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  #191  
Old 01-06-13, 18:50
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Fun facts.
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  #192  
Old 01-07-13, 10:26
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here are my 'fun facts' - the best pure climbers yesterday as we, cycling fans, often seek analogies to 2-wheel athletes.

below are the official climbing times between the climb start (km 6.3) and the finish (km 9.0). Added were body weights of the skiers where i could find it.

they tell us quite a lot...

that northug isn't even in the 20...that despite his 80+kg he managed to hang on with the guys 10 kg lighter (a testament to his huge engine)...that hellner is probably an aerobic monster with the best watt/kilo...that winning the tour the ski is probably not within northug's current athletic build as long as alpe cermis is on the manu.

...THAT, or northug will have to lose several kilos and risk losing his explosive power that made him the greatest contemporary winner.

1. 16:57 Marcus HELLNER (75kg)
2. 17:10 +00:13 Johannes DUERR (??)
3. 17:14 +00:17 Alexander LEGKOV (73kg))
4. 17:16 +00:20 Roland CLARA (65kg)
5. 17:16 +00:20 Ivan BABIKOV (68kg)
6. 17:25 +00:29 Lukas BAUER (70kg)
7. 17:26 +00:29 Thomas MORIGGL (65kg)
8. 17:28 +00:31 Giorgio DI CENTA (67kg)
9. 17:30 +00:34 Johan OLSSON (68kg)
10. 17:33 +00:36 Dario COLOGNA (75kg)
11. 17:54 +00:57 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN (68kg)
12. 17:55 +00:58 Robin DUVILLARD (68kg)
.................
21. 18:20 +01:23 Petter jr. NORTHUG (82kg)
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  #193  
Old 01-07-13, 11:49
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That's a great list. Not surprising to see Hellner on top, he has a powerful engine and is not in contention this year because of his downfall in the classic style. Clara is a light skier with great capacity, has always done well on this stage.

Olsson had never done this climb before, but he handled it brilliantly. It's a shame he has such a fragile body and bronchi, he's easily one of the most talented active skiers.
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  #194  
Old 01-07-13, 16:12
Tyler'sTwin Tyler'sTwin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by python View Post
here are my 'fun facts' - the best pure climbers yesterday as we, cycling fans, often seek analogies to 2-wheel athletes.

below are the official climbing times between the climb start (km 6.3) and the finish (km 9.0). Added were body weights of the skiers where i could find it.

they tell us quite a lot...

that northug isn't even in the 20...that despite his 80+kg he managed to hang on with the guys 10 kg lighter (a testament to his huge engine)...that hellner is probably an aerobic monster with the best watt/kilo...that winning the tour the ski is probably not within northug's current athletic build as long as alpe cermis is on the manu.

...THAT, or northug will have to lose several kilos and risk losing his explosive power that made him the greatest contemporary winner.

1. 16:57 Marcus HELLNER (75kg)
2. 17:10 +00:13 Johannes DUERR (??)
3. 17:14 +00:17 Alexander LEGKOV (73kg))
4. 17:16 +00:20 Roland CLARA (65kg)
5. 17:16 +00:20 Ivan BABIKOV (68kg)
6. 17:25 +00:29 Lukas BAUER (70kg)
7. 17:26 +00:29 Thomas MORIGGL (65kg)
8. 17:28 +00:31 Giorgio DI CENTA (67kg)
9. 17:30 +00:34 Johan OLSSON (68kg)
10. 17:33 +00:36 Dario COLOGNA (75kg)
11. 17:54 +00:57 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN (68kg)
12. 17:55 +00:58 Robin DUVILLARD (68kg)
.................
21. 18:20 +01:23 Petter jr. NORTHUG (82kg)
Gotta question those numbers. I doubt most of these guys are built like GT-riders. They sure don't look like it.
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  #195  
Old 01-07-13, 16:34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by python View Post
here are my 'fun facts' - the best pure climbers yesterday as we, cycling fans, often seek analogies to 2-wheel athletes.

below are the official climbing times between the climb start (km 6.3) and the finish (km 9.0). Added were body weights of the skiers where i could find it.

they tell us quite a lot...

that northug isn't even in the 20...that despite his 80+kg he managed to hang on with the guys 10 kg lighter (a testament to his huge engine)...that hellner is probably an aerobic monster with the best watt/kilo...that winning the tour the ski is probably not within northug's current athletic build as long as alpe cermis is on the manu.

...THAT, or northug will have to lose several kilos and risk losing his explosive power that made him the greatest contemporary winner.

1. 16:57 Marcus HELLNER (75kg)
2. 17:10 +00:13 Johannes DUERR (??)
3. 17:14 +00:17 Alexander LEGKOV (73kg))
4. 17:16 +00:20 Roland CLARA (65kg)
5. 17:16 +00:20 Ivan BABIKOV (68kg)
6. 17:25 +00:29 Lukas BAUER (70kg)
7. 17:26 +00:29 Thomas MORIGGL (65kg)
8. 17:28 +00:31 Giorgio DI CENTA (67kg)
9. 17:30 +00:34 Johan OLSSON (68kg)
10. 17:33 +00:36 Dario COLOGNA (75kg)
11. 17:54 +00:57 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN (68kg)
12. 17:55 +00:58 Robin DUVILLARD (68kg)
.................
21. 18:20 +01:23 Petter jr. NORTHUG (82kg)
Having seen most of them in person. I really don't believe those weights. In my opinion almost all of them are a few kilos heavier.
No way in hell is Bauer only 70 kilos for example. Give me break.
Anayway the analogy to cycling is somehwat flawed. In cross country, unlike in cycling, the whole muscle weight contributes to your motion.
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  #196  
Old 01-07-13, 18:50
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Originally Posted by Tyler'sTwin View Post
Gotta question those numbers. I doubt most of these guys are built like GT-riders. They sure don't look like it.
if you doubt numbers on the left, that are the official fis times on the climb this year, you should have concern about fis falsifying ALL numbers...

the numbers on the right were google-available body weight for the named athletes...no one made any claims about their accuracy, thus they are no better or worth than any body weight number available for any professional cyclist on the web. unlike bavarianrider, i can not weight skiers with my eyes

besides, the idea of my post was not to draw any complete or accurate picture (or even a parallel to cycling) but to remind that the laws of physic still apply. particularly when one has to lift his own weight up a 25% mountain and win. northug has consistently shown strength on the short explosive hills so typical of fis calendar and as consistently showed weakness on the long sustained steep uphills like cermis. the majority (but not all) of those who had demonstrated fastest times on the climbing part of cermis (km 6.3 to km 9) over the 7 years of tds existence seem lighter (to various degrees) than northug. this does not at all mean that their climbing strength is solely due to body weight..
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Last edited by python; 01-07-13 at 19:51. Reason: last sentence edited
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  #197  
Old 01-09-13, 14:18
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Originally Posted by MustIski View Post
Shame that Lähteenmäki was sick during the earlier days of Tour. She could have definitely competed for a place at the podium if she would have been fit. Kyllönen is having a really good breaktrough season. Too bad that her skis weren't too good today.
Ah thanks for that information. I agree, had she been fit going into the tour I also think she would have placed higher. She is one to watch for the future.

What?! A Finn with bad classics skis?! The Finns seem to have had really good skis in classic these last few seasons so just one skier getting it wrong is not bad at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by python View Post
when analyzing elite race results, i often value post-race comments of the participants themselves above what my own eyes saw…it appears there were 2 reasons for petter’s difficulty: sprinting too early in the race and poor grip wax. At least that’s what the Canadians think…their chief coach justin wadsworth said that the 1st the preem ended petter‘s race. it was too close to the start and too hard, so he instructed his guys to avoid it…also, kershaw noticed that northug did not seem to have the grip running on the outside of the track.
Yep seeing something and understanding what you are seeing depends a lot of what you know about what you are seeing. And the experts tend to see things differently than us amateurs.

But in this case I'm not so sure.

Northug usually prefers glide over grip. He prefers to advance in areas were it costs less energy, meaning downhill and the flats. So going up hill one should expect it to look like he might have a bad grip at times.

The observations I have been able to gather is Thomas Alsgaard saying something about Northug perhaps not being able to put in top performances 3 days in a row as he said could be seen in Kuusamo. I remember Northug struggling in that race, but I assumed it was more to do with being out in front alone for the hole race and being chased by the pack in difficult snow conditions. Could be Alsgaard is right, could be I am right, or it could be a bit of both.

Northug said he felt he did not have a good day when the race started and felt he had to take the early bonus points. He might be telling the truth or he might not. I'm not sure going all out for the bonus at first oppurtunity is a good tactic if your having a bad day, so I think I'll take that statement with a huge grain of salt. (I have never ever heard him complain about waxing in a post race interview. This is information that becomes available much later via third parties or an evaluation or something.)

Therese Johaug answered that they did not have the best skis in the classic race when asked a leading question in interviews after the alpe cermis climb the day after. She added that in a tour one has good skis some days and not so good skis other days. Hence careful to not put any blame on the waxers.

One observation supporting a generally bad Norwegian glide in that race both for the boys and the girls was Heidi Wengs race. In the gliding part of the course it was easy to see she had a bad glide. IMHO she is not strong enough in double polling yeat to be able to camouflage bad glide, and her experience in testing and having the right skis is less than the older girls. This I think is due to her being young and new on the team and not having had so much time to build up experience in choosing good skis for her, and the right balance in regards to grip vs. glide for her.

So my theory is that Northug started the race as planned, he might not have felt super, but he might not have felt that bad either. He proceeds as planned and takes the first bonus. His grip is as planned, meaning perhaps a little worse than his competitors. But when he goes down hill and on the flat he finds he is not able to advance as usual. He tries hard on the first round, but after that he starts to limit his losses.

So why did this happen? I think it's a mix of issues. I think the bad glide really exposed him badly, and he did not have the strength to compensate.

But I could be wrong. I think they evaluate the ski performance after the tour, so we might hear something about what happened in a few weeks time. Usually one of the NRK commentators mentions these things in passing during one of the races in january.

So my guess is bad glide+bad day for Northug.

Quote:
Originally Posted by python View Post
Today’s climb may bring some surprises. I doubt bauer will keep up with his record on the climb but one of the canadians (babikov!?) may do very well…I also think hellner can deliver a special performance today. as I analyzed a couple of days ago, northug without a comfortable cushion of bonuses was unlikely to win the gc…and so it look to happen.

the topography of the climb (flat for 6.5km out of the total 9km) and the strength of numbers in terms of team tactic/drafting/standings, favor one of the Russians today. i agree, legkov is the most logical choice having shown a consistent climbing strength during the past 2 days (1st to the top in the 5km classic and lively yesterday in the intermidiate sprints).

cologna ? if I recall correctly, lost to legkov almost 1.5 minute last year on the very mountain. so his chances seem to line up with 2nd on the GC.

we shall see in 2 hours
And right you were! But Dario wasn't that much worse than Legkov in the end so I think the situation in the race is essential in evaluating the climbling performance.
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  #198  
Old 01-09-13, 15:39
ToreBear ToreBear is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by python View Post
here are my 'fun facts' - the best pure climbers yesterday as we, cycling fans, often seek analogies to 2-wheel athletes.

below are the official climbing times between the climb start (km 6.3) and the finish (km 9.0). Added were body weights of the skiers where i could find it.

they tell us quite a lot...

that northug isn't even in the 20...that despite his 80+kg he managed to hang on with the guys 10 kg lighter (a testament to his huge engine)...that hellner is probably an aerobic monster with the best watt/kilo...that winning the tour the ski is probably not within northug's current athletic build as long as alpe cermis is on the manu.

...THAT, or northug will have to lose several kilos and risk losing his explosive power that made him the greatest contemporary winner.

1. 16:57 Marcus HELLNER (75kg)
2. 17:10 +00:13 Johannes DUERR (??)
3. 17:14 +00:17 Alexander LEGKOV (73kg))
4. 17:16 +00:20 Roland CLARA (65kg)
5. 17:16 +00:20 Ivan BABIKOV (68kg)
6. 17:25 +00:29 Lukas BAUER (70kg)
7. 17:26 +00:29 Thomas MORIGGL (65kg)
8. 17:28 +00:31 Giorgio DI CENTA (67kg)
9. 17:30 +00:34 Johan OLSSON (68kg)
10. 17:33 +00:36 Dario COLOGNA (75kg)
11. 17:54 +00:57 Maxim VYLEGZHANIN (68kg)
12. 17:55 +00:58 Robin DUVILLARD (68kg)
.................
21. 18:20 +01:23 Petter jr. NORTHUG (82kg)
Thanks! Great information. And great you took the time to find their weights! I have noticed Johannes Duerr during the tour and it will be interesting to see how he develops in the future. His weight as far as i can see is obviously 63.256-63.257 ish kg.

But one should be careful making conclusions based on one single datapoint. Here is the one from the 2011 tour(2010-2011 season).

1. 17:00 Bauer
2. 17:24 +00:24 Babikov
3. 17:26 +00:26 Perl
4. 17:30 +00:30 Vittoz
5. 17:32 +00:32 Moriggl
6. 17:36 +00:36 Clara
7. 17:41 +00:41 Duvillard
8. 17:46 +00:46 Reichelt
9. 17:51 +00:51 Fischer
10. 17:57 +00:57 Gaillard
11. 17:59 +00:51 Kershaw
12. 18:01 +01:01 Djupvik
.................

13. 18:04 +01:04 Northug
16. 18:16 +01:16 Cologna
20. 18:28 +01:28 Hellner


Northug mentioned this was a good day for him. The thing about the 2011 version is that Northug gained even more time on the flat before the climb. So he should have been much more tired in 2011 vs 2013 when they went rather slow. Northug had great skis and was in a position to utilize his ability on the flat. His pure climbing time was about 1 minute off the pace, but considering how much energy he used before the hill in 2011 vs 2013, he should have been much quicker this year.

He was not, so perhaps he is getting fatter as he keeps telling the media. Or he had a bad day.

But I agree, Northug is not likely to be among the best up the hill, but with a little time ahead of the climbers, and a possibility of using his strength on the flat part of the course, he might have a chance to win the tour even without loosing weight. And he is only 7ish kg heavier than Hellner so I don't think the weight is that important.

One thing to note is that I think this year had more sig sagging(sp?), so in theory it should be more suitable to Northugs need to vary his tecnique much more often.

So if he has a good day next year he still might be able to win, despite his extra weight.

2011 source:
http://www.fis-ski.com/uk/604/610.ht...C&raceid=17525

By the way. Thomas Alsgaard did this race a bit earlier in an amateur competition and won it with a time of 33:54.
http://www.dagbladet.no/2013/01/06/s...aard/25107803/

This would have put him in 59th place on the last stage. That's not bad for a big and heavy guy like him.

Last edited by ToreBear; 01-09-13 at 16:13.
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  #199  
Old 01-09-13, 21:07
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Duerr is 65kg according to his page.

And yes, his performance in the last 2 days was probably the biggest surprise of the TdS.
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  #200  
Old 01-11-13, 20:18
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Libertine Seguros Libertine Seguros is online now
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At last, Kaisa Mäkäräinen shoots well enough to actually take the place her ski speed should be getting her. Ruhpolding is known since the reprofiling for being pretty tough on the trails, but also for having quite an easy run-in to the range; certainly that would bear itself out in the results, with Domracheva, Gößner and Mäkäräinen - who've all had pretty inconsistent years with the rifle - all shooting 90% and being able to easily make up enough time to cover for that penalty loop. Mäkäräinen was typically the fastest at Östersund and in the sprint at Hochfilzen, but since then Gößner has set the fastest course time in every women's race, including the relays. Typically Domracheva and Mäkäräinen have made up the rest of the course time podium, though there have been some odd anomalies (Sophie Boilley being 2nd fastest in the relay two days ago, for example). It is odd, considering two years ago they were known for fast skiers who couldn't shoot, in both genders, but now Germany are, Gößner excepted, mostly about slow skiers who shoot accurately; Erik Lesser seemed a bit out of his depth in the relay in a head-to-head with Martin Fourcade and being chased down by Sumann and Svendsen, because that kind of scenario is just not his forte, while Peiffer was on decent form and if he can recapture his ski form from the second half of the last two seasons he'll be a big threat from here on in - always seems to start the season slowly though. Birnbacher, well, I don't know where to rate his performance because he missed all of Oberhof being ill; a fully fit Andi Birnbacher might have taken leg 4 and held on where Lesser struggled (in fairness to Erik he did also fall which likely had an ongoing effect). Schempp was pretty quick on the trails but is still a level off becoming a major contender, while it will be interesting to see how Florian Graf bounces back from his brush with infamy thanks to a momentary lapse of reason ("Knapp am Darwin Award vorbei"), while it was also interesting to see Kathrin Lang back into the World Cup six months after giving birth, having done just a couple of national races and the Veltins-Arena show race. Germany also haven't been using up their quota in the IBU-Cup which seems mad to me when they're rotating people like Franzi Hildebrand out of the World Cup team at times, because there you have top-30 talent just sitting out doing nothing, which seems ridiculous.
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