Originally Posted by on3m@n@rmy
To the defense of the QBs, no QB can establish rhythm playing a snap or two or one series. That's mostly to Tebow's defense... Sanch has played more than enough to establish rhythm.
Here is a very good article about the life of backup QBS.
I was searching for an older article from nfl.com, but i "only" found the above linked one, which also describes it perfectly...
I can´t praise enough the quality of play of backup QBS...
The guys at PFR.com came up with the "1-win-above-replacements" for starting QBS.
I do my own reasearch now, since they did "cherry picking" (only counting teams above .500, etc.) which misleads the results towards the starters.
I am onto something (it looks so far)... there is almost no difference in (pass-)play efficiency and W-L record, no matter if the starter plays or not. That´s amazing, given the facts described in the linked article.
Conclusion: "Star"-QB´s are even more
overrated than I
ever thought (and i thought i was going the farthest to "discredit" the so called superstars). And that is something.
Finally, why do i do it? To defend my QB-Rankings.
Actually they are "wrong". But not in the case like some guys might think (that i should include Montana & PManning* for example), no, the other way around. I may should exclude Roethlisberger and re-think if i should not include guys like Jeff George or Steve Grogan (a guy who outperformed Eason, Cavanaugh and all the other NE-QBS of his era** almost every year, yet he wasn´t
always the starter with enough reps in practise!)...
* I excludecd PManning only b/c of his mega busts in the playoffs. Now the stat guys (like me
) could explain it away b/c of small sample sizes. But OTOH PManning just didn´t passed my
eye test (like Favre and Cunningham). Every time come playoff time he came out nervous (after his usual perfect games against DEN), throwing wobbling balls, being off target, being sacked more often,... things not seen during the RS. He even had terrible games in the SB-Year, where he had one good half (vs. NE; maybe b/c he thought "who cares, it´s too late, so just have fun now", so all his nervousness was gone).
Favre we all know didn´t win anything except the one year he had the best NFL-D (1996). The other seasons he threw ill advised PO-Ending-INT´s year after year.
Cunningham was also "special". Remember the NO-Game when he threw one hoppers one yard short of his targets (like McNabb used to have when nervous, but that´s another story). I couldn´t believe a guy with his talent & strength completely being lost and his arm melting like butter. Or the ATL-Game where he was so nervous late in the game that he even didn´t trust his self to throw to a wide open (Carter AFIR) WR in the EZ. Instead he gave the pressure to his K, who failed...
I have to agree with Alpe here; sometimes stats can´t explain everything, even tough numbers don´t lie.
** My reasearch i do now start with the 1980 season until last year.