Olympics - Individual Pursuit

[johnnh]

My first post on here - hope I'm not repeating anything previously mentioned.

Just read on the BBC website that amongst other events the individual pursuit is to be knocked on the head for the next Olympics. Apart from the fact that Romero and Wiggins will have nothing to defend it means the removal of what for me is the purest cycling event of them all.

Surely this cannot be allowed to happen. What can we do?

[jmax22]

We can't do anything. Unless we want to include watching paint dry as an Olympic Sport. That way the pursuit would be replaced with something a smidge more exciting that non-British people can win.

[blackcat]

Originally Posted by jmax22

We can't do anything. Unless we want to include watching paint dry as an Olympic Sport. That way the pursuit would be replaced with something a smidge more exciting that non-British people can win.

nope, not 2012 pursuit.

That promised a ripping event.

Thomas, Phinney, Sergent, Bobridge, Hepburn, Kuperasov, and there is even a few young Kiwis who could give it a nudge.

Wiggins has no chance at winning 2012. If he could not get under 4'15" in Beijing, no way is he doing a 4'12" to win in London, which is what it would require.

[Tapeworm]

Originally Posted by jmax22

We can't do anything. Unless we want to include watching paint dry as an Olympic Sport. That way the pursuit would be replaced with something a smidge more exciting that non-British people can win.

I didn't realise that the prerequisite of any Olympic sport was how "interesting" it is. If that were the case then a whole host of sports would have gone. Ever watched archery? Spectator sport it ain't. But the people have worked long and hard to get to this level, which is what it is supposed to be about.

[Big_Blue_Dave]

Originally Posted by blackcat

nope, not 2012 pursuit.

That promised a ripping event.

Thomas, Phinney, Sergent, Bobridge, Hepburn, Kuperasov, and there is even a few young Kiwis who could give it a nudge.

Wiggins has no chance at winning 2012. If he could not get under 4'15" in Beijing, no way is he doing a 4'12" to win in London, which is what it would require.

You will find he could have done a much faster time in Beijing than a 4'15" however the schedule was created so he could take it relatively easy knowing the schedule he had coming up over the rest of the programme, and that none of the other riders could get close to him.

I believe his times in training both in Manchester and Newport were running very close to Boardman's WR of 4'11", and on longer runs than 4km. If Wiggins wanted to do the IP in London, assuming it is not dropped, then I feel he will break the WR, and do so comfortably, but I don't think there is more than maybe two people with the ability to do that.

[blackcat]

Originally Posted by Big_Blue_Dave

You will find he could have done a much faster time in Beijing than a 4'15" however the schedule was created so he could take it relatively easy knowing the schedule he had coming up over the rest of the programme, and that none of the other riders could get close to him.

I believe his times in training both in Manchester and Newport were running very close to Boardman's WR of 4'11", and on longer runs than 4km. If Wiggins wanted to do the IP in London, assuming it is not dropped, then I feel he will break the WR, and do so comfortably, but I don't think there is more than maybe two people with the ability to do that.

I know his PB was Athens, but I think his potential best time was 2007 Worlds, forget where they were, may have been Bordeux. He either caught someone like Escobar and his time was on track to be better than Athens pb.

So his 4'15" low, the pb, was in no means his potential. I appreciate that. And the IP is a race to win, with tactics, not balls to the wall for a pb. And when there are 3 or 4 rounds as there used to be, very strategic in how you lay out your efforts.

Interesting he was running close to 4'11". I never heard that. I am not sure I am buying that tho. He was very impressed when he saw his times in 2007, the 4'16" win I think. I do not know if he could have brought it down that much unless the disparity in conditions gave a 2-3 seconds bite. There must be declining gains, and the anaerobic power must be higher in potential, as a young rider, without the sapping miles on the road.

The lower the times become, I actually think the more the event becomes like the team pursuit, where it tests the anaerobic power, not the aerobic threshold. But I am not a physiologist. I dont think he could turn a big enough gear to go lower. Phinney on the other hand, he has a 1'01 kilo. Two or even three 1'01" efforts in competition. Clancy has a 1'02" and probably more potential, and he has a sub 4'20" in competition I believe, and the phsiologists like Ian Jones have said his output is where Wiggins is. And I think he has the capacity to go much lower in his times, but where Wiggins is, and lower? He has more power over the kilo that is sure.

[blackcat]

Originally Posted by Big_Blue_Dave

You will find he could have done a much faster time in Beijing than a 4'15" however the schedule was created so he could take it relatively easy knowing the schedule he had coming up over the rest of the programme, and that none of the other riders could get close to him.

I believe his times in training both in Manchester and Newport were running very close to Boardman's WR of 4'11", and on longer runs than 4km. If Wiggins wanted to do the IP in London, assuming it is not dropped, then I feel he will break the WR, and do so comfortably, but I don't think there is more than maybe two people with the ability to do that.

just one thing also that makes me doubt it. He took a slower schedule into his ride off with Huizenga in 2008 Worlds in Manchester.

And in the qualifying, he did not lay down a time versus Huizenga. He may have seen Huizenga's 4'34" I think, and decided to lay off, and change schedule. Huizenga told me he was really quite sick for the lead-up and post the Olympics, and I do not think he has been back this year.

But becaues Huizenga beat him in qualifying, why he was quite content he would win easily does not sound like the normal meticulous planning and preparation coming out of BC.

[Big_Blue_Dave]

Originally Posted by blackcat

just one thing also that makes me doubt it. He took a slower schedule into his ride off with Huizenga in 2008 Worlds in Manchester.

And in the qualifying, he did not lay down a time versus Huizenga. He may have seen Huizenga's 4'34" I think, and decided to lay off, and change schedule. Huizenga told me he was really quite sick for the lead-up and post the Olympics, and I do not think he has been back this year.

But becaues Huizenga beat him in qualifying, why he was quite content he would win easily does not sound like the normal meticulous planning and preparation coming out of BC.

2008 was all about building performance for the Olympics, and aiming to produce good times, in events that were timed, compared to the rivals. For example, in the team sprint GB were beaten quite well by the French squad. All this before the main training camps to hit the results required before tapering to the actual Olympic event.

I was at the Worlds in 2008, and by the way in 2007 I think it was Palma in Majorca, and watched the qualifying, Huizenga gave it absolutely everything he could to hit that qualification time, but Wiggins seemed to aim for a time better than the 2nd place rider to ensure being in the final. Then in the final it looked liek Huizenga was cooked from about 1250m resulting in a much slower time, or I think that could have been much closer, even with a chance of beating Wiggins.

[blackcat]

BB Dave, appreciate the input and rounding out my (lack of) knowledge. Good to have full information.

I take you at your word, but I am still sceptical at the spin. Huizenga is a good second better in qualifying, and Wiggins does only do a 4'17" in qualifying and 4'18.5" in finals. If he really had 5 seconds up his sleeve, I would think Wiggins would have started out on a much faster schedule.

No one knew what Huizenga had up his sleeve. From 2001 to 2002 Wiggins brought his time down from 28"ish to 17" or 18" at Manchester Commonwealth Games, so no one knew what Huizenga had up his sleeve as a 23yo.

Wiggins went 1'08" high in the first km, and finished 1'02" high, 1'02" high, and shut it down because he won.

Compare that to Thomas' schedule at Manchester last week.

So even tho Wiggins shut it down, and he still had the teams, and the madison, look at his lack of dominance over Huizenga at the start.

I know in an Olympic year, they like to peak. There is another variable of peaking too, the one that Tour de France riders can coincidentally time their form to.

Wiggins is good in maintain consistency through his rides, and knowing what he has to hit to win. So that requirement fundamental, is quite different to knocking a WR out. And his training may be to produce his best top end, knowing he has the repeatability and experience, so he can more easily do a WR in training.

[karlboss]

4:15 and 4:11 seem a long way apart. I have never heard of wiggins doing anything approaching it in comps or otherwise.