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20 Jun 2015 12:12

Exactly what the Bulldogs needed: A "buildup-opponent". Back in T-8 contention... And next week the re-match against the Saints. Now WB could go 2 in a row. The Q will be: Can they hold as big a lead as today against them too? Or will they give away another monstrous comeback? ;)
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21 Jun 2015 16:52

I was wondering why AFL players are paid relatively low compared to other leagues that "rule" a country (like NFL in the USA).
Is it because the market is too small ("only" 24 millions live in Australia)?
Is it because the talent pool is smaller (240.000 kids playing footy at age 5-14 to become one of the aprox. 700 native AFL players in the future) than let´s say soccer (500.000 in Germany, aged 15-18, trying to become one of the aprox 300 natives in the top league)?
Is it because the skill set needed is too easy (like some soccer guys say)?*

No, it´s none of the above. Actually your players are robbed:

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/nick-riewoldt-keen-for-players-to-get-fair-share-of-afl-earnings-20140305-347qb.html

They get only 25% of the revenue. :eek: In the NFL it´s about 50%. The crazy european soccer leagues pay up to 80% of their revenues to players, thus needing help from all kinds of shady oligarchs & middle east oil sheiks to finance their greed (clubs not following this path have deep deep debts) > for further info, check my latest link.
So AFL players could easily double their income (aprox 500.000 instead of 250.000 on yearly average) if having a strong union fighting for their 50%. My opinion: They shall go on strike in 2016, when the current CBA (don´t know the name Australia uses, may Leftover can help out here) runs out.
I say something I never would in the NFL thread: I fully side with the players. Of what I saw so far is, they have to endure major stress to their bodies, and certainly will suffer like NFL players once the playing days are over. And they display athletisism in a violent environment, combined with speed, endurance, and fine motor skill (like kicking with amazing accuracy "bananas" from unreal angles and/or for distance, jumping on each others backs and still come up with the ball, run full gas while tipping a un-round, thus uncontrolable, ball on the ground several times) like I saw in no other team sport. All-at-once.That required skill-sets shall be paid fairly.

Coming up: 2nd Half predictions based solely on Inside50s-Stats. I just wanna see if that "killer-stat" is just descriptive for success (circa 70 % of games are won by teams that had more Inside50s**), or if it´s a predictive (for future success) stat like Y/PP in the NFL. (Hint @ Leftover: Better hope Inside50s have "future value", then you´ll be positively surprised)

Btw, my pre-season rookie-picks (based almost completely on regression) do pretty well against the insider bookie lines. :)

(* Ofc not, as you just saw in my post)

(** My rookie guess is: Great Ruckmen winning hit-outs > lead to more clearences > lead to fast-transition towards the opposing 50. Is that simple description correct (I know there is more to it, like having good mid-fielders disposing balls with great accuracy; but I mean in most basic terms)? And thus shall Ruckmen be paid among the best? Still learning...) :)
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Re:

22 Jun 2015 00:41

FoxxyBrown1111 wrote:Exactly what the Bulldogs needed: A "buildup-opponent". Back in T-8 contention... And next week the re-match against the Saints. Now WB could go 2 in a row. The Q will be: Can they hold as big a lead as today against them too? Or will they give away another monstrous comeback? ;)


look out here we come! building our way to a finals appearance.

Looked great on Saturday night, hoping they put in another good effort against the saints, I lost a coffee & a muffin in a bet last game with a saints supporting riding buddy in the last game, can't afford to be doing that again.
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22 Jun 2015 01:12

WB has a rather "soft" schedule left... Add in that if Ins50s are any indication, WB finishes 5th, at least 6th (given luck and bad luck evens out until the end of the season; but you never know how a un-round ball will bounce in any given game, as we just saw with the Melbourne upset vs Geelong). The rest tomorrow... What about my other posts (see also previous page)? Should players earn more, are Ruckmen as important as I think from my half season observations? I still like to learn more... Others are welcome too with their insights. :)
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22 Jun 2015 01:22

Foxxxy, I don't think the players would ever go on strike, it would never happen in Aus, there would be riots in the streets.
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22 Jun 2015 01:42

Too bad. They need a strong union leader. Most of times things are hyped up to be worse than they would actually be. Really let them strike. Or at least they should threat one. Sometimes that works wonders alone. Once the players get 40-50%, AFL also gets the best athlets from Rugby (if they can kick, of which I doubt. But at least you wouldn´t lose any players trying their luck as NFL punters)
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22 Jun 2015 17:17

Final Standings projections based on Ins50-Stats (and remaining Schedule/Fixtures):
1-Freo 18-4
2-WCE 17-5
3-Haw 17-5
4-Syd 16-6
5-Coll 14-8
6-WB 13-9
7-GWS 12-10
8-Ade 11-11
---------------------
9-Rich 11-11
10-NM 10-12
11-Gee 10-12
12-Ess 10-12
13-PA 9-13
14-SK 8-14
15-Car 6-16
16-Melb 6-16
17-Bri 6-16
18-GC 4-18
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Re:

23 Jun 2015 02:46

FoxxyBrown1111 wrote:WB has a rather "soft" schedule left... Add in that if Ins50s are any indication, WB finishes 5th, at least 6th


a good position to cause a ruckus in the finals! I like it foxxxy, I like it.

FoxxyBrown1111 wrote:but you never know how a un-round ball will bounce in any given game


so true, the recent drawn grand final is a perfect example, only seconds to go, steven milne, 15m out from goal, the ball bounces away from him and through for a point, how different things would be if the ball had spun a little further around and it had bounced towards him, it's truly one of the greatest things about the game, learning to read the bounce is an underrated skill that people don't even talk about, it's just taken as a given.

FoxxyBrown1111 wrote:What about my other posts (see also previous page)? Should players earn more, are Ruckmen as important as I think from my half season observations?


I believe a good ruckman is very important, they are the first-point-of contact for a team and really are leaders, whether they're captain or not. Every time there is a ball up or a throw in it's a 50/50, and if you have a dominant ruckman then it's 70/30, add in accuracy to that and it really swings things in your teams favour. Their physicality also sets the tone for the team to follow too, so even if they don't win the tap, a ruckman that doesn't let the opposing ruckman get a decisive tap and then fiercely tackles the opposing player who ends up with the ball is also valuable.
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24 Jun 2015 12:14

"truly one of the greatest things about the game, learning to read the bounce is an underrated skill that people don't even talk about, it's just taken as a given"

I didn´t even realized it´s a skill. But now that you say it. Yes it is. Just reminds me now of how unbelievable that goal by Franklin was when he kicked a "banana" on the ground. Or how funny it looks when OL and DL men struggle over a fumbled NFL football. The picking up of AFL footballs from the ground look more controlled for that matter.

And now the "easy" part of the schedule/fixtures start for WB: (if Ins50s indeed have "future value", things look very good. So far WB have 52% of Ins50s, the opponents of them had thus 48% so far)
StK-(47% of Ins50s in their games) = WB-Win
Car-(46%) = Win
GC-(43%) = Win
Gee-(48%) = Win
Col-(54%) = Loss
Ess-(48%) = Win
PA-(48%) = Win
Mel-(43%) = Win
WCE-(57%) = Loss
NM-(48%) = Win
Bri-(44%) = Win
= 9-2 for the 2nd half. Put in a little regression, so I came up with a 7-4 record for the 2nd half, given upsets and being upset even out = 13-9 final record.
Ofc only if they could resist to give away 50-point leads and/or going into the final Qtr with a circa 20-point lead, and not holding onto it. I further assume injuries will even out overall to all teams... Very likely.

So a bright future ahead. :)

Edit:

First real test for my Ins50s work I have done this week... As you know from the NFL thread I seldom bet. Mostly only playoffs when I see inconsistencies in the market due wrong assumptions by the bettors as a whole (Sharks, who seldom fail & "Public bettors").
Now my first try to beat the 10% comission in the AFL.
Couldn´t resist: Freo at 1.23 vs Coll 4.25 = 78% Freo Win-Chance. My numbers say Freo 55% ins50 vs Coll 54%, add in regression, and you have a 50/50 game with HFA aprox 62/38 in favour for Freo.
Must also say we really get robbed over here, pay-out is only 3.20 for Coll...
IOW: Strongly rooting against my 2nd team Freo, going for a visitor upset.
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Re:

25 Jun 2015 02:43

FoxxyBrown1111 wrote:Now my first try to beat the 10% comission in the AFL.
Couldn´t resist: Freo at 1.23 vs Coll 4.25 = 78% Freo Win-Chance. My numbers say Freo 55% ins50 vs Coll 54%, add in regression, and you have a 50/50 game with HFA aprox 62/38 in favour for Freo.
Must also say we really get robbed over here, pay-out is only 3.20 for Coll...
IOW: Strongly rooting against my 2nd team Freo, going for a visitor upset.


I'm off to the game tonight foxxxy, keep an eye out for me, i'll be the one yelling at the umpire.

I'm pretty excited, I haven't been for ages and I think it will be a lot closer than the odds suggest, I would put my pennies on freo though, even at 1.25
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Re:

25 Jun 2015 02:44

FoxxyBrown1111 wrote:And now the "easy" part of the schedule/fixtures start for WB: (if Ins50s indeed have "future value", things look very good. So far WB have 52% of Ins50s, the opponents of them had thus 48% so far)
StK-(47% of Ins50s in their games) = WB-Win
Car-(46%) = Win
GC-(43%) = Win
Gee-(48%) = Win
Col-(54%) = Loss
Ess-(48%) = Win
PA-(48%) = Win
Mel-(43%) = Win
WCE-(57%) = Loss
NM-(48%) = Win
Bri-(44%) = Win
= 9-2 for the 2nd half. Put in a little regression, so I came up with a 7-4 record for the 2nd half, given upsets and being upset even out = 13-9 final record.
Ofc only if they could resist to give away 50-point leads and/or going into the final Qtr with a circa 20-point lead, and not holding onto it. I further assume injuries will even out overall to all teams... Very likely.

So a bright future ahead. :)


lookin good for the doggies, excited about their chances, as a true doggies supporter I always live in hope.
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Re: Re:

25 Jun 2015 09:18

leftover pie wrote:
FoxxyBrown1111 wrote:Now my first try to beat the 10% comission in the AFL.
Couldn´t resist: Freo at 1.23 vs Coll 4.25 = 78% Freo Win-Chance. My numbers say Freo 55% ins50 vs Coll 54%, add in regression, and you have a 50/50 game with HFA aprox 62/38 in favour for Freo.
Must also say we really get robbed over here, pay-out is only 3.20 for Coll...
IOW: Strongly rooting against my 2nd team Freo, going for a visitor upset.


I'm off to the game tonight foxxxy, keep an eye out for me, i'll be the one yelling at the umpire.

I'm pretty excited, I haven't been for ages and I think it will be a lot closer than the odds suggest, I would put my pennies on freo though, even at 1.25


Sure Freo is the favo here, but the underdog odds were just too good...
I will look out for you in the stands. Wish I could be to a game in the stadium too, even if that would be GC vs Bri. ;)

"lookin good for the doggies, excited about their chances, as a true doggies supporter I always live in hope"

This year your hope has a good foundation (and all that when the pre-season line was set at only 5 1/2 wins for them)... WB is truly competitive. And in the finals... well, you saw it with the 2007-NYG season, miracles (luck streaks ;) ) happen. If the universe is ready, then WB could be the first team (with the latest finals format) to make the GF from a spot lower than 4th on the ladder.

Edit: Even in Australia the odds for Coll sunk from the 4.25 I mentioned down to 3.50 just before game time... So the line was "wrong". The Sharks are in, and the public bettors read my post and invested in a upset. ;)
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25 Jun 2015 10:43

OK, End-1st Qtr Coll by 2 :) ... my underdog bet is well alive & kicking...

Edit: Oh my, I shall not bet, not even the less I do. My heart is pumping as if riding up-hill. My nails are bitten down already :o ... and we are just at HT. Coll still by 2... :) Fingers crossed. The upset is in the air.

Edit II: Omg... I think I´ve to switch off. Don´t wanna get a heart attack. We are tied at 60 / 8.6 apiece. A true 50/50 game in purest form. Come on Magpies finish the upset off. Go, go, go... Gimme that game.

Edit III: That is bitter. Me rookie to the game, spotted the right one with highly favourable odds, it got down the wire, and then No 9 missed the goal. That was the nail in the coffin. :(
What makes it more bitter: If it was a blow-out, ok, I was wrong, those Ins50s-stats mean nothing... But no it was close as expected by me. Add in last second goals by Freo each just before HT, and before 3rd Otr time... Reduce juuust 1 minute of the game and Collingwood wins by a goal, and even the miss by No 9 wouldn´t change that... I need to cool down now. That takes a while to absorb.

Great game you choose to attend leftover. You made the right choice at the right time. Btw, couldn´t spot you in the stands. The house was full packed. So next time please carry a signpost "To Foxxy Germany" or something like that. ;)
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Re:

25 Jun 2015 23:33

FoxxyBrown1111 wrote:Great game you choose to attend leftover. You made the right choice at the right time. Btw, couldn´t spot you in the stands. The house was full packed. So next time please carry a signpost "To Foxxy Germany" or something like that. ;)


Having not been to a game for quite a while I had forgotten just how fast it is, you don't really get an appreciation for that watching on TV.

Was a tough game, a bit scrappy, but that was bought on by pressure I think, I now remember why I don't like going to freo games, they always make you sweat on it, it's never an easy win.

A behind the scenes look for you foxxxy, this is what happens to the banner after they run through it:

Image
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26 Jun 2015 03:00

Thanks for sharing your inside views. I am jeaulos of you having the possibility to be right in there. The game looks fast, highly skilled even on TV to me. I wonder how it would be in the stadium.
I hope one day I can have the same experience (by visiting Australia). I only can imagine how I would have felt today: Either getting a heart attack, or getting lights out drunk after the game to absorb my loss. I was sooo close. :o

A shame with the banner waste...

Next up: Swans vs Rich... My No 1 team playing. Excited already. :)
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Re:

26 Jun 2015 05:17

FoxxyBrown1111 wrote:Thanks for sharing your inside views. I am jeaulos of you having the possibility to be right in there. The game looks fast, highly skilled even on TV to me. I wonder how it would be in the stadium.
I hope one day I can have the same experience (by visiting Australia). I only can imagine how I would have felt today: Either getting a heart attack, or getting lights out drunk after the game to absorb my loss. I was sooo close. :o

A shame with the banner waste...

Next up: Swans vs Rich... My No 1 team playing. Excited already. :)

It's a fun sport to watch and in some ways it has a lot in common with football (soccer). The flow of the game is similar and when you watch it at the ground you get a better appreciation of the ball movement and flow of play. It's not like Rugby League which is very compact, fast and almost made for TV.

Are you a Sydney or Richmond fan Foxxy?
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26 Jun 2015 05:46

Imagine, just started to follow footy last August when accidently stumbling across the GF-1989 docu while cruising trou youtube... I was fascinated by it instantly (btw, Brereton looks as if he didn´t age, only his hair is way shorter ;) , when I saw him interviewing a player some weeks ago).

After watching a few (past) games on youtube I really became to like Freo (my No 2 team, even though I bet against them this week b/c of the favourable odds*) especially "Whiskey"**, then saw the awesome stuff Goodes & especially Franklin did in my first AFL-pass-games (late finals games of last year). With great help of leftover I learned the rules in a hurry (still learning ofc)... And now Swans are my No 1 team. Truly impressed how they came back against Ess, and really liked everything they did since then (even in the losing efforts to WB & Freo with another amazing comeback try)

"It's a fun sport to watch and in some ways it has a lot in common with football (soccer)"

Funny thing is: I otoh see a lot of similarities to American Football. The toughness, the ball ofc, the gaining of field position, the catches, the collisions, etc...

Either way, really felt in love with that great sport. :)

* But I won´t bet against my No 1 team... otoh; never say never ;)
** Btw, I call Hayden Ballantyne "Whiskey".. The name just smells like. The most football name ever in my opinion, outside of all that amazing "german" OL men in American Football.
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26 Jun 2015 10:58

So, so... Swans on their way to another walk trou blow-out :D

... And the HT talk is Franklin is facing a suspension for his hit on the head of a opponent. (good-bye chance for the Brownlow medal) :o
I see the positive: A time-off will keep him fresh for the playoffs. Less chances to get injured before the finals.
Last edited by FoxxyBrown1111 on 26 Jun 2015 12:32, edited 2 times in total.
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26 Jun 2015 11:09

You know FoxxyBrown that you remind me of a mate that isn't really an AFL fan but took up to watch the sport because another one of his mates loved it and this person just so happened to barrack for the Swans and in only his 2nd year of supporting them I think they won the flag. A marriage made in heaven, eh?
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26 Jun 2015 11:13

Was pure chance to root for the two teams at top of the ladder. Who really thought pre-season that Freo & Swans would be 1-2 (if looking at winning percentage) that far into the season, that both got off to their best seasons ever respectively since decades.
I got into AFL because of the game itself. No one but that great docu got me there. As I said: Pure chance :)
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