2013 Tour of Oman (11th-16th February), 2.HC - Page 37 - Cyclingnews Forum

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  #361  
Old 02-12-13, 16:55
HiCadence HiCadence is offline
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What are Sagan's chances on Green Mountain?
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  #362  
Old 02-12-13, 16:56
Lanark Lanark is offline
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What are Sagan's chances on Green Mountain?
Very slim.
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  #363  
Old 02-12-13, 17:09
wheelie1977 wheelie1977 is offline
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Originally Posted by MADRAZO View Post
I dont know the size of the bookies, but as a generel rule paddypowers compiler is horribly bad and makes huge mistakes over and over, so they can not at all be used as a measure of the bookies favourites. I dont know why they have not found a better compiler yet at paddypower but they have been horrible for years. But one thing is for sure, if I could bet there I would not share their gifts causing them even more loses, so that they will change the compiler sooner.

Bet365 and to a lesser extend Sportingbet is the bookies that will normaly define the market (they are also the odds that plenty of other bookies will copy later), along with betfair when they have odds, and both of these obviously started out with Kittel as huge favourite for stage 1 and Sagan as a even bigger favourite for stage 2, as this was pretty obvious for both stages, and trust me they do not adjust to paddypower prices before they release.
How can I trust you :-)

Look this was all a timing issue. Paddy Power & its brother and its sister priced up very early. They got taken to the cleaners. I wholeheardedly agree that they are not the best when looking at prices as to who the favourite is but no one is debating who the REAL favourite should have been. So everything that is argued here after that point is irrelevant. The earlier poster simply stated that Sagan was the favourite in BET365. There is no doubt he was. But BET365 didn't put their market online for about 4 hours after Paddy Power had offered theirs. Regardless of whether they had their own pricing or not, BET365 must have laughed a little and saw the price of Sagan plummet between 6.15 and 7 o clock GMT last night. Paddy power then pulled the plug. BET365 and others then come rolling into the night sky with their market which, shock horror disbelief!, has Sagan as favourite :-) Totally unconnected to all the betting that had gone on in the Paddy Power markets, i'm sure....

anyway, this is a cycling forum, not a bookies forum. we were all lucky to get 10/1 about today's win with the Irish bookmaker. It should be dropped.

Who for tomorrow? I'd imagine Sagan will wheelie his way to the finish but Green Edge could have a few spoilers for the minor placings.

Could Contador attack a la Velits 2012 and repel the chasers this time ? Nibali and co lost seconds to Sagan here last year. Could be a chance for one of the climbers to take a chance.
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  #364  
Old 02-12-13, 17:24
maltiv maltiv is offline
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What are Sagan's chances on Green Mountain?
Zero, he went into that climb with the leader's jersey last year as well and was dropped after 500 meters.
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  #365  
Old 02-12-13, 17:31
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the asian the asian is offline
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Milan-San Remo is a lottery race, he doesn't want to build his season around it because of that.
He should try and win it soon. No point trying to win the same monument over and over again, once you've won it.
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  #366  
Old 02-12-13, 17:31
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The Hitch The Hitch is offline
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Originally Posted by Lanark View Post
Very slim.
Ebh and visconti did well before, though field was crapper then, and i don't think sagan would bother.

Funnily though kirby said about sagan today "gts will soon start falling his way". And until then i thought he was looking more.knowledgeable than usual.
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  #367  
Old 02-12-13, 17:36
theyoungest theyoungest is offline
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Zero, he went into that climb with the leader's jersey last year as well and was dropped after 500 meters.
He'll probably go into that stage with a 30 or 40 second advantage to the GC guys. That might motivate him to go a bit deeper. Theoretically he should be able to do as well as Visconti or EBH, as Hitch also points out.
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  #368  
Old 02-12-13, 17:37
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LaFlorecita LaFlorecita is offline
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Originally Posted by theyoungest View Post
He'll probably go into that stage with a 30 or 40 second advantage to the GC guys. That might motivate him to go a bit deeper. Theoretically he should be able to do as well as Visconti or EBH, as Hitch also points out.
30 to 40 seconds isn't that a bit optimistic
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  #369  
Old 02-12-13, 17:40
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Miburo Miburo is offline
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Originally Posted by del1962 View Post
How can contador have been caught on the descent when at least 3 other riders were over the final climb before him though.
Well Saxo site says otherwise but ok you might think that's subjective.

But then Nibali, a guy who was there at the climb, said Contador was the strongest on the climb.

So yeah
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  #370  
Old 02-12-13, 17:46
theyoungest theyoungest is offline
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Originally Posted by LaFlorecita View Post
30 to 40 seconds isn't that a bit optimistic
He already has 21 seconds to Contador. He'll win tomorrow's stage as well, maybe once again with a small gap.
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