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I Hate to do this but Brad Wiggins

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22 Jul 2009 03:31

dienekes88 wrote:
So what are your predictions? Discussing the model is fun... but not as much fun as applying it. At the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding, and let's get a guess out of you!


Original message not directed to me but I did the calculations anyway. Here are my predictions:

Input Data:
Wiggins Weight: 71 Kg, No head wind or tail wind
Contador's Weight: 61 Kg, No head wind or tail wind

If both Wiggins and Contador are fully recuperated (100% to what they showed in Verbier, W/kg) then:

1':8" Wiggins over Contador

But as we all know there is horrible mountain stage before the TT, so maybe I expect Contador to be more recuperated than Wiggins so the prediction for this scenario will be:

0:38" Wiggins over Contador

Let's wait and see what happens in the stage to Grand Bornand and make better predictions with those numbers then.:)
User avatar Escarabajo
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22 Jul 2009 09:21

dienekes88 wrote:
Please let me know where I went wrong.


'00 Tour was 3 662.5 km. ref: Here
mercuryrising
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22 Jul 2009 13:34

mercuryrising wrote:'00 Tour was 3 662.5 km. ref: Here


Fair enough. That'll teach me to rely on cyclingnews.com... :D
dienekes88
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22 Jul 2009 13:50

Escarabajo wrote:Original message not directed to me but I did the calculations anyway. Here are my predictions:

Input Data:
Wiggins Weight: 71 Kg, No head wind or tail wind
Contador's Weight: 61 Kg, No head wind or tail wind

If both Wiggins and Contador are fully recuperated (100% to what they showed in Verbier, W/kg) then:

1':8" Wiggins over Contador

But as we all know there is horrible mountain stage before the TT, so maybe I expect Contador to be more recuperated than Wiggins so the prediction for this scenario will be:

0:38" Wiggins over Contador


Very conservative estimate. Are you predicting their weight loss through the Tour too!? Hahaha. Good call.

Can't you dream big? Don't you believe in miracles? ;)

You have been pretty convincing with the effect of the tough tough days... and I recognize that 2'08" might be a little too hopeful. However, you guys have to remember that Contador lost 2'18" to Levi and 1'27" to Cadel Evans at the end of the 2007 Tour. He has improved since then, but so has Twiggo.

Modern twiggo v. Leipheimer? We saw that in the opening TT. Even with the weight penalty, Twiggo beat Leipheimer by 11 seconds. Contador's massive weight advantage equalized the difference in power.

Let's wait and see what happens in the stage to Grand Bornand and make better predictions with those numbers then.:)


Good idea, but it'll be tough to control for the fact that this is a TT, i.e. not at the end of a stage.

I wonder if that's a good argument for using the performances at Verbier. Today's so hard that nobody will even come close to their peak outputs.
dienekes88
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22 Jul 2009 15:55

So after today, is Wiggins still doped to his eyeballs?

Physics says he can do it on one stage (watts/kg), experience/pedigree says not on consecutive ones. Refills would allow him the latter.

He's clean.
User avatar Parrot23
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22 Jul 2009 16:02

Parrot23 wrote:So after today, is Wiggins still doped to his eyeballs?

Physics says he can do it on one stage (watts/kg), experience/pedigree says not on consecutive ones. Refills would allow him the latter.

He's clean.


He only lost a minute to Kloeden and Armstrong after 4 1cat climbs and the last 2 climbs were 8km at 8-9%. I wouldn't go out on a limb yet, although I agree it 'looks' more trustworthy.
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22 Jul 2009 16:34

whatever he's on, he didn't get a top-up on the rest day.

Was it Bernard Kohl that said the effects are felt on the second day?
keen_but_slow
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22 Jul 2009 16:45

keen_but_slow wrote:whatever he's on, he didn't get a top-up on the rest day.

Was it Bernard Kohl that said the effects are felt on the second day?

Still looked very good to me. And depends on the competition also.;)
We will never know how Kohl would have done in this year's tour anyway.
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22 Jul 2009 17:35

Parrot23 wrote:So after today, is Wiggins still doped to his eyeballs?

Physics says he can do it on one stage (watts/kg), experience/pedigree says not on consecutive ones. Refills would allow him the latter.

He's clean.


Hmmm... inconsistency = clean? I guess Kashechkin and Vinokourov were clean. Hamilton and Landis too. ;)

The suggestion that consistency is doping would implicate a lot of riders, e.g. Evans (up until this Tour), Sastre (again up until this Tour), etc.

I don't think strict performance can be a measure of clean vs. doped the way the LeMond wishes it could be. You have to go out there and measure the blood directly. There are TOO MANY factors that influence a performance on a given day.

Some guys actually get rest and recover their legs on rest days. Knowing how you have to ride and recover on a rest day is something only experience can give you. Vande Velde and Schleck the Elder clearly handled the rest day pretty well. They improved their level and were closer to some of the younger guys who rode away on the slopes of Verbier: Nibali, Contador, Schleck the Younger. Or you could just say they were doped (I'd rather not think so), 'cause how could Vande Velde hold onto a pretty elite group when he lost 2'41" at Verbier? If you're going to use consistency as a marker for doping, you should apply it to everyone... even your favorites.

Back to Twiggo, though... I think I might've acted like an overly excitable Cat. 4. We'll see how he recovers from today's efforts. I'm hoping he just rode within himself to limit his losses, but I didn't see pictures of him cresting the final climb or finishing.

At the moment, I have to say the advantage is going in the way of the more conservative estimates.

C'mon, TWIGGO!
dienekes88
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22 Jul 2009 18:02

dienekes88 wrote:...'cause how could Vande Velde hold onto a pretty elite group when he lost 2'41" at Verbier? If you're going to use consistency as a marker for doping, you should apply it to everyone... even your favorites.


The problem is that not everyone dopes the same. Amount, frecuency, type, quality, etc. Others take bigger risks. So we can only judge based on individual efforts.
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22 Jul 2009 19:55

The pt. with consistency is that Wiggo is an interloper; the others are not. A relative newbie to GTs riding consistently with the leaders on consecutive mountain days doesn't make a whole lot of sense, whatever the absolute engine/weight. With time/experience in GTs (and/or refills, etc.), Wiggo might develop better ability to "recover" during a GT. Right now he has neither; if he did, there would be a lot more grounds for suspicion--which isn't to say there are none.
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22 Jul 2009 20:16

dienekes88 wrote:So what are your predictions? Discussing the model is fun... but not as much fun as applying it. At the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding, and let's get a guess out of you!


Oh well, now I'm on the line. Usually I don't do prediction. Only under very rare circumstances. Now, what I'm saying is not based on any model whatsoever, simply because I have no real data beside viewing stages.

Anyway, I think that Bertie didn't exert himself too much, I'm not so sure about Wiggins. Also, I'm not sure how well Wiggins will recover in the third week. He hasn't done too many GT and his third week in the Giro wasn't great (probably on purpose though). Hard to say. Let's say Wiggins gains 30" over Contador who's a very accomplished TT'ist himself. A. Schleck will lose 1'30" on Bertie but only 30-40" on LA. Kloden is hard to read. It looked like he bonked today, so maybe one should put him around a LA time. On the other hand, he did a great ITT in the first stage. I hope Nibali can recoup some time as well. He's only 1'14" behind LA. I would hope he could make time on him. I'd love to see a bunch of young riders in the top 5. Contador, Schleck*2, Wiggins, Nibali. It looks like the time of Evans, Sastre, Menchov, Leipheimer is coming to an end. They should take LA with them.

Anyway, as my last prediction, I predict that reality will disagree with everything else I wrote above. In that way, I'm guaranteed to be right on at least one account.
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22 Jul 2009 21:44

Cobblestones wrote:Oh well, now I'm on the line. Usually I don't do prediction. Only under very rare circumstances. Now, what I'm saying is not based on any model whatsoever, simply because I have no real data beside viewing stages.


Hahaha... There's no harm in hazarding a guess. Some people may skewer you for it, but if they do, then they're missing out on the fun!

Anyway, I think that Bertie didn't exert himself too much, I'm not so sure about Wiggins. Also, I'm not sure how well Wiggins will recover in the third week. He hasn't done too many GT and his third week in the Giro wasn't great (probably on purpose though). Hard to say. Let's say Wiggins gains 30" over Contador who's a very accomplished TT'ist himself. A. Schleck will lose 1'30" on Bertie but only 30-40" on LA. Kloden is hard to read. It looked like he bonked today, so maybe one should put him around a LA time. On the other hand, he did a great ITT in the first stage. I hope Nibali can recoup some time as well. He's only 1'14" behind LA. I would hope he could make time on him. I'd love to see a bunch of young riders in the top 5. Contador, Schleck*2, Wiggins, Nibali. It looks like the time of Evans, Sastre, Menchov, Leipheimer is coming to an end. They should take LA with them.


So you're saying:
Wiggins
Contador @ 30"
(hopefully) Nibali?
Kloeden @ 1'20"
Armstrong @ 1'20"
Schleck @ 2'00"

To put it in writing... my somewhat excitable predictions were:
Wiggins
Armstrong @ 53"
Contador @ 2'02"

I got some work to do, but I'll look at Andy Schleck's, Nibali's, and Kloeden's rides at Verbier to predict some TT times later tonight... possibly adjusted for how they looked today (very qualitative assessment = introduce a lot of error).

You're right. Kloeden looked pretty gassed. I don't know if it was a bonk, though. I think he just went so far over the limit to match the acceleration of the Schleck Brothers and was riding at an uncomfortably high pace. That really sapped his energy. I wouldn't be surprised if we measured a blood lactate at the top of the climb in excess of his maximal lactate steady state... 10-12 mmol/L? Possible. Higher than that? Again, possible.

Armstrong looked pretty good. Sitting on Twiggo's wheel (he's tall and has a decent draft) at the lower climbing rate meant that he could recover and surge to catch Kloeden.

Nibali... very impressive, but he's headstrong. He took off on the descent and was picked up later. I don't think that is a good thing for his TT... though he's a pretty talented time triallist. He may risk it all and go over the limit too early. He was good on Verbier and solid today, but he's still young. Wait for it... and he may have a lot to learn... ;) about his limits and his abilities in the third week of a Grand Tour.

Wiggo. I really have to reiterate that I hope he rode within himself. Otherwise my prediction is going to be CRAP! :D

Anyway, as my last prediction, I predict that reality will disagree with everything else I wrote above. In that way, I'm guaranteed to be right on at least one account.


HA. Nice.
dienekes88
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22 Jul 2009 23:24

Looking back at my quick calculations from before, I realized that I had used Dr. Ferrari's estimates of Lance's wattage without checking it against my statistical model. I corrected my math (which some of you take issue with anyway...), and it actually increased the time gap between LA and AC. Interesting.

Based on today's form, I made a new set of estimates. I'm still going to say that Twiggo is going to win, but by a slightly smaller amount. Beyond that, I still hope against all hope that he'll beat Contador by 2'00"!

My "trying to maintain hope and excitement for Twiggo" predictions:
Wiggins -
Armstrong @ 35"
Kloeden @ 45"
A. Schleck @ 1'08"
Contador @ 2'00"
Nibali @ 2'15"

Kloeden was very clearly riding for Armstrong on the climb, so I can't make an estimate based on his climb of Verbier... his time is pretty much a random guess.
dienekes88
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22 Jul 2009 23:38

Parrot23 wrote:So after today, is Wiggins still doped to his eyeballs?

Physics says he can do it on one stage (watts/kg), experience/pedigree says not on consecutive ones. Refills would allow him the latter.

He's clean as a mumbai slum.


there, fixed for you
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23 Jul 2009 00:04

blackcat wrote:there, fixed for you


To each his own.

Gratuitous cynicism has never been a virtue in anyone's books.

One can still be realistic and make distinctions without lumping everyone....

NB: the irony is that a lot of people living in slums like those in Mumbai are not as corrupted as we in the West would think they are. Can often find virtue in odd places, among poor people. That's a paradox undifferentiated cynics miss.
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23 Jul 2009 00:07

Parrot23 wrote:To each his own.

Gratuitous cynicism has never been a virtue in anyone's books.

One can still be realistic and make distinctions without lumping everyone....

NB: the irony is that a lot of people living in slums like those in Mumbai are not as corrupted as we in the West are, or would like to believe they are. Often find virtue in odd places, among poor people. That's a paradox undifferentiated cynics miss.

Mumbai slums are not clean. No comment on corruption. But please, go back to sticking your head in the sand with Wiggins.
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23 Jul 2009 00:08

blackcat wrote:Mumbai slums are not clean. No comment on corruption. But please, go back to sticking your head in the sand with Wiggins.


Doping is about corruption of ethics, bright light. Not sanitation.
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23 Jul 2009 00:10

Was Wiggins clean on the track?
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23 Jul 2009 00:11

Bala Verde wrote:Was Wiggins clean on the track?


Bala, I don't know, so I can't jump to conclusions on that one. No idea. Am just looking at him now; not looking to defend his track career. Not a fanboy.

One thing: Boardman and he tend to have a squeaky clean reputation. Granted, that's NOT saying much about Wiggo now.

It's not as if they already have a really shadey rep. like DiLuca.
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