Cobblestones wrote:Oh well, now I'm on the line. Usually I don't do prediction. Only under very rare circumstances. Now, what I'm saying is not based on any model whatsoever, simply because I have no real data beside viewing stages.
Hahaha... There's no harm in hazarding a guess. Some people may skewer you for it, but if they do, then they're missing out on the fun!
Anyway, I think that Bertie didn't exert himself too much, I'm not so sure about Wiggins. Also, I'm not sure how well Wiggins will recover in the third week. He hasn't done too many GT and his third week in the Giro wasn't great (probably on purpose though). Hard to say. Let's say Wiggins gains 30" over Contador who's a very accomplished TT'ist himself. A. Schleck will lose 1'30" on Bertie but only 30-40" on LA. Kloden is hard to read. It looked like he bonked today, so maybe one should put him around a LA time. On the other hand, he did a great ITT in the first stage. I hope Nibali can recoup some time as well. He's only 1'14" behind LA. I would hope he could make time on him. I'd love to see a bunch of young riders in the top 5. Contador, Schleck*2, Wiggins, Nibali. It looks like the time of Evans, Sastre, Menchov, Leipheimer is coming to an end. They should take LA with them.
So you're saying:
Contador @ 30"
Kloeden @ 1'20"
Armstrong @ 1'20"
Schleck @ 2'00"
To put it in writing... my somewhat excitable predictions were:
Armstrong @ 53"
Contador @ 2'02"
I got some work to do, but I'll look at Andy Schleck's, Nibali's, and Kloeden's rides at Verbier to predict some TT times later tonight... possibly adjusted for how they looked today (very qualitative assessment = introduce a lot of error).
You're right. Kloeden looked pretty gassed. I don't know if it was a bonk, though. I think he just went so far over the limit to match the acceleration of the Schleck Brothers and was riding at an uncomfortably high pace. That really sapped his energy. I wouldn't be surprised if we measured a blood lactate at the top of the climb in excess of his maximal lactate steady state... 10-12 mmol/L? Possible. Higher than that? Again, possible.
Armstrong looked pretty good. Sitting on Twiggo's wheel (he's tall and has a decent draft) at the lower climbing rate meant that he could recover and surge to catch Kloeden.
Nibali... very impressive, but he's headstrong. He took off on the descent and was picked up later. I don't think that is a good thing for his TT... though he's a pretty talented time triallist. He may risk it all and go over the limit too early. He was good on Verbier and solid today, but he's still young. Wait for it... and he may have a lot to learn...
about his limits and his abilities in the third week of a Grand Tour.
Wiggo. I really have to reiterate that I hope he rode within himself. Otherwise my prediction is going to be CRAP!
Anyway, as my last prediction, I predict that reality will disagree with everything else I wrote above. In that way, I'm guaranteed to be right on at least one account.