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British politics

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Re: British politics

10 Jun 2017 11:20

The views of the DUP are more of a symbolism thing though, like Tim Farron's socially conservative private religious views.

It will not affect policy making outside of NI
User avatar SeriousSam
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Re: Re:

10 Jun 2017 11:37

ferryman wrote:
Netserk wrote:So Sam, what did the market have as odds for a conservative majority? :p

I checked just before the polling stations closed (so before the exit poll was announced) with my bookie and it was 1/6 for a majority...


I only regularly followed the "most seats" market. 1/6 for a majority seems wrong even without the benefit of hindsight.

There wasn't enough polling data at the constituency level to predict outcomes with traditional polls, and those that used sophisticated methods (MRP)to overcome the lack of data, like yougov, predicted a hung parliament/that it's too close to call.

And if you only just looked at national polls, the trend was as follows:
Image

So we appear to have a case here where the markets failed to optimally aggregate publicly available information. We shouldn't however draw any hasty conclusions about this regarding the extremely accurate Tour de France market.
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10 Jun 2017 11:45

Sam, I think you are saying sport is more predictable than politics
del1962
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Re: British politics

10 Jun 2017 11:51

SeriousSam wrote:The views of the DUP are more of a symbolism thing though, like Tim Farron's socially conservative private religious views.

It will not affect policy making outside of NI

The DUP will pull out of the pact if there is any socially liberal policy, and have said that they strongly desire a hard border with the ROI. Any socially liberal policy will still pass, as there is no chance the Lib Dems, Labour and the SNP will not vote for it, but it will out a major strain on their relationship.

The key difference between Farron and Foster's DUP is that while both probably think gay sex and abortion is a sin, Farron, being a liberal, will not campaign against it as in theory he should believe that everyone has every right to sin or do something against his own personal views as he doesn't believe the state should interfere with people's lives. The DUP do not. They believe that the state can and should regulate in people's personal lives, in order to comply with their religious beliefs. They are traditional, old-fashioned conservatives.
Brullnux
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Re: British politics

10 Jun 2017 14:05

Brullnux wrote:The DUP will pull out of the pact if there is any socially liberal policy, and have said that they strongly desire a hard border with the ROI.


They absolutely did not say that, can't imagine what gave you that impression. See especially No 7
Their manifesto:
DURING THE NEGOTIATIONS THE DUP WANTS TO SEE
A FOCUS ON THE FOLLOWING PRIORITIES AND OBJECTIVES:
1. Successful outward-looking knowledge-based economy in
Northern Ireland
2. Ease of trade with the Irish Republic and throughout the European
Union

3. Maintenance of the Common Travel Area
4. Strengthened relationships across the four components parts of the
United Kingdom with no internal borders
5. Northern Ireland-specific solutions achieved through active
Executive engagement
6. Particular circumstances of Northern Ireland with a land border
with the EU fully reflected

7. Frictionless border with Irish Republic assisting those working or
travelling in the other jurisdiction

8. Progress on new free trade deals with the rest of the world
9. Comprehensive free trade and customs agreement with the
European Union
10. Northern Ireland established as a hub for trade from Irish Republic
into the broader UK market
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10 Jun 2017 15:32

Yeah I say that after I posted it. There's just been a lot of very conflicting reports from journalists and commentators, some of whom Northern Irish
Brullnux
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10 Jun 2017 21:29

It's difficult to explain to people who don't follow Northern Irish politics (a category that includes almost everyone in Britain) just how weird the DUP are. They are a mixture of 17th Century fundamentalism, rabid bigotry and financial corruption bordering on the comic. There really is nothing like them in Western European politics. Americans familiar with the kind of Bible Belt televangelists who don't like "race mixing" and have to keep doing redemption speeches after getting caught embezzling the donations will have a much more instinctive feel for the DUP worldview than anyone in England or Wales will. Some Scots will know the type though, even though they aren't a political force in Scotland.

I'm not sure that the Tories have really thought through how much damage standing too close to the DUP could do to them. There is enough DUP baggage accumulated over the years but unknown in Britain to provide a media and social media outrage of the day every single day for the foreseeable future. Try to think of something crazy a Northern Irish politician could have done, whether it's lead an armed invasion of the Republic, get thrown out of the European Parliament for yelling "I REJECT YOU ANTICHRIST" at the Pope, call for Catholics to be ethnically cleansed or describe gay people as worse than child molestors, and a leading figure in the DUP will likely already have done it. If by some chance they haven't already done it, they can probably be persuaded to do it tomorrow.

The funniest thing about it all is just how alien the insane flag-waving Britishry and political religiosity is to people in Great Britain. Your average English person knows very marginally more about the politics of Northern Ireland than he or she knows about the politics of Gibraltar or the Falkland Islands, other outposts of triangular plastic union jacks and Princess Diana commemorative tea towels. And would be approximately as happy to find out that the craziest people in the Falklands are the new overlords of Westminster as they are to find that the government is in the power of the DUP.
Zinoviev Letter
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Re: British politics

10 Jun 2017 23:32

....gee someone is excited....a nice bookend to his Trump rant ?....

http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2017/06/john-pie-on-uk-general-election.html

Cheers
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11 Jun 2017 13:23

In Blair's defence, I would also find it hard to support someone who has said they'd put me on trial at The Hague for war crimes if they won. Not saying he doesn't deserve it.
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12 Jun 2017 21:53

May seems safe - for now. She's put her fate in the hands of the 1922 committee after apparently a good performance in front of then today. Meanwhile some Tory commentators and many tory politicians have adopted the "Crisis? What crisis?" approach. She's surprised me by staying this long, but I assume it's because even BoJo can see beyond his ambitions and ego and realise that PM right now is a poisoned chalice: whatever Brexit agreement you deliver, you will piss off an important section of your party, and voters. A Soft Brexit will lose the support of more than enough tory backbenchers, and a hard one will alienate the Scottish Tories and some other MPs as well as the DUP. May doesn't have any actual power anyway, she's at the mercy of her cabinet and backbenchers. I expect Johnson to wait at least until the Tory Conference and maximum until the Conference of 2019.

Meanwhile Labour seem to have united behind Corbyn (mostly). Like last year, the tories are in disarray. Unlike last year, the Labour party are not destroying themselves, and could provide a strong opposition and capitalise on this. Tom Watson seems keen on this.
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Re: British politics

12 Jun 2017 23:22

Seems to me like Farage, Galloway and those that spearheaded Brexit need to 'get back on the pitch' to use a football analogy. Let's see what Corbyn and Labour do now that they've got one foot inside the room.
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13 Jun 2017 19:40

Last year, the reaction of young people to the older generations' leave vote was unacceptable.

This year, the older generations' reaction to young people voting for Labour has been unacceptable and downright patronising. After some calls for a re-education program, the general response has been "the young people are misinformed" or "duped and bribed by freebies" or that they just voted because of the "bribe" of free tuition. I understand that the reaction is quite similar to last year, but it's very wrong nonetheless. No young person was bribed or duped; just because they believe in a larger state on the scale of other European states does not mean they are idiots. Yes, free tuition was nice for them, but take it away and I guarantee that young people would've voted the same way and in the same numbers anyway. That's because Corbyn looked honest and for once we saw a manifesto that wasn't focused on damaging austerity and cuts to education, or just an attempt for re-election in five years time. It was manifesto of change, and young people responded. They aren't idiots, a lot of them are students or post-graduates, and did not think that all this would come free and easy. They knew raised taxes was probably going to come as a result of this (I know Labour's manifesto promised only tax rises for the top 5% but that was quite an optimistic target - a 1p raise for the top third or top half could have also come) but were prepared to pay extra for it. It's been insulting the way some older Tories have treated them. And yes, I completely acknowledge that it goes the other way too.
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15 Jun 2017 14:00

Favourability polls 19/20 April:
May: +12%
Corbyn: -42%

Same poll by same company 11/12 June:
May: -34% (-46 change)
Corbyn: +6% (+48 change)

What a difference two months makes
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15 Jun 2017 22:47

After very contrasting visits to Grenfell Tower, those ratings are probably even farther apart.
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Re:

16 Jun 2017 06:06

Armchair cyclist wrote:After very contrasting visits to Grenfell Tower, those ratings are probably even farther apart.

i cant remember when there was such a vast difference in empathy and 'people skills' between the leaders of the 2 parties.
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16 Jun 2017 18:05

I know daily mail readers are not representative of the average tory, but they are truly heartless. A lot of their reactions has been to blame victims for being foreign and too poor to afford non-social housing - they should be 'thankful', apparently, that the state paid for their housing. The tories' approach to poor people during the election seemed to be 'it could be worse, you could be dead', but they've now adopted 'yes they're dead, but at least they weren't homeless while they were alive'.

As more revelations come out about the horrific incident, the more the council and the process of subcontracting these buildings comes under scrutiny and pressure. It was little more than a vanity project: £10m to make it prettier, and ignoring tenants' concerns about fire alarms and sprinklers. As some have said, it is a terrifying indictment of how some sections of authority view the poor. The Kensington and Chelsea Borough Council, the KCMTO, the companies, Gavin Barwell etc. are under immense pressure. The latter especially is. As housing minister, he sat on a report on council housing and never released it, and now is still refusing to answer questions about it. Clearly not great news for him. Barwell (the author of 'How to win a marginal seat'; and also as of the election, the loser of said marginal seat - a new book 'How to lose a marginal seat' is in the pipelines, or so I have heard) is immensely popular among the Conservative Party, especially among the extreme neo-liberal wing, and was recently made the Chief of Staff of May, after Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill were blamed for the election result. Theresa May might be looking for a new one again soon. What a sorry state of affairs, and what a pathetic government. This country deserves better right wing representation than that party.

https://jacobinmag.com/2017/06/grenfell-tower-fire-inequality-housing
Last edited by Brullnux on 16 Jun 2017 20:09, edited 1 time in total.
Brullnux
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16 Jun 2017 18:15

User avatar Jagartrott
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16 Jun 2017 21:44

Riots 2.0 could be on the cards here if things continue like this...
Brullnux
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Re:

17 Jun 2017 07:39

Brullnux wrote:Riots 2.0 could be on the cards here if things continue like this...

Absolutely, the previous riots were ridiculous, known criminal with gun gets shot. This could be a proper powder keg, we don't care about you and we are prepared to let you die to save a couple of quid.
Singer01
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17 Jun 2017 12:20

Is it legally possible to expel Paul Joseph Watson from the country for being an absolute idiot?
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