Who will win the 2013 GIRO? (Second round) - Page 28 - Cyclingnews Forum

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View Poll Results: Who will win the 2013 GIRO?
Wiggins 52 30.41%
Nibali 51 29.82%
Rodriguez 11 6.43%
Hesjedal 10 5.85%
Gesink 21 12.28%
Sanchez 5 2.92%
Basso 6 3.51%
Scarponi 2 1.17%
A colombian 4 2.34%
Other/Vino 9 5.26%
Voters: 171. You may not vote on this poll

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  #271  
Old 01-07-13, 16:01
staubsauger staubsauger is offline
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If he takes the Tour as a training ride yes. If he goes for the podium there, he'll fail at the Vuelta, unless he became a robot this winter.
That's why I said in theory = if he would focus on the Vuelta (In fact he isn't).

But I don't think it's totally impossible to do a Tour + Vuelta combo this year. I wouldn't rate a high-quality rider like Contador/Rodriguez with the Tour in his legs, lower than a Cobo or Anton peaking for the Vuelta! If another guy gets his breakthrough at the Vuelta it's a different story of course.

Talking about the Giro again. What do you think could we expect of the Ag2R duo? Could Betancur or Pozzovivo surprisingly be able to have a shot at the podium? I don't know much about the time trail abilities of Betancur. Is he capable to climb well 3 weeks also or do you think at the current point of his career he is more a classics rider.

Last edited by staubsauger; 01-07-13 at 16:11.
  #272  
Old 01-07-13, 16:08
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Probably.
But I think he's not a rider who can reach top form by preparing for a single race whole season.
I was more implying that AC and Froome already showed that you can't succeed in two consecutive GTs
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  #273  
Old 01-07-13, 16:08
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That's why I said in theory = if he would focus on the Vuelta (In fact he isn't).
fair enough
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  #274  
Old 01-07-13, 16:13
Dazed and Confused Dazed and Confused is online now
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You could argue that the course of this year's Tour is more suited to him than this year's Giro. Of course bonus seconds change it a bit.
I accept some would see it that way, but I disagree. J-Rod would have no way of getting time back using his main weapon: uphill/MTFs sprints to the line. Winning the tour would require J-Rod to ride like he has never done before. Long distance attacks and probably often. In contrast he can chip away at the deficit in the Giro doing what he does best and plan one big attack to size the jersey at some point.

Winning the Tour would require Wiggins, Froome, Contador and probbaly Andy to fail along the way. Can't see it happening.
  #275  
Old 01-07-13, 16:13
theyoungest theyoungest is offline
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meh, Giro much better opportunity than the Tour.
Bonus secs plus numerous uphill/MTFs in Italy will give J-Rod a real shot at the title.

Tour with a flat TT (33km) and a hilly one (32km) will put J-Rod on the back foot with no easy way to get time back as there are no bonus secs available. I would put his chance of winning the race at below 5%.

He can take on the Vuelta regardless of choosing the Giro or the Tour.
Last year's Giro course was better for him, I think we can all agree. And he didn't win. Now with Wiggo there's a guy who will take at least 5 minutes on him in the time trials... how on earth is he going to win those back?
  #276  
Old 01-07-13, 16:14
serfla serfla is offline
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meh, Giro much better opportunity than the Tour.
Bonus secs plus numerous uphill/MTFs in Italy will give J-Rod a real shot at the title.

Tour with a flat TT (33km) and a hilly one (32km) will put J-Rod on the back foot with no easy way to get time back as there are no bonus secs available. I would put his chance of winning the race at below 5%.

He can take on the Vuelta regardless of choosing the Giro or the Tour.
You have right about bonus seconds, but that tt is too long, flat and straight for him. He could lose 5+ minutes there. And that's really a lot.
There's a ttt in the Tour as well (as in the Giro), and keeping in mind that he'll, probably, be searching for a not so strong team in order to start the Tour, that's another stage where he'll lose some time.
Vuelta is certainly the best race for him.
  #277  
Old 01-07-13, 16:16
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Last year's Giro course was better for him, I think we can all agree. And he didn't win. Now with Wiggo there's a guy who will take at least 5 minutes on him in the time trials... how on earth is he going to win those back?
Last year's Giro was a better shot than this year's Tour too, and he didn't win, exactly.
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  #278  
Old 01-07-13, 16:18
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but that tt is too long, flat and straight for him.
I'd say that itt is everything but straight and flat. But in any case Wiggo would take 4 minutes to him.
Now, Do we think Purito will take less than 2 minutes by AC and Froome at the Tour? Where will he take them back?
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  #279  
Old 01-07-13, 16:21
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Talking about the Giro again. What do you think could we expect of the Ag2R duo? Could Betancur or Pozzovivo surprisingly be able to have a shot at the podium? I don't know much about the time trail abilities of Betancur. Is he capable to climb well 3 weeks also or do you think at the current point of his career he is more a classics rider.
The Betancur I saw at the 2011 Giro was still good enough after 3 weeks of racing. It depends a lot of his and Pozzovivo goals. If their aim is the GC then they have a good shot at the top 10. I don't know about Betancour, but Pozzovivo is not that weak in tting as he seems, and in the mountains he'll probably be allowed to take a lot of time back.
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  #280  
Old 01-07-13, 16:29
Dazed and Confused Dazed and Confused is online now
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You have right about bonus seconds, but that tt is too long, flat and straight for him. He could lose 5+ minutes there. And that's really a lot.
There's a ttt in the Tour as well (as in the Giro), and keeping in mind that he'll, probably, be searching for a not so strong team in order to start the Tour, that's another stage where he'll lose some time.
Vuelta is certainly the best race for him.
No question the Vuelta is best suited for the Spaniard, but if he insists on starting in two GT's this year, I would recommend him going for the Giro in addition to the Vuelta. Chance of winning the Giro: 15% imo.

Note last year J-Rod lost 1min to De Gendt and Hesjedal in the final flat TT over 30km. Clearly he will lose much more to Wiggins, but so will most other contenders.
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