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  #321  
Old 01-15-11, 03:37
Ferminal Ferminal is offline
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I'm a bit unsure on how the race will play out. Because there are so many sprinters none of them might win multiple stages, which means consistency and placings is most important.

If say the winners went like this - Greipel, Cavendish, Goss, Chicchi, Rojas, Farrar. It would come down to who finished 2nd/3rd the most, who won the intermediates, or who (if any) got time on the harder stages. This also opens the door to an adventurous non-sprinter (say Ballan) to win a stage with a 5s gap - that would almost be enough to take the GC.

The only rider with the potential to dominate the four flat sprint stages is Cavendish... its too tough for Greipel or Farrar to win more than 1-2. Davis is a bit of an uncertainty for me, his form is definitely better than last year, but if he was in peak shape he would have been in the leading group last week.

I will probably back Cavendish, Goss and Rojas for the overall plus a few non-sprinters as cover.
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  #322  
Old 01-15-11, 13:10
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jens_attacks jens_attacks is offline
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still no tour down under on bet365...


for the overall i will pick greipel and goss.
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  #323  
Old 01-16-11, 20:00
Badeend Badeend is offline
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Odds available on bet365!

How fit will Armstrong be? I cant imagine he trained like a real pro this winter just for this race. But the results of Bobridge in the last 2 years at TDU arent good either. 97th in 2010, 65th in 2009
Lance Armstrong 2.00 vs Jack Bobridge 1.71
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  #324  
Old 01-16-11, 20:10
Badeend Badeend is offline
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On Sportingbet Greipel vs Goss 1.85 each

2010: Greipel 1 - Goss 73
2009: Goss 52
2008: Greipel 1 - Goss 97
2007: Goss 32
2006: Goss 50

I see value on Greipel ...
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  #325  
Old 01-16-11, 23:06
Badeend Badeend is offline
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Bet taken on Greipel. On Sportingbet Goss even has become the favorite to win TDU . In the Lotto team everything is about Greipel, he won TDU twice. Goss is just one of the fast men at HTC, he'll definitely has to work for Cavendish. Today he was 'lucky' with that crash, otherwise it will be all for Cav.
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  #326  
Old 01-16-11, 23:51
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gizzajob gizzajob is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Badeend View Post
How fit will Armstrong be? I cant imagine he trained like a real pro this winter just for this race. But the results of Bobridge in the last 2 years at TDU arent good either. 97th in 2010, 65th in 2009
Lance Armstrong 2.00 vs Jack Bobridge 1.71
LA's tweets have been about his charity work so not sure his mind is on racing this race, whereas Jack Bobridge is in great form and has top-10 aspirations:

http://eastern-courier-messenger.whereilive.com.au/news/story/tour-down-under-2011-jacks-home-ground-advantage/

I have just taken Bobridge in this matchup at 2.00 but now has moved to 1.83. Still seems good value.
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  #327  
Old 01-17-11, 10:02
Badeend Badeend is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gizzajob View Post
LA's tweets have been about his charity work so not sure his mind is on racing this race, whereas Jack Bobridge is in great form and has top-10 aspirations:

http://eastern-courier-messenger.whereilive.com.au/news/story/tour-down-under-2011-jacks-home-ground-advantage/

I have just taken Bobridge in this matchup at 2.00 but now has moved to 1.83. Still seems good value.
At what bookie was that? At bet365 it was 1.71 and now 1.66, too low.
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  #328  
Old 01-17-11, 14:04
Ferminal Ferminal is offline
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I've taken equal units on:

Cavendish @ 11
Davis @ 11
Rojas @ 15

All with Bet365, I'll wait for 1-2 stages and hopefully Goss drifts at which point I'll look to back him.

Also small bets on:

C. Meyer @ 41
Bobridge @ 51
Ballan @ 101 (Centrebet)

Unlike a lot of the internationals, Meyer and Bobridge are in top form at this time of the season. If Farrar struggles they will get a license to have a go and might just get lucky. Ballan may be out to prove something (and Stage 3 is an ideal finish for him).

Not keen on any stage H2H bets, need to take a look first, see who is leader, see if anyone is way out of form. Small bet on Cav @ 3 simply because it's awesome odds compared to the end of last season

Last edited by Ferminal; 01-17-11 at 14:12.
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  #329  
Old 01-17-11, 15:05
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Timmy-loves-Rabo Timmy-loves-Rabo is offline
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felliu @ 51 for the win ($10)

stage 1;
brown @ 51 ($10)
Ciolek @ 41 ($5)
felliu @ 81 ($5)

realize these have little chance, but what the hell
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  #330  
Old 01-17-11, 15:46
Badeend Badeend is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timmy-loves-Rabo View Post
felliu @ 51 for the win ($10)

stage 1;
brown @ 51 ($10)
Ciolek @ 41 ($5)
felliu @ 81 ($5)

realize these have little chance, but what the hell
If you want to get rid of your money i can always give you my paypal
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