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  #1821  
Old 11-19-12, 20:15
gobuck gobuck is offline
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not my pick but,..... why never?
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  #1822  
Old 11-19-12, 21:21
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Originally Posted by Alpe d'Huez View Post
The Cowboys win again, but this Thursday against RGIII will be interesting. The NFC East is still up for grabs, especially with the Giants playing poorly of late. Any of these teams could win that division, and this Thursday's winner will take a big step.

NE looked very impressive. On defense even. But that offense looked like an unstoppable juggernaut in the second half. They lost Gronk until late December, or the playoffs, but get Hernandez back maybe next week.

Nice win for the Jets over the Rams, but it was really the Rams that rolled over.

Ravens looked pretty good, and defense filling in after injuries, so I don't want to write them off, but Steelers were still too injured. Seeing Ben in that sling was a bad sign, and Polamolu still isn't back.

Curious about tonight's Bears-49ers game. Like I said, the team that falls behind will have a hard time winning. Both teams play much better when ahead.
Week 12 coming up has Dallas hosting the Skins, and yes, it will be interesting. Many experts are favoring Dallas for the win, but I don't buy it. Skins never lie down vs Dallas. I really don't know who's going to win, but I am picking the Skins.

Also we have NE at the Jets. Again, many experts are picking the Jets for the win based on the NE injuries, at NY, NY coming off win, etc. But this is a short week for both teams as they play Thursday. I give the edge to NE because of Brady and Belichick, who are more adept at game planning and learning/implementing a new plan (e.g. in a short week) than Rex Ryan's group.

That Sunday night game, Ball-So-Hard at the Jail Break, something like 7 Pro Bowlers on the sidelines with injuries. In the last half of the last quarter I thought the Steelers would have been better off with Charlie Batch at QB because Leftwich was not able to get the ball down field on long throws. He was obviously hurting (looked like right side of his ribs... I think reports are he has 2 cracked ribs and is out in week 12). He just could not get any mustard on the ball, which ended up falling short on several plays. Enter Charlie Batch (if big Ben is not ready to go) for week 12 at Cleveland.

Tonight's tilt, Bears @ SF, Alex Smith is ruled out with lingering effects from the concussion. Smith says, "it comes and goes". He failed the exertion part of the concussion tests yesterday. Bring in Colin Kapernick (don't ask me to spell that name). Kap has been productive in spot duty, but the Bears will surely try to pressure him. Kap is pretty athletic and can move, so we will see. I agree it will be important that SF not fall far behind and have to play catch up ball. No matter which QBs play, both teams are going to need to run the ball. SF has played poorly at stopping the run the past month, mostly because the SF LBs are not stuffing the gaps. SF LBs have been sitting back, hesitating, and are being engaged by the opposing OLinemen 3 to 4 yards downfield. If they continue to do that, Bears RBs will feast on that. Watch the SF LBs tonight and see how they play... that could be the difference in controlling the ball and the game.

Last and least, my old avatar is back... all because of the WSU head coach/player situation. Marquis Wilson (their star WR who voluntarily left the team over abusive treatment by HC Mike Leach) may be a head case. But Wilson's public explanation for his departure sounds anything but. He sounded mature and measured. That plus the public belittling statements by the HC make it look bad for coach Leach. That certainly can't help the recruiting efforts coming up. I look for former Oregon Duck AD, and current WSU AD, Bill Moos to sort it out properly. Moos, also a former WSU OLinemen from the 70's, was well liked in Oregon for the job he did their. So, I have hope.

Last edited by on3m@n@rmy; 11-19-12 at 21:24.
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  #1823  
Old 11-19-12, 22:09
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Alpe d'Huez Alpe d'Huez is offline
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Thanks for the thoughtful post. I have no faith in the Jets winning any games, let alone against NE. I don't care that NE is banged up. The Jets beat the Rams because of very poor play on the Rams part. Watch the highlights, you'll see. Int's, bad fumbles, missed tackles. The Jets played okay, but the Rams did not look like the Jeff Fisher team that was improving.

Ed Reed has been suspended for illegal hits, and after yesterday's brutal game against the Steelers, I'm not shocked. I recall Eddie George once said the Titans played Pittsburgh one week, and Baltimore the next. After that it was as if half their team was in the training room the rest of the season. And the Titans were a tough team back then. Who does Pittsburgh have as their practice QB? Dennis Dixon? Ben didn't look anywhere near ready to play. The Steelers have a great team, with great coaches. But the injuries may just keep even them from getting far this season.

I have written about Colin Kap before. He came into the NFL two years ago with a strong arm and very good accuracy, but the knock on him was that when primary targets were covered he'd adjust too late, hurry to throw into bad coverage, or just take off and run. He still may be prone to that. But he has the tools, size and mental capacity to be a starting NFL quarterback, and may land somewhere next season. But he'll be really tested tonight. I still like the 49ers chances at home here.

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Originally Posted by gobuck View Post
not my pick but,..... why never?
He's a Saints fan. Big rivalry there. It's like asking a Steelers fan to be happy the Ravens are playing well. Not. Going. To. Happen.

The irony of that is the Saints may be on a real roll and get into the playoffs as a WC. I'm sure they'd love to spoil Atlanta's entire season with that.
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  #1824  
Old 11-20-12, 00:53
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Originally Posted by Alpe d'Huez View Post
I'm currently 10-3, so not too bad. Some thoughts on games:

The Cowboys win again, but this Thursday against RGIII will be interesting. The NFC East is still up for grabs, especially with the Giants playing poorly of late. Any of these teams could win that division, and this Thursday's winner will take a big step.

Speaking of RGIII, a week after I write his team off and espouse how great Andrew Luck is, RGIII has a nearly perfect game, 4 TD's, with an incredibly precise TD throw 65 yards in the air. Simply astounding! If you haven't seen the hi-light, look it up on NFL.com.
I am currently perched on the unprecedented lofty heights of 12-1!

You should see how grown men in Skins forums are carrying on! They, and I, are practically in love with the kid. He really is phenomenal, and just so much fun to watch, despite the fact that the 65 yd bomb should really have been a pick. You just don't know what will happen when he drops back, absolutely anything is possible. As I've said before, we live in the hope that maybe over the next three seasons or so, they can build a team around him that is worthy of him. This kid could seriously develop into the next Peyton, but then a Peyton+. He's certainly got the brains and instinct, and one hell of a lot of talent!

The return of Merriweather made a big difference, but if I"m honest, it was a pretty poor game. We weren't 'good', it's just that the Eagles were so appallingly bad. They really did suck big time.

Looking forward tremendously to the Thanksgiving game at the Cowgirls, but as luck would have it, I have a long standing engagement to go to a concert that evening. The tivo will be on, and I hope to be home in time for the second half live.

It's going to be a push to get anywhere near Cam's passing because of how RG3 is being used by the Shanahans, but he should have the rush yards in another couple of weeks.

2,000 pass yards, 500 rush yards in rookie year

Rookie Quarterback Pass Yards Rush Yards

Cam Newton, CAR, 2011 4,051 706

Vince Young, TEN, 2006 2,199 552

Robert Griffin III, WAS, 2012 2,173 584
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  #1825  
Old 11-20-12, 01:04
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Hohohoho. Well said on that No-Falc-Fan answer.... "Not... Going... To... Happen".

Ed Reed is appealing the suspension, and some teammates/coaches of his (and even some Steelers players) are saying they are surprised at the suspension because they do not feel Reed "intended" to harm receiver Emmanuel Sanders. But folks need to understand that the definition of a defenseless player does not include the word "intent" (see the definition here... LINK). Like it or not, agree with it or not, that's the rule that is here to stay.

The other factor in the suspension is that Reed has a history (this is his 3rd offense) of defenseless player hits going back to 2010 (Link).

Some think hits like Reed's against Sanders are impossible to prevent. In some cases maybe so. Bleacher's has a good discussion of that point complete with game video (Bleach Link). But I disagree with the Bleacher reporter that Reed's hit was not preventable. Reed had plenty of approach distance and just needed to come in, or aim, lower. I don't know if the reporter ever played the game, but retired players like Teddy Bruschi believe hits like that are preventable, at least to some degree. I don't have the link to Bruschi's explanation of how that happens at game speed, but it was out there at one time (Oct 19 2010 "ESPN analyst Tedy Bruschi demonstrates how players will need to adjust their tackling styles and target points in order to avoid head-to-head hits").
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  #1826  
Old 11-20-12, 07:20
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Merckx index Merckx index is offline
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OK, I take back what I said about Kaepernik being the new Tim Tebow. He’s the new RGIII! He’s played the equivalent of about two whole games this season. Here’s his stat line, compared to the Wizard of Washington:

QB PA PC YDS % Y/A TD Int. Y/G Effic.

CK 49 32 449 65.3 9.16 2 0 224.5 108.3
RG 277 186 2193 67.1 7.9 12 3 219.3 101.0


He’s also rushed for 189 yards in 25 carries (7.56 per carry), vs. 613 in 93 carries (6.59 per carry) for RGIII. CK’s rushing total is a little misleading, though, because until the Rams game last week, he mostly played in the wildcat formation, where he quite frequently ran. Still, against the Rams, where he played a somewhat more conventional QB from the early second quarter on, he rushed for 66 yards. I think he’s in a small group of QBs, including RGIII, Newton and (a healthy) Vick, who in effect can add a second RB to their team’s offense.

Still, I think his success against the Bears, one of the best defenses in the NFL, was due in large part to the same reason I think RGIII is having so much success. It’s hard for teams used to playing week in, week out against a standard offense to handle a QB that plays a somewhat different offense. I think the same underlay a lot of Tebow’s success with Denver last year. I expect over time, teams will learn to adjust to a somewhat different type of play. And though Kap’s performance can only add to the QB controversy in SF, I still think the team is stronger with Alex Smith. But it has to be very comforting to the team to know that if Smith is out for an extended period of time, or if he should come back only to go down again during playoff crunch time, that the backup is capable of moving the offense.

How good is the 49er defense? Can't ask for a better test than next week, when they meet the red hot Saints in NO. The Saints remember the tough playoff loss in SF last year, and if that weren't motivation enough, they will probably have to win 5 of their final 6 to make the playoffs this year. This has all the makings of the game of the week, a real tough one to pick. But if the 49ers don't suffer a letdown from the Bears game, they should win, exploiting a defense that is nowhere near as good as the offense.

As for the Bears, they must be thinking déjà vu. Last year I think they were 7-3 when Cutler went down. They lost most of their remaining games, and missed the playoffs. They acquired Campbell specifically to avoid that, and he didn’t deliver against the 49ers. But I expect them to rebound, Campbell is a decent QB, and their defense can keep them in most games. But there are several 6-4 teams in the NFC now breathing down their necks for the 2d WC spot, along with the Saints.

Last edited by Merckx index; 11-20-12 at 07:32.
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  #1827  
Old 11-20-12, 07:37
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on3m@n@rmy on3m@n@rmy is offline
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Yeah, MI. I said same thing... wow wow wow about Kaep! I was really impressed. Look out Alex Smith. I was also impressed what SF was doing with blocking schemes, especially how they used TE #46 Del Walker as a blocker. Devastating! SF just was super dialed in offensively and defensively. They got after the Bears QB and made the Bears OL look bad.
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  #1828  
Old 11-20-12, 07:56
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Kaepernick sure looked awesome, and better than even I credited him for. He was on the post-game show and was smart to give credit where it was due, to the OL, and defense, and coaches. I can't imagine he'll move into the starter's job, but as you say, it gives them an option to be comfortable if Smith is hurt. As an aside to that, if Smith does perform poorly in the playoffs, and the 49ers are eliminated as such, it is going to create real controversy in SF.

The Bears will bounce back, but they've only beaten one team with a winning record (Indy, in week 1). I think they need Cutler back, and they've got to get back to mixing things up on defense. They cannot rely on turnovers, as we've talked about before.

Quote:
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Oct 19 2010 "ESPN analyst Tedy Bruschi demonstrates how players will need to adjust their tackling styles and target points in order to avoid head-to-head hits").
I don't know if it was Bruschi, but one person said when a defender comes at a player with his arms tucked in, as opposed to open, it's a sure fire sign that the defender is trying to "hammer" the offensive player, as opposed to just stopping them, or breaking up a play. If you look at Reed's hit on Sanders, that's exactly what he was trying to do: hammer him to dislodge the football and send a message to him. He made no attempt to prevent the catch, and no attempt to tackle Sanders. Arms in, shoulders and head down, drive into the guy, partly with the helmet. This is the way Jack Tatum used to play for example. Reed can appeal all he likes, he's going to lose the appeal (games anyway, money perhaps not).

As to RGIII, if you look at that 65+ yard (in the air) bomb, I'd argue he put the ball into Moss hands between two defenders. Very few QB's in the NFL could do that. There was some luck involved, great jump and hands by Moss, and throwing into double coverage is rarely wise, but he did toss a very long pass for a TD that's going to make some highlight reels for time to come.
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  #1829  
Old 11-20-12, 08:22
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Originally Posted by Alpe d'Huez View Post
I don't know if it was Bruschi, but one person said when a defender comes at a player with his arms tucked in, as opposed to open, it's a sure fire sign that the defender is trying to "hammer" the offensive player, as opposed to just stopping them, or breaking up a play. If you look at Reed's hit on Sanders, that's exactly what he was trying to do: hammer him to dislodge the football and send a message to him.
This is true. OFC they are always trying to slobber-knocker the opponents. But I would guess it is not with intent to harm most of the time. (I did not say hurt... they always want it to hurt). We see this kind of tackling technique (actually it is not a technique, but more of forgetting technique) in the NFL and college all the time where a tackler forgets how to tackle and wrap up... and a sure sign of wrapping up is just the opposite of the hammer hit. A guy wrapping up comes in with arms spread, and many times breaking down to cover the jukes, instead of arms in like a missile. We see so many missed tackles as a result where the ball carrier often gets extra yards. That kind of sloppy tackling can be infuriating.... Anyways, back to your point... maybe a rule change on tackling is necessary to stop (or cut down on) illegal hits. How about making a rule that all tackles have to be wrap-ups, or make it illegal to come in arms in like a missile? That would not stop leading with the helmet or improper aim, but would cut down on some illegal hits mostly from the side I think. Just a thought.
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  #1830  
Old 11-22-12, 00:23
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I'll start with tomorrow's games for now, and post the others before Sunday.

HOU @ DET - I can't convince myself that this will be one of the upsets of this round. Texans first team to 10.

WAS @ DAL - A do or die game for both teams. My pick is no surprise!

NE @ NYJ - Despite the Jets ****ing me up for a perfect score last week, no way do I see them taking Brady down.

Have a fine day with your families tomorrow, try not to gorge yourselves too much.
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