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  #21  
Old 01-29-11, 22:50
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Originally Posted by ergmonkey View Post
I think Kreuziger needs one solid year of learning, adjusting, and getting stronger while acting in the position of team leader in a GT.

A great season, in my opinion, would be a stage win or two along the way to a GT top-5--and preferably a Giro podium.

From there, he and his supporting cast could build with confidence towards a potential GT win the following year. After so much time riding with both the reduced pressure and the constrained opportunities of being third or fourth or fifth man at Liquigas, Kreuziger might need a transition year.

Long term, I'd much rather see him winning GTs than baby Schleck.
Agreed on the preference of Kreuziger winning a GT over Schlecklet.

We have to remember that grand tour success early in a rider's career isn't the norm and lack of grand tour success relatively early isn't a reason to write someone off. Evans, Sastre, Menchov and others in this generation didn't reach their highest placement in the grand tours until their late 20's and early 30's. Kreuziger still has time to gain experience, endurance and strength to put in a position to contend for the overall.
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  #22  
Old 01-29-11, 23:32
Lanark Lanark is offline
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Agreed on the preference of Kreuziger winning a GT over Schlecklet.

We have to remember that grand tour success early in a rider's career isn't the norm and lack of grand tour success relatively early isn't a reason to write someone off. Evans, Sastre, Menchov and others in this generation didn't reach their highest placement in the grand tours until their late 20's and early 30's. Kreuziger still has time to gain experience, endurance and strength to put in a position to contend for the overall.
But riders like Evans, Sastre and Menchov only started performing really well in GC's from their middle 20's on, and improved untill their late 20's, early 30's. Although there are exceptions, guys like Kreuziger who show incredible results at a very young age (already a great Tour at age 22) tend to peak pretty quickly. I would be suprised if he can keep improving like the more 'moderate growth' guys.
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  #23  
Old 01-30-11, 00:22
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But riders like Evans, Sastre and Menchov only started performing really well in GC's from their middle 20's on, and improved untill their late 20's, early 30's. Although there are exceptions, guys like Kreuziger who show incredible results at a very young age (already a great Tour at age 22) tend to peak pretty quickly. I would be suprised if he can keep improving like the more 'moderate growth' guys.
Evan's wore the pink jersey at the Giro and lost it in rather spectacular fashion relatively early in his road career, having started out as a mountain biker (and I believe world champ). Menchov was a winner of the white jersey at the Tour while riding for Banesto. Sastre was generally riding in the service of others (Hamilton and Basso) until sharing leadership with the Schlecks. I wouldn't give up on Kreuziger just yet.
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  #24  
Old 01-30-11, 00:33
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I put Kreuziger in the same category as Lokvist, Gerdemann, Rogers and Wiggins. They try all year for a GT and get nowhere. Well, Wiggins got 4th one freak year and Rogers was going alright once til he crashed but you get the general idea.
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Old 01-30-11, 01:13
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I put Kreuziger in the same category as Lokvist, Gerdemann, Rogers and Wiggins. They try all year for a GT and get nowhere. Well, Wiggins got 4th one freak year and Rogers was going alright once til he crashed but you get the general idea.
Kreuziger has 2 tdf top 10's and came 11 the third time. That was at age 22. To compare his gt ability to that of Rogers or Gerdermann is just silly. And he is significantly younger than any of the guys you mention.
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  #26  
Old 01-30-11, 01:42
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I didn't really rate Nibali's chances going into last season and how wrong was I... But I still don't see him as a top5 GC rider, yet.

I've always liked Roman but I can't see him with a huge breakthrough in 2011. The Giro will be too tough, the Tour too competitive (top10 at best). Agreed with Moondance about the Vuelta.

Who will be at the Vuelta?

Menchov?
Sanchez?
Contador?
Evans?
Ricco?
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  #27  
Old 01-30-11, 01:48
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I put Kreuziger in the same category as Lokvist, Gerdemann, Rogers and Wiggins. They try all year for a GT and get nowhere. Well, Wiggins got 4th one freak year and Rogers was going alright once til he crashed but you get the general idea.
This is how Roman Kreuziger works all year for a GT.

2010:
1st, Giro di Sardegna (+stage win)
3rd, Paris-Nice
8th, Volta a Catalunya
16th, Tour de Suisse
9th, Tour de France
27th, Vuelta a España

2009:
9th, Vuelta al País Vasco
1st, Tour de Romandie
3rd, Tour de Suisse
9th, Tour de France

2008:
2nd, Tour de Romandie
10th, Tour de Luxembourg
1st, Tour de Suisse
12th, Tour de France

That's working hard and performing in a range of top events from March to September there.

Wiggins, by contrast, prepared for the 2010 Tour by coming 3rd in the Vuelta a Murcía, and soft-pedalling everything else except the Giro prologue.

Rogers is somewhat better at racing all year round (his preparation for the 2010 Tour involved winning the Ruta del Sol and the Tour of California, 6th at Tirreno-Adriatico and 2nd in the Criterium International) but isn't as much of a GC threat as Kreuziger.

Gerdemann is a bit of a misnomer as a comparison; like Evans Gerdemann has the tendency to get excitable and try and win anywhere he can, which means he doesn't tend to save himself for a GT at all. With Gerdemann however, it's more endearing than with Evans because Gerdemann isn't going to win a GT so you don't mind him expending energy. He had a bad Tour because he got into the infamous L'Aquila break and broke his back trying to defend a top 10 position in the Giro.

Apart from Wiggins I can't really see anybody there who you could really describe as only trying for GTs - and even then that's with Wiggins only having the one year's experience of GT-hunting.
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  #28  
Old 01-30-11, 02:55
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Well is kind of weird dont see the dutch team charging and destroying Kreuziger =D

anyway... I like the guys and I really hope that he can learn a lot from Vino... We have seen that He can deliver good results but winning a GT involves a lot of things and Roman still needs to learn a lot and gain more confidence... He is young and have talent and im pretty sure that he can develop much more...

He is targeting Il Giro but I dont see him right know beating Il Cobra Riccó... I dont know if Im being too optimistic but I dont even see Nibali beating Il Cobra in this Giro... but that is another topic =D
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  #29  
Old 01-30-11, 07:17
rmacek rmacek is offline
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Originally Posted by Ryaguas View Post
I like the guys and I really hope that he can learn a lot from Vino... We have seen that He can deliver good results but winning a GT involves a lot of things and Roman still needs to learn a lot and gain more confidence...
I think Vinos treatment has already started. In team presentation in Monaco, Roman said he wants to win Giro. He never said something like that before. And what's more, 2 months ago Roman said he wants podium at Giro. The shift is obvious, this is Vinos treatment! )
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  #30  
Old 01-30-11, 08:23
Lanark Lanark is offline
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Originally Posted by La Pandera View Post
Evan's wore the pink jersey at the Giro and lost it in rather spectacular fashion relatively early in his road career, having started out as a mountain biker (and I believe world champ). Menchov was a winner of the white jersey at the Tour while riding for Banesto. Sastre was generally riding in the service of others (Hamilton and Basso) until sharing leadership with the Schlecks. I wouldn't give up on Kreuziger just yet.
Yeah, like I said, al in their middle 20's, not early 20's. But Kreuziger has barely progressed at all during the last three seasons, his 2008 win in the Tour de Suisse was spectacular, but he has hardly improved at all from then on (if at all). Just compare him to guys like Andy, Gesink and Nibali, he was equal to all them in 2008, but now they are clearly ahead of him. That seems like a more appropriate comparison than Menchov or Evans.

Of course I'm not giving up on Kreuziger, a lot of cycling carreers are weird and unpredictable, but I'm certainly a lot less enthusiastic about his chances as a great GC rider than I was 2 or 3 years ago.
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