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Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

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05 Jan 2018 13:54

JTB is a beast!!! he is clearly better than fourcade, but I still think fourcade will inprove a lot until peyongchang but if JTB improves too... fourcade doesn't have a chance
portugal11
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05 Jan 2018 15:58

...If JTB does well on the range.

But his skiing is clearly something else. Today he could almost afford two misses, in a sprint to boot.
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

05 Jan 2018 18:38

Rain in Oberhof. Rain in Oberstdorf. Anything that starts with "O" in Germany should be called 'OMG' Oh my Germany. Seriously though, it's almost comical how often Oberhof has crappy weather. Oberstdorf isn't far behind either in that regard, though in 5-12 years ago it was actually pretty good. I remember the weather being almost perfect for everything but the 50km at World's in 2005. The first ever TDS in Dec 06/Jan 07 was hit by low snow. To be fair, that winter was pretty bad all across Europe. After that TDS, I think it took until the TDS 2011 to get races back in Oberstdorf. Oberhof is a mainstay on the IBU, so that will not change anytime soon.

It appears the conditions are much better in Val di Fiemme (though it's supposed to be +5 or so for the mens race tomorrow). It will freeze overnight, almost no wind and the pictures I saw form teams training today, it looked really nice, perfect tracks. But again a 2.5 km loop. Not sure why they keep insisting on that if they have enough snow. Three laps of 5km would be ideal.

I don't see Cologna losing the tour. He skied convincingly in the two distance races in Lenzerheide, did what he was supposed to yesterday and Ustiugov isn't the same skier he was last year. Plus Ustiugov has some muscle problems with his back, according to his coach and there were rumors of him not even starting tomorrow, but as of now, he is on the start list. If he isn't bluffing, he should probably pull out and not risk anything. His chances dramatically decreased when the sprint was cancelled. If he continues to Alpe Cermis, he will need to likely deal with Sundby for 2nd, so his bet is to grab the bonus points tomorrow and get a top 3 and hope that Sundby doesn't get many bonus seconds, including the top podium.

Sundby will need to essentially go for everything tomorrow and on the Alpe Cermis and hope Cologna either has terrible skis tomorrow or simply runs out of energy. Since the 2nd option is highly unlikely, Sundby will need a special performance and hope Cologna's skis are slick or really slow. Maybe Sundby is sandbagging a bit, thinking about Korea.
BullsFan22
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

06 Jan 2018 14:35

God, I hate Fourcade so much. Such a disrespectful move after that last shot, and then after finishing, doesn't even wait around to congratulate the other podium finishers. Just disappears off, no photos or anything
craigmalone
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

06 Jan 2018 15:02

craigmalone wrote:God, I hate Fourcade so much. Such a disrespectful move after that last shot, and then after finishing, doesn't even wait around to congratulate the other podium finishers. Just disappears off, no photos or anything

He does that 90% of the time
"If I had stopped for coffee, they would have done the same. They never got off my wheel." - Fabian Cancellara after Paris-Roubaix 2011.
User avatar Cance > TheRest
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

06 Jan 2018 17:46

craigmalone wrote:God, I hate Fourcade so much. Such a disrespectful move after that last shot, and then after finishing, doesn't even wait around to congratulate the other podium finishers. Just disappears off, no photos or anything

he is a great friend of tarjei and JTB and he has a good relationship with svendsen so I'm sure it wasn't on purpose
portugal11
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

06 Jan 2018 18:03

portugal11 wrote:
craigmalone wrote:God, I hate Fourcade so much. Such a disrespectful move after that last shot, and then after finishing, doesn't even wait around to congratulate the other podium finishers. Just disappears off, no photos or anything

he is a great friend of tarjei and JTB and he has a good relationship with svendsen so I'm sure it wasn't on purpose

It's a response to a comment Emil Svendsen made yesterday in a Norwegian media ("Martin is scared of our strength").

It's his way of telling them "I respect you, but I'm not scared."
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

06 Jan 2018 18:18

Very entertaining race for both the men and women today in Val di Fiemme! Great to see Stadlober breaking through and earning her first ever World Cup podium! This was the first podium for an Austrian female xc skier since Maria Theurl in 1999!!! We'll see more of Teresa I am certain of that! Weng effectively won the tour today. Even if Oestberg has the race of her life tomorrow, she won't beat weng on such an uphill. Weng can have a below average climbing day and still cope with Oestberg. Oestberg was tired, but I think her skis were not as good as Weng's. She was already slipping in the first lap. It reminded me of the final stage in the 2016 tour of Canada where Weng started with a 30 second gap on Johaug and her skis wee AWFUl. She lost all of that very early on. It wasn't that dreadful for Ingvild today, but her skis were noticeably slicker than Weng's.

Diggins skied well to stay in contention for the overall podium tomorrow, but I don't thin she'll beat Parmakoski. We'll see what Stadlober can do. She should do well on the climb as well.

The young, U23 Russian women Nepryaeva and Sedova are continuing their good season and they are slowly moving on up. With those two, plus Belorukova, who already has a individual podium, a team sprint win (from Toblach last year) and a World's silver from team sprint in Lahti, the Russians have three exceptional talents on their women's squad. Not sure who they'll put as the fourth skier for the relay, they have options, but regardless, they'll be a dark horse for a medal at the Olympics and if they continue to improve and not get overtrained, they'll be challenging for the podiums victories for years to come.

What a pace in the men's race, from the very first meter to the last. Wow. This mass start classic race in Val di Fiemme, whether it's 15km or 20km always delivers. Wonderful race from Poltoranin. I haven't seen skis this great since Alsgaard's in the 30km in 2003 World's on those same trails. Perfect kick and perfect glide. Add to that a man in shape with great technique and he becomes almost unbeatable. He won't stay on the podium, but I don't think that was ever in the cards for him. He always gets at least one podium in the TDS when he races and now he'll look to the Olympic 50km classic, maybe even the classic sprint, if his form is good. I can't see him being outside the top 5 in a distance classic race and the Olympic 50km could be special for him.

Cologna, not a lot to say about him apart from the usual rock solid skiing and smarts that he shows. Never phased nor troubled. Congratulations on his 4th TDS title. Unless he decides not to start, he's wrapped another one in the bag. Not sure where he'll race after tomorrow. Definitely not in Dresden and maybe not even in Planica in two weeks time. Seefeld for the pre-world's is probably where he'll race next. I also think a lot of contenders that raced the TDS will take the next two weeks off from racing. They'd be smart to. Certainly not racing next weekend. I expect him to walk away with at least one medal from Korea.

Harvey also did well. He's the only Canadian on tour, and I read he's got 7 (?!?) coaches/wax techs at the tour...So his job has been quite easy this week. Didn't have the best glide on his skis today, which may have lost him the race, plus as they were cresting the final uphill and heading towards the stadium, Poltoranin nipped inside of him and just passed him to get behind Cologna's slipstream. Cologna didn't have the best descent but the other three guys did a nice job of drafting and shot past him in the finish. Nothing strange about that.

Larkov has always been in the shadows of his more established teammates, but today he finally broke through for his first individual podium. Hats off to him! Skied a controlled race. Didn't really bother with the bonus sprints and worked his way towards his front where he just latched on by the last lap or so. Well deserved podium.

Sundby, anemic again. He should get on the podium tomorrow, simply through his frame and efficiency.

Ustiugov was brave to go for the two bonus sprints, but, perhaps predictably, paid the price for it and lost more than he gained I think. That's a pity, but even with a perfect race, he would have a tough time against Cologna tomorrow. Now he has to deal with Harvey, Sundby and perhaps Bolshunov for 2nd and 3rd place. Didn't look that tired either during the race nor at the finish. Not saying he didn't give it his all, but if he didn't give it his all, it's a strange maneuver to go for it at both bonus sprints and then lose 40 seconds...That said, Poltoranin was smart. He kept the pace high after the last sprint. You don't always see that. Harvey did the same after the first sprint.

Bolshunov, another top 5 result from him. For basically two months now, since early November, he's been racing almost every week and doing very well. Sits 2nd in the overall WC and with an outside shot at the overall TDS podium tomorrow. It's his first tour, he's barely 21, he is not built for that climb and he already has so much racing in his legs. Not sure he'll have the legs to get on the podium, but his form is there. I just hope the coaches are smart with him and Chervotkin (he too had another solid race today, finishing 12th) and they give them enough rest after the tour. Right now they are locks for that relay team, alongside probably Larkov and definitely Ustiugov as an anchor.

The Norwegian men were not that impressive today. Toenseth tried to hang with the leaders but lost a bit in the last couple km's. Holund and Sundby in the top ten in the overall and both will be looking to move up. Holund does have a shot at the podium tomorrow, based on his climb last year and the general solid form he has in distance races, but i don't think guys like Havey, Sundby and Ustiugov or even Bolshunov will just drop dead. That said, it is the end of the tour, it is the final climb and the conditions could be nasty and slow, which will favor guys like Holund.

Rickardsson had a good race and so did Svensson. Probably Svensson's best distance race at the WC this year, maybe ever. Hellner lost more time today. A top 10 is what he'll aim tomorrow. Manificat is even further back. Not a good tour for him, apart from posting the fastest time of day in the Lenzerheide pursuit. Of course he could have the best time tomorrow and be content with his tour, especially if he moves up significantly.

As a side note, the number of women's finishers tomorrow could be the lowest ever at a TDS, if it isn't already. Pretty sad actually.
BullsFan22
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06 Jan 2018 18:25

Great stuff today. Both races in Val di Fiemme providing nice action. Cologna is really back to his best. I'm really impressed by Bolshunov this season. Just turned 21, what potential he has. Heidi really did well today and has basically sealed the overall now, really avenging her poor finale in the previous stage.

Also, Kamil Stoch did what Hannawald did fifteen years ago and won all four stages of the Four Hills Tournament. I remember when Hannawald did it, I was only seven years old and the favorite thing I knew was watching ski jumping on Eurosport. Now he's done it again. You can only beat what's in front of you and when Schliri has lost his mojo, Kraft can't handle the pressure and Freitag has a nasty fall and the Norwegians are far too inconsistent, only Stoch is left standing. What a display of dominance.
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

06 Jan 2018 19:29

Well easy business for Colona. He doesn't need to go in the red tomorrow, he can more or less go up the final climb i cruise control
Overall good races today. I certainly would still prefer longer loos than only 2,5km ones.
Anyway, I think Sundby made a mistake competing in this one. He's clearly Fading and I don't think this will help him at all in his quest for olypic Gold.
The swedes need a miracle if they want to repeat in Korea what they did in 2010 and 1014.
By the way, talking about the olympics. Does anyone know if the profiles of the xc skiing trails can be seen anywhere on the iternet? I couldn't find anything. Or maybe someone remebers last year's world Cup. What are the tracks like?
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

07 Jan 2018 08:39

Alexandre B. wrote:
portugal11 wrote:
craigmalone wrote:God, I hate Fourcade so much. Such a disrespectful move after that last shot, and then after finishing, doesn't even wait around to congratulate the other podium finishers. Just disappears off, no photos or anything

he is a great friend of tarjei and JTB and he has a good relationship with svendsen so I'm sure it wasn't on purpose

It's a response to a comment Emil Svendsen made yesterday in a Norwegian media ("Martin is scared of our strength").

It's his way of telling them "I respect you, but I'm not scared."


He isn't scared of the Norwegian strength, but he should be terrified of JTB who is clearly in far better skiing form. It must be a worry for someone like Fourcade to know he has to basically do a perfect race to win now, after having so much of an advantage over the last few years.
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07 Jan 2018 09:10

as always, the climb is my fave race of the tour...not withstanding the screwed up tour format this year.

manificat and hellner,the guys who would normally be a real danger to the leaders, are more that 3 minutes behind. no intrigue there as most they can 'squeeze' is about a minute.

but poltoranin, ustiougov, harvey, bolshunov and sundby should decide the silver and bronze among themselves. they start 1:15, 1:22, 1:23, 1:40, and 1:42 behind cologna in the same order. holund will likely get closer but by my reckoning is too far to interfere. as is chervotkin who is an unknown quantity. i expect a surprise from him.

who will take the 2nd and the 3d ? unfortunately but objectively, one of those spots should go to sundby who, despite being off form, is 5 to 10 kg lighter than polto, sergey, harvey and bolshunov. .. b/c no one had cancelled the laws of physics though, i admit, i may rely on them a tad too rigidly sometimes...who else ? i'd like to have there ustiogov, but feel he's both too tired and off form. my next choice would be bolshunov, though he's a big guy. he showed good recovery and staying power. he also looks very efficient in both main skating techniques. particularly in V2. i dislike harvey, but fear he's in a better shape than the race. i count on him NEVER being good on the climb.
Last edited by python on 07 Jan 2018 09:12, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

07 Jan 2018 09:11

Singer01 wrote:
Alexandre B. wrote:
portugal11 wrote:
craigmalone wrote:God, I hate Fourcade so much. Such a disrespectful move after that last shot, and then after finishing, doesn't even wait around to congratulate the other podium finishers. Just disappears off, no photos or anything

he is a great friend of tarjei and JTB and he has a good relationship with svendsen so I'm sure it wasn't on purpose

It's a response to a comment Emil Svendsen made yesterday in a Norwegian media ("Martin is scared of our strength").

It's his way of telling them "I respect you, but I'm not scared."


He isn't scared of the Norwegian strength, but he should be terrified of JTB who is clearly in far better skiing form. It must be a worry for someone like Fourcade to know he has to basically do a perfect race to win now, after having so much of an advantage over the last few years.

Johannes said it himself: "it feels more like I'm giving him the wins lately". Probably a bit arrogant (as was Fourcade's gesture), but it is the truth right now. Johannes only needed 1 missed shot less yesterday and the day before, and he'd have beaten Fourcade convincingly on both occasions.
"If I had stopped for coffee, they would have done the same. They never got off my wheel." - Fabian Cancellara after Paris-Roubaix 2011.
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Re:

07 Jan 2018 10:11

python wrote:
but poltoranin, ustiougov, harvey, bolshunov and sundby should decide the silver and bronze among themselves. they start 1:15, 1:22, 1:23, 1:40, and 1:42 behind cologna in the same order. holund will likely get closer but by my reckoning is too far to interfere. as is chervotkin who is an unknown quantity. i expect a surprise from him.


I wouldn't definitely rule Holund out even for 2nd place... last year he was around 45s faster than Ustiugov, 30s faster than Sundby and almost a minute faster than Harvey in the last climb (climb only). Today he leaves 51/50s behind Ustiugov/Harvey and 31s behind Sundby.

Futhermore, I think the starting order is in favor for Holund as I don't see Poltoranin/Ustiugov/Harvey keeping too high pace in the flat before the climb. If Holund gets to the climb within 30-40s to the group ahead, he will stand a real chance. Especially when he seems to be stronger this year than last year, which can't be said to all the rest, but Gologna ahead of him, Bolshunov being the wild card.

My prediction for the final podium is Cologna/Sundby/Holund.
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07 Jan 2018 10:29

DNS for Hellner (cold) and Ustiugov (back injury), not too surprisingly
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

07 Jan 2018 10:30

Northug came in 48th at Piteå, 5 minutes behind the winner. Not looking good for his chances for making the olympics.
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

07 Jan 2018 11:22

Blaaswix wrote:Northug came in 48th at Piteå, 5 minutes behind the winner. Not looking good for his chances for making the olympics.

Yes, that's bad. Heikkinen also did badly there. Probably trained too much and fatigued, as he often does.

Weng won The tour as expected. Österberg was no match to her. Thought pärmä would hold diggins off for third but couldnt. The dilemma for weng is that her form is clearly climbing quite quickly and the olympics are still a month away.
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Re: Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

07 Jan 2018 11:43

Hellner sick. Ustiugov back issues.

Hellner has had a tough season thus far. The rumors are this will be his final season.

Ustiugov shouldn't have raced yesterday if he had back pain. Why risk anything a month before the Olympics? Cramer apparently said he could barely move. If that's true that's a terrible sign. Hopefully he can sort that out and recover.

This opens the door for everyone to probably Holund. Poltoranin is not good enough on this climb. Harvey had an ok climb last year, Sundby isn't in great form and nobody knows what Bolshunov is capable as this is his first tour. Interested to see ho far Manificat can move up and what Chervotkin can do.
BullsFan22
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07 Jan 2018 14:13

Btw, I want to see JTB in the 15km freestyle in the Olympics. His skiing pace is insane right now.
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Re:

07 Jan 2018 14:14

jsem94 wrote:Btw, I want to see JTB in the 15km freestyle in the Olympics. His skiing pace is insane right now.

I would like to be able to see any biathlete right about now, given the visibility in Oberhof.
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