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  #5621  
Old 12-13-12, 19:47
aphronesis aphronesis is offline
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Originally Posted by Scott SoCal View Post
Agreed. 'Leaders' are hardly an accurate descriptive but they need to be identified by something... how about 'jackasses?'



Entertainment value and not much else.

Really, when you strip it all down, if the economy continues to flat line, this country will collapse. When/if that happens, you and everyone else will wish that it hadn't. The collapse is preventable but not being prevented.
Mediocrities managers is the term I prefer; I suppose it's the same difference. But in either case, part of the reason that that is so is that the political career as recently defined in this country doesn't offer much to those who might aspire to more.

You take your laughs as you can, I guess.

It won't collapse. It will restructure and move on. No way to test it, obviously, but I'd bet you that a wholesale dismantling of the US won't occur for at least two centuries. And not even then. Much more likely if Republicans continue to have their way peddling lies at a populist level, you'll see an increasingly stark division of rights and services between areas with material resources and those reliant on information economies. Hybrids and major economic areas maintaining the full gamut. Someone still has to mow the lawns.
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  #5622  
Old 12-13-12, 20:17
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Really, when you strip it all down, if the economy continues to flat line,
The US is one of only 3 countries that are projected to see increases in GDP from 2012 over 2011.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...iousprediction

The economy isn't flat lining, it's growing, albeit sluggishly. But hey, we can't allow reality to pop that conservative fantasyworld bubble where Obama's single-handedly destroying the economy, eh?

(But I do agree with you that economic collapse is quite possible, except that the underlying cause for it will be our unwillingness in the present to do anything about climate change. If you think spending is unsupportable now, just wait.)
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  #5623  
Old 12-13-12, 21:00
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The US is one of only 3 countries that are projected to see increases in GDP from 2012 over 2011.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...iousprediction

The economy isn't flat lining, it's growing, albeit sluggishly. But hey, we can't allow reality to pop that conservative fantasyworld bubble where Obama's single-handedly destroying the economy, eh?

(But I do agree with you that economic collapse is quite possible, except that the underlying cause for it will be our unwillingness in the present to do anything about climate change. If you think spending is unsupportable now, just wait.)

Ok. Let's see if we can look at this a different way.

Our GDP is roughly $15.3 Trillion, give or take. Annualized growth at 2% is a little over $300,000 billion.

Our national debt is now more than our GDP and our annual deficit is more than three times our projected growth for the year, which means our debt to GDP is accelerating.

In our current state, our GDP would need to be about 6% just to keep pace with the growth in debt.

If I can figure this out I'd assume Bernanke and Obama can.
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  #5624  
Old 12-13-12, 21:42
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Ok. Let's see if we can look at this a different way.

Our GDP is roughly $15.3 Trillion, give or take. Annualized growth at 2% is a little over $300,000 billion.

Our national debt is now more than our GDP and our annual deficit is more than three times our projected growth for the year, which means our debt to GDP is accelerating.

In our current state, our GDP would need to be about 6% just to keep pace with the growth in debt.

If I can figure this out I'd assume Bernanke and Obama can.
They can. They also know that it's a red herring - the debt in and of itself isn't the problem, it's the interest on the debt. As a percentage of GDP, interest payment on debt during the Reagan and Clinton years was never lower than 2% and even during the Clinton boom years it was closer to 3%. The debt burden isn't considered unsustainable until interest payments are around 7%. We're not anywhere near that - it was 1.5% in 2011. Even in terms of debt-to-GDP ratio, it was much, much higher during WWII than it is today.

The problem is actually the opposite: the debt is too small - we haven't spent enough to kickstart the economy.
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  #5625  
Old 12-13-12, 22:10
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Grover's starting to get a little shrill.

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/1...35.html?hp=r12

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“Obama will be on a very short leash, fiscally speaking, over the next four years,” he said. “He’s not going to have any fun at all, he may just have to go blow up small countries he can’t pronounce because it won’t be any fun to be here, because he won’t be able to spend the kind of cash he was hoping to."
Aw that's cute. But wait just a second here, isn't Grover the same dude who wanted taxpayers to spend millions renaming national monuments and airports and $10 dollar bills and such after his personal hero Ronald Reagan?

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In 1997 Norquist launched the Ronald Reagan Legacy Project, a group whose purpose is to convince the government to spend millions of taxpayer dollars (ironically) on things like a Ronald Reagan memorial monument in Washington, DC. After Reagan finally died in 2004, Norquist kicked it into overdrive. In a June 2004 appearance on CNN's Inside Politics, Grover told host Judy Woodruff: "Alexander Hamilton has been on the $10 since 1928, he's been well honored by the country, he was a great secretary of the treasury. But of all the people on the currency, the only one who isn't a President." [well no, Ben Franklin on the $100 bill was never pres either]
Oh. Well. That's different.

But anyway, just out of curiosity, when have the Rs ever been on a "very short leash, fiscally speaking"?
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  #5626  
Old 12-13-12, 22:41
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They can. They also know that it's a red herring - the debt in and of itself isn't the problem, it's the interest on the debt. As a percentage of GDP, interest payment on debt during the Reagan and Clinton years was never lower than 2% and even during the Clinton boom years it was closer to 3%. The debt burden isn't considered unsustainable until interest payments are around 7%. We're not anywhere near that - it was 1.5% in 2011. Even in terms of debt-to-GDP ratio, it was much, much higher during WWII than it is today.

The problem is actually the opposite: the debt is too small - we haven't spent enough to kickstart the economy.
Parallel universe.

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it's the interest on the debt
Sure. Interest on 16 trillion is less than interest on 18 trillion unless rates go down and they are at historic lows now. They will only move one direction and it will be a higher rate on a larger number. In layman's terms, that's bad. Currently, the debt service is about $240 billion. Within a couple of years (if we keep growing at the rate Bernanke seems to think) the debt service will eclipse our growth and factor this; Interest rates will rise at some point.

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We're not anywhere near that - it was 1.5% in 2011.
How long will Treasury continue buying govt bonds? What happens when interest rates start edging up? What happens, now that Bernanke has indexed the monetization of debt to 6.5% unemployment, when unemployment falls below 6.5%? What happen when GDP start to dramatically improve (which may never happen) causing spikes in inflation? What happens if Europe recovers and the confidence in the dollar erodes globally?

Combinations or all of those things are likely to happen sooner rather than later. Global warming is the least of our worries.
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  #5627  
Old 12-14-12, 00:48
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Whoops.

The States seem to be taking their que from their low information electorate.

"F it. Let the gubment do it."

Only 15 States Opt to Run Obamacare Exchanges

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100311739
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  #5628  
Old 12-14-12, 15:07
aphronesis aphronesis is offline
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http://www.brainpickings.org/index.p...lliam-powhida/


BUT, I’ve come to some conclusions about ****. One is that we spend A LOT of time BLAMING each other for not understanding WHAT the problem actually is — TRANSPARENCY, Barack Obama, mandates LOBBYISTS, immigrants, RESPONSIBILITY, FREEDOM Truth, LIZARD PEOPLE, FLUORIDE in the water… TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE OF ANY OF IT.

I mean, everyone ALREADY has the Answer, it’s just that every ELSE just has ‘it’ all wrong. It’s really simple, apparently, to fix everything by applying some JESUS™, REGULATION®, or CONSTITUTION™ to it. If only we’d just free the Market, convict some bankers, spiritually channel the Founding Fathers, regulate derivatives, STOP eating GM corn syrup, spend more…time with your Family OR LEGALIZE DRUGS.

EXCEPT WE don’t do *****, because this is AMERICA, Land of the Mr. Softee® and home of the BRAVES® where we are FREE to ARGUE about the CAUSES of social and ECONOMIC inequalities until the grass-fed cows come home. We argue in comment threads, on Facebook™, and twitter™. AND, when we aren’t arguing, We agree with our favorite ‘experts’ on FOX®, CNBC™, and CNN™ as we slide into RECESSION 2.0.
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  #5629  
Old 12-14-12, 15:53
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Parallel universe.
um, no, it's the interest that goes on the books, not the debt itself. The debt itself is largely meaningless. So no, the biggest economic problem right now is not the debt, it's getting the sluggish economy going again. And the way to do that is an adrenaline injection, ie stimulus spending - big, big short-term spending.

Quote:
Sure. Interest on 16 trillion is less than interest on 18 trillion unless rates go down and they are at historic lows now. They will only move one direction and it will be a higher rate on a larger number. In layman's terms, that's bad. Currently, the debt service is about $240 billion. Within a couple of years (if we keep growing at the rate Bernanke seems to think) the debt service will eclipse our growth and factor this; Interest rates will rise at some point.

How long will Treasury continue buying govt bonds? What happens when interest rates start edging up? What happens, now that Bernanke has indexed the monetization of debt to 6.5% unemployment, when unemployment falls below 6.5%? What happen when GDP start to dramatically improve (which may never happen) causing spikes in inflation? What happens if Europe recovers and the confidence in the dollar erodes globally?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/pascalem...-now-not-ever/

There is no debt crisis, Scott. I keep pointing out that Boehner and the Rs had no problem with deficits and debt during the Bush administration and only started to balk when Obama became pres - they had no problem spending and cutting taxes and running up deficits because they are fully aware that there is no debt crisis. But after Obama was elected the right did a complete 180 and manufactured the debt crisis/omg Greece! to scare the bejeebus out of low information voters into believing that we're on the precipice of Greekdom because crazy tax-and-spend Obama is (even intends to, if you listen to some on the right) ruining the country by spending, spending, spending and running up the debt. Sure does sound scary, eh? And you guys bought it because you wanted to believe it.

But most of all, the right uses the specter of omg Greece! debt! as a way to justify slashing spending on the social programs they despise - if the debt is such a crisis, how come you guys never talk about cutting the massive, bloated defense budget, only social programs? Because that's what it's really about, isn't it.

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Global warming is the least of our worries.
If the economy is truly your main concern, climate change is by far the biggest of your worries. Low information voters just don't understand that.
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  #5630  
Old 12-14-12, 15:56
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rhubroma rhubroma is offline
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Originally Posted by aphronesis View Post
http://www.brainpickings.org/index.p...lliam-powhida/


BUT, I’ve come to some conclusions about ****. One is that we spend A LOT of time BLAMING each other for not understanding WHAT the problem actually is — TRANSPARENCY, Barack Obama, mandates LOBBYISTS, immigrants, RESPONSIBILITY, FREEDOM Truth, LIZARD PEOPLE, FLUORIDE in the water… TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE OF ANY OF IT.

I mean, everyone ALREADY has the Answer, it’s just that every ELSE just has ‘it’ all wrong. It’s really simple, apparently, to fix everything by applying some JESUS™, REGULATION®, or CONSTITUTION™ to it. If only we’d just free the Market, convict some bankers, spiritually channel the Founding Fathers, regulate derivatives, STOP eating GM corn syrup, spend more…time with your Family OR LEGALIZE DRUGS.

EXCEPT WE don’t do *****, because this is AMERICA, Land of the Mr. Softee® and home of the BRAVES® where we are FREE to ARGUE about the CAUSES of social and ECONOMIC inequalities until the grass-fed cows come home. We argue in comment threads, on Facebook™, and twitter™. AND, when we aren’t arguing, We agree with our favorite ‘experts’ on FOX®, CNBC™, and CNN™ as we slide into RECESSION 2.0.
Now that's some funny, witty sh!t...
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