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Re:

16 Apr 2018 19:50

movingtarget wrote:Bucks go down to Celtics on OT. Entertaining game. Cavs lose their first game easily against the Pacers. They never looked like winning.


Cavs defense is atrocious and to struggle the way that they did offensively and at home at the very start of the playoffs has to be troubling for them. Their defense has been an issue throughout the season, before and after the major roster upheaval that they had.

When they first brought in Clarkson, Nance and Hood I thought that they would be an instant injection of energy to a team that seemed to be completely lacking in fire and intensity. That lasted all of about a week or two and they resorted back to a similar level of minimal intensity as they displayed before the trades/acquisitions.
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Re: Re:

17 Apr 2018 00:09

Angliru wrote:
movingtarget wrote:Bucks go down to Celtics on OT. Entertaining game. Cavs lose their first game easily against the Pacers. They never looked like winning.


Cavs defense is atrocious and to struggle the way that they did offensively and at home at the very start of the playoffs has to be troubling for them. Their defense has been an issue throughout the season, before and after the major roster upheaval that they had.

When they first brought in Clarkson, Nance and Hood I thought that they would be an instant injection of energy to a team that seemed to be completely lacking in fire and intensity. That lasted all of about a week or two and they resorted back to a similar level of minimal intensity as they displayed before the trades/acquisitions.


I think Lue the Cavs coach is on the way out whether Lebron stays or not. The fact that the coach has also had some health problems is probably not helping either. If the Cavs lose game 2 I don't see them coming back and winning the series.
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Re: Re:

17 Apr 2018 02:20

movingtarget wrote:
Angliru wrote:
movingtarget wrote:Bucks go down to Celtics on OT. Entertaining game. Cavs lose their first game easily against the Pacers. They never looked like winning.


Cavs defense is atrocious and to struggle the way that they did offensively and at home at the very start of the playoffs has to be troubling for them. Their defense has been an issue throughout the season, before and after the major roster upheaval that they had.

When they first brought in Clarkson, Nance and Hood I thought that they would be an instant injection of energy to a team that seemed to be completely lacking in fire and intensity. That lasted all of about a week or two and they resorted back to a similar level of minimal intensity as they displayed before the trades/acquisitions.


I think Lue the Cavs coach is on the way out whether Lebron stays or not. The fact that the coach has also had some health problems is probably not helping either. If the Cavs lose game 2 I don't see them coming back and winning the series.


At the same time series swing drastically from one game to another. Philly destroyed Miami in game one and are now down by 15 in game 2. I can see LeBron rallying the troops, taking back homecourt advantage and winning the series. I still see trouble looming for them as they advance, especially with Toronto having stepped up their game this year, playing with a confidence that makes them dangerous in the east.
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Re: Re:

17 Apr 2018 10:13

Angliru wrote:
movingtarget wrote:
Angliru wrote:
movingtarget wrote:Bucks go down to Celtics on OT. Entertaining game. Cavs lose their first game easily against the Pacers. They never looked like winning.


Cavs defense is atrocious and to struggle the way that they did offensively and at home at the very start of the playoffs has to be troubling for them. Their defense has been an issue throughout the season, before and after the major roster upheaval that they had.

When they first brought in Clarkson, Nance and Hood I thought that they would be an instant injection of energy to a team that seemed to be completely lacking in fire and intensity. That lasted all of about a week or two and they resorted back to a similar level of minimal intensity as they displayed before the trades/acquisitions.


I think Lue the Cavs coach is on the way out whether Lebron stays or not. The fact that the coach has also had some health problems is probably not helping either. If the Cavs lose game 2 I don't see them coming back and winning the series.


At the same time series swing drastically from one game to another. Philly destroyed Miami in game one and are now down by 15 in game 2. I can see LeBron rallying the troops, taking back homecourt advantage and winning the series. I still see trouble looming for them as they advance, especially with Toronto having stepped up their game this year, playing with a confidence that makes them dangerous in the east.


Toronto bench has been better this year. Cavs could still win the East but they have to pick it up. 76ers are a young side and will only improve and if the Celtics get past the Bucks they are still without Hayward and Kyrie. Can't see them going past the second round. You are right about the swings within the series'. I think only one or two teams have ever won the title from fourth seed so the Cavs have history against them also.
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20 Apr 2018 20:41

Crying...he made a late layup when they were already winning...more crying! Maybe they should stomp their feet, fold their arms, and put their bottom lip over their top lip. :rolleyes:
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22 Apr 2018 03:36

Pelicans get the sweep. Bucks and Wizards get good wins. 76ers should be able to close out Miami in the next game but some good games involved. Spurs are done as expected. Rockets ............didn't expect that loss. Jazz and Oklahoma been a good series so far. Looking ominous for the Cavs. Even with Lebron scoring big points it's still not enough so far.
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08 May 2018 08:39

I wonder what LeBron would have to do to convince so many pig-headed fans that, yes, he really does belong in the same conversation with MJ.
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Re:

08 May 2018 11:54

Merckx index wrote:I wonder what LeBron would have to do to convince so many pig-headed fans that, yes, he really does belong in the same conversation with MJ.


Pacers played a lot more physical against him and it paid off and the Cav's bench were not supporting Lebron but against Toronto the Cavs have played well as a unit. Still I am surprised that Toronto got swept. Celtics should get past the 76ers with home court advantage and that series against the Cavs should be much better than the Toronto one. Once the Jazz lost Rubio it got a lot harder for them. Houston will wrap it up.
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Re: Re:

08 May 2018 19:35

Angliru wrote:
movingtarget wrote:
Angliru wrote:
movingtarget wrote:Bucks go down to Celtics on OT. Entertaining game. Cavs lose their first game easily against the Pacers. They never looked like winning.


Cavs defense is atrocious and to struggle the way that they did offensively and at home at the very start of the playoffs has to be troubling for them. Their defense has been an issue throughout the season, before and after the major roster upheaval that they had.

When they first brought in Clarkson, Nance and Hood I thought that they would be an instant injection of energy to a team that seemed to be completely lacking in fire and intensity. That lasted all of about a week or two and they resorted back to a similar level of minimal intensity as they displayed before the trades/acquisitions.


I think Lue the Cavs coach is on the way out whether Lebron stays or not. The fact that the coach has also had some health problems is probably not helping either. If the Cavs lose game 2 I don't see them coming back and winning the series.


At the same time series swing drastically from one game to another. Philly destroyed Miami in game one and are now down by 15 in game 2. I can see LeBron rallying the troops, taking back homecourt advantage and winning the series. I still see trouble looming for them as they advance, especially with Toronto having stepped up their game this year, playing with a confidence that makes them dangerous in the east.


I was certainly wrong about Toronto! DeRozan and Lowry just aren't elite level players that can carry a team. They need a third option, a versatile wing, someone that fits into the direction the league is going. DeRozan openly admitted in the post game presser that maybe the Cavs are "in their heads". A player admitting that shows that he's not the one capable of taking that team to the next level and neither is Lowry, whois a step below the elite point guards in the league (Curry, Paul, Irving, Westbrook). Not that there's something wrong with that but as their roster is currently constituted they need that aforementioned, but hard to find, star wing performer.
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Re: Re:

08 May 2018 23:17

Angliru wrote:
Angliru wrote:
movingtarget wrote:
Angliru wrote:
movingtarget wrote:Bucks go down to Celtics on OT. Entertaining game. Cavs lose their first game easily against the Pacers. They never looked like winning.


Cavs defense is atrocious and to struggle the way that they did offensively and at home at the very start of the playoffs has to be troubling for them. Their defense has been an issue throughout the season, before and after the major roster upheaval that they had.

When they first brought in Clarkson, Nance and Hood I thought that they would be an instant injection of energy to a team that seemed to be completely lacking in fire and intensity. That lasted all of about a week or two and they resorted back to a similar level of minimal intensity as they displayed before the trades/acquisitions.


I think Lue the Cavs coach is on the way out whether Lebron stays or not. The fact that the coach has also had some health problems is probably not helping either. If the Cavs lose game 2 I don't see them coming back and winning the series.


At the same time series swing drastically from one game to another. Philly destroyed Miami in game one and are now down by 15 in game 2. I can see LeBron rallying the troops, taking back homecourt advantage and winning the series. I still see trouble looming for them as they advance, especially with Toronto having stepped up their game this year, playing with a confidence that makes them dangerous in the east.


I was certainly wrong about Toronto! DeRozan and Lowry just aren't elite level players that can carry a team. They need a third option, a versatile wing, someone that fits into the direction the league is going. DeRozan openly admitted in the post game presser that maybe the Cavs are "in their heads". A player admitting that shows that he's not the one capable of taking that team to the next level and neither is Lowry, whois a step below the elite point guards in the league (Curry, Paul, Irving, Westbrook). Not that there's something wrong with that but as their roster is currently constituted they need that aforementioned, but hard to find, star wing performer.


it's been a fail for Toronto as number one seeds in the East. I think their coach gets one more year. Everyone was saying that Toronto have the deepest bench in the NBA and the stats support that. Even if they had met the Cavs in the next round it would have been the same. The Cavs have the answer to them at the moment as they always manage to step it up in the playoffs like Golden State. The 76ers are showing some inexperience and will get better while the Celtics have done well with good coaching so far with their best players out, how they go against the Cavs remains to be seen as I can't see the 76ers getting out of the series now. The Bucks will have a new coach for next season and their roster needs some tweaking as well. Oklahoma and Washington well where to start ? The Pacers and the Jazz I expect to improve next year. The Spurs might be at the crossroads.
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09 May 2018 11:31

I don't see Sixers getting outta the series now either. As long as we are talking next season, the 3-1 series lead of Celtics over Philla should show Philla they might just want to pursue another talent for next season. Lebron. What do you think the chances are of Lebron jumping to the Sixers next year?
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Re:

09 May 2018 16:01

on3m@n@rmy wrote:I don't see Sixers getting outta the series now either. As long as we are talking next season, the 3-1 series lead of Celtics over Philla should show Philla they might just want to pursue another talent for next season. Lebron. What do you think the chances are of Lebron jumping to the Sixers next year?


So much chatter going on with Lebron at the moment. Everyone is talking about the Lakers and the Knicks as the two big city markets but somehow I doubt it. The 76ers possibly or he stays and finishes his career with the Cavs which i think might be the way it turns out. I doubt he will be playing for many more years unlike Jason Terry still playing at 40 !
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Re:

09 May 2018 17:04

Merckx index wrote:I wonder what LeBron would have to do to convince so many pig-headed fans that, yes, he really does belong in the same conversation with MJ.


Not play in a conference devoid of competition and win more Finals than he loses.

He's more durable, I'll give him that. And he's an all-time great. He's not the best ever. I'd put MJ, Bird, Magic, Russell, Kareem, and maybe Kobe above him. He's more in the Shaq, Chamberlain, and Dr. J range IMO.
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Re: Re:

09 May 2018 23:32

red_flanders wrote:
Not play in a conference devoid of competition and win more Finals than he loses.


You misread my post. I didn’t say LeBron’s teams belonged in the discussion with Jordan’s Bulls.

I'd put MJ, Bird, Magic, Russell, Kareem, and maybe Kobe above him.


Player Efficiency Rating
1. Jordan 27.91
2. James 27.68
11. Kareem 24.58
13. Magic 24.11
21. Bird 23.50
24. Kobe 22.90

Win Shares
1. Kareem 273.41
2. James 219.36
5. Jordan 214.02
18. Kobe 172.74
20. Russell 163.61
24. Magic 155.79
27. Bird 145.83

Value over Replacement
1. James 124.87
2. Jordan 104.83
7. Kareem 86.03
10. Bird 79.74
12. Magic 77.40
17. Kobe 72.07

Box +/-
1. James 9.18
2. Jordan 8.09
6. Magic 7.22
7. Bird 7.17
13. Kareem 5.77
37. Kobe 3.88


https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/vorp_career.html
Merckx index
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Re: Re:

10 May 2018 05:24

Merckx index wrote:
red_flanders wrote:
Not play in a conference devoid of competition and win more Finals than he loses.


You misread my post. I didn’t say LeBron’s teams belonged in the discussion with Jordan’s Bulls.

I'd put MJ, Bird, Magic, Russell, Kareem, and maybe Kobe above him.


Player Efficiency Rating
1. Jordan 27.91
2. James 27.68
11. Kareem 24.58
13. Magic 24.11
21. Bird 23.50
24. Kobe 22.90

Win Shares
1. Kareem 273.41
2. James 219.36
5. Jordan 214.02
18. Kobe 172.74
20. Russell 163.61
24. Magic 155.79
27. Bird 145.83

Value over Replacement
1. James 124.87
2. Jordan 104.83
7. Kareem 86.03
10. Bird 79.74
12. Magic 77.40
17. Kobe 72.07

Box +/-
1. James 9.18
2. Jordan 8.09
6. Magic 7.22
7. Bird 7.17
13. Kareem 5.77
37. Kobe 3.88


https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/vorp_career.html


I didn't misread your post.

Stats are helpful and meaningful. They are not the only factor.
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Re: Re:

10 May 2018 11:48

red_flanders wrote:
I didn't misread your post.


I was being facetious. So many fans judge players by the number of championship rings they collect, as if their teammates had nothing to do with that. Also as if there weren't enormous variability in small sample sizes.

Stats are helpful and meaningful. They are not the only factor.


I agree they're not the only factor, but they're the only transparent factor--we know exactly how these numbers are arrived at. Anyone can have an opinion. The dirty little secret is that people's opinions are formed very much as advanced stats are, by a weighting process. The problem is that subjective opinions aren't transparent, not only not to others, but not even to ourselves. Mountains of psychological evidence attest to that.
Last edited by Merckx index on 10 May 2018 12:07, edited 1 time in total.
Merckx index
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Re: Re:

10 May 2018 11:59

Merckx index wrote:
red_flanders wrote:
Not play in a conference devoid of competition and win more Finals than he loses.


You misread my post. I didn’t say LeBron’s teams belonged in the discussion with Jordan’s Bulls.

I'd put MJ, Bird, Magic, Russell, Kareem, and maybe Kobe above him.


Player Efficiency Rating
1. Jordan 27.91
2. James 27.68
11. Kareem 24.58
13. Magic 24.11
21. Bird 23.50
24. Kobe 22.90

Win Shares
1. Kareem 273.41
2. James 219.36
5. Jordan 214.02
18. Kobe 172.74
20. Russell 163.61
24. Magic 155.79
27. Bird 145.83

Value over Replacement
1. James 124.87
2. Jordan 104.83
7. Kareem 86.03
10. Bird 79.74
12. Magic 77.40
17. Kobe 72.07

Box +/-
1. James 9.18
2. Jordan 8.09
6. Magic 7.22
7. Bird 7.17
13. Kareem 5.77
37. Kobe 3.88


https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/vorp_career.html


Excuse my ignorance but what does "Value over Replacement" mean and/or what does it encompass? I guess I'm too old to have actually taken in the analytical revolution in sports and numbers/math have always been my weak point.
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Re: Re:

10 May 2018 12:18

Angliru wrote:

Excuse my ignorance but what does "Value over Replacement" mean and/or what does it encompass? I guess I'm too old to have actually taken in the analytical revolution in sports and numbers/math have always been my weak point.


I'm probably older than you are. :)

You compare a player's performance to that of a replacement player, the latter being someone who isn't good enough to stick in the league, but who is readily available to replace a roster player lost to injury. The stat is probably more useful in baseball, where it originated (as in WAR, wins above replacement), but has also been applied to the NBA. Performance is based on box +/- (BPM), which is how many points a player is worth per 100 possessions. League average is set at 0, whereas replacement I think is -2. So an average player would be worth 2.0 VORP. On average, every 100 possessions (which is close to one game) this player would be worth two more points than a replacement player.

BPM, however, is quite complicated, determined by a multi-factorial formula. It's not considered the best statistic, but is popular because it's based on information contained in the box score (hence the name), so can be used to determine values for games decades ago. It takes into account all the player's box score contributions--scoring, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, turnovers, and in the context of his team's performance.
Merckx index
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Re: Re:

10 May 2018 13:28

So many fans judge players by the number of championship rings they collect, as if their teammates had nothing to do with that. Also as if there weren't enormous variability in small sample sizes.


I rather doubt that people make judgements as if the team has nothing to do with it, instead they simply weight those factors differently than you might.

It’s a rather subjective question, as things involved in defining greatness include a number of subjective factors, such as how a player may or may not have changed the way the game is played, how one rated their competitors, how a player is able to make others around him better, and even the cultural impact a player may or may not have had. If one looks at only statistics, depending on the quality of the data there might not be much to discuss. But I’m sure we’d agree that’s not the whole story, though we might disagree on the weighting. Chris Paul is the highest rated guard in modern playoff history according to some analyses, but I doubt anyone would argue he’s the best guard ever or even the best guard currently playing.


I agree they're not the only factor, but they're the only transparent factor--we know exactly how these numbers are arrived at. Anyone can have an opinion. The dirty little secret is that people's opinions are formed very much as advanced stats are, by a weighting process. The problem is that subjective opinions aren't transparent, not only not to others, but not even to ourselves. Mountains of psychological evidence attest to that.


I think we’re probably telling one another things we already know, but I will say that anyone can cite stats, just as anyone can have an opinion. And in subjective matters, that’s not enough. So yes, at the end of the day we will all have our opinions. I’m ok with that.
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Re: Re:

14 May 2018 17:52

Merckx index wrote:
Angliru wrote:

Excuse my ignorance but what does "Value over Replacement" mean and/or what does it encompass? I guess I'm too old to have actually taken in the analytical revolution in sports and numbers/math have always been my weak point.


I'm probably older than you are. :)

You compare a player's performance to that of a replacement player, the latter being someone who isn't good enough to stick in the league, but who is readily available to replace a roster player lost to injury. The stat is probably more useful in baseball, where it originated (as in WAR, wins above replacement), but has also been applied to the NBA. Performance is based on box +/- (BPM), which is how many points a player is worth per 100 possessions. League average is set at 0, whereas replacement I think is -2. So an average player would be worth 2.0 VORP. On average, every 100 possessions (which is close to one game) this player would be worth two more points than a replacement player.

BPM, however, is quite complicated, determined by a multi-factorial formula. It's not considered the best statistic, but is popular because it's based on information contained in the box score (hence the name), so can be used to determine values for games decades ago. It takes into account all the player's box score contributions--scoring, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, turnovers, and in the context of his team's performance.


Thanks for the explanation. Surprisingly to me, I actually understood most of that! Still I will avoid involving all of these analytics and formulas and just watch and enjoy the games.

Speaking of which, the Celtics win over the Cavaliers was not at all a surprise to me. They have the defensive discipline and the athletic versatility to give the Cavaliers trouble throughout this series. They have the long, strong bigs to make LeBron work and also the team quickness and speed to give their shooters a constant hand in their face on their three attempts. Offensively the Celtic dedication to sharing the ball and focus on taking advantage of mismatches makes a suspect Cavalier defense even more so. Danny Ainge really has stockpiled loads of talent on this team and it appears all of them are team oriented, minimal ego and have a strong dedication to defense.

I almost believe that they are a better team without Kyrie Irving. I say this because Irving has a habit of pounding the ball one-on-one while his teammates stand around to see what he's going to do with it. With Terry Rozier at the point the ball is constantly moving to find the open man or a mismatch. Plus Rozier is a far better defender, one-on-one and as a team/help defender. Of course Irving is one of the greatest ball handlers and finishers the league has ever seen but to me he is more of a scoring point, who occasionally gives up the ball than one that makes his teammates better.

Edit: ...and I predict that Marcus Morris, who played stellar defense on LeBron in this first game, will receive a couple of quick whistles in the first quarter of game 2 for phantom fouls due in large part to the lobbying by LeBron and coach Lue that Morris was allowed to play more physical with LeBron and that the ref's "missed" several calls. Morris will be quickly relegated to the bench (unjustifiably). My crystal ball told me so. ;)
Last edited by Angliru on 14 May 2018 20:12, edited 2 times in total.
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