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  #591  
Old 12-03-12, 16:43
sniper sniper is online now
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...snipped...
i don't have the know-how to follow your arguments.

my whole point was that this was a 1+1=2 case, and that no complicated formulas (such as yours above) were needed to understand what had really happened.
a straightforward case.
we know Dirty used clen post-Dauphine. We know he transfused on the TdF restday.
If your pharmacokinetic calculations don't match this hypothesis, I'd suggest you revisit your dataset.

Iirc, Ashenden had no problems with a plasma transfusion theory. Au contraire.

Last edited by sniper; 12-03-12 at 18:14.
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  #592  
Old 12-03-12, 17:12
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LaFlorecita LaFlorecita is offline
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Apart from the fact that it is close to impossible. I suppose you are aware of the implications of the pharmacokinetics involved and the contents of WADA-theory? Firstly, the plasma (because it's a plasma transfusion that, in that scenario, should have triggered the clen positive) couldn't have come from Contador himself. The amounts you have to take are way to high for an athlete, if not toxic (especially for a small guy like Contador), and combined with length of treatment he would have been a certain positive for over a month. It's therefore that the idea of a malicious or stupid plasma donor was brought assumed by WADA, to make the theory stick.

Secondly, withdrawing blood after dauphiné doesn't really favor separation of RBC and plasma (which is the theory in this case, and necessary to explain the separated findings of and clenbuterol, for example) but does favor whole blood transfusion - which is more convenient in cycling, like the use of saline instead of plasma.

Thirdly, the 1 pg/ml clen (blood sample) finding in the morning doesn't correspond with the 50 pg/ml urine finding later that day, and doesn't favor intravenous administration as the most likely cause of the clenbuterol positive. An eventual plasma transfusion, in this theory, would take place before the blood test (to manipulate - lower - Ht and Hb) and if it was the cause of the clenbuterol, you'd expect the finding to be much and much higher.
Very interesting
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  #593  
Old 12-03-12, 17:32
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I don't quite get one elementary thing. Do probes show main blood values or not? Lance laid out his blood values after the 2009 Tour being absolutely confident in his impunity. Armstrong's hc went up by 2-3 points straight before Mont Ventoux. Obvious blood doping. Why can't uci implement such an easier procedure to catch dopers? Or??? Then they should have kicked half peloton away from the race?

Last edited by airstream; 12-03-12 at 17:58.
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  #594  
Old 12-03-12, 17:53
Grandillusion Grandillusion is offline
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Originally Posted by LaFlorecita View Post
Very interesting
Is Dr Ashenden in agreement with Nillson's take on this though?

Who has the most credible haematological analysis credentials, and the requisite objectivity?

Genuinely interested, not suggesting Nillson has any lack of objectivity or dearth of blood analysis qualifications.
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  #595  
Old 12-03-12, 18:02
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Originally Posted by Grandillusion View Post
Is Dr Ashenden in agreement with Nillson's take on this though?

Who has the most credible haematological analysis credentials, and the requisite objectivity?

Genuinely interested, not suggesting Nillson has any lack of objectivity or dearth of blood analysis qualifications.
"very interesting" is LaFlorecita's way of saying "wtf is that guy talking about?"
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  #596  
Old 12-03-12, 18:03
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DirtyWorks DirtyWorks is offline
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Originally Posted by airstream View Post
I don't quite get one elementary thing. Do probes show main blood values or not? Lance laid out his blood values after the 2009 Tour being absolutely confident in his impunity. Armstrong's hc went up by 2-3 points straight before Mont Ventoux. Obvious blood doping. Why can't implement such an easier procedure to catch dopers? Or??? Then they should have kicked half peloton away from the race?
Two things I can contribute without any blood biology knowledge.

#1 If JV is to be believed in one of his posts he claims results vary anyway. Is the rider dehydrated at test time was one possible factor he threw out.

#2 Testing for many PED compounds is not a True/False outcome. There tends to be a range of results from negative->suspicious->positive. In those results, is a strong bias against a false positive so result ranged in suspicious are probably real-world positives. The probability of a false negative is not well known, but some research suggests it is very high for EPO-like drugs at WADA certified labs.

Finally, Clenbuterol just happens to be a compound that does not occur naturally in the body. It's a rare true/false test. The precision of which apparently surprised Contador's doping program manager.
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  #597  
Old 12-03-12, 18:10
Grandillusion Grandillusion is offline
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Originally Posted by sniper View Post
"very interesting" is LaFlorecita's way of saying "wtf is that guy talking about?"
Yeah I know, but she seems sweet, & anyway I ain't no haematologist either so can't really comment on Nillson's expertise
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  #598  
Old 12-03-12, 18:19
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Yeah I know, but she seems sweet, & anyway I ain't no haematologist either so can't really comment on Nillson's expertise
she seems sweet, indeed.
she's a wolf in sheep's clothes.

Last edited by sniper; 12-03-12 at 18:24.
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  #599  
Old 12-03-12, 18:28
Grandillusion Grandillusion is offline
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she seems sweet, indeed.
she's a wolf in sheep's clothes.
I'll learn I'm sure. Giving the benefit of the doubt until bitten
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  #600  
Old 12-03-12, 18:57
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This is about as bad as having Bugno representing today's clean riders.
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