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09 Nov 2018 12:31

Huge win for the Steelers.
movingtarget
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09 Nov 2018 13:04

Yeah. Did not see that blowout coming.
User avatar on3m@n@rmy
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09 Nov 2018 13:45

Very impressive, especially on offense. Steelers have some real tests coming up the rest of the season, which should be very entertaining for the fans. Hosting the Chargers on 12/2, and Joey Bosa will be back by then. Hosting the Patriots on 12/16. At the Saints on 12/23.

As to Bell, and running backs in general, Foxxy used to say they were interchangeable, plug and play. I don't know that I fully agree with that, but I will never forget Terrell Davis honesty after his MVP Super Bowl performance, saying his job was easy because the OL did all the work. Or as Stan Brock told me, sure you need a franchise QB, playmakers on both sides of the ball, but down to down, play after play, games are won and lost on the line, in the trenches. A half second more protection is an eternity to a QB. A hole just one foot wider can be a chasm to a RB, etc.

So is Bell worth a lot more money? No, but as jmdirt said, there will be a lot going on for him, one way or the other.
User avatar Alpe d'Huez
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Re:

09 Nov 2018 23:43

Alpe d'Huez wrote:Very impressive, especially on offense. Steelers have some real tests coming up the rest of the season, which should be very entertaining for the fans. Hosting the Chargers on 12/2, and Joey Bosa will be back by then. Hosting the Patriots on 12/16. At the Saints on 12/23.

As to Bell, and running backs in general, Foxxy used to say they were interchangeable, plug and play. I don't know that I fully agree with that, but I will never forget Terrell Davis honesty after his MVP Super Bowl performance, saying his job was easy because the OL did all the work. Or as Stan Brock told me, sure you need a franchise QB, playmakers on both sides of the ball, but down to down, play after play, games are won and lost on the line, in the trenches. A half second more protection is an eternity to a QB. A hole just one foot wider can be a chasm to a RB, etc.

So is Bell worth a lot more money? No, but as jmdirt said, there will be a lot going on for him, one way or the other.



With running backs it depends on the team if they are "plug and play" or not. Obviously there are the greats like Adrian Peterson. However, teams like the Steelers for decades have proven running backs there are interchangeable as they are a running team and their offense is set up to make a running back look good.
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Re: National Football League

10 Nov 2018 15:03

on3m@n@rmy wrote:Speaking of signings, Dez Bryant (dumped by the Cowboys last April) signed with the Saints today. I think the Saints coaching & QB situation and fact Dez will not have to be the go-to guy there make this a good signing.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2770392-dez-bryant-saints-reportedly-agree-to-1-year-contract-after-cowboys-release
They thought it would be a good signing. I'm sure everyone has heard Dez tore his Achilles, and on the final play of yesterday's practice nonetheless. Wow...I feel for the guy as he won't be able to catch at least one pass from Brees. May be a tough one to come back from as Achilles ruptures are bad for WRs/RBs/DBs where rapid acceleration & change of direction are vital.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25227627/new-orleans-saints-fear-dez-bryant-tore-achilles-tendon-practice
Nomad
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10 Nov 2018 15:40

Predictions a day early.

NO@CIN - This has the feel of a "trap" game for the Saints, coming off a big win against the Rams, and now on the road. But AJ Green and Vontez Burfect are both out for Bengals, but they can still score and I expect them to. Game could be dramatic, and close.
ATL@CLE - Atlanta is playing better, despite being decimated by injuries, Browns still growing, struggling. Home helps, but the Browns are developing, while the Falcons fighting for a playoff spot.
DET@CHI - Home team, plus Mack and Robinson look to be back near full strength. Browns just a better team and defense makes the difference here.
ARI@KC - Chiefs keep on winning, against the hapless Cardinals. Need I say more?
NE@TEN - This could be a letdown with Gronk likely out, on the road, but the Pats are rolling. Belicheck rarely loses to his former disciples.
WAS@TB - Interesting matchup. Can TB move the ball on the tough Wash defense, if so, I don't see the Skins keeping up. Skins are just banged up, with a very shallow receiving corps right now. But a heavy dose of Peterson and RBs could keep them in it, or win it even.
BUF@NYJ - Both teams struggling, but with Peterman at QB, the Bills can't win. Matt Barkley now the backup. Allen should return next week, giving Buffalo a little hope.
JAX@IND - Indy has won 2 in a row, Jags lost 4 in a row. Indy's secondary is very week. Good thing they are facing Blake Bortles. Fournette back this week maybe at full strength, so expect a tough game.
LAC@OAK - Raiders are a pathetic embarrassment. This game could come close to the 53-0 blowlout loss to the Rams in Carr's rookie year. The Raiders won't win again this year.
SEA@LAR Seattle playing better, Rams defense shaky, but home and a loss (believe it or not) helps them get grounded. Game could be close, Seahawk defense playing very well.
MIA@GB - Osweiller playing better than he has since his Denver days, but Packers deeper team, at home.
DAL@PHI - Eagles are getting better, at home, Cowboys worse. Dallas seems to be slipping to mediocrity. Sproles likely to return for Eagles in limited action.

NYG@SF A week after the dumpster fire that is the Raiders made rookie 3rd stringer Nick Mullen look like Joe Montana, he won't have the same luxury against a decent defense. But this game is at home, and the Giants offense poor. But a steady diet of Barkley and maybe turnovers will make this close, and the Giants could steal one.
User avatar Alpe d'Huez
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10 Nov 2018 16:42

A solid RB can make a season for a team. Obviously the other pieces must be in place too, but a RB who can take the pressure off of the QB and receivers is crucial. Some games that may mean rushing for 100 yards, others maybe getting that extra yard or two here or there, or a key reception. IE: this year teams that aren't as good with just any RB plugged in: Rams w/TG, Saints w/AK, KC w/KH, maybe even LAC with MG, WASH w/AP.

A great example might be PIT because they might be undefeated if Bell was on the team this year. Conner plugs in OK, but he misses several little things that LB could do.

The argument in recent years is that the Pats have plugged RBs in and out, but that's the exception, not the norm, plus I would argue that the guys they have plugged in are upper crust specialists and the Pats use a few of them instead of one. IE: Blount couldn't have been their only back, but on third and one or two and/or from the one, he is a monster (crazy that he helped PHI beat the Pats in the SB). Plus, how many teams have Tom (and his plug and play receivers)! :)

Q: if you have all of the pieces in place would you rather have Gurley or just some back plugged in?

As a SEA fan I would have loved to plugged Barkley in!

Old news, but if you plug just any RB into DAL, even with that OL, he doesn't win the rushing title like Elliott did, nor does the team have a season like that with a hot, but not great backup QB starting.
jmdirt
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10 Nov 2018 21:23

The other upside the Steelers have is their passing offense, which helps in the run game.
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11 Nov 2018 21:03

So we have Cleveland winning and New England loosing in the same day. Did not expect that when I woke up today.
User avatar Koronin
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11 Nov 2018 21:49

You must work night shift, or you're not really in NC if you saw the games when you woke up. Maybe you're actually in Tahiti? ;)

What was impressive wasn't just the wins by Cleveland and Tennessee, but how they did it, and the scores. There was no doubt each won the game. Did anyone think the Browns would play that well for Gregg Williams? His level of hard nose discipline, at least in the past, may carry over well to such a young team, though he's appeared pretty sage in press conferences and interviews of late.

Saints look like an unstoppable juggernaut right now. The way they just blew by Cincy was impressive. It was like they could have scored 70+ points if they pushed it.

Astonishing win for Buffalo. It seems as long as they have anyone except Nate Peterman at QB, they have the ability to move the ball on offense!

Nice win for Washington, really gritting it out. That last TD throw by Alex Smith was something.

Nice win for the Colts too.
User avatar Alpe d'Huez
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11 Nov 2018 23:43

Good to see the Browns get another win. Not completely surprised by the Bengals result. Jaguars woes continue.
movingtarget
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Re:

12 Nov 2018 00:41

Alpe d'Huez wrote:You must work night shift, or you're not really in NC if you saw the games when you woke up. Maybe you're actually in Tahiti? ;)

What was impressive wasn't just the wins by Cleveland and Tennessee, but how they did it, and the scores. There was no doubt each won the game. Did anyone think the Browns would play that well for Gregg Williams? His level of hard nose discipline, at least in the past, may carry over well to such a young team, though he's appeared pretty sage in press conferences and interviews of late.

Saints look like an unstoppable juggernaut right now. The way they just blew by Cincy was impressive. It was like they could have scored 70+ points if they pushed it.

Astonishing win for Buffalo. It seems as long as they have anyone except Nate Peterman at QB, they have the ability to move the ball on offense!

Nice win for Washington, really gritting it out. That last TD throw by Alex Smith was something.

Nice win for the Colts too.



You misunderstood. I was watching RedZone. Just when I got up this morning before the games started I did not expect that Cleveland would win and New England would lose.
User avatar Koronin
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Re: National Football League

Yesterday 02:46

Want to know how much offense in the NFL has changed? The league average completion % this season is 65.1. The highest previous was 63.0 in 2015 and 2016. In 2000, it was 58.2%; in 1990, it was 56.0%. The league average QB rating is 94.6, which would easily be a record. In 2000, it was 78.1.

To put this in perspective, compare the numbers of the best QBs of the past with current ones. Joe Montana’s career QB rating was 92.3, and he had just three seasons > 100. There are currently thirteen QBs with a rating > 100; Montana’s career mark would put him firmly in the bottom half of the league. Montana’s career completion % was 63.2%, and he had one season > 70%, which at the time I believe was a record. There are currently five QBs with a completion % higher than that. Montana’s career mark would put him in the bottom fourth of the league.

Marino? Career 86.4 rating, bottom fourth of the current league, one year > 100. Career 59.4% completion percentage. Only two current qualified QBs have a completion % lower than that.

Elway? His career 79.9 rating is worse than all but three current QBs. His completion % of 56.9 is lower than all but two current QBs.

Steve Young had six seasons with a QB rating > 100, but his career was 96.8. He topped 70% completion percentage once.

Even more recent QBs didn’t put up such pinball numbers. Peyton Manning had six seasons with a rating > 100, but 96.5 for his career. He never touched 70% completion percentage.

Or consider older QBs who are still active. Drew Brees had seven seasons of > 100 coming into this year, but his current rating of 123.8, which would be a record, is far better than anything he’s done before—and he’s 39 years old! He’s had four seasons of > 70% before, but his current rate of 77% is far better than anything he or anyone else has ever done for a full season. It’s almost incomprehensible.

Or look at Brady. His current QB rating of 94.7 is not much lower than his career rating of 97.6, and his current completion % of 65.2 is slightly better than his career 64.0. But neither of those numbers puts him in the top 10 of current QBs. My interpretation of this is that he’s begun his decline, but it’s not so obvious because the numbers he’s putting up are close to his career numbers; it ‘s just that those numbers are only about average in the current environment.

I have used the older QB rating system, so that today’s QBs can be compared with those of the past. But a newer rating system, which came into effect in 2006, reveals the same story. Going into this season, Brees had topped 80 twice under this alternative rating system, with a season best of 83.4. He’s currently at 88.1. Brady topped 80 once, at 88.5, but he’s currently at 62.9.

Bottom line: under the new rules, average QBs are as efficient passers as the best ones were as recently as 10-20 years ago.
Merckx index
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Re: National Football League

Yesterday 17:52

Merckx index wrote:Want to know how much offense in the NFL has changed? The league average completion % this season is 65.1. The highest previous was 63.0 in 2015 and 2016. In 2000, it was 58.2%; in 1990, it was 56.0%. The league average QB rating is 94.6, which would easily be a record. In 2000, it was 78.1.

Bottom line: under the new rules, average QBs are as efficient passers as the best ones were as recently as 10-20 years ago.

Nice post. Since the 1970's, team scoring has ony risen from a range of 17 to 20 points/game to a 2018 league average of about 24.1, which doesn't seem like much of an increase.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/scoring.htm
But the 2018 average points/game includes all teams. I wonder what it would be if only the top 10 scoring teams were included in the average.

As to QB efficiency, it feels like there are more teams the past year or so with viable QBs. Rule changes for player safety (hence fewer injuries), rule changes that make it more difficult for defenses, effective introduction of RPO into offenses (making for quicker transition of new QBs from the college game to NFL), and some keen offensively-mindes coaches are some factors that probably are contributing to changes in the statistics.

So far, I'm ok with these trends as long as it does not become like the NBA in past years where one only has to view the last 5 minutes of a game. I think I'd lose interest if game wins & losses came down to "the last team to have the ball wins".
User avatar on3m@n@rmy
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Re: National Football League

Yesterday 20:33

Merckx index wrote:Want to know how much offense in the NFL has changed? The league average completion % this season is 65.1. The highest previous was 63.0 in 2015 and 2016. In 2000, it was 58.2%; in 1990, it was 56.0%. The league average QB rating is 94.6, which would easily be a record. In 2000, it was 78.1.

To put this in perspective, compare the numbers of the best QBs of the past with current ones. Joe Montana’s career QB rating was 92.3, and he had just three seasons > 100. There are currently thirteen QBs with a rating > 100; Montana’s career mark would put him firmly in the bottom half of the league. Montana’s career completion % was 63.2%, and he had one season > 70%, which at the time I believe was a record. There are currently five QBs with a completion % higher than that. Montana’s career mark would put him in the bottom fourth of the league.

Marino? Career 86.4 rating, bottom fourth of the current league, one year > 100. Career 59.4% completion percentage. Only two current qualified QBs have a completion % lower than that.

Elway? His career 79.9 rating is worse than all but three current QBs. His completion % of 56.9 is lower than all but two current QBs.

Steve Young had six seasons with a QB rating > 100, but his career was 96.8. He topped 70% completion percentage once.

Even more recent QBs didn’t put up such pinball numbers. Peyton Manning had six seasons with a rating > 100, but 96.5 for his career. He never touched 70% completion percentage.

Or consider older QBs who are still active. Drew Brees had seven seasons of > 100 coming into this year, but his current rating of 123.8, which would be a record, is far better than anything he’s done before—and he’s 39 years old! He’s had four seasons of > 70% before, but his current rate of 77% is far better than anything he or anyone else has ever done for a full season. It’s almost incomprehensible.

Or look at Brady. His current QB rating of 94.7 is not much lower than his career rating of 97.6, and his current completion % of 65.2 is slightly better than his career 64.0. But neither of those numbers puts him in the top 10 of current QBs. My interpretation of this is that he’s begun his decline, but it’s not so obvious because the numbers he’s putting up are close to his career numbers; it ‘s just that those numbers are only about average in the current environment.

I have used the older QB rating system, so that today’s QBs can be compared with those of the past. But a newer rating system, which came into effect in 2006, reveals the same story. Going into this season, Brees had topped 80 twice under this alternative rating system, with a season best of 83.4. He’s currently at 88.1. Brady topped 80 once, at 88.5, but he’s currently at 62.9.

Bottom line: under the new rules, average QBs are as efficient passers as the best ones were as recently as 10-20 years ago.



Interesting. To add to this, Marino has apparently said that if he played in today's pass happy league he could have easily topped 7,000 maybe 8,000 passing yards a season multiple times. That's how different today's game is from when Marino and Elway played. Even more interesting is Marino still owns some of the passing records.
User avatar Koronin
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Today 04:33

If the NFL is serious about the safety of the playing surfaces, Lambeau (among others) is in trouble...
jmdirt
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