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Re: Re:

18 Mar 2017 10:12

ferryman wrote:
Brullnux wrote:I'm not sure if the EU will make Scotland join or just let them stay as a member through an 'exceptional circumstances' type agreement. There's also the problem of oil prices, which are much lower than the worst case scenario that the SNP predicted in 2014

Oil does not make a country. And the SNP did not make a play on it in 2014.


No it doesn't, but it certainly contributes. The Scottish deficit last year increased to 9.5% of their GDP, which is beyond what the EU tends to ask for. This rise came in conjunction with a fall in oil tax revenue of almost 2 billion. If Scotland wants to succeed as an independent nation, it has to make a play for the City. That will also come with lowering corporation taxes, though. Otherwise, Scotland can try to become an enormous exporter of Green Energy to the UK and the EU. Scotland is pretty windy after all. But that will take a few years' investment to get to. Whatever the SNP have in mind, they need to have an actual plan to reduce the deficit and increase revenue. Seeing how politics is going in recent years, I doubt they will.
Brullnux
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22 Mar 2017 17:18

Terrible incident in the Houses of Parliament. One officer stabbed, assailant killed. Then on Westminster Bridge a Nice-style attack except this time luckily with a car and not a truck. One dead and at least ten injured, with 'catastrophic' injuries. Motives unknown: the Westminster Bridge attack seems very similar to previous Jihadist attacks but the Houses of Parliament one is different, as previously for the most part Islamic Terror doesn't often target the people in power, apart from the 9/11 attacks. Police still 'open-minded' to why, but a full counter terror operation has begun. Hopefully they all pull through.
Brullnux
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18 Apr 2017 10:03

General Election Incoming?
del1962
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18 Apr 2017 16:30

Yesm there is an election. May wants a larger majority so that she can get through all of her reforms without any hitch - right now there are too many Tory MPs that don't share the same vision that May and her three brexiteers do. Too many will vote down exteme measures for her to be sure, but she can't deselect them in the next two years, so just needs a majority large enough for them not to be an issue. Perhaps it might make her have a bit more leverage in Europe. Say she does get elected with 44% of the vote, she goes from being an unelected figure who has no evidence that she speaks on behalf of a nation, to one of the most backed leaders in Western Europe. In my mind at least, it would be a better position for her to be in. Especially as most of Europe hates her.

Anyway, personally: ****. This election could be cataclysmic demolition for Labour. Right now they lag 20% behind in polls and Corbyn is ridicously unpopular, while May still somehow has a postive approval rating.

The only way that Labour can win at this point isn't convincing over 15% of the populace to vote for their policies, but to destory May's repuation. The Tories are experts at doing this. In 2015, they won because they made Miliband so very disliked (he didn't help himself there, granted). In 1992, they pulled off a surprising victory by insulting and slowly disintegrating Kinnock's character. 1983, 1970, 1951 - all noticeable other examples.

They need to launch a full scale relentless smear campaign. Attack her, her past, her husband's (secretive and slightly dodgy) career, her frontbench and their pasts. When the Conservatives do this, they have the use of most the tabloids and other newspapers. Labour does not have this luxury, but the rise of social media can only help them in this regard. Theresa May, despite being a firm believer in the 'nothing to hide, nothing to fear' doctrine, has often spoken about her unwillingness to release her tax history. Amber Rudd worked for a company which specialised in offshore accounts, and like May, says that some things 'are better left private'. Not our emails, internet history or phone calls though - the government is allowed to look at those. She undoubtedly has multiple skeletons in her closet. Phillip Hammond is too desperately dull for anyone to care, but BoJo also has had troubles with tax returns in his past - iirc, the US had a few words to say to him about this. Liam Fox has been fired from Defence Secretary was fired for releasing top secret info to his friends. David Davis Davis David is worth investigating. Brexit will be key in this election, and Labour needs the electorate to ask themselves whether they really want this group of randomly assorted imbeciles to lead negotiations. Get Assange and Wikileaks on their side. That will do a world of good to them.

However, this information is difficult to obtain unless they actualy do manage to get Assange to hack some things for them, and even then there may be nothing there (excpet for Rudd, who I am certain about). I am unsure about May and BoJo (although I think May's husband has partaken in a few schemes, and I can't see BoJo being completely clean). So then what's needed? Show some passion for once! Corbyn is very uncharismatic. But luckily for him, May is even more uncharismatic and boring. The public just see her as a safe pair of hands, depsite never having achieved anything in her political career whatsoever (apart from becoming PM - I mean something that isn't immensely cynical and doesn't involve power, but policies and actions).

Take the 1:20 idea and run with it. Come up with a few more radical ideas that will suit this wave of anger in status quo politics. Have a clear stance on everything - taxes, NHS, economy, and most imprtantly, Brexit. A coherent strategy on Brexit can win the election.

I am not normally a fan of such macchiavellian measures. I do believe that it is easily possible to win an election with thought-out policies, a clear plan and some charisma and personality even if your policies are radical. However, Corbyn is a bit of a charisma-less joke, so extreme times call for extreme measures.
Brullnux
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18 Apr 2017 17:25

Also, Labour need to create an alliance with the Lib Dems if they want to win. I think that a lot of Lib Dems would rather vote Labour than Conservatives, especially if that is what they instruct. So instead of putting up two candidates in places like Bath (tory vs lib dem, labour and greens on about 10% each), unite as one and take the seat. Vice versa too.

May probably won't take part in any debates. I'll just leave it at that.
Brullnux
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18 Apr 2017 17:39

Brullnux
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18 Apr 2017 17:44

I am not sure why you are advocating wikileaks whould influence an election

Face the facts Corbyn is unelectable purely because he is unelectable, he may go down well in the extreme fringe of left wing politics but amongst the rank and file former labour voters I talk to he has no chance and rightly so.

I doubt May has any real skeletons anyway, she is to staid for that and her contrast with Cameron is probably a plus in the minds of the voters especially disullioned Labour voters who don't like the Eton thing that hangs round Cameron

The really interesting thing will be how the lib dems do, if they get a strong enough vote it might encourage a softer brexit and I think they can pick up votes from Labour and Tories, I expect a migration of UKIP voters to the Tories and Labour voters to both the Tories and Lib Dems and some pro europe tories to the Lib Dems, though I am not sure if Tim Farron helps himself.

At least with Corby comprehensibly defeated then Labour can start rebuilding there party, but they are in a worse state than in the 80s and it took a long time then,
del1962
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Re:

18 Apr 2017 18:03

del1962 wrote:I am not sure why you are advocating wikileaks whould influence an election

Face the facts Corbyn is unelectable purely because he is unelectable, he may go down well in the extreme fringe of left wing politics but amongst the rank and file former labour voters I talk to he has no chance and rightly so.

I doubt May has any real skeletons anyway, she is to staid for that and her contrast with Cameron is probably a plus in the minds of the voters especially disullioned Labour voters who don't like the Eton thing that hangs round Cameron

The really interesting thing will be how the lib dems do, if they get a strong enough vote it might encourage a softer brexit and I think they can pick up votes from Labour and Tories, I expect a migration of UKIP voters to the Tories and Labour voters to both the Tories and Lib Dems and some pro europe tories to the Lib Dems, though I am not sure if Tim Farron helps himself.

At least with Corby comprehensibly defeated then Labour can start rebuilding there party, but they are in a worse state than in the 80s and it took a long time then,


Because, and I felt the same with the US, honestly I have little trouble with details that in my mind should be made open to the public be so, despite the admittedly unsavoury means. I felt that Clinton's belittlement of Sanders supporters should have been made public. Likewise, I believe that Rudd's career history and tax returns shouldn't be a clandestine matter. I agree that May probably isn't doing anything particularly immoral, but her husband has worked all his life in the high finance, specifically in hedge funds and investment funds. I'd say take a random sampling of about 100 and more than 70 have an offshore account of some sort. The wikileaks thing was a half joke (I'd rather it didn't happen), but I see little difference between that and the Sun and Daily Mail influencing an election through lies and libellous slander. In fact, wikileaks is more honest than either of those publications.

May is a right wing populist, though. She has effectively taken all of UKIP's manifesto and made it hers. However disillusioned you may be, you shouldn't vote for someone who is further right than any previous PM, apart from Thatcher. I have no doubt many will though, as Farron as you say is a very weak politician and hard to take seriously. If the Liberals had a Clegg of 2010 or a Kennedy then they will be doing very well indeed. I have a feeling that the turnout won't be that high either.

This recovery should take less than the 1980's as whatever happens, I don't think May can win on Brexit and the fallout. Unless Le Pen wins, that is, Europe will be very tough on the UK and cripple it as a warning to other countries who may try to leave. 2022 should be a legitimate goal with a more respectable leader than Corbyn.
Brullnux
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18 Apr 2017 18:58

Interesting timing for us Scots. We've got the local elections coming on 4th may, where, up until today it was accepted the snp would get a bloody nose. With aGE just a month after, the SNP are in a great place to play this. I genuinely don't think the Scottish public will be fooled by this, rather see it as it for it is. A mandate for the Tories to gain absolute power for what they want to do with a hard brexit with a swing further to the right with a mandate until 2022. We shall see, but it's big gamble she has taken with Scotland. But of course she might not give a fook about that for absolute power.
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18 Apr 2017 19:05

I don't think May even cares about Scotland. To her you guys are just some people even further north than Birmingham (!). Although you can still get out of this car crash (don't think it's the best option for Scotland though, but it does become more appealing by the minute)
Brullnux
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19 Apr 2017 09:44

If anything May would want the SNP to dominate Scotland. It plays well with the Us Vs. Them narrative both sides seem desperate to push and removes a large chunk of left-leaning voters from having an influence. Scottish Independence is a much more than a purely political issue and May knows that. The SNP could hold every elected position available north of the border and an Independence referendum still wouldn't be a sure thing.


As for what's best for Scotland now, I think I probably can speak for the majority when I say "F*$%k knows, but I'm sick of being the passenger in this car crash".
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24 Apr 2017 16:08

Depressing that the shamelessly attention seeking and careerist Ruth Davidson is one of the most popular and trusted politicians in the UK, when she has never said one thing about any policy ever and just makes wide catch all comments that will please everyone and anyone.

Like Trudeau but more right wing.
Brullnux
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24 Apr 2017 16:49

Image
User avatar Jagartrott
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Re:

26 Apr 2017 13:50

Jagartrott wrote:Image


Easy answer to those who want to remain, vote lib dem, if they get enough votes then it will be hard to ignore
del1962
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26 Apr 2017 16:30

The Tories and the Lib Dems are essentially employing the same tactic. The Tories, with May as the central character, are casting the election as a 'vote for Britain', if you vote for May you will give her the mandate to fight for what is best for Britain in the upcoming Brexit negotiations with the EU.

Of course this is a lie. It will make no difference to her negotiating poisition with the EU, it will make a difference with her negotiating position within her own Parliament ie. Voting for her will mean that the nation will have to accept whatever deals she gets from EU negotiation, there will be no opportunity to reject a potentially bad deal. Equally, voting for May puts her in the same position with regards to domestic politics. The Tories will run riot. As it stands they currently have a small majority but no effective opposition. What they are hoping for is a massive majority and no opposition.

The Lib Dems are hoping to appeal for the 48% who voted against Brexit. Again, by casting the general election as a rerun of the EU referendum they are hoping to accrue non Lib Dem voters. Its an unashamed attempt at gaining more parliamentary seats after their near eradication in 2015.

Labour, meanwhile, are encumbered by a leader who is there by dint of a cult of personality, but lacks the personality part.

Its a horrible mess, and I fear we have at least several decades of miserable times ahead.
mcduff
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29 Apr 2017 19:10

This seems utter madness - especially in Brexit times with less access to labour from the EU:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/29/nhs-nurses-pay-cut-12-per-cent-over-decade
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Re:

29 Apr 2017 21:35

Jagartrott wrote:This seems utter madness - especially in Brexit times with less access to labour from the EU:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/29/nhs-nurses-pay-cut-12-per-cent-over-decade

Madness, or part of a tactic to make the NHS fail and privatise it?
Brullnux
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30 Apr 2017 10:02

I can't believe Crosby is going for the 'strong and stable government' plea again. Let's just cast our minds back to 24 months ago:

Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband.


That stability worked out really well didn't it? Britain leaving the EU, an enormous upheaval of the political system and laws, possible loss of trade, a prime minister resigning, the shortest administration in 43 years, Scotland maybe announcing a second indyref, Northern Ireland looking closer to uniting than ever before (still fairly far away), a country more divided than ever, a second election in just three years and possibly the most tumultuous time in British politics since the early seventies. I think the 'chaos' would have been easier. And yet, despite all this, people still believe that the Tories are the party of stability.
Brullnux
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30 Apr 2017 10:09

May's basic position is "Vote for me because we need strong and stable leadership."

Strong leadership: what has she done in the 9 months she has been PM? Dodging the issue on whether she knew about the Trident failure is not strong leadership, Backtracking on the only significant change announced in the budget is not strong leadership. Not one practical step towards her beloved re-introduction of grammar schools is not strong leadership. Refusing to speak against Trump's attempted ban on travel from Muslim countries is not strong leadership. Dithering over Hinkley Point C, then approving something she had said she was opposed to when she was Home Secretary, is not strong leadership. Conceding to Trump's insistence on an early, and with rarely granted joint session address, state visit is not strong leadership. Total failure to facilitate any breaking of the impasse of formation of a Stormont government is not strong leadership. Unwillingness to talk with any clarity on future tax and evasiveness on any manifesto intentions is not strong leadership.

Or before she was PM? As an avowed Remainer at the time of the referendum, where was her strong leadership during that campaign? As Home Secretary, was tabloid style citing one minor piece of evidence in a case as though it were the determining issue ( "because – and I am not making this up – he had a pet cat") strong leadership? Is acting in contempt of court strong leadership? Is allowing a huge backlog in passport applications strong leadership?

Stable government: that might indeed have been the motivation for the election, because the GE avoids the risk of by-elections being forced in the seats under investigation. The idea that rules to avoid using financial advantage unfairly are adequately enforced by financial sanctions at a scale way below the sums involved is laughable, but her response to that issue on Andrew Marr this morning was precisely that.
But can there be stable government with a PM who is fundamentally unstable in her own opinions? She has more U-turns on her record than the climb to Alpe d'Huez (See, I remembered that iti s a cycling forum).

I believe that this election is based primarily on a selfish ambition: she fancies being PM for 6, and maybe 11 or 16, years rather than 4. Brexit is due to come about in spring 2019, May knows that it will cause enormous upheaval, disruption and cost, and that an general election a year later will almost certainly be lost by the incumbent government. By having a 2017 election, she pushes the next election back to 2022, 3 years after Brexit, there might have been some re-stabilisation. So this election is essentially brought about by her desire to be sitting PM with a chance of re-election in 2027, rather than being former party leader by mid May 2020.
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30 Apr 2017 10:29

I think it could actually be worse by 2022. The impact of Brexit may not yet have been felt by 2020, especially considering there is no chance in hell that the trade talks will take only a year (assuming the talks on what the EU is prioritising also take a year). They'll at best be done by 2021, especially considering most countries take several years to ever come up with a deal with the EU or any other major power actually. Obviously now that I say that, it'll easily have been completed by 2019. Of course, if we go back to WTO rules then the Tories are lucky that the next election is in 2022, but it could well be that it backfires and the effects of Brexit are not truly felt until then.
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