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Cardiac Anomalies - is something going on or is this normal?

The Clinic is the only place on Cyclingnews where you can discuss doping-related issues. Ask questions, discuss positives or improvements to procedures.

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Re: Re:

13 Apr 2018 17:55

Random Direction wrote:Interesting geographic distribution of the teams with the most cardiac events noted.
And which conclusion is it leading you to jump to?
User avatar fmk_RoI
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14 Apr 2018 05:40

There is a good reason why i simply saod interesting. A grouping of data points does not lead to a conclusion, simply a need to understand why the data is behaving in the way it does. A trail to look at in more detail, yes, a hypothesis or conclusion, no.

Why not be curious about numbers? Better than fighting over them. Want to be my friend?
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Re:

14 Apr 2018 09:38

Random Direction wrote:There is a good reason why i simply saod interesting. A grouping of data points does not lead to a conclusion, simply a need to understand why the data is behaving in the way it does. A trail to look at in more detail, yes, a hypothesis or conclusion, no.

Why not be curious about numbers? Better than fighting over them. Want to be my friend?
Your hypothesis appears to involve mis-reading teams where I was clear I had provided a list of sponsors, and looking for a regional angle, Belgium. What else is it saying?
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Re: Re:

14 Apr 2018 13:34

[..... A trail to look at in more detail, yes, a hypothesis or conclusion, no.

[/quote]Your hypothesis appears ...[/quote]

He said "no hypothesis" :rolleyes:
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Re: Re:

14 Apr 2018 13:45

Le breton wrote:He said "no hypothesis" :rolleyes:
And I am saying there clearly is a hypothesis, given the way Random Direction has spun what was actually said.
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Re: Re:

14 Apr 2018 16:55

Le breton wrote:..... A trail to look at in more detail, yes, a hypothesis or conclusion, no.

fmk_RoI wrote:Your hypothesis appears ... (shortened for brevity)


He said "no hypothesis" :rolleyes:

If you can't quote another member correctly then don't do it at all.

The Mods.. :)
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15 Apr 2018 05:10

My friend (I'll call you that because I like your tough side), a hypothesis is much stronger than simple exploration of ideas. There is insufficient data for a hypothesis, yet enough to sniff around, kinda like a dog following a scent. Most likely leads to nothing, once in a while leads to a rotting fish on a beach.
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Re:

15 Apr 2018 09:03

Random Direction wrote:My friend (I'll call you that because I like your tough side), a hypothesis is much stronger than simple exploration of ideas. There is insufficient data for a hypothesis, yet enough to sniff around, kinda like a dog following a scent. Most likely leads to nothing, once in a while leads to a rotting fish on a beach.
Why so coy? Why not say where this could possibly lead, why not explain the obvious avenues to examine? Can't you think of them?
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16 Apr 2018 04:58

Of course I can interpret data mon ami. Have multiple published papers on the subject. However since it appears that my friend is looking to both create and win an Internet argument, I prefer to find out what is behind the gruff exterior. Usually there is a soft undernourished piece inside - the trick is to find a way to it.

On cardiac abnormalities, my family has been a struck with that. In familiar case, I'd call it a combination of over training and stress. For much more talented athletes like professional cyclists, there is likely some of that too.

Spatial aggregation - chance, confirmation bias, or an indicative cluster? In a normal population, likely one of the first two. Are cyclists normal?
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Re:

16 Apr 2018 08:40

Random Direction wrote:Spatial aggregation - chance, confirmation bias, or an indicative cluster? In a normal population, likely one of the first two. Are cyclists normal?
So you wouldn't begin by questioning the validity of the data?

We've got a list of riders drawn from 'cross, conti and pro-conti teams, as well as World Tour. We know we don't know all the cases at below WT level, just the newsworthy ones, so we know we're dealing with incomplete data there. What impact does that have on the data?

Even at WT level, what confidence can we have that we have (near) complete data? Do we have data from former WT riders who spent the last years of their career riding at lower levels? How about data on former WT riders who, post retirement, have been diagnosed with a cardiac anomaly, surely they should be on the list too, but surely we can't possibly have all the data on them, they're not all likely to put out a press release saying they've just had a flutter, are they?

The list of sponsors itself - what is it? If the cases included cover a ten year period, 2009-2018, then some of the teams those riders rode for are from back in the mid-nineties, so we've got a list of sponsors from a quarter of a century. Are sponsors who have been in the sport longer than others more represented simply by having been there? Are sponsors who have sponsored teams at multiple levels - development and professional teams, cross and road teams - more represented simply by having been there? What is the churn rate of riders at the different teams the sponsors have been involved with - have some been quite stable while others have been all change all the time? Do we differentiate sponsors by where they appear in a team name, or just treat all name sponsors as being equal? Why aren't we including other sponsors?

Way, way, way before you even begin thinking about clusters, surely you have to ask whether or not the data isn't itself just a cluster****?

As I said: playing joining the dots is easy...
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16 Apr 2018 09:13

Could there, and this is a pretty horrible thought imho, but could there be a just toughen it up mentality in Belgium/the Netherlands?
According to Meersman while a French doctor advised him to stop, a Belgian one advised him to continue. And... didn't Myngheer already have a warning, yet continued? Of course, can't have been easy having - probably - chased a dream your whole life, only to be told that your health may not be strong enough. For Vansummeren and Meersman I suppose it was a lot easier to just walk away.
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16 Apr 2018 09:30

I think it's likely that the reason Belgium seems to top the list is purely a correlation with the profile of cycling and cyclists in Belgium.
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Re:

16 Apr 2018 09:45

RedheadDane wrote:Could there, and this is a pretty horrible thought imho, but could there be a just toughen it up mentality in Belgium/the Netherlands?
According to Meersman while a French doctor advised him to stop, a Belgian one advised him to continue. And... didn't Myngheer already have a warning, yet continued? Of course, can't have been easy having - probably - chased a dream your whole life, only to be told that your health may not be strong enough. For Vansummeren and Meersman I suppose it was a lot easier to just walk away.
Vansummeren, Meersman and Myngheer - and the sponsors of the various teams they rode for - are all in the list...
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16 Apr 2018 09:58

I know. I was just wondering what makes some people walk away - like Vansummeren and Meersman - while others continue and pay the ultimate prize - like Myngheer.
Though, I guess a guy like Goolaerts didn't actually continue, he just didn't know... :sad:
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Re:

16 Apr 2018 10:04

Random Direction wrote:There is a good reason why i simply saod interesting. A grouping of data points does not lead to a conclusion, simply a need to understand why the data is behaving in the way it does. A trail to look at in more detail, yes, a hypothesis or conclusion, no.

Why not be curious about numbers? Better than fighting over them. Want to be my friend?


Assuming the data is suitably complete, the obvious next step is to consider the numbers of riders on teams in these countries compared with others before we start theorising about potential causes of a pattern that may not exist.
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Re: Re:

16 Apr 2018 10:06

simoni wrote:
Random Direction wrote:There is a good reason why i simply saod interesting. A grouping of data points does not lead to a conclusion, simply a need to understand why the data is behaving in the way it does. A trail to look at in more detail, yes, a hypothesis or conclusion, no.

Why not be curious about numbers? Better than fighting over them. Want to be my friend?


Assuming the data is suitably complete, the obvious next step is to consider the numbers of riders on teams in these countries compared with others before we start theorising about potential causes of a pattern that may not exist.
You've been told the data is not complete.
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Re: Re:

16 Apr 2018 10:54

fmk_RoI wrote:
simoni wrote:
Random Direction wrote:There is a good reason why i simply saod interesting. A grouping of data points does not lead to a conclusion, simply a need to understand why the data is behaving in the way it does. A trail to look at in more detail, yes, a hypothesis or conclusion, no.

Why not be curious about numbers? Better than fighting over them. Want to be my friend?


Assuming the data is suitably complete, the obvious next step is to consider the numbers of riders on teams in these countries compared with others before we start theorising about potential causes of a pattern that may not exist.
You've been told the data is not complete.


OK, step one is then to try and understand if what we know represents a reasonable sample to take things further. Verifying this may well be impossible.
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17 Apr 2018 00:14

If I may step in just for a sec...

Hypothesis means it's just the mere idea that things can happen.

Theory means it's an experiment that scientifically can be recreated. (By virtue of mathematical equations and such.)

Very big difference, yet so subtle at the same time.

Now, going back to what our (very angry) brother fmk_Rol had posted earlier - there can be no true theory on endurance athletes being no doctor who dopes them would ever admit to ever doing such.

Hence, with the lack of actual legal study being done on doping athletes and their doctors we have no theory. And thusly we are ****.
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17 Apr 2018 04:13

I like that my friend brought his non angry friend Chewbacca into the discussion, or ar least his defense of 20 conditions that must be met before the data can be examined.

A friendly approach - kind of like throwing a bunch of of storm troopers at luke skywalker, knowing full well that luke must win.

Only to find himself in the garbage incinerator with Chewebacca, who just **** himself.
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17 Apr 2018 08:42

Mod hat on:

Lets stop with the personal slant to posts please.
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