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  #111  
Old 01-03-13, 10:34
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Originally Posted by ToreBear View Post
I don't think Petter is that bad uphill. But we still don't know how good Cologna is if he has to go all out. Last years race was not representative of what Petter can do on the last stage. He was exhausted after waxing mistakes on the 35k and 5k classic. Also the Norwegians did not have skiis at their usual level on the last stage. Hellner and Kershaw had much better skiis. But of course I think Hellner is much better on the uphill than Petter. I think Petter needs perhaps 30 seconds at the bottom of the hill to keep a Hellner in top form with good skiis behind him. Bauer is another matter.
i agree with these observations.

also, if i got the whiff of the norwegian media reporting on petter's preparation focus for THIS tds, he was de-emphesizing the importance of opening stages and concentrating on his endurance for the final stages...

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As for the Classic races, Northug is quite good in classic. His double polling has become really good, so unless there is another big mistake in the materials department he should be OK.
my comment was not to belittle northug's classic proficiency (his record speaks for itself) but to point that his competitors (including this tour's only classic race so far) seem to have found an antidote to petter's tactics. i also had in mind legkov's win in the last year tds short classic tt. it seems the competitors are aware of petter's vintage tactic of hanging on with the best to only outsprint them at the end.

we shall see a lot in just few hours
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  #112  
Old 01-03-13, 11:14
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The 35 km starts now. Should be the best race for us cycling fans as it's the only one that goes from A to B (not in circle!) and is of a reasonable length

I predict Northug will crack on the long ascent today. Cologna and the Russians will stay away.
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  #113  
Old 01-03-13, 12:08
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my impressions so far (about 50 minutes over and 20 to go):

- nortghug has not shown any signs of being cracked
- legkov closing the gap at the start so easily was impressive
- vyleg is cagily drafting a lot more than even northug
- the eurosport commentators, though quite competent, seem to NOT know that 91% of max HR is not the same as 91% of max aerobic effort (in fact, it's only about 85% of VO2 max)
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  #114  
Old 01-03-13, 12:12
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my impressions so far (about 50 minutes over and 20 to go):

- nortghug has not shown any signs of being cracked
- legkov closing the gap at the start so easily was impressive
- vyleg is cagily drafting a lot more than even northug
- the eurosport commentators, though quite competent, seem to NOT know that 91% of max HR is not the same as 91% of max aerobic effort (in fact, it's only about 85% of VO2 max)
Northug actually looked as if he were about to crack in the start of the climb. He had to leave a little gap and looked exhausted. But luckily for him, Cologna signalled for someone else to go through and the pace dropped, resulting in Northug recovering.
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  #115  
Old 01-03-13, 12:21
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Northug actually looked as if he were about to crack in the start of the climb. He had to leave a little gap and looked exhausted. But luckily for him, Cologna signalled for someone else to go through and the pace dropped, resulting in Northug recovering.
perhaps...but don't you think that if cologna sensed the weakness (or if he did not see it, he'd be told by the coaches) he'd accelerate at some point midclimb ?

i did however see northug v1-ing in the back at one point whilst cologna was comfortably v2-ing in front.
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  #116  
Old 01-03-13, 15:24
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i did however see northug v1-ing in the back at one point whilst cologna was comfortably v2-ing in front.
yup. thought northug was suffering there too, and perhaps he was. however, since northug did not crack, it could be written off as a bad patch or even difference in climbing style, no? perhaps a little tougher pace could have dropped him, but it's a gamble and it seemed to me cologna was not feeling lucky today.

kalla was really impressive today. top 4 overall ladies within ca 30sec thanks to her mighty effort. now if she and johaug can perform well in the classic races, then kowa might be in trouble come alpe cermis. somehow i doubt that though.
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  #117  
Old 01-03-13, 15:27
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Men's race: I was disappointed with Bauer's lack of effort, so Hellner had no chance when he was doing most of the work himself.

I was very impressed with Legkov's race in catching up the guys fairly quickly, and it wasn't a surprise that Harvey bonked towards the end of the climb.

Daniel Richardsson races brilliantly and took ~40 seconds on the front, and there are two classic races coming. He could do very well.

As for the overall, someone up there will end up having a bad day. Cologna will probably end up as overall winner yet again though, he doesn't seem to ever have a bad day.


Women's:
Zeller, Kalla and Wikén had super days. Especially Kalla, what a race. It's a shame she has little chance of making the podium. This is truly Johaug's to lose, she has a golden opportunity and could be more than a minute behind before the last race day and still end up as winner.
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  #118  
Old 01-03-13, 15:43
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I too was a bit bummed about Hellner having to do all the work and Bauer wheelsucking most of the time. Perhaps he too didnt just have it.

Realistically, how much faster is Johaug gonna be in the final climb than Kowa? I'd wager 45sec-1min, max but would not be too surprised if the difference was less. Historically Johaug has gained more if my memory serves, maybe 2010.

Climb times (hill only) and analysis from 2011

1. Johaug 19.23.9
2. Kowalczyk 19.34.3
3. Valentina Shevchenko 19.47.7
4. Marit Bjørgen 20.01.05
5. Katrin Zeller 20.19.9
6. Marthe Kristoffersen 20.20.0
7. Elizaberth Stephen 20.22.2
8. Krista Lähteenmäki 20.31.0
9. Ishida Masako 20.53.7
10. Astrid Uhrenholdt Jacobsen 20.57.4

http://worldofxc.com/blog/2011/01/09...nalysis-women/

Last edited by meat puppet; 01-03-13 at 18:21.
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  #119  
Old 01-03-13, 16:03
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Aren't those results from 2011?

At least it says 2011 in the link url.

Hard to tell what will happen. Maybe Kowalczyk will have a super day and crush everyone on Saturday.

She didn't seem that great today on the last lap.
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  #120  
Old 01-03-13, 16:12
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Her freestyle technique has never been good, and it hasn't gotten better since her knee operation.
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