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  #2071  
Old 01-09-13, 05:43
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FoxxyBrown1111 FoxxyBrown1111 is offline
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So, the Pistol offense is dead before it really got started!? Same like the "razzle dazzle" experiment some 10 yrs ago in CHI, or the "run and shoot", "wildcat", "fun and gun" or whatever that works in college, but not against fast, mean and violent defensive NFL players?

Seems like SEA came up with the blueprint D: Kill the QB, he´s an easy target since he is mostly exposed in that kind of offense...

Anyway, i expect a major decline in RG3´s efficiency stats nxt season (if he ever comes back), since he will throw more out of normal formations (unless of course Shanahan is real crazy and will sacrifice his QB again for short term success). And there, as seen in his poor 3rd down conversations, he doesn´t really shine. Either he learns sooner than Cunningham or Vick to become a true pocket passer, or he will be done early.

My picks:
HOU over NE (27-23); People getting arrogant in Boston again. I guess HOU is very angry and highly motivated.... The same as always: Team Hollywood loses a big game as heavy favourite. This time it´s not about Gisele or a bad knee, but a very stupid writer...
BAL over DEN (24-20); Manning will suffer... hey it´s the playoffs
SF over GB (24-17); All go... Moss going to the SB
SEA over ATL (27-17); No doubt i have here...

Edit: I am serious. Have put some real money on my picks...

Quote:
Originally Posted by on3m@n@rmy View Post
In this weeks divsional games:
- most likely to lose in the NFC = Baltimore (@ Denver)
- most likely to lose in the AFC = Houston (@ New England)
Did i miss some inside joke here, or did you just drink the same lager as me?

Last edited by FoxxyBrown1111; 01-09-13 at 05:58.
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  #2072  
Old 01-09-13, 06:39
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Alpe d'Huez Alpe d'Huez is offline
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Considering that he tore his MCL, he's going to be out the entire off season, and maybe into next season. When RGIII comes back, look for him to actually play similar to Kirk Cousins where he's mostly a pocket passer, but also rolls out a fair amount. He may be very fast, but he's not that big. Ben Roethlisberger is built like a tank and look at how banged up his career has been. RGIII will also learn how to run out of bounds, and slide a lot. The kid's not stupid.

I think you're telling the truth Foxxy on your picks. May not agree, but I see your point of view.

I don't think the Pistol is dead in the NFL. Well, I guess it's how you define it. The read option from the pistol formation allowing the QB to run may be used less, especially in Washington, but having the QB line up in a short shotgun, with one RB deep, and another in a short slot who can either run or receiver, is still very viable. We may see SF run some of this on Sunday, it's the exact offense Kaepernick ran in college at Nevada, while still passing a good deal.

I already wrote about the Sea-Atl game, so here's next:

I think both Houston at New England and Baltimore at Denver have similar set-ups. The underdog in both games can go a long way by keeping the score close after 1Q. If they start the game and can't move the ball, and allow Brady/Manning to march down the field and quickly score, it will be long days and we'll see repeats of NE's 42-14 drubbing of Houston in week 14, and Denver's easy 34-17 win over the Ravens in week 15. But if the visiting teams can keep it close early and get some momentum, they can win. We've seen NE get complacent and overconfident in recent years, and PM is inconsistent in the playoffs and Baltimore streaky. The logical pick is that NE and Denver will both easily win, but I won't be too shocked if one (or both?) lose.

Green Bay at San Francisco is intriguing. The Packers defense was decent last week, but Joe Webb was not ready, and the Vikings looked done. GB's offense was also rather anemic. Also, they give up a lot of sacks, and with both Smith's playing for SF, that bodes poorly for the Packers. But Aaron Rodgers is very dangerous, the Packers have a lot of experience, and are about as healthy as they have been all year. I wouldn't count them out. I just think the 49er defense is too good, they're pretty healthy (if Smith really is good to go) and the offense will be ready to roll. The one player they are missing is Manningham, but since Kaep took over, he was getting less throws and Moss more anyway. I may change my mind after this week, but still like SF's chances to win the SB. Though the game I really want to see is SF and Seattle go at it again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by on3m@n@rmy View Post
In this weeks divsional games:
- most likely to lose in the NFC = Baltimore (@ Denver)
- most likely to lose in the AFC = Houston (@ New England)
Uh, both those games are in the AFC.
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  #2073  
Old 01-09-13, 06:42
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Merckx index Merckx index is offline
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Originally Posted by on3m@n@rmy View Post

In this weeks divsional games:
- most likely to lose in the NFC = Baltimore (@ Denver)
- most likely to lose in the AFC = Houston (@ New England)
I will bet you $100,000 that Baltimore does not lose to Denver in the NFC. Please PM me immediately. I am serious.

Quote:
i expect a major decline in RG3´s efficiency stats nxt season (if he ever comes back)
Indeed. Can’t believe some people in this forum are buying the analysts’ BS that it was the right move to keep a guy who was noticeably limping at the end of the 1st quarter in the game. How can anyone seriously say, “awful to see that happen”, and then in the next breath, “right move to keep him in.” You don’t see the obvious contradiction? Not only was he clearly less effective (4/10 for 16 yards after the 1st quarter; and one reason why Morris’ production went down after that was because when teams don’t fear RG3’s running, they can key on the RB), but more to the point, his reduced mobility made him less able to avoid the major hits that cause major injuries. He was being set up for what eventually happened.

But since these analysts still don’t get it after four thousand lawsuits (and counting), I wouldn’t expect another injury to make any difference to them. And yes, of course former NFL players are going to say, let the guy stay in. In the Clinic, several people have noted an old poll that showed many Olympic athletes would take a drug that killed them in five years if it helped them win a gold medal. It’s basically the same mentality in the NFL. If RG3 had managed to lead the Skins to a SB victory on a gimpy leg, then suffered a career-ending injury late in the 4th quarter, a lot of people who might not admit it out loud would think it was worth it.

Very gutsy picks, Foxxy. I think Houston will make the game far more competitive than their meeting a few weeks ago—and yeah, that writer is the most (in)famous man in Houston now--but still expect NE to win. OTOH, I think the Baltimore-Denver game will turn out pretty much the way it did a few weeks ago. Manning is 2-0 vs. the Ravens in the postseason, he knows that defense pretty well.

The NFC games seem to me far harder to pick. How healthy is Justin Smith? No one knows. He started practice Friday, but he didn't put much pressure on his arm, and even he said he probably wouldn't know how good it is until he actually plays in the game. All I'll say is if he turns out to be capable of playing anywhere near 100%, the Niners should win and suddenly be SB favorites. And even if he isn't, at least GB doesn't have a strong running game. He really shines at stopping the run, though he's also key to the other Smith getting to A-Rod.

I'm sticking with Atlanta, though if someone asks me to justify that decision, I really can't. Atlanta has a better pocket passer and better WRs, but that's about all. Michael Turner used to be one of the better RBs in the NFL, but hasn't done much recently, and has been AWOL in their recent playoff losses. And the Seahawks defense is obviously scary. But the Seahawks aren't the same team on the road they are at home. I'm not convinced the Wash. game proved otherwise. If RG3 had been 100% the whole game, would Seattle have won? Not at all clear. Maintain that two TD early advantage into the second half, and suddenly the Hawks have to change their game plan a little, Wilson has to do more passing than he was asked to do this year.

I wish Oregon had played Bama, too, but I still think Bama would have won, say 50-30. We can get some rough idea from the fact that in the beginning of last year, the Ducks lost to LSU 41-27. That LSU team beat Bama later that year, but didn’t fare all that much better than ND in the championship game. And if you think Bama’s rout of ND says the worst possible thing about the current system, you’re wrong, it’s the second worst thing. The worst thing: if Oregon and/or KSU had not suffered upset losses near the end of the season, Bama wouldn’t even have played in the championship game. Think about that: ND would have been in (or maybe OR vs. KSU; that game didn't turn out very well-matched, either), but not Bama.

How much will a playoff system help? If it had been in place this year, I think Oregon might still have missed out, to teams like Florida, which stunk up the Sugar Bowl, Stanford, which had a good season and upset OR but struggled to beat 8-5 Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, and of course ND. Any playoff system still depends on a reasonable ranking of teams. That the system had ND no. 1 says there are big problems with that system. You can expand the number of teams, but then you get a situation like in the NFL, where teams like the Giants play mediocre in the regular season, barely qualify for the postseason, then get hot or lucky at the right time. We discussed this last year.

Last edited by Merckx index; 01-09-13 at 06:57.
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  #2074  
Old 01-09-13, 08:32
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Alpe d'Huez Alpe d'Huez is offline
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I think a big question now being asked with RGIII is why was he in the game in the first place, and why did the team let him dictate, at least to a certain degree, his staying in the game? He said they'd have to drag him out to keep him from playing, but that's not how coaches and doctor's work. And since they (apparently) knew he was on a gimpy knee, why weren't they more prepared to put Cousins in, who actually played well earlier in the year in relief? Why didn't they prep him more during the week? The Skins also only had two QB's on roster, Grossman wasn't even suited up. What were they thinking?

One thing's for sure, RGIII, as Foxxy says, isn't going to play the same way when he returns (whenever that is). The good news is that, as I alluded to, if he becomes more of a pocket passer who rolls out, or works within a moving pocket, he has the arm to throw anywhere in the field. And I think he has the smarts to adapt to that. But we may not see this QB until 2014 (gulp). One thing is for sure, there is no possible way Washington is going to give up Cousins in the off-season.

As to the NCAA, I still see a day where we have four, 16-team super conferences, and those four conference winners end up in a tournament, with four more wildcards being invited using some sort of BCS math. No, this won't solve everything, but in such an 8-team tournament, it's very likely teams (from this year) such as Alabama, Oregon, Florida, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Stanford would have gotten in. Leaving LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina and Oklahoma to fight for the last two spots. It's unlikely the team left out (toss in Louisville) would be able to lay much claim to being superior to the team that won such a tournament. Though yes, you could see a top team getting a poor match-up and losing, while an 8th seeded team getting hot and beating the #4 seed in the final. So be it. Might as well tell yourself the Saints should have won the SB last year while you're at it. Any way you slice it, it's better than what we have.

Furthermore, the prestige of a bowl game is also wearing away. With major (BCS) bowl games not having the same cachet because of the championship game, the Rose, Sugar, Orange bowls aren't what they were 20 years ago. Not even close. Plus with the rest of the bowls having names like the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl being so absurdly whorred out in sponsorship, the games are less meaningful than conference championships.
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  #2075  
Old 01-09-13, 13:56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Merckx index View Post
I will bet you $100,000 that Baltimore does not lose to Denver in the NFC. Please PM me immediately. I am serious.
Thanks for this Merckx, at least one thing to smile about on this otherwise very depressing day.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpe d'Huez View Post
I think a big question now being asked with RGIII is why was he in the game in the first place, and why did the team let him dictate, at least to a certain degree, his staying in the game? He said they'd have to drag him out to keep him from playing, but that's not how coaches and doctor's work. And since they (apparently) knew he was on a gimpy knee, why weren't they more prepared to put Cousins in, who actually played well earlier in the year in relief? Why didn't they prep him more during the week? The Skins also only had two QB's on roster, Grossman wasn't even suited up. What were they thinking?

One thing's for sure, RGIII, as Foxxy says, isn't going to play the same way when he returns (whenever that is). The good news is that, as I alluded to, if he becomes more of a pocket passer who rolls out, or works within a moving pocket, he has the arm to throw anywhere in the field. And I think he has the smarts to adapt to that. But we may not see this QB until 2014 (gulp). One thing is for sure, there is no possible way Washington is going to give up Cousins in the off-season.

Quote:
According to Chris Mortensen of ESPN, Griffin will undergo “total reconstruction” surgery early Wednesday morning to repair complete tears to his ACL and LCL. Dr. James Andrews will perform the surgery and he is expected to miss six to eight months. Mortensen reported at 1:03 a.m. ET that the surgery would take place in “about six hours” placing the actual time of the surgery somewhere around 7 a.m. ET.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...acl-lcl-tears/

I am SO p!ssed off by how this happened. I was screaming at the tv at HT that Shanny should pull him. I'm not for a moment suggesting that the outcome of the game would have been any different, but maybe RG3's knee wouldn't have gotten as destroyed as it has. The only upside that I can find is that he's being operated on by the same surgeon who did AP, so maybe 3Bob will be in with a shout at MVP in 2014.

I'll post my picks in due course, but I've got to smash a wall first.......
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  #2076  
Old 01-09-13, 17:17
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Alpe d'Huez Alpe d'Huez is offline
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Yes, heard this morning about the double tear. Not good. The recovery times you listed were favorable. Recall that Adrian Peterson tore his ACL on the last game of 2011, and barely made it back to start 2012, and that was with a very aggressive and rigorous rehab. As I said, I anticipate the Redskins will now prepare for Kirk Cousins to be the starter heading into next season, with RGIII coming back at some point. When he does, he won't play quite the same. I still think he could be quite good in this league, because he has the arm and the smarts and leadership qualities to do it. But he wont run for 800 yards. More like 200.

This type of injury has happened before. In 2007 Dennis Dixon was the QB for the Oregon Ducks. They were ranked #2 in the nation and on a serious roll. In week 6 he injured his knee, very similar to RGIII, only a partial ACL tear. Dixon missed a game, they put a brace on him, and he was named the starter again a week after that. He was very confident he could play and at the start of the game he looked good, until this time on a simple play he planted his foot, and the knee gave, a full ACL tear. His season was over, arguably his career ruined. The situation was eerily similar to RGIII. Video link here.

In other news the Dallas Cowboys fired DC Rob Ryan, reportedly while Ryan was on vacation. A lot of Cowboys players were upset about it. I personally think it was a stupid decision. The Cowboys need some sort of stability, with Jerry Jones too frequently making knee jerk reactions, not letting his talented team gel. Considering the Jets fired everyone but Rex, I suggest they complete the show and hire Robb.
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  #2077  
Old 01-09-13, 18:00
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on3m@n@rmy on3m@n@rmy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FoxxyBrown1111 View Post
Anyway, i expect a major decline in RG3´s efficiency stats nxt season (if he ever comes back), since he will throw more out of normal formations (unless of course Shanahan is real crazy and will sacrifice his QB again for short term success).

Did i miss some inside joke here, or did you just drink the same lager as me?
Ooow. I did THAT? Well, unfortunately I can't blame it on any lager this time. That's funny. And I get to laugh at myself several more times on this page.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Merckx index View Post
I will bet you $100,000 that Baltimore does not lose to Denver in the NFC. Please PM me immediately. I am serious.

Indeed. Can’t believe some people in this forum are buying the analysts’ BS that it was the right move to keep a guy who was noticeably limping at the end of the 1st quarter in the game. How can anyone seriously say, “awful to see that happen”, and then in the next breath, “right move to keep him in.” You don’t see the obvious contradiction?
You are a richer man than I if you can wager that amount. My heart is with the Raves, but still think they are most LIKELY to lose in Denver. Not that they will lose.

The fact is that RG still gave them the best shot to win the game. That is why he stayed in the game. It's easy to say it was the wrong decision AFTER the game is done and the Skins lost. But the decisions to let him keep playing are GAME TIME decisions by football players and minds (including the medical staff... that's the possible scandal). As long as the team doctor says he seems okay to continue, and player agrees, then the player gives it a go. So there is no contradiction in the mind of a typical football player. It is just a different way of thinking. Show me one quote by an NFL player who said it was wrong for RG to keep playing, and I'll show you 100 who say the opposite. But they all say the injury is unfortunate. Football is a risky game. Everytime a player steps on the field he understands it could be his last.

Now, the scandal could be that the team doctor advised Shanny and RG that he cannot continue. If that is the case (and there's lots of discussion about what transpired between RG, the doc, & HC), then letting him play would not be following team protocols and would be the wrong choice. But if the doctor says he could play, but should not, then it falls to the player's or coach's choice. If this was a mid-season game, my guess is RG would not have continued. But in the playoffs with everything on the line... well, you saw what happened. The choice RG made was the choice NFL players throughout history have had to make. They play with a lot of pain until injury prevents them from playing. Some ppl may not like or understand that and say it is wrong, but that's the player's choice and that's the NFL. BTW, this happens in college too, so by the time players reach the NFL this way of thinking is already set in their minds.

RG3 will be back, and in full form when he is ready. Watching him this season I felt he took too much risk running and took unnecessary hits like the one that damaged his knee several weeks ago. So I agree he will run differently, not less hard, just differently to not expose himself so much. Example... look at the way RW3 (Russel Wilson jersey #3) runs compared to RG3. Wilson does things to avoid contact most of the time, by running out of bounds or sliding. RG3 will need to do more of that.

How is it that all the pins in the Jets lane at the bowling alley fall except the head pin? Jets OC, DC, and GM are all gone, and Rex is left standing. Amazing. Rex must have some pull.

Right decision for Oregon HC Chip Kelly to stay at Oregon instead of jumping to the NFL. I really don't think his up tempo high power offense (which is based more on run) would translate that well to the NFL because in the NFL everybody is fast. Also, Chip has unfinished work to do at Oregon, which is to improve an average defense while maintaining that offensive output. Then to win the NC.
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  #2078  
Old 01-10-13, 03:03
Pazuzu Pazuzu is offline
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New England over Houston
Denver over Baltimore
Green Bay over San Francisco
Seattle over Atlanta
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  #2079  
Old 01-10-13, 03:18
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Originally Posted by Pazuzu View Post
New England over Houston
Denver over Baltimore
Green Bay over San Francisco
Seattle over Atlanta
+1
Safe bets...best QBs w/multiple targets.
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  #2080  
Old 01-10-13, 04:05
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Alpe d'Huez Alpe d'Huez is offline
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Is RW3 better than Matt Ryan? Hawks receivers better than Falcons? Seattle certainly runs the ball better, and has a better defense, but...

I'm sticking with SF over GB, but won't be shocked by a GB win.
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