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  #71  
Old 11-19-12, 22:42
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Pentacycle Pentacycle is offline
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I dont agree. We saw his climbing abilities in CdF and Peyresourde (Evans stopped him in La Toussuire, when probably he had legs to stay with the chasing group) Of course he showed a climbing level in the TdF that he never has showed previously. Maybe only in Alpe D'Huez (Dauphine 2010) and in Malhao. But i think he has the talent as a complete climber.
Although this could belong in the Tour thread, think of Tejay as a TT specialist with good climbing. Of the 11'04'' he lost to Wiggins in GC he lost only 3'40'' in TT's, but he lost 7 minutes(incl. helping Evans ofc) in the mountains. Compare it to JVDB, who only lost about 2 and a half to Wiggins outside of TT's, and without his chain drop before La Planche it would have been 1 minute. So in a normal Tour like 2010 Van Garderen would have lost about 5 minutes to JVDB, which would have been an 8th-9th place. I might be wrong because I missed a lot of stages this Tour, but having seen him drop like a stone on Peyresourde, it wasn't like seeing the next Tour winner. Dombrowski imo on the other hand has the talent to one day bring the yellow jersey home.
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Next year could be the same as the Giro '13; Nibali rides a phenomenal first week, but after that there's just no one around who has any hope of taking time back.
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  #72  
Old 11-19-12, 23:07
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Dombrowski and Aru will do some things like Pinot and Quintana this year. Obviously not a Top10 in the TDF with a stage victory or show the climb level of Valverde and Purito but yes important things. I expect Dombrowski will be the third best climber of Sky until finish 2013. Not mentioned Andrea Palini and Danny Van Poppel.
Danny van Poppel indeed has had some very impressive results in U23 last year, but he won't even be 20 until mid-summer next year. I don't remember any teenager in recent years really having results, save I guess Sagan at the very start of his first season in the TDU (but even he had turned 20 by the time Paris-Nice rolled around). I think DvP will need at least another year before he starts impressing at the pro races.
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  #73  
Old 11-19-12, 23:25
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Originally Posted by Pentacycle View Post
Although this could belong in the Tour thread, think of Tejay as a TT specialist with good climbing. Of the 11'04'' he lost to Wiggins in GC he lost only 3'40'' in TT's, but he lost 7 minutes(incl. helping Evans ofc) in the mountains. Compare it to JVDB, who only lost about 2 and a half to Wiggins outside of TT's, and without his chain drop before La Planche it would have been 1 minute. So in a normal Tour like 2010 Van Garderen would have lost about 5 minutes to JVDB, which would have been an 8th-9th place. I might be wrong because I missed a lot of stages this Tour, but having seen him drop like a stone on Peyresourde, it wasn't like seeing the next Tour winner. Dombrowski imo on the other hand has the talent to one day bring the yellow jersey home.
Of course in a route like 2010 Van Garderen dont have any possibilities. But in a route with 100 kms of ITT i think he will be a contender. We havent seen his 100% yet. He lost the most of the time in Belles Filles and Porrentruy, probably didnt arrived in top form. In La Toussuire stage i think he had the level to stay with the chasing group (based on the previous ascent of the Croix de Fer) in the Bagneres de Luchon stage he arrived with Valverde or Van Den Broeck. Only Froome, Wiggins and Nibali ahead. And in the last mountain stage was so close after the best climbers. This year he has demonstrated a great level in the Time trial. Maybe one of the the three best tt's GC contenders? Hes 24. IMO he has a big margin of improvement as a climber. Probably in a few years he will be the best time triallist of the GT riders and one of the best climbers. It wouldnt be
enough for win a GT which suite his conditions?

Last edited by Jason_Mercier; 11-19-12 at 23:46.
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  #74  
Old 11-19-12, 23:43
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I wrote "losed" wow Let me edit one more time. Sorry for my english. In few words for me Van Garderen will be an important option in routes which suits time trial riders.
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  #75  
Old 11-20-12, 09:45
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Ryo Hazuki Ryo Hazuki is offline
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Dombrowski and Aru will do some things like Pinot and Quintana this year. Obviously not a Top10 in the TDF with a stage victory or show the climb level of Valverde and Purito but yes important things. I expect Dombrowski will be the third best climber of Sky until finish 2013. Not mentioned Andrea Palini and Danny Van Poppel.
dombrowski yes, aru. no. also he won't be better than froome and henao next year. henao is improving a lot again his climbing (losing weight)
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  #76  
Old 11-20-12, 11:49
searmh searmh is offline
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steel van hoff
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  #77  
Old 11-20-12, 14:50
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dombrowski yes, aru. no. also he won't be better than froome and henao next year. henao is improving a lot again his climbing (losing weight)
What was Henao's weight this year then? I thought he already was 61 kgs or so. If he's going to be even leaner/stronger/better next year he should be a GT leader instead of endlessly pulling for Froome/Wiggins.

And I also don't get the Aru hype. He has to prove a lot more among the pros than Dombrowski. This is the problems with all Italians basically, for example I didn't get why so many people expected Moser to be the next big thing, just because of results in minor domestic races. Italians only perform on home soil, but still they get all the hype. Could be just my problem ofc.
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  #78  
Old 11-20-12, 14:54
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Ryo Hazuki Ryo Hazuki is offline
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What was Henao's weight this year then? I thought he already was 61 kgs or so. If he's going to be even leaner/stronger/better next year he should be a GT leader instead of endlessly pulling for Froome/Wiggins.

And I also don't get the Aru hype. He has to prove a lot more among the pros than Dombrowski. This is the problems with all Italians basically, for example I didn't get why so many people expected Moser to be the next big thing, just because of results in minor domestic races. Italians only perform on home soil, but still they get all the hype. Could be just my problem ofc.
henao was 170x62 kg. until few years ago he was 58/57 kg. of course it's also his natural physical evolution he's had. he is build as a sprinter. but I noticed him in the vuelta already looking lighter and most important of all. he is changing his gearing again. with botero and antioquia he started riding very heavy gears, which improved many of his elements except he really blew in steeper climbs. especially his last year in colombia henao was an average climber he dropped hard in all of the big climbs in colombia and was basically nowhere to win vuelta or rcn. while as a junior and first years as u23(cep) he was a pure climber, riding light gears, very explosive. in burgos, the stage chaves won I saw him riding much lighter gears which means he's a lot better in steep climbs now. sky are obviously working hard with him to improve all of this. that's why I expect a big step forward next year. also in itt

Last edited by Ryo Hazuki; 11-20-12 at 15:03.
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  #79  
Old 11-20-12, 15:01
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Originally Posted by Pentacycle View Post
What was Henao's weight this year then? I thought he already was 61 kgs or so. If he's going to be even leaner/stronger/better next year he should be a GT leader instead of endlessly pulling for Froome/Wiggins.

And I also don't get the Aru hype. He has to prove a lot more among the pros than Dombrowski. This is the problems with all Italians basically, for example I didn't get why so many people expected Moser to be the next big thing, just because of results in minor domestic races. Italians only perform on home soil, but still they get all the hype. Could be just my problem ofc.
with italian u23 riders you should always look to what team they rode as u23. aru rode with pallazago, the most doped team in italian u23 cycling probably. I will wait to see how much he's worth as a pro. he would be the first rider ever from palazzago to break through as a pro. other than doping, which I admitt has been reduced a lot in recent years in italy, is the focus of the big amateur teams. they want results and don';t care about developping talents. palazzago and also zalf are good examples of this. by the time a rider becomes pro they are basically finished.

moser rode with lucchini, a much saver team I think.
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  #80  
Old 11-20-12, 17:32
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Bye Bye Bicycle Bye Bye Bicycle is offline
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No one hyped Moser before turning pro. He was expected to be a talent, but there was no hype.

Aru has been far too consistent over the last years to simple disappear now as pro. Dombrowski has seen bigger discrepancies between his peak appearences and the lower ones.

So I don't see that big a difference in their PED probability. They're even in this matter I would say.

Lucchini by the way disappeared from amateur cycling after 2010's doping scandal at the Baby Giro. Not quite "safe".
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