Vini Fantini : Rabottinis Stage win + a Jersey last year, besides the inked numerous consideran italian riders, they should be fixed
Bardiani: Pozzovivo and the talented Brambilla left the team. They still got Modolo as a sprinter who's also getting along with hilly terrain, but never showed his potential in the Giro. The chance is that one of the young riders will finalize a breakaway succesful. Maybe to little compared to the other teams
Katusha: Still a good team even they were sent down to ProConti level. Rodriguez wont ride giro, but they still have Spilak, Moreno who could make a good place in the GC, in theory. But the main question is how dedicated they will compete if they would recieve an invitation. The last years the only put their focus on Rodriguez.
Europcar:Its obivously, that they will do a lot to animate the race, but as far as Rolland or Voeckler wont show prescence at the Giro, they have no chance to gather a wildcard
Team Novo Nordisk (formerly Type 1): To be honest i was surprised that they even got a pro conti licence. Due to their new strategy, all famous riders left the team. I dont want to talk disrespectfully about their philosophy, but as far as their new type-one riders won't deliver palmares, they arent a candidate for any Grand Tour.
Colombia: They will animate the race a lot, especially in the mountains. Duarte and Atapuma or anyone else are good to win a stage. Both are also good to make the Top 10 at the end or even more, when they wont lost that much time in the first week. Besides Atapuma won last year a Giro del Trentino Stage, maybe this impresses Aquarone that much to give them the Wild Card. If not they are the team that also has enough chances to get an invitation to TdF or Vuelta.
Net-App-Endura: Last year they have been one of the positive surprises of the Giro. A team out of nameless riders (on World Tour Level) rode a great giro with a lot of dedication and had several good results. They were able to hold almost all of there key riders, and out of there mergers with Endura they got some capable domestiques to strengh the team. So they could go with König (one of the most underrated riders in the peloton) for the GC (Top 15-10), Barta and Huzarski for single stage wins, and Schorn is a good sprinter on difficult finals. Besides Aquarone is a huge fan of Net-Apps philosophy and the continuous development of the team, and after last years performance they actually must have good chances to start this year again.
IAM Cycling: New Team, numerous considered riders, normally good chances. They have Tschopp, Denifl, and (if he's in shape) Lövkvist. And other riders who could animate the Race. The main question is what kind of qualifcation requires Acquarone, if the results out of the last year are an indicator, other teams could be in a better position. If Aquarone only want to have names, then they have a good chance.
MTN-Qhubeka: A new promoted Team, event they lost his best rider. To their core of African-Riders they add talented riders like Ciolek, Pardilla or Konovalovas, who all couldn't go on their own in their former teams. Even if i would like to see all those African riders on the main stage of the cycling, a Giro or another GT comes too early. Most of their riders will need this year to adapt to European Race level. Besides Ciolek and the others could have better chances on WorldTour Single Races or OneWeekRaces. But in future i see no reason why they shouldnt be part of a Grand Tour.
Caja Rural: They added the former 2nd Arroyo and Txurruka, a guy who is capable to win the Mountains Jersey, so far so good. That they've in the poll they have to thank those two riders. But after those 2 riders there's nothing more, besides their main goal will be the Vuelta. No chance for the Giro.
In Summary i think Vini-Fantini is safe. For the last 2 Wildcards there will be a battle between Net-App, Bardiani, Colombia and IAM, but i think out of those will have Net-App and Colombia the biggest chances to gather the 2 spots.
Last edited by Stibolino; 01-04-13 at 12:38.