U.S. Politics - Page 443 - CyclingNews Forum

Go Back   CyclingNews Forum > Cafe > General

General Grab a short black and come join in the non-cycling discussion. Favourite books, movies, holiday destinations, other sports - chat about it all in the cafe.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #4421  
Old 11-02-12, 20:04
rhubroma's Avatar
rhubroma rhubroma is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 5,418
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glenn_Wilson View Post
Since I have never lived anywhere but where I'm at now then I really have no opinion on the rest of the world. oh wellz.
Then don't complain when the rest of the world ("anywhere but where I'm at now"...ouch) has no opinion of you.
Reply With Quote
  #4422  
Old 11-02-12, 20:12
Bala Verde's Avatar
Bala Verde Bala Verde is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
Posts: 7,112
Send a message via MSN to Bala Verde Send a message via Skype™ to Bala Verde
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Hitch View Post
However both Gallup and Pew Research say Romney is ahead or tied on early voters which is surprising because Obama is supposed to have a big edge there.
Actual numbers don't seem to support that Romney is not ahead, or tied at all. Although the GOP has caught up from 2008.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

For example:
Iowa
2012
584,095
Party Reg
Dem 43.0%
Rep 32.2%
None/Oth 24.8%

2008
690,376
Party Reg
Dem 42.9%
Rep 30.9%
None/Oth 26.2%

NC
2012
Party Reg
Dem 48.0%
Rep 31.8%
None/Oth 20.2%

2008
Party Reg
Dem 47.5%
Rep 32.1%
None/Oth 20.4%

FL: Romney has caught up 0.9 and D are 0.4 behind, so a shift of +1.3 for GOP, which is significant.
2012
Party Reg
Dem 42.5%
Rep 40.3%
None/Oth 17.2%
2008
Party Reg
Dem 42.1%
Rep 39.4%
None/Oth 18.5%

In CO, Romney is ahead:
2012
Party Reg
Dem 34.8%
Rep 37.4%
None/Oth 27.8%
2008
??

NV
2012
Party Reg
Dem 44.0%
Rep 37.6%
None/Oth 18.4%
2008
??

OH, VA are not easy to evaluate, because they don't register by party affiliation (I think)

Given that Obama won FL by around +200K; IA +104K; CO +190K, NV +120K, OH +207K; VA +233K there is quite some margin (Not: NC where he only had +14K), if his EVs remain slightly on par with 2008. I read from a Miami Herald article Obama ran up the EV in 2008 in FL to +280k, and he won by about 200K. They say now (I think) he is ahead +90K, so it seems FL is lost for D, or at least right down to the wire

Another argument for PEW/Gallup is that EV takes place in many more red states (i.e. PA, NJ, NY, RI, MA, DE, CT, NH, with a high population density etc don't have EV) which might, and I am hesitant to use the word, "skew" the national results a bit.

Anyway, as for my prediction, I don't think Obama will win NC again, or FL, but will CO, VA, IA, OH, NV, NH, WI, PA for 303 v 235.

Last edited by Bala Verde; 11-02-12 at 20:41.
Reply With Quote
  #4423  
Old 11-02-12, 20:30
Glenn_Wilson's Avatar
Glenn_Wilson Glenn_Wilson is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 2,602
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rhubroma View Post
Then don't complain when the rest of the world ("anywhere but where I'm at now"...ouch) has no opinion of you.
laughing at you expat.
__________________
something less offensive
Reply With Quote
  #4424  
Old 11-02-12, 20:43
VeloCity's Avatar
VeloCity VeloCity is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 3,096
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glenn_Wilson View Post
See this link. I thought the fellers here at the rig were the only ones thinking like this. Well lookie here some of these here folks thinking about buy some assault weapons.

http://www.infowars.com/gun-sales-su...a-re-election/
"The single largest determining factor as to why gun sales have surged since early 2008 seems to be a collective fear surrounding the election of a big government anti-gun socialist as the final arbiter and protector of the U.S. Constitution. Fear of riots and mass civil unrest has also been frequently cited as a reason for more Americans stockpiling guns, a concern given further legitimacy in light of the fallout from Hurricane Sandy, which has been characterized by anger caused by fuel shortages as well as widespread looting in some areas. Threats by Obama supporters to riot and stoke racial violence if Romney wins have also prompted some to re-assess their home security preparations.”

Well the NRA is right about one thing, it's not guns that we should be worried about, it's guns in the hands of nutjobs.

Last edited by VeloCity; 11-02-12 at 20:45.
Reply With Quote
  #4425  
Old 11-02-12, 21:21
The Hitch's Avatar
The Hitch The Hitch is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: London.
Posts: 22,584
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bala Verde View Post
Actual numbers don't seem to support that Romney is not ahead, or tied at all. Although the GOP has caught up from 2008.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

For example:
Iowa
2012
584,095
Party Reg
Dem 43.0%
Rep 32.2%
None/Oth 24.8%

2008
690,376
Party Reg
Dem 42.9%
Rep 30.9%
None/Oth 26.2%

NC
2012
Party Reg
Dem 48.0%
Rep 31.8%
None/Oth 20.2%

2008
Party Reg
Dem 47.5%
Rep 32.1%
None/Oth 20.4%

FL: Romney has caught up 0.9 and D are 0.4 behind, so a shift of +1.3 for GOP, which is significant.
2012
Party Reg
Dem 42.5%
Rep 40.3%
None/Oth 17.2%
2008
Party Reg
Dem 42.1%
Rep 39.4%
None/Oth 18.5%

In CO, Romney is ahead:
2012
Party Reg
Dem 34.8%
Rep 37.4%
None/Oth 27.8%
2008
??

NV
2012
Party Reg
Dem 44.0%
Rep 37.6%
None/Oth 18.4%
2008
??

OH, VA are not easy to evaluate, because they don't register by party affiliation (I think)

Given that Obama won FL by around +200K; IA +104K; CO +190K, NV +120K, OH +207K; VA +233K there is quite some margin (Not: NC where he only had +14K), if his EVs remain slightly on par with 2008. I read from a Miami Herald article Obama ran up the EV in 2008 in FL to +280k, and he won by about 200K. They say now (I think) he is ahead +90K, so it seems FL is lost for D, or at least right down to the wire

Another argument for PEW/Gallup is that EV takes place in many more red states (i.e. PA, NJ, NY, RI, MA, DE, CT, NH, with a high population density etc don't have EV) which might, and I am hesitant to use the word, "skew" the national results a bit.

Anyway, as for my prediction, I don't think Obama will win NC again, or FL, but will CO, VA, IA, OH, NV, NH, WI, PA for 303 v 235.
Those are the battlegrounds where obama has a huge get out the vote operation. Pew and gallup numbers were national. You might say they don't matter then but even on a national level if those numbers are true it.would reflect a some real backbone strength for romney .

Also.its interesting to see that the state where dems seem yto have the biggest advantage from those you posted, is nc where obama had the smallest chance of winning. I believe also in arkansas as far as i remember democrats hugely outnumber registered republicans but its a safe red state come election day.

Also we need to factor in that many republicans seem.to.be identifying themselves as independents. That's what the obama campaign is saying anyway to explain why polls show a similar d advantage to 2008 and why independents are going romney by 15-20 points. Still i expect in most of the battleground states and especially Ohio ( where 2 polls covered this) obama has some ev advantage.

Btw as far as florida goes some Tampa newspaper did a poll, not statewide, but of 4 key counties that went for.bush in 04 and obama in 08 and the numbers they saw there they basically called the state for romney. not that pollsters calling elections in.Florida based on county.numbers has the best track record.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Florida called the second the polls close and that might impact states still voting. I remember.reading that florida being called for gore in 2000 cost bush votes including in the panhandle which was still voting as people concluded that must mean gore had it in the bag. New Mexico may even have been decided by that seeing as how that was won by a few hundred votes. Not that nm mattered in the end.
not that.
maybe romney is still campaigning in Florida even thought its clearly republican leaning these days so that the media spins it as how a battleground and gets all shocked when he wins it and polls in iowa and Colorado are still open.
__________________
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013 (still undefeated). Currently 2nd all time cq rankings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pre 2009 wiggins
If there's a 1% suspicion or doubt that a team is working with certain doctors, then they shouldn't be invited to the Tour de France - as simple as that.
journalist with integrity.
Reply With Quote
  #4426  
Old 11-02-12, 21:56
Alpe d'Huez's Avatar
Alpe d'Huez Alpe d'Huez is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: New England
Posts: 7,527
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Hitch View Post
On your map im surprised that you give Wisconsin to Romney. the polls there have moved well away from him, he is 5% behind on RCP. Id give Romney a bigger chance at Michigan.
Ahhh, yes. Auto workers must be supporting Romney, that makes sense.

Therefore, in my new map I have Romney winning 273-265.
Reply With Quote
  #4427  
Old 11-02-12, 22:18
The Hitch's Avatar
The Hitch The Hitch is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: London.
Posts: 22,584
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpe d'Huez View Post
Ahhh, yes. Auto workers must be supporting Romney, that makes sense.

Therefore, in my new map I have Romney winning 273-265.
Its strange that polls show romney better in Michigan and i don't trust polls fully but i suppose what he has going for him there are name recognition, gotv operation from 08 and suburban white Reagan democrats. Those voters are worth 2 in so far as they may be switching gop form democrat rather than gop from apathy.
__________________
The Hitch: Winner 2013 Vuelta cq game. Winner, Velorooms prediction game 2012, 2013 (still undefeated). Currently 2nd all time cq rankings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pre 2009 wiggins
If there's a 1% suspicion or doubt that a team is working with certain doctors, then they shouldn't be invited to the Tour de France - as simple as that.
journalist with integrity.

Last edited by The Hitch; 11-02-12 at 23:14.
Reply With Quote
  #4428  
Old 11-02-12, 23:08
auscyclefan94's Avatar
auscyclefan94 auscyclefan94 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 18,838
Default



Interesting to look at the demographic of Democrat voters in 2008 who are changing to GOP or staying loyal.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by diggercuz View Post
second post ever after reading the forum for the last few years and one thing i must say, ACF94 is probably the most intelligent poster here, never biased to BMC or Cadel, and never gets worked up over anything.
Reply With Quote
  #4429  
Old 11-03-12, 06:47
rhubroma's Avatar
rhubroma rhubroma is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 5,418
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glenn_Wilson View Post
laughing at you expat.
That's perfectly fine. Just don't cry bloody outrage when the people of the world protest (or worse), condemn and defy the US for its militant and imperialist foreign policy, or when they are simply outraged about what its military apparatus or corporate-financial machine is doing to their countries and horrendously effecting their lives.

I doubt, to someone such as yourself, that there is anything that could cause healthy (and sane) reflection, but words spoken by someone much wiser than me come to mind: those that have been given more, will be called upon to behave more responsibly and will be held more accountable for their actions.

One thing I reflected upon recently was all the hullaballoo in the press about what Sandy had done to all those poor Americans of New York inconvenienced and/or placed under great hardship, but how much news did we hear about the same situation and worse among the Cubans? Evidently some people are effected by the same catastrophe to a greater extent, or in any case in a more noteworthy fashion in terms of sales and audience shares.

What has always interested moi has been accountability and not applying a double standard, unfortunately most of my compatriots don't see things that way. Accusing me of "Murica bashing" regarding grounded critical analysis, is only the enth proof of this.

Now let's see why what the people of the world think about the US president and the US people in gereral is important, in light of modern history:

- US involvement in BP, Mussadegh and the Scia to Khomeini
- Daniel Ellsberg, the secret Pentagon files, Sticky Fire-Napalm, Vietnam and the Domino Theory
- Saudi Arabia and money laundering
- Saddam Hussein, chemical weapons and the Curds
- Gary Webb and the Iran-Contra scandal
- the crimes of colonialism in the Americas (Banana Republics): Ecuador’s president Roldo's and Panama's Torrijo's deaths; Arbenz, Allende and Standard Oil; the Sandinista Revolution & contras in Nicaragua; United Fruit Co. and Guatemala; Shell, Quito (Ecuador's capitol) and the Ecuadorian people's $ 1 billion law suit against Chevron Texaco Corp.
- Nigeria, the Indonesian government, the Asian Development Bank and USAid
- Union Carbide and the Bhopal disaster
- the Cuban embargo
- the usual rotten barrel: Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr., Clinton, Bush Jr., Obama...; Bechtel, GM, Exon Mobil, Halliburton, GE
- Israel's nuclear arms stock and the Palestinian disaster
- the financing of Osama Bin Laden
- Iraq, Afghanistan, etc., permanent war and bipartisan consent
- the neocons
- the Arab Springtime
- Goldman Sachs, the IMF and ECB (the 'Troika'), austerity economics and Greece
- liberalism's planetary war against social democracy

Just to real off those instances and events that come most readily to mind. These are the things I think about when I vote, not the damn economy; which is why I'm not voting this time, because the same appalling policies that have guided the world under US leadership are destined to remain so until other more powerful forces working from outside upon America make the situation change. I mean when Obama was not even able to close Guantanamo, how can one see any 'change' that's possible under the present regime?

Last edited by rhubroma; 11-03-12 at 15:33.
Reply With Quote
  #4430  
Old 11-03-12, 10:17
auscyclefan94's Avatar
auscyclefan94 auscyclefan94 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Australia
Posts: 18,838
Default

Reading on twitter that in 20 polls covering the 'battleground states', Obama was leading in 19, Romney only in 1. Romney could do worse than expected, now it seems.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by diggercuz View Post
second post ever after reading the forum for the last few years and one thing i must say, ACF94 is probably the most intelligent poster here, never biased to BMC or Cadel, and never gets worked up over anything.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 02:19.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 2006 - 2009 Future Publishing Limited. All rights reserved. Future Publishing Limited is part of the Future plc group. Future Publishing Limited is a company registered in England and Wales with company registration number 2008885 whose registered office is at Beauford Court 30 Monmouth Street Bath, UK BA1 2BW England.