Don't think Gilbert has the shape actually, although he doesn't need much shape to win a race like this. Would be funny if BMC remains winless at least.
I think Cancellara will get it, although he'll probably need a gap before the last hill. Either way, I'm really excited for this race. One of the best races of the season and it's live on Norwegian television (but since the organizers decided Sky/EBH didn't deserve an invite it won't get many viewers!).
Oh, and please let there be rain, although it will be awesome nonetheless!