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Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

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Re:

16 May 2017 17:51

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Well Dumoulin's velon data was this:
Image

Note: this was just the attack bit (from 5km to 3km approx)

This was Quintana
Image

In pure power output Dumoulin is looking good for the TT.


A good prediction supported by data. Well done. Interesting that according to those tables Dumoulin was 6 secs faster than Quintana over the last 5km of Blockhaus.
Cookster15
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16 May 2017 18:44

I doubt they completed the last 5km in about 7 minutes.
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Re:

16 May 2017 20:03

SeriousSam wrote:I doubt they completed the last 5km in about 7 minutes.


Obviously the distance isn't right - 5km in less than 7mins on that climb is physically impossible. But the indicator of TT results was spot on and is there any accurate verification of the times over the last 5k of Blockhaus as that would be a useful indicator in predicting TD's chances of holding on to Milan or not.
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Re:

17 May 2017 08:54

SeriousSam wrote:I doubt they completed the last 5km in about 7 minutes.


See:

Dekker_Tifosi wrote:Note: this was just the attack bit (from 5km to 3km approx)
el_angliru
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20 May 2017 15:18

Verbier or thereabouts?
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20 May 2017 15:19

6.7 w/kg apparently. It was only 20 minutes but still.

Only 30 seconds slower than the pirate.
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20 May 2017 15:31

Minimal gaps to the other though. Entire field was quick today. Short __/ stage after an active recovery sprint stage with Movistar setting a sharp tempo from the bottom of the climb.
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Re:

20 May 2017 15:32

Brullnux wrote:6.7 w/kg apparently. It was only 20 minutes but still.

Only 30 seconds slower than the pirate.

Without the mechanical, I'm pretty sure. I had the '99 footage and todays' stage running parrallel.
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Re:

20 May 2017 15:33

SeriousSam wrote:Minimal gaps to the other though. Entire field was quick today. Short __/ stage after an active recovery sprint stage with Movistar setting a sharp tempo from the bottom of the climb.

Big gaps considering the climb though.
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Re:

20 May 2017 17:18

SeriousSam wrote:Minimal gaps to the other though. Entire field was quick today. Short __/ stage after an active recovery sprint stage with Movistar setting a sharp tempo from the bottom of the climb.

Yes, context is king
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20 May 2017 18:03

Context includes many aspects. One of them: only pantani has climbed oropa faster than dumoulin.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/865976795555921921
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Re: Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

20 May 2017 18:44

1. 1999: 17:04 Marco Pantani 23.55 km/h
2. 2017: 17:37 Tom Dumoulin 22.82 km/h
3. 2017: 17:40 Ilnur Zakarin 22.75 km/h
4. 2017: 17:46 Mikel Landa 22.63 km/h
5. 1999: 17:50 Laurent Jalabert 22.54 km/h
6. 2017: 17:51 Nairo Quintana 22.52 km/h
7. 1999: 18:04 Gilberto Simoni 22.25 km/h
8. 1999: 18:07 Ivan Gotti 22.19 km/h
9. 1999: 18:07 Daniel Clavero 22.19 km/h
10. 1993: 18:12 Piotr Ugrumov 22.09 km/h
11. 2007: 18:12 Leonardo Piepoli 22.09 km/h
12. 2017: 18:12 Thibaut Pinot 22.09 km/h
13. 1999: 18:13 Nicola Miceli 22.07 km/h
14. 1993: 18:16 Stephen Roche 22.01 km/h
15. 1999: 18:18 Paolo Savoldelli 21.97 km/h
16. 2017: 18:18 Adam Yates 21.97 km/h
17. 2017: 18:20 Vincenzo Nibali 21.93 km/h
18. 2017: 18:20 Franco Pellizotti 21.93 km/h
19. 1993: 18:21 Moreno Argentin 21.91 km/h
20. 1999: 18:23 Andrei Zintchenko 21.87 km/h
21. 2017: 18:23 Steven Kruijswijk 21.87 km/h
22. 2017: 18:23 Tanel Kangert 21.87 km/h
23. 1999: 18:25 Daniele De Paoli 21.83 km/h
24. 1999: 18:26 Davide Rebellin 21.81 km/h
25. 1999: 18:26 Oscar Camenzind 21.81 km/h
26. 1999: 18:26 Massimo Codol 21.81 km/h
27. 2017: 18:27 Domenico Pozzovivo 21.79 km/h
28. 2014: 18:30 Nairo Quintana 21.73 km/h
29. 2007: 18:33 Marzio Bruseghin 21.67 km/h
30. 2014: 18:34 Fabio Aru 21.65 km/h
31. 2014: 18:34 Domenico Pozzovivo 21.65 km/h
32. 1999: 18:37 José Manuel Uria 21.59 km/h
33. 1999: 18:37 Roberto Heras 21.59 km/h
34. 2017: 18:37 Jan Hirt 21.59 km/h
35. 2014: 18:38 Wilco Kelderman 21.57 km/h
36. 2014: 18:38 Rafal Majka 21.57 km/h
37. 1993: 18:42 Claudio Chiappucci 21.50 km/h
38. 1993: 18:45 Pavel Tonkov 21.44 km/h
39. 1993: 18:48 Miguel Indurain 21.38 km/h
40. 2017: 18:49 Sebastien Reichenbach 21.36 km/h
41. 2007: 18:50 Danilo Di Luca 21.35 km/h
42. 2014: 18:50 Wouter Poels 21.35 km/h
43. 2014: 18:50 Cadel Evans 21.35 km/h
44. 2017: 18:51 Patrick Konrad 21.33 km/h
45. 2017: 18:51 Igor Anton 21.33 km/h
46. 2014: 18:55 Rigoberto Uran
47. 2017: 18:56 Rui Costa 21.23 km/h
48. 2017: 18:59 Jan Polanc 21.18 km/h
49. 2017: 18:59 Laurens De Plus 21.18 km/h
50. 2017: 18:59 Bob Jungels 21.18 km/h
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20 May 2017 18:52

The ridiculousness of Dumoulin's time is probably only equaled in that list by the presence of Moreno Argentin!
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20 May 2017 20:01

It looks like there's also evolution out of the sky :D
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20 May 2017 22:32

The Oropa Report...
Did we find any aliens?
:D
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Re: Re:

21 May 2017 07:49

rick james wrote:
SeriousSam wrote:Minimal gaps to the other though. Entire field was quick today. Short __/ stage after an active recovery sprint stage with Movistar setting a sharp tempo from the bottom of the climb.

Yes, context is king

1999 had everyone going all out to limit time losses to Pantani, no tactics required.

Here's Stage 14 2014:

Image

2007 was a TT
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Re: Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

22 May 2017 16:36

Bavarianrider wrote:1. 1999: 17:04 Marco Pantani 23.55 km/h
2. 2017: 17:37 Tom Dumoulin 22.82 km/h
3. 2017: 17:40 Ilnur Zakarin 22.75 km/h
4. 2017: 17:46 Mikel Landa 22.63 km/h
5. 1999: 17:50 Laurent Jalabert 22.54 km/h
6. 2017: 17:51 Nairo Quintana 22.52 km/h
7. 1999: 18:04 Gilberto Simoni 22.25 km/h
8. 1999: 18:07 Ivan Gotti 22.19 km/h
9. 1999: 18:07 Daniel Clavero 22.19 km/h
10. 1993: 18:12 Piotr Ugrumov 22.09 km/h
11. 2007: 18:12 Leonardo Piepoli 22.09 km/h
12. 2017: 18:12 Thibaut Pinot 22.09 km/h
13. 1999: 18:13 Nicola Miceli 22.07 km/h
14. 1993: 18:16 Stephen Roche 22.01 km/h
15. 1999: 18:18 Paolo Savoldelli 21.97 km/h
16. 2017: 18:18 Adam Yates 21.97 km/h
17. 2017: 18:20 Vincenzo Nibali 21.93 km/h
18. 2017: 18:20 Franco Pellizotti 21.93 km/h
19. 1993: 18:21 Moreno Argentin 21.91 km/h
20. 1999: 18:23 Andrei Zintchenko 21.87 km/h
21. 2017: 18:23 Steven Kruijswijk 21.87 km/h
22. 2017: 18:23 Tanel Kangert 21.87 km/h
23. 1999: 18:25 Daniele De Paoli 21.83 km/h
24. 1999: 18:26 Davide Rebellin 21.81 km/h
25. 1999: 18:26 Oscar Camenzind 21.81 km/h
26. 1999: 18:26 Massimo Codol 21.81 km/h
27. 2017: 18:27 Domenico Pozzovivo 21.79 km/h
28. 2014: 18:30 Nairo Quintana 21.73 km/h
29. 2007: 18:33 Marzio Bruseghin 21.67 km/h
30. 2014: 18:34 Fabio Aru 21.65 km/h
31. 2014: 18:34 Domenico Pozzovivo 21.65 km/h
32. 1999: 18:37 José Manuel Uria 21.59 km/h
33. 1999: 18:37 Roberto Heras 21.59 km/h
34. 2017: 18:37 Jan Hirt 21.59 km/h
35. 2014: 18:38 Wilco Kelderman 21.57 km/h
36. 2014: 18:38 Rafal Majka 21.57 km/h
37. 1993: 18:42 Claudio Chiappucci 21.50 km/h
38. 1993: 18:45 Pavel Tonkov 21.44 km/h
39. 1993: 18:48 Miguel Indurain 21.38 km/h
40. 2017: 18:49 Sebastien Reichenbach 21.36 km/h
41. 2007: 18:50 Danilo Di Luca 21.35 km/h
42. 2014: 18:50 Wouter Poels 21.35 km/h
43. 2014: 18:50 Cadel Evans 21.35 km/h
44. 2017: 18:51 Patrick Konrad 21.33 km/h
45. 2017: 18:51 Igor Anton 21.33 km/h
46. 2014: 18:55 Rigoberto Uran
47. 2017: 18:56 Rui Costa 21.23 km/h
48. 2017: 18:59 Jan Polanc 21.18 km/h
49. 2017: 18:59 Laurens De Plus 21.18 km/h
50. 2017: 18:59 Bob Jungels 21.18 km/h


So, the gap is 46 seconds from Pantani to Jalabert (1st to 2nd) and 3 from Dumoulin to Zakarin. Gap from Pantani to Gotti/Clavero (5th) is 1:03 and 35 seconds from Dumoulin to Pinot. If the argument is that Tom's gaps are suspicious, then I don't buy it. Obviously the watts are suspicious though.
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22 May 2017 19:56

I can't remember the last time I watched the queen stage of the Giro in full so here's a question: how much do you expect the times on the final climb to be influenced by the previous climbs? 5% slower? 10%? What is usually the pacing strategy here (ie full gas on penultimate climb and survive final climb vs equal effort on both?) Thanks.
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Re:

23 May 2017 15:59

Durden93 wrote:I can't remember the last time I watched the queen stage of the Giro in full so here's a question: how much do you expect the times on the final climb to be influenced by the previous climbs? 5% slower? 10%? What is usually the pacing strategy here (ie full gas on penultimate climb and survive final climb vs equal effort on both?) Thanks.

I think it depends a lot on how hard they're ridden.

In the 2015 Vuelta the Andorra had 5,6W/kg or thereabouts by Aru, whereas the Asturias stage was still around 6,0 and higher than a few uniclimbs
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25 May 2017 22:24

Must have been some very underwhelming w/kg on Stelvio and Pontives after Blockhaus and Oropa.
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