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Old 03-28-09, 05:19
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Default Early Giro predictions...

Despite all the hoopla surrounding Astana, I'm thinking both Levi and Andreas are the real threats in this year's Giro. Both are excellent time-trialists, and there is a nasty +60km test. At that length, many of the pure climbers can lose many minutes. Plus, Astana will have a perfect tryout for the wannabe TdF super-domestiques. Think about it. Armstrong, Contador, Kloden, and Leipheimer - 14 grand tour podiums - as the backbone. Who in the pro peloton would not want to fill out the final five spots? While I think Contador is the only one who has a chance in hell to podium in the TdF, the races leading up to it will see a very strong Astana, with everyone seeking to make the roster.

(Aside: Armstrong needs to quell the internal disputes,admitting his recognition that he isn't the cyclist he was four years ago. Else wise, Astana will implode. E.g. Astana only succeeds in the TdF if Lance curbs his ego.)

So what I'm seeing is a really strong team heading into the Giro, with points to prove, and spots to make, rallying around one of two teammates that can realistically podium in the Giro. And that is not Lance. It is the top real lieutenants for Contador in the upcoming TdF that will be trying out.

So my prediction: Levi is going to win this year's Giro. Andreas will finish third. Lance will DNF


Tear it apart forum members. But offer honest counter-prognastications.
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Last edited by benpounder; 03-28-09 at 05:36.
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Old 03-28-09, 09:12
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I have bet 2 quids on pellizotti or however you spell his name, italian fellow at liquigas. I think he is 16/1, 3rd last year only a few seconds behind the guy in 2nd.


I think Klodi the great rider that he is will be happy as usually being a team mate for someone else(for whatever reason he enjoys this), and I think Leipi might have started his season too soon, there's still over a month till the giro and looks like he was on top for california. Although both of these fellows have a great chance to win it. Infact I was looking for odds on levi to win the giro but didn't see them.

Last edited by palmerq; 03-28-09 at 09:15.
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Old 03-28-09, 09:46
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I think the safe money in the Giro is on the Italians. There are several riders that are going to be up there competing that have no chance or interest in riding the Tour and if they did history has shown that they are never really successful. Basso being the exception but he hasn't been that into the giro as much as other italians.
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Old 03-28-09, 09:56
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I think You could be right about your Astana predictions. If Levi is 100% and he wants to go for it he can win the Giro, no doubt.

I don't agree with you on your Tour remarks. I think Leipheimer can make it to the tour podium.

Other favorites for me are: Basso, i never thought he would be great again but he really suprised me in the Tirreno. He might be good without. Franco Pellizotti has to that he can repeat, i don't expect him to. I don't know about donkey man Bruzeghin. He did a great job last 2 years, but i don't know what he really can do. I'm sorry to touch this topic, but the problem i have with last Giro is that no-one knows who used and who didn't. I think it's fair to say last years Giro is not a good prediction for this year. I heard Di Luca saying he is better than last year, he might be back but has to miss his favorite rides before the giro this year. He might mis some competition on the highest level. Simoni is a little bit old imo. Cunego might be back on the podium this year, he seems to concentrate on the giro again.
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Old 03-28-09, 09:57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingsve View Post
Basso being the exception but he hasn't been that into the giro as much as other italians.
He won the Giro in an overwhelming way ( it was the year he got suspended).
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Old 03-28-09, 10:04
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Difficult to offer honest "prognstications" to such a piece of day dreaming.
Much as I would like to see Levi ride the Giro in earnest, he won't be allowed.
Kloden isn't even pencilled in, as yet.

Why is it all these threads start off looking at things from the same, one team standpoint? It's almost as if the other 180 riders are simply there to get kicked about by the Astana "All Stars".

If Lance doesn't make it, Levi will get sent with a similar strength team to that of Contador's at Paris-Nice.

The only prediction I'll make that I'm certain of, at this stage, is, In terms of exciting racing on a daily basis, the Giro will kick the Tour's b*tt.
No week long respite here. Dolomites half way through week one. Alps, Apeninnes,(where the race could be won or lost of 3 successive days)rounded off on the slopes of the Blockhaus and Versuvius.

Other than that, look to the men in pale green.
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Old 03-28-09, 11:04
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Hard to go past the Italians, not sure Astana will look for the win to be honest. Basso will see this as his nmber 1 race this year so why not.
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Old 03-28-09, 13:53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bartoli View Post
He won the Giro in an overwhelming way ( it was the year he got suspended).
Yes, of course he did but my point was that unlike most other Italian riders Bassos main goal was almost always the Tour rather than the Giro while other italian riders never really sacrificed the Giro in favour of the Tour.
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Old 03-28-09, 17:26
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My favorite for this year's Giro is Basso. He has stated is is going for the Giro-Vuelta double this year. And he will put everything he has into winning the Giro.

I do believe that the stage 12 ITT will be a deceive stage but it is not a traditional TT course. All of the riders that have ridden it so far have stated that it is very technical and there is barely any straight sections and is always going up or down. I believe most riders will opt for regular road bikes.
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Old 03-28-09, 19:15
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I'm looking forward to the Liquigas/LPR show and the real return of Basso - he's given some teasers as to his form and he'll want this possibly more than anybody in the field. Plus which the Italians will be desperate not to let what happened last year happen again when Contador got towed to MTF after MTF. It's no way to win a GT and this is a big one, the centenary of the race.

The parcours looks great but the problem the Giro sometimes has is that the racing is too hard and, like last year, riders end up grovelling their way to the top rather than being able to put in significant attacks - which really does play into the hands of the TTers and makes the race revolve around 60 kms.

Considering that the USDiscatana 'All Stars' have had their b*tts kicked more often than not this season, they really aren't the team to beat. In fact, if you consider the way Rabobank took them apart in Paris-Nice (and what happened when Caisse used the same tactic in stage 1 of Castille Leon), Astana are very much the team who get beaten. I really don't get the Leipheimer hype - if he's ever to win a GT, then it's most likely to be the Vuelta. He simply doesn't have Contador's natural class.
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