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  #601  
Old 12-03-12, 19:08
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LaFlorecita LaFlorecita is offline
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Originally Posted by sniper View Post
"very interesting" is LaFlorecita's way of saying "wtf is that guy talking about?"
I'm not stupid
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  #602  
Old 12-03-12, 19:09
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Yeah I know, but she seems sweet, & anyway I ain't no haematologist either so can't really comment on Nillson's expertise
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she seems sweet, indeed.
she's a wolf in sheep's clothes.
Thanks guys
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  #603  
Old 12-03-12, 19:27
Nilsson Nilsson is offline
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Originally Posted by Grandillusion View Post
Is Dr Ashenden in agreement with Nillson's take on this though?

Who has the most credible haematological analysis credentials, and the requisite objectivity?

Genuinely interested, not suggesting Nillson has any lack of objectivity or dearth of blood analysis qualifications.
I guess you are missing a very important nuance. Ashenden, however, does not. In the interview (I guess you posted again recently, IIRC) he had to stipulate this very delicate problem himself multiple times, because the interviewer didn't get it.

It's a two step theoryl. Firstly, you have to establish a transfusion, or (more corectly, if it is not clear, like in this case) if a blood transfusion could have been possible. Secondly, how it clarifies the presence of clenbuterol in the urine sample (mainly the pharmacokinetics of clenbuterol - in the light of a transfusion. In other words: how many clen should have been ingested to get a certain amount of clenbuterol in a urine sample, and is this possible through transfusion). You need both steps to be able to conclude a transfusion is the most likely scenario. A (possible) transfusion alone doesn't explain the presence of clenbuterol, it also has to be possible that

Ashenden solely looked at the first question, and concluded that however he could not say there has been a transfusion, a transfusion could have been possible. Also, he has an (supporting) opinion about the the first part of the second step, namely that it would have required a separate transfusion (of RBC in a DEHP bag on day one, explaining the high level of plasticizers, and plasma in a non-DEHP bag the day after, containing the clenbuterol) to explain the findings.
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  #604  
Old 12-03-12, 19:58
Nilsson Nilsson is offline
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I don't quite get one elementary thing. Do probes show main blood values or not? Lance laid out his blood values after the 2009 Tour being absolutely confident in his impunity. Armstrong's hc went up by 2-3 points straight before Mont Ventoux. Obvious blood doping. Why can't uci implement such an easier procedure to catch dopers? Or??? Then they should have kicked half peloton away from the race?
It's mainly a matter of mathematics, Bayesian statistics (and probabilities) to be exact. Key point (from a legal point of view) is the 'acceptable' probability of a false-positive.

The passport works with all kinds of parameters (Ht, Hb, retics, etc.) and calculations. Main goal is to find constellations that are not normal. One very important one is the OFF-hr score, a ratio of hemoglobin to reticulocytes (the calculation is Hb in g/l - 60 (square root of the reticulocyte percentage)) through which you could identify both the withdrawal and re-infusion of blood (or RBC).

≥ 116,7: 1/100 false positive
≥ 125,6: 1/1000 ""
≥ 133,2: 1/10000 ""

A limit of 99.9 percent, which is 1:1000 false positive, is considered to be legally acceptable. Some 'private passports' (Mapei Center, Damsgaard, Garmin), however, work with tighter limits.

Last edited by Nilsson; 12-03-12 at 20:01.
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  #605  
Old 12-03-12, 21:04
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Originally Posted by airstream View Post
I don't quite get one elementary thing. Do probes show main blood values or not? Lance laid out his blood values after the 2009 Tour being absolutely confident in his impunity. Armstrong's hc went up by 2-3 points straight before Mont Ventoux. Obvious blood doping. Why can't uci implement such an easier procedure to catch dopers? Or??? Then they should have kicked half peloton away from the race?
There's a formula! IF you're within 3 STDEVs of your average Hgb, then any jumps like that are attributed to:

lab error
handling errors
natural variations

just ask JV about Ryder's blood values for an example...
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Last edited by Dear Wiggo; 12-03-12 at 21:25.
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  #606  
Old 12-03-12, 21:20
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Originally Posted by Nilsson View Post
It's mainly a matter of mathematics, Bayesian statistics (and probabilities) to be exact. Key point (from a legal point of view) is the 'acceptable' probability of a false-positive.

The passport works with all kinds of parameters (Ht, Hb, retics, etc.) and calculations. Main goal is to find constellations that are not normal. One very important one is the OFF-hr score, a ratio of hemoglobin to reticulocytes (the calculation is Hb in g/l - 60 (square root of the reticulocyte percentage)) through which you could identify both the withdrawal and re-infusion of blood (or RBC).

≥ 116,7: 1/100 false positive
≥ 125,6: 1/1000 ""
≥ 133,2: 1/10000 ""

A limit of 99.9 percent, which is 1:1000 false positive, is considered to be legally acceptable. Some 'private passports' (Mapei Center, Damsgaard, Garmin), however, work with tighter limits.
I did a table of OFF-hr scores earlier - and concluded rightly or wrongly that it was useless as a means of detecting doping of any sort.

Eg:
1. jam a bunch of EPO in there, boosting retics, and your off-hr score goes down.
- retic production is delayed
2. grab a blood transfusion, boosting your Hgb, and your off-hr score goes down.
- retic reduction is delayed

Do both, and OFF-hr score not only goes down by even more, but your natural reduction in retics due to the transfusion is mitigated.

Here's the graph.



You have to be jamming up against the obvious doping limits of 17g/dL Hgb (~51% Hct) and 0.2% retics (blood transfusion) that ping you without any formulae before OFF-hr score gets a look in.

You seem knowledgable, and I have had a few people crack the sads at me for this graph - JV and Krebs Cycle for starters, usually accompanied with "thanks for proving my point" or "ur ignorant".

I am very curious how the OFF-hr score is important, as you claim.

As an example: you could have 18g/dL Hgb, dliuted with saline to drop your Hct below 50%, and pump in X amount of EPO to boost your retics to 1.9% and your OFF-hr score is now a very safe and respectable 97.

If you have used EPO for most of your professional career and have a good handle on your body's response to EPO use, I am guessing getting the dosage right would be doable.
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Last edited by Dear Wiggo; 12-03-12 at 21:24.
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  #607  
Old 12-03-12, 21:53
Grandillusion Grandillusion is offline
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Originally Posted by Dazed and Confused View Post
This is about as bad as having Bugno representing today's clean riders.
Lopez Cerron's election? I know, it's crazy isn't it? A parallel world these people live in, utterly oblivious it seems. Talk about the need for cultural change... if Greg gets in he'll sure have his work cut out with these dudes.

Last edited by Grandillusion; 12-03-12 at 21:56.
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  #608  
Old 12-04-12, 01:45
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Apart from the fact that it is close to impossible. I suppose you are aware of the implications of the pharmacokinetics involved and the contents of WADA-theory? Firstly, the plasma (because it's a plasma transfusion that, in that scenario, should have triggered the clen positive) couldn't have come from Contador himself. The amounts you have to take are way to high for an athlete, if not toxic (especially for a small guy like Contador), and combined with length of treatment he would have been a certain positive for over a month. It's therefore that the idea of a malicious or stupid plasma donor was brought assumed by WADA, to make the theory stick.
This is not quite true. Too many people swallowed the propaganda of Bert’s team. One can estimate a maximum dose of 200-500 ng of CB (via transfusion) to account for the test results. If this were present in a typical transfusion, it would indicate a blood concentration of roughly 0.05 = 0.1 ng/ml. This corresponds to a single oral dose of roughly 100 micrograms, well within normally tolerated amounts, or a daily regimen of somewhat lower doses. Urine values for this dose would peak at 1-2 ng/ml, at or below the sensitivity and minimum standard for many labs. Bert was tested on average of less than once per month during the critical period. So it would have been possible, even likely, for him to beat a test. The big question is whether he would take that risk, not knowing in advance when he would be tested. That is where the problem with this scenario occurs, and was why WADA produced the anonymous donor scenario, a mistake IMO.

Quote:
Secondly, withdrawing blood after dauphiné doesn't really favor separation of RBC and plasma (which is the theory in this case, and necessary to explain the separated findings of and clenbuterol, for example) but does favor whole blood transfusion - which is more convenient in cycling, like the use of saline instead of plasma.
True, though apparently riders often separate cells and plasma even for short term storage. However, WADA was committed to a scenario involving a much earlier withdrawal, not in June.

Quote:
Thirdly, the 1 pg/ml clen (blood sample) finding in the morning doesn't correspond with the 50 pg/ml urine finding later that day, and doesn't favor intravenous administration as the most likely cause of the clenbuterol positive. An eventual plasma transfusion, in this theory, would take place before the blood test (to manipulate - lower - Ht and Hb) and if it was the cause of the clenbuterol, you'd expect the finding to be much and much higher.
There isn’t any inconsistency in these numbers. At one time I thought there was, but I later acknowledged an error. The urine values are typically much higher than the blood values, partly because drug is concentrated in the urine, and in large part because most of the source of the drug in urine is not the blood but in fat tissues. IOW, the amount of drug in blood is only the tip of the iceberg . The 1 pg/ml value probably favors oral administration, but it does not by itself make a compelling case (as I originally thought.)

In conclusion, while I still favor contaminated supplement (that could have passed all clean standards), the transfusion theory is quite possible. Particularly when you add the DEHP positive, which has virtually no other explanation.
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  #609  
Old 12-04-12, 09:14
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Thanks Nilsson and MI for pointing out that the Humo-story was by no means a per definition correct as sniper claimed.
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  #610  
Old 12-04-12, 09:41
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Thanks Nilsson and MI for pointing out that the Humo-story was by no means a per definition correct as sniper claimed.
I grant you that.
But there was no reason to dismiss it either, as many a poster did back then. Once you let the math-dogs out, you loose sight of what is right there in front of you.

I'm still LMAO. Aldirto thinking he was protected. What a cold shower he got.
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