tour for example. Contador had many a Tour impacted by a crash that didn’t prevent him from winning. So I think about about it more as odds of finishing the Giro without mishap x odds of finishing the Tour without mishap and get to a lower figure. 75% x 75% gets you to 56%, without getting into competition, accumulated fatigue, etc. Because the competition appears favorable at this time, I give him ~50% odds.

 

[scribers]

I’ve calculated pogi has been underrated about 21% about 34% of the time

 

[Cookster15]

Voted 60%. Crashes and a fresh legged Roglic are tempering my prediction.

I am ruling out Vingegaard at the TdF based upon what I am reading about his recovery and the fact Vingo is much more badly injured than Pog was at last year's LBL. Vingo's DS says we need to wait two weeks to know better.

 

[glassmoon]

Above 80% imho... sadly no real oponent for him this year after all those crashes.

 

[sam6]

Some of those finished but had crashed or mechanicals that greatly hurt their performance, though. Hindley in the Tour for example. Contador had many a Tour impacted by a crash that didn’t prevent him from winning. So I think about about it more as odds of finishing the Giro without mishap x odds of finishing the Tour without mishap and get to a lower figure. 75% x 75% gets you to 56%, without getting into competition, accumulated fatigue, etc. Because the competition appears favorable at this time, I give him ~50% odds.

Pogi can afford multiple mechanicals and still win the Giro. He could probably dislocate his shoulder and still win