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Old 10-26-12, 13:00
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Default Giro 2013: Stage-by-stage analysis

So, while we're in off season I thought it would be nice to analyze the next Giro route in a deeper way than just a brief comment and a rating.
It would be nice to do the same for the Tour and Vuelta, but I won't do it don't have so much waste time.

STAGE 1: Napoli - Napoli 130 kms




Technical overview:
One of the stages that changed the most since the presentation, and the one that definitely lost almost everything of interest.
The new stage has two different circuits: the first is 16 kms long and will be repeated 4 times. This circuit features a 4th category GPM (cobbled for the most part) that would be interesting if this was the final circuit. That's not the case sadly. The second circuit is very short and totally flat. 8 kms to be repeated 8 times. Almost track racing, if not for the sharp bends the riders will have to face.

What to expect:
It was meant to be a tricky stage, but now it will be a bunch sprint, no questions. The breakaway will have a go on the first circuit and it could be difficult to chase on that final little circuit, but I reckon the sprinters' teams will do the math right.
Having such a short final circuit should also increase the stress in the peloton, so someone will definitely crash.
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WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...

Last edited by Eshnar; 04-20-13 at 18:31.
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Old 10-26-12, 13:02
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STAGE2: Ischia - Forio 17.4 kms TTT




Technical overview:
Very strange TTT, short and twisty. Only 17.4 kms with a lot of false flats (3-4%), especially in the first half. I've
never been in Ischia so I don't know how windy it is. It shouldn't be much.

What to expect:
I expect very small gaps. The average speed won't be high, I guess the winning time will stay well above 20 minutes.

STAGE3: Sorrento - Marina Di Ascea 222 kms




Technical overview:
An interesting medium mountain stage, that can be divided into three parts. The first one goes through the famous coast
of Amalfi, twisty and full of little climbs. The second part is dead flat along the coast. The third part features two
climbs back to back, with the finish immediatly after the final descent. The first of these two climbs have been changed due to a landslip, and the new climb chosen is somewhat harder than the original, but worse linked to the other. Both of them aren't very steep, especially the last one. The final descent, though,
is quite technical and it could create the chance for an attack (there are only two flat kms after it).

What to expect:
This will go either to the break or to a descender (Nibali?) with a late attack. There's no much time to gain on the
descent (10-15 seconds at most), but you have to take into account the time bonus.
__________________
Quote:
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.
Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...

Last edited by Eshnar; 04-19-13 at 08:27.
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Old 10-26-12, 13:03
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STAGE4: Policastro Bussentino - Serra San Bruno 246 kms




Technical overview:
246 kms, 187 of which are along the coast, before two climbs. The first one, to Vibo
Valentia, is little more than a false flat. The second one is the climb of Croce Ferrata, 12.7 kms at 5.5% average.
As you can see on the profile, the first half is steeper than the last one. At the top there are still 5 flat kms to
go before the finish.



What to expect:
Probably a breakaway. If not, a second tier could attack and take the win (and, who knows, the jersey). I'll be very
surprised if gc guys will bother. If they will, this will end in a 30 riders sprint.
__________________
Quote:
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.
Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...

Last edited by Eshnar; 04-19-13 at 10:47.
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Old 10-26-12, 13:04
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STAGE5: Cosenza - Matera 203 kms




Technical overview:
203 kms, most of which along a windy coast and with a hilly finale. A stage not to be underestimated. These are the
final kms:



The wall of Montescaglioso is 3 kms long at over 8% average, with some steeper sections. The final drag to Matera is
approximately 6 kms at 4.5%, with the last 5 kms of false flats. I don't see any sprinter surviving this. Stage hunters
will be pleased with this first week of the Giro...

What to expect:
This is perfect for second tiers, and maybe a small breakaway will take this. In any case there won't be a massive sprint
so everyone has chances.
__________________
Quote:
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.
Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...

Last edited by Eshnar; 04-19-13 at 13:38.
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Old 10-26-12, 13:04
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STAGE6: Mola Di Bari - Margherita Di Savoia 169 kms




Technical overview:
A shortish (169 kms), flat stage with long sections along the coast (with high chance of wind). The riders will pass a first time through the finish before having two laps in a 16 kms long circuit.

What to expect:
Bunch sprint definitely. Only crosswinds could make this interesting.
__________________
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A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.
Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...

Last edited by Eshnar; 04-19-13 at 13:39.
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Old 10-26-12, 13:05
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STAGE7: San Salvo - Pescara 177 kms




Technical overview:
Very hilly stage, 177 kms with only 4 categorised climbs, but there are more of them. The riders will have to face a lot of climbing from the very start of the stage, without long flat sections. Of this lot of climbs, the most famous ones are those of Chieti (the same, very steep walls of the last Tirrenos). After those, 8 kms of flat will lead the peloton to the climb of S.Maria De Criptis, a very irregular climb with a very steep wall at the top. After the short descent there will be a tricky terrain, with a couple of short walls too. After that, finally, the peloton will hit the final wall of San Silvestro, 1.3 kms at 8.5%, with a steeper middle sector. After a technical descent there will be only 4.5 kms left, on flat and straight roads.



What to expect:
Pretty much everything. Imho this stage will go to the breakaway unless a stage hunter keeps control of the race. Gc guys will likely be too worried by stage 8 to make a move. In case the breakaway has been caught, someone could make a move on the final wall though.
__________________
Quote:
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.
Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...

Last edited by Eshnar; 04-19-13 at 13:40.
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Old 10-26-12, 13:06
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STAGE8: Gabicce Mare - Saltara 54.8 kms ITT




Technical overview:
Long and technical ITT. 54.8 kms with a very twisty (and beautiful) first part (through the road of Monte San Bartolo featured
in this year's stage 5). The second part goes through easier roads, including the final climb to Saltara, with a nasty final km.
Last kms:



What to expect:
More than one hour of effort in a very difficult course. Enormous gaps. Wiggins will take around 3 minutes
(probably more) to anyone.
__________________
Quote:
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.
Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...

Last edited by Eshnar; 04-19-13 at 13:42.
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Old 10-26-12, 13:06
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STAGE9: San Sepolcro - Firenze 170 kms




Technical overview:
A classic medium mountain stage course, with 170 kms through 4 categorised climbs, finishing into the next WC host but there won't be the circuit that we'll see next October, unlike what they previously showed us.
After a gentle start, the riders will climb Passo Della Consuma (16 kms at 4.4%, including flat sections that lower the average gradient), Vallombrosa (11.5 kms at 6%) and Vetta Le Croci (4 kms at 9%), before entering the WC circuit from the bottom of Fiesole and climbing what they will descend at the worlds. The peloton will then descend the side they'll be climbing at the WC and have 4 kms of flat before the final drag of 2 kms at 3%. The climb to Fiesole (2.7 kms at 6%), perfectly linked with Vetta Le Croci, should be enough to see some action (maybe the previous climb too).




What to expect:
The next day is a rest so gc-guys will give a try. Plus this stage is after the huge ITT so a lot of guys will start to hurry and try to regain time.
__________________
Quote:
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.
Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...

Last edited by Eshnar; 04-19-13 at 13:43.
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Old 10-26-12, 13:07
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STAGE 10: Cordenons - Altopiano Del Montasio 167 kms




Technical overview:
After the rest day, the peloton will restart full gas to tackle the first MTF of the race. The menu features two climbs the Giro never used in its history: the Passo Cason Di Lanza and the Altopiano Del Montasio. Of the 167 kms of the stage, the first 90 are a long and gentle false flat. Then, after a non categorised climb, leading the peloton into the town of Paularo, the riders will start the first top-category climb of the race.



After a very technical descent to Pontebba, 12 kms of descending false flat will bring the peloton to Chiusaforte, where the last climb officially starts.



The first 11 kms are just a false flat, but this climb is a genuine HC (or 1st in the Giro, whatever) even without them.

What to expect:
The top gc guys will start the battle on the last climb steepest section no doubt. The Passo Cason Di Lanza will see the formation of a counter-breakaway made of 5-6 second tiers, with 4-5 minutes of gap in gc. This, unless the ITT had produced a disaster in gc (if Wiggo has 4 minutes on everyone I expect something more to happen).
__________________
Quote:
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.
Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...

Last edited by Eshnar; 04-19-13 at 13:47.
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Old 10-26-12, 13:08
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STAGE11: Tarvisio (Cave Del Predil) - Vajont (Erto E Casso) 182 kms




Technical overview:
Another medium mountain stage, 182 kms with the long, steady climb of Sella Ciampigotto (approx. 30 kms at 4%) and the final "MTF", the Vajont (Passo Di Sant'Osvaldo). There were two kms of flat after the climb, but now they've been dropped, so this is an uphill sprint. In between, lots of valleys.
This is the final climb:



What to expect:
Uphill sprint. Before I was sure this would have gone to the breakaway but with the change I'm pretty sure the favourites will want the bonus seconds.
__________________
Quote:
A race that doesn't give an attacker the chance to finish it off alone is not a race anymore.
Bronze Medal at the Great Grand Tour Game 2012

WARNING: Location says Germany, but I'm Italian...

Last edited by Eshnar; 04-19-13 at 13:46.
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