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Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

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04 Jul 2018 12:42

Sky released this:

http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/england/pdf/froome_stage19.pdf

With notes, including this one:

Notes:
Due to the use of Osymetric rings, Chris's power numbers over-report by approximately 6% - so comparisons with other riders need to consider this.
User avatar Alex Simmons/RST
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19 Jul 2018 15:47

So what's the time adjusted for the trackstanding towards the end?
User avatar SeriousSam
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Re:

19 Jul 2018 18:34

SeriousSam wrote:So what's the time adjusted for the trackstanding towards the end?


41'15" is the time I read in a tweet posted on the Top 100 site.

http://www.climbing-records.com/2013/07/all-time-top-100-fastest-rides-on.html
Cookster15
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Re:

19 Jul 2018 18:42

SeriousSam wrote:So what's the time adjusted for the trackstanding towards the end?


41:15 total. Quintana finished 47 seconds back after being 1:00 down with 3km to go. I think if they rode hard that gap would’ve gone out to 1:10 or before the climb flattened out. I think Quintana probably would’ve lost 1:15 if everyone went full gas. So many 30 seconds lost? I think the times are comparable to 2011.
Durden93
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Re: Re:

19 Jul 2018 18:46

Durden93 wrote:
SeriousSam wrote:So what's the time adjusted for the trackstanding towards the end?


41:15 total. Quintana finished 47 seconds back after being 1:00 down with 3km to go. I think if they rode hard that gap would’ve gone out to 1:10 or before the climb flattened out. I think Quintana probably would’ve lost 1:15 if everyone went full gas. So many 30 seconds lost? I think the times are comparable to 2011.


2011 times were about 42+minutes for the GC group (Evans, Schlecks etc). Fastest was about 41:30.
Cookster15
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Yesterday 06:13

I did my usual TDF ADH post examining the average ascent rate for the 5 fastest:
https://wattmatters.blog/home/2018/7/20/alpe-dhuez-tdf-fastest-ascent-times-1982-2018

This year was 12th fastest out of the last 14 visits to the Alpe by the TDF.

Image
User avatar Alex Simmons/RST
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Yesterday 06:26

41:15 is ~ 5.7 W/kg
User avatar Alex Simmons/RST
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Re: Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

Yesterday 10:36

Interesting data. By comparison what were some of the numbers like back in the Armstrong era pre-ABP? How about in Big Mig's heyday?

Is this a good indication that things are clean(er) now? Has cycling finally turned the corner?
Nomad
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Re: Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

Yesterday 16:09

I got close to what Alex has just using the rough VAM formula.

About the time lost doing to slowing down, jockeying for position: I agree with the other poster who suggests 30" max. I went back and looked at the "as it happened report. Beginning with 10 km to go, these are the times that various km were raced (sometimes determined from a longer or shorter specified distance):

3:50
4:04
3:24
2:58
4:54
3:14
2:24
3:06
3:10
3:10
1:58

There are two outlier values. The 1:58 for the final km is presumably because the riders were sprinting at that time. The 4:54 time, going from 5 to 4 km left, corresponded to the steepest part of the stage. All the other values are fairly consistent, and don’t suggest any significant slowing down. In particular, over the last four km, the slowest time for a km was a little over three minutes, and the time from 4 km to 1 km was 8:44. Of course, there could be 20-30 seconds hidden in there somewhere, but not a lot more.

Regarding comparisons to the past. Even assuming 30" from slowing down, and a time of 40:45, this is much slower than the heyday of the 90s and early oughts. But not that many times since 2006 have been faster. They include two by Quintana, who was well off his 2013 and 2015 times yesterday, two by Valverde, also a little slower than before, and two by Froome, who was close to his 2013 and 2015 times, about the same if it was effectively 40:45. The view of many that high level blood doping has been curtailed seems supported, and the W/kg estimate is certainly plausible given known values of parameters like V02max and efficiency. That said, I don't think times like these are evidence that no one is evading the passport by raising his HT a few points. These times would be have been very unusual prior to the 90s (there may have been a few similar times in the late 80s, can't remember now), though how much that is due to different tactics, and better equipment, training and roads, who knows.
Merckx index
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Re: Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

Yesterday 20:25

Merckx index wrote:I got close to what Alex has just using the rough VAM formula.

I didn't even bother putting the time/speed into my version of the Martin et al model, I just used an old chart of mine showing W/kg vs climb time:

Image

From this blog post of mine from 2010:
https://wattmatters.blog/home/2010/07/ascent-rates-and-power-to-body-mass.html

Merckx index wrote:The 1:58 for the final km is presumably because the riders were sprinting at that time.

The final km is pretty flat, even a section of negative gradient.
https://veloviewer.com/segment/4286076/Alpe+d'Huez+-+Tour+de+France
User avatar Alex Simmons/RST
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