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  #4441  
Old 11-04-12, 00:23
ggusta ggusta is offline
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I haven't been following this thread...seems like you guys are getting into the numbers pretty good...no way does Romney win Michigan...ain't gonna happen...and if he does, he will win...but ain't going to happen...I am no Obama fan and as a Dem I think he has done a pretty lousy job, but my reading is Obama is gonna beat the Romneybot hands down...the media has done a great job exaggerating the closeness of this race...

That said, given the job the dems have done and the state of the economy...if the rethugs had offered ANY new ideas...come up with anything other than ultimately the olde tickledown bs they could have taken it easily...but they certainly won't...might gain a few congress seats...not many senate ones...and it will be 4 more years of the same BS...
I am pretty sure Michigan has been conceded to Obama. Romney certainly isn't devoting substantial resources to it.

IA, OH, PA, WI... those all seem to be in play, a few others went unmentioned as they are in play but lean one way or the other, but yes, MI and MN are pretty much a given for Obama. If Romney were to somehow win either of those it would probably be in the context of an overall bad night all around for Obama. "Landslide" would be too strong a term.

As long as Wednesday morning's results are conclusive enough one way or the other so that we won't have to deal with the 2000 aftermath again I would be relieved even if my guy lost. I can deal with a decisive loss. 2000 left a scar that hasn't healed.
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  #4442  
Old 11-04-12, 00:50
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Originally Posted by ggusta View Post
I am pretty sure Michigan has been conceded to Obama. Romney certainly isn't devoting substantial resources to it.

IA, OH, PA, WI... those all seem to be in play, a few others went unmentioned as they are in play but lean one way or the other, but yes, MI and MN are pretty much a given for Obama. If Romney were to somehow win either of those it would probably be in the context of an overall bad night all around for Obama. "Landslide" would be too strong a term.

As long as Wednesday morning's results are conclusive enough one way or the other so that we won't have to deal with the 2000 aftermath again I would be relieved even if my guy lost. I can deal with a decisive loss. 2000 left a scar that hasn't healed.
last I heard Ohio was pretty much in the bag for O. yes? also, electoral college wise...I dont think romney has a chance...he has to take flor., ohio, penn...to even be in right area...all three...he will take nutty florida I am sure... but he aint gonna do that via the big states electorally...maybe popular...personally, as a long time Dem...and I come from Vermont where we have a Senator, a Socialist...i.e. realist...like Bernie Sanders, I wouldnt mind seeing Obama lose...if people want to buy this BS Rom is spitting out and are that friggin dumb...then so be it...maybe things have to get worse before folks wake up...and maybe that would wake up the dem party who has gone so far middle crashing into the right that it is a joke...and to be truthful, whether O. wins or the rombot wins aint gonna make much difference to most folks lives...they are both total corporatists imho...but that is opening a whole other kettle of worms...
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  #4443  
Old 11-04-12, 09:11
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rhubroma rhubroma is offline
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Clearly you have an outmoded understanding of the word radical (since no one has the time or interest--let alone political integrity--to address issues at the radix or root level). This is the technocratic application. Voters on the real issues that matter get it.
Well if by radix you mean principio, principalis and principium, (that is root causes) then I suppose my understanding of "radical" would be far too grounded in cold reality for most voters to stomach, because too much of a distracting nuisance to the "real issues that matter." Moreover, in this era radical does indeed seem to have become most arriéré, as has, unfortunately, reality. So be it.

As per the issue discussed above regarding global interdependence, Stiglitz identifies reasons why renegades are just so passe and counterproductive. At the same time Ali’s comment is perhaps more to the principium of bilateral positions on foreign policy embeded quite naturally as they are in perpetual US hegemony, hence the absence of any real substantive divergences in approach between parties.

http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...ph-e--stiglitz

Last edited by rhubroma; 11-04-12 at 10:19.
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  #4444  
Old 11-04-12, 14:44
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ChrisE ChrisE is offline
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This video is the problem with democracy. The galactically stupid are allowed to vote. Enjoy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=nY0M7IdNl7U
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  #4445  
Old 11-04-12, 15:22
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I sympathies with people for not wanting to hand over large amounts of their own cash in tax revenue to the government to spend/waste on their behalf, but yeah that video sums up everything bad about the Republican supporters.
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  #4446  
Old 11-04-12, 15:43
aphronesis aphronesis is offline
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Originally Posted by rhubroma View Post
Well if by radix you mean principio, principalis and principium, (that is root causes) then I suppose my understanding of "radical" would be far too grounded in cold reality for most voters to stomach, because too much of a distracting nuisance to the "real issues that matter." Moreover, in this era radical does indeed seem to have become most arriéré, as has, unfortunately, reality. So be it.

As per the issue discussed above regarding global interdependence, Stiglitz identifies reasons why renegades are just so passe and counterproductive. At the same time Ali’s comment is perhaps more to the principium of bilateral positions on foreign policy embeded quite naturally as they are in perpetual US hegemony, hence the absence of any real substantive divergences in approach between parties.

http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...ph-e--stiglitz
You may know better these days the degree to which radix and principium are linked.On Stieglitz: you might look at the Stieglitz, Arrighi, (Harvey) debate in NLR prior to the crash.
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  #4447  
Old 11-05-12, 00:33
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Ill do a prediction map Obama to win electoral college and presidency 281 257

Nationally independents to break to Romney and give him a national 49-48.5% win.





Ohio- Obama 1.3% - declared in the morning. Obama projected on exit polls and leads through the night and holds it out.

Pennsylvania - Obama 3%

Wisconsin - Obama 2 %

Iowa - Obama 0.9%- Called late as everyone is going ape **** over Ohio.

New Hampshire - Obama -1% - Called late

Michigan - Obama 5% - Declared on exit polls

Minnesota - Obama 4%- Declared on exit polls

Nevada - Obama 3%- Declared early due to well known EV advantage.


Florida - Romney 4% - declared early as numbers from central counties and panhandle come in.

Virginia - Romney 1.5% (Romney to build up huge lead through election night and lose most of it as final 10% precincts come in from Northern Virginia)

North Carolina - Romney 6% - declared early.


Colorado - declared either way (but meaningless) days later after a recount.

For the sake of the picture - Romney 0.2%

Playing it very safe and going with the polls and a Bush Kerry incumbency model. This election has far more uncertainty to it though.
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  #4448  
Old 11-05-12, 01:07
ggusta ggusta is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Hitch View Post
Ill do a prediction map Obama to win electoral college and presidency 281 257

Nationally independents to break to Romney and give him a national 49-48.5% win.





Ohio- Obama 1.3% - declared in the morning. Obama projected on exit polls and leads through the night and holds it out.

Pennsylvania - Obama 3%

Wisconsin - Obama 2 %

Iowa - Obama 0.9%- Called late as everyone is going ape **** over Ohio.

New Hampshire - Obama -1% - Called late

Michigan - Obama 5% - Declared on exit polls

Minnesota - Obama 4%- Declared on exit polls

Nevada - Obama 3%- Declared early due to well known EV advantage.


Florida - Romney 4% - declared early as numbers from central counties and panhandle come in.

Virginia - Romney 1.5% (Romney to build up huge lead through election night and lose most of it as final 10% precincts come in from Northern Virginia)

North Carolina - Romney 6% - declared early.


Colorado - declared either way (but meaningless) days later after a recount.

For the sake of the picture - Romney 0.2%

Playing it very safe and going with the polls and a Bush Kerry incumbency model. This election has far more uncertainty to it though.

I was tempted to fill in my own map but declined. I think Romney will win, but I certainly have already vociferously pointed out that the polls are useless, in particular when you look at their measurements of things like likely voters and the breakdown by age in particular of who says they are going to vote compared to what % of their demo votes historically, year after year. So what metrics can I reliably look to to pick state by state? It's really just turnout. This election will have a 'No' vote to a greater extent than we have seen for a long time. (Meaning people actually voting against a candidate rather than just not voting at all.) That will be bad for Obama. The Bush backlash vote occurred in 2008, you won't get a no vote on Romney in the numbers you will for Obama. (Duh) We haven't had an incumbent lose since 1992 and I wouldn't point to a no vote there so much as the typical economic vote which Obama also has against him IN ADDITION to people voting against him in general principles. (and then everyone will scream 'racism' if he loses. Yawn. You mean the people who voted for him 4 years ago just found out?)

I think the aftermath of the result will point to the turnout of Obama voters this election compared to the turnout of people who did not vote in the prior election. I am not going to sit here and prognosticate state by state, but I do not think the electoral count will be terribly close. Having said that I am not afraid if I am dead wrong and Obama wins. We're voting on death by either the gas chamber or electric chair. The outcome will be the same and not a pretty one regardless of the winner.

Like I have said, so long as Wednesday a.m. we have a definite winner, that's about as good a situation as I can expect. We're 'stick a fork in it' done.
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Last edited by ggusta; 11-05-12 at 01:14.
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  #4449  
Old 11-05-12, 03:27
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Originally Posted by ggusta View Post
I was tempted to fill in my own map but declined. I think Romney will win, but I certainly have already vociferously pointed out that the polls are useless, in particular when you look at their measurements of things like likely voters and the breakdown by age in particular of who says they are going to vote compared to what % of their demo votes historically, year after year. So what metrics can I reliably look to to pick state by state? It's really just turnout. This election will have a 'No' vote to a greater extent than we have seen for a long time. (Meaning people actually voting against a candidate rather than just not voting at all.) That will be bad for Obama. The Bush backlash vote occurred in 2008, you won't get a no vote on Romney in the numbers you will for Obama. (Duh) We haven't had an incumbent lose since 1992 and I wouldn't point to a no vote there so much as the typical economic vote which Obama also has against him IN ADDITION to people voting against him in general principles. (and then everyone will scream 'racism' if he loses. Yawn. You mean the people who voted for him 4 years ago just found out?)

I think the aftermath of the result will point to the turnout of Obama voters this election compared to the turnout of people who did not vote in the prior election. I am not going to sit here and prognosticate state by state, but I do not think the electoral count will be terribly close. Having said that I am not afraid if I am dead wrong and Obama wins. We're voting on death by either the gas chamber or electric chair. The outcome will be the same and not a pretty one regardless of the winner.

Like I have said, so long as Wednesday a.m. we have a definite winner, that's about as good a situation as I can expect. We're 'stick a fork in it' done.
Politically i like what you are saying.

The democrats have their dark side too and obama is no messiah. I personally will be far more sympathetic to the party when their candidate isn't considered by himself and his sycophantic fans to.be the stars and the sun and the moon and any suggestions that he should be treated as a politician and not a god dismissed as racism or just right wing quacks.

Ya'll Americans would do very well with a question time system like we have here where the president is accountable and doesn't get to rely 100% on speechwriters and political advisors to release the message and pick and choose his interviews are conducted by and what the questions will be.. Though its not an issue in the campaign obama has been one of if not the worst at this. Not that romney has shown every indication that he will be no.more transparent.

On the poll.point
Polls aren't the be all.end all but at this level, if all the polls are pointing to 1 winner, even if it is a small.margin as it is with obama in Ohio, then they are probably getting something right.

Personally I've been looking at the 04 polls and bush did not outperform in a single battleground state what the poll averages said which is why i doubt romney can turn his deficits around.

However I've been looking as Kerry as the democrat candidate and expecting therefore obama to as the democrat candidate outperform the polls. If i look at it as kerry the challenger and therefore that romney might be the one outperforming the polls in the battleground states then it might be a very long night indeed.
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If there's a 1% suspicion or doubt that a team is working with certain doctors, then they shouldn't be invited to the Tour de France - as simple as that.
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  #4450  
Old 11-05-12, 06:16
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Originally Posted by ggusta View Post
I was tempted to fill in my own map but declined. I think Romney will win, but I certainly have already vociferously pointed out that the polls are useless, in particular when you look at their measurements of things like likely voters and the breakdown by age in particular of who says they are going to vote compared to what % of their demo votes historically, year after year. So what metrics can I reliably look to to pick state by state? It's really just turnout. This election will have a 'No' vote to a greater extent than we have seen for a long time. (Meaning people actually voting against a candidate rather than just not voting at all.) That will be bad for Obama. The Bush backlash vote occurred in 2008, you won't get a no vote on Romney in the numbers you will for Obama. (Duh) We haven't had an incumbent lose since 1992 and I wouldn't point to a no vote there so much as the typical economic vote which Obama also has against him IN ADDITION to people voting against him in general principles. (and then everyone will scream 'racism' if he loses. Yawn. You mean the people who voted for him 4 years ago just found out?)

I think the aftermath of the result will point to the turnout of Obama voters this election compared to the turnout of people who did not vote in the prior election. I am not going to sit here and prognosticate state by state, but I do not think the electoral count will be terribly close. Having said that I am not afraid if I am dead wrong and Obama wins. We're voting on death by either the gas chamber or electric chair. The outcome will be the same and not a pretty one regardless of the winner.

Like I have said, so long as Wednesday a.m. we have a definite winner, that's about as good a situation as I can expect. We're 'stick a fork in it' done.
If Romney wins let the horror begin.
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