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15 Jan 2019 21:45

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46885828
PM Mrs May,
Shall I compare thee to ... the captain on the Titanic ... or the Hindenberg. Ouch! 432 to 202.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has now tabled a vote of no confidence in the government, which could trigger a general election.

The confidence vote is expected to be held at about 1900 GMT on Wednesday.


The circus goes on!
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User avatar Robert5091
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15 Jan 2019 22:11

May will win the confidence vote.
(Warning: Posts may contain traces of irony)
User avatar macbindle
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15 Jan 2019 23:34

Of course she will. Hardly anyone in Parliament wants Corbyn as PM, no one in the other parties wants the job and they’re all to scared a GE will be an enormous crap-shoot. It’s just a good way to waste another day...
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User avatar King Boonen
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Re:

16 Jan 2019 05:47

King Boonen wrote:Of course she will. Hardly anyone in Parliament wants Corbyn as PM, no one in the other parties wants the job and they’re all to scared a GE will be an enormous crap-shoot. It’s just a good way to waste another day...


Britan's PM - the job no one wants. Maybe some one from the Monster Raving Loony Party ("Vote For Insanity") would be appropriate? :D
Corbyn to strengthen the base and do some politcal theatre.
"Are you going to believe me or what you see with your own eyes?"

Don't mention Khashoggi! It’s a collusion witch hoax!
User avatar Robert5091
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16 Jan 2019 06:44

Seems like a pointless act. No Tory will vote against it's own government, nor will the DUP bite the hand that feeds it.

Like everything in politics currently, it will be ephemeral.
(Warning: Posts may contain traces of irony)
User avatar macbindle
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Re:

16 Jan 2019 06:56

macbindle wrote:Seems like a pointless act. No Tory will vote against it's own government, nor will the DUP bite the hand that feeds it.

Like everything in politics currently, it will be ephemeral.


If the Tories had some backbone, they'd say to the DUP either accept the referendum and a EU border or join the rest of Ireland and leave the UK.
"Are you going to believe me or what you see with your own eyes?"

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User avatar Robert5091
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16 Jan 2019 08:07

so what is next ?

that may will survive a no confidence vote seems to flow from a recent survival of the same, though, i would not bet on anything in the current mess the uk politicians are...

an extension beyond march seems the only non-option that would fit all the parties (in a pan-european sense). the eu brass are likely as confused as the british at the moment. i mean the difficulty of the 27 unified opinions about what they want next.

after all, kicking the can down the road is what the politicians are best at. another plebiscite is a theoretical possibility but i cant see the conservatives allowing it. and even if it went through and the brexit was entirely reversed, there is no way germany and france would allow a pre-2016 british perks negotiated with the eu to stand. it would be a less influential, more dependent uk where germany would increasingly tells the brits what to do...a historic nightmare for the uk.
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User avatar python
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16 Jan 2019 08:46

May's negotiated deal was pretty much the one that anyone could have predicted 2.5 years ago. But somehow, there are still plenty of Brits that think this is not enough? Amazing, the disconnect to reality.
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16 Jan 2019 08:52

I was listening to LBC on the way home from work 2 days ago and they had a labour MP on and she got asked would Corbyn make a good PM and she couldn’t answer yes...his own party don’t want him as PM, the mess the tories are in and labour can still f#ck this up
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Re: Re:

16 Jan 2019 09:26

Robert5091 wrote:
macbindle wrote:Seems like a pointless act. No Tory will vote against it's own government, nor will the DUP bite the hand that feeds it.

Like everything in politics currently, it will be ephemeral.


If the Tories had some backbone, they'd say to the DUP either accept the referendum and a EU border or join the rest of Ireland and leave the UK.


Right wing Nationalism, and in the UK its twin brother Unionism, mean it's more than just the DUP and their supporters who are against a unified Ireland (and there's plenty of Unionism on the left too). Would be party suicide to offer such an ultimatum.

python wrote:so what is next ?

that may will survive a no confidence vote seems to flow from a recent survival of the same, though, i would not bet on anything in the current mess the uk politicians are...

an extension beyond march seems the only non-option that would fit all the parties (in a pan-european sense). the eu brass are likely as confused as the british at the moment. i mean the difficulty of the 27 unified opinions about what they want next.

after all, kicking the can down the road is what the politicians are best at. another plebiscite is a theoretical possibility but i cant see the conservatives allowing it. and even if it went through and the brexit was entirely reversed, there is no way germany and france would allow a pre-2016 british perks negotiated with the eu to stand. it would be a less influential, more dependent uk where germany would increasingly tells the brits what to do...a historic nightmare for the uk.


I don't see what France and Germany could do. Cancelling Article 50 would return us to the status quo as far as I'm aware. We would no doubt see a lot of resistance from the EU to our influence to start with, but maybe it would bring around a step change in British politics and we'd stop using the EU as an easy scapegoat and actually involve ourselves more (Wishful thinking I know).

I think an extension is almost certain now, and the EU have said they will vote for it in the specific case of avoiding a no-deal while the UK sorts out what it wants. They won't extend it for more negotiation, so Labour claiming they can get a better deal is just stupid, and as such a general election just feels like another massive waste of time.

Jagartrott wrote:May's negotiated deal was pretty much the one that anyone could have predicted 2.5 years ago. But somehow, there are still plenty of Brits that think this is not enough? Amazing, the disconnect to reality.


I don't think you can blame the British people. They were promised everything under the sun from politicians and the press. Of course there were plenty of people saying that it wasn't going to happen but with two such opposing viewpoints it's hard for people to do anything other than back a horse or spend a long time looking into the facts and some of it is really hard to understand.

rick james wrote:I was listening to LBC on the way home from work 2 days ago and they had a labour MP on and she got asked would Corbyn make a good PM and she couldn’t answer yes...his own party don’t want him as PM, the mess the tories are in and labour can still f#ck this up


Corbyn is massively at odds with the majority of his party and their base now I think. I used to have more respect for him as he stood by his views but would go with the party line when there was such a difference. That's changed and as such even his own MPs don't want to back him as they know he'll end up in the same position as May and Labour will be where the Tories are now, taking the blame.
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16 Jan 2019 10:17

kingboonen, i am pretty clear on the british law regarding the article 50. but i dont know if the existing eu rules allow to automatically go to the status quo in an unlikely, but lets suppose a theoretical case the brexit was reversed. lets assume it is so.

the unmodified,' welcome back' would contradict a general tendency of the eu to extract a price for the brexit during the long and painful negotiations. not only, there is likely a fatigue (if not an irritation) with some eu countries re. 'we-are-out-we-in' and 'we-decide-when-and-if', it is likely there is a genuine concern within the eu big wigs as to reliance on a british negotiated position given the (understandable) domestic mess that the brexit caused to begin with.

beside the eu bureaucrats would want to 'teach a lesson' anyone that would even think of an exit..i just dont think given the experience i had acquired watching the euro politics, that business as before is possible.

besides, there are my own premonitions that have to do with franco-german initiatives of a more independent europe (the eu army etc) that the uk had always and vigorously objected based on it's privileged relations with america...

there is a price to pay for ANY mistake. and the brexit was not just a mistake but a blunder.
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16 Jan 2019 10:37

There was a judgement by the European court that the UK could unilaterally cancel article 50 and be back on the same terms but that is unlikely to happen.

Anyway I am not sure how the UK can get out of the current mess.

Possibly May could put the deal to a referendum, though this opens up a can of worms, what would the question be, would a rejection mean renegotiation, no deal or staying in the EU.

A general election most likely leave us just where we are today with small changes in numbers, the problem with the first past the post system means that political parties MPs are a mish mash of different viewpoints

I am not sure May can reach over to a cross house support for some kind of Brexit because of the baggage she has, could another Tory leader do this, I can't think of anyone and Corbyn i charge of Labour makes it much more difficult anyway

Perhaps if those who Labour MPs who don't like Corbyn formed a new party, (they can't change the leadership), then there may be a way forward, but I can't see this don't underestimate the psychological attachment to the Labour brand.

So we may be stuck with No deal brexit.
del1962
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Re: Re:

16 Jan 2019 10:51

King Boonen wrote:
Robert5091 wrote:
macbindle wrote:Seems like a pointless act. No Tory will vote against it's own government, nor will the DUP bite the hand that feeds it.

Like everything in politics currently, it will be ephemeral.


If the Tories had some backbone, they'd say to the DUP either accept the referendum and a EU border or join the rest of Ireland and leave the UK.


Right wing Nationalism, and in the UK its twin brother Unionism, mean it's more than just the DUP and their supporters who are against a unified Ireland (and there's plenty of Unionism on the left too). Would be party suicide to offer such an ultimatum.



The irony is Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, but this dumb a**e "backstop" idea is absurd. If a no-deal Brexit happens with the UK economy tanking, then it won't be long before there's a "leaky" border.

As the saying goes, "you've made your bed, now lie in it."
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16 Jan 2019 11:22

people should stop repeating nonsensical 'boogeymans' spun by the irresponsible politicians about the british economy doomsday etc.

the markets may stumble for few days, the stupid journos may go into their wow neurosis, but with or without a deal, hard or soft, the british economy is too big, resilient and interconnected to tank. nor anyone, including the evil russians and the chinese, seeing a perverse interest in such.

had it been a smaller less important player, sure, it would be sunk with pleasure by many. or carved and split like the british empire used to do its colonies till very recently...but no worry is necessary, the british may split into peaces
themselves....
DJPbaltimore:'John Kerry is an honorable person and would not call out the Russians if there was not evidence', 'the 2 of you are russia stooges'
in foreign policy there are no eternal friendships or eternal enemies, only eternal interests
User avatar python
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16 Jan 2019 11:48

Actually you are wrong.

There is a myriad of evidence from non-political sources within industry about the potential for disaster with a no-deal Brexit. It is not for no reason that key foreign investors in the automotive industry are already moving out. There are literally NO credible voices from within industry who are not sh1tting themselves over a no deal. Within parliament, regardless of which side of the Brexit debate, almost nobody is advocating a no deal Brexit beyond a handful of loonies. A no deal will not happen.

These are real issues and should not be talked about glibly and with no evidence. From your previous posts it is clear that you lack understanding of not only the intricacies of the issues, but also the political landscape. If you did you wouldn't be in any doubt about the outcome of today's no confidence vote. There is NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER that May will lose.
This whole issue is intractable because of the paradox of democracy, and the orthogonal relationship between a democratic parliamentary system and the plebiscite vote.

None of the key players in the EU want to see Brexit because not only is the UK a heavy contributor to the UK budget, but also because a Brexit that puts the UK in an equal or better position than the status quo would fuel the growing right-wing nationalist moments in other EU countries.
(Warning: Posts may contain traces of irony)
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16 Jan 2019 12:07

from your previous posts, it is clear you not only lack intricacies of the many political subjects discussed here and elsewhere, but also are taking your expertise too seriously and too far. 'my relative works here or there and therefore i may be informed better sn't enough here. despite attempting to look 'balanced' you're actually giving away a closet zealot when a political issue you bet on is questioned. you are also showing yourself to read too literally or lacking a skill to read context. i did not doubt the may survival, i was ironic about the mess she british politics is in.

if you want to be a tool of fearmongering politicians, please be so. ii only means you are a tool of someone who's position you took to heart.
DJPbaltimore:'John Kerry is an honorable person and would not call out the Russians if there was not evidence', 'the 2 of you are russia stooges'
in foreign policy there are no eternal friendships or eternal enemies, only eternal interests
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Re:

16 Jan 2019 12:19

python wrote:so what is next ?

that may will survive a no confidence vote seems to flow from a recent survival of the same, though, i would not bet on anything in the current mess the uk politicians are...
.


Again. you don't understand what is going on. Today's vote is a vote of no confidence in the government. It is NOT a no confidence vote in May.
(Warning: Posts may contain traces of irony)
User avatar macbindle
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Re: Re:

16 Jan 2019 12:26

macbindle wrote:
python wrote:so what is next ?

that may will survive a no confidence vote seems to flow from a recent survival of the same, though, i would not bet on anything in the current mess the uk politicians are...
.


Again. you don't understand what is going on. Today's vote is a vote of no confidence in the government. It is NOT a no confidence vote in May.
as noted above, you are showing the primitiveness of your understanding of the rather simple political issue.i did not refer to the may's resignation from the pm role. no where. but about the survival of the may govt.. a rather usual political indirect reference, when for instance, commentators refer to countries by their capitals....you are blinded by my previous exposures of your biases, and understandably cant asses a simple issue w/o some sort of emotional bias.
ps. dozens of article are loaded with 'may's defeat' etc whereas no one would doubt, except perhaps zealots like you, that the govt lead by may was meant.
DJPbaltimore:'John Kerry is an honorable person and would not call out the Russians if there was not evidence', 'the 2 of you are russia stooges'
in foreign policy there are no eternal friendships or eternal enemies, only eternal interests
User avatar python
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16 Jan 2019 13:31

Upthread you posited the possibility of May winning today's vote because she has won one before.

She hasn't 'won one before'

You may now understand the difference between the two confidence votes because I have schooled you, but you clearly didn't understand the difference when you made the post I quote above.

In the interest of conducting a discussion with integrity, it really would be better for you to own your mistakes.

"May's defeat" yesterday refers to a proposition she was putting forward. She lost because many in her own government voted against it. Nobody in her government or parliamentary party will vote against themselves today...which is why the very thing that YOU present as a possibility, is impossible.
(Warning: Posts may contain traces of irony)
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16 Jan 2019 14:37

poor guy, you only schooled everyone that a pedant like you is incapable of a wider association when reading an elementary indirect political references. passing own inadequacy in catching up, as a lack of someone's intricacy is typical of your self righteousness not dissimilar to your recent argument that you are better informed b/c you had a relative working in some capacity to know.

grossly misinterpreting a fact of no confidence vote that may had survived in december is anotether indication of either ignorance or a being hurt by a rather transparent reference to it. may did survive a no confidence vote in december, sparky. and that's just about how most paper term it.

in the context of conducting an internet discussion, it would be appropriate if use thing like 'imo', 'i disagree' or just owning up to your multiple cases of where you try to look smarter or better informed than someone. but actually winding up a joke.
Last edited by python on 16 Jan 2019 14:51, edited 1 time in total.
DJPbaltimore:'John Kerry is an honorable person and would not call out the Russians if there was not evidence', 'the 2 of you are russia stooges'
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