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02 Jan 2018 08:05

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/01/02/547526/iran-snsc-shamkhani-proxy-war
Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Shamkhani has said certain countries are waging a "proxy war" against the Islamic Republic via social media and the internet.

On Monday, Shamkhani noted that the United States, Britain and Saudi Arabia are behind the recent riots in Iran, stressing that the hashtags and social media campaigns cornering the situation in Iran are all in fact being guided by these countries.

"Based on our analyses, around 27 percent of the new hashtags against Iran are generated by the Saudi government," he added.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42539445
Nine more people have been killed overnight as clashes between protesters and security forces continue in Iran for a sixth day, state media report.

The latest violence, in the central Isfahan region, brought the number of reported deaths to at least 22.

Six protesters died in what was described as an apparent attempt to seize guns from a police station.

Elsewhere, a boy aged 11 and a man were reported killed in clashes along with a member of the Revolutionary Guards.
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User avatar Robert5091
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02 Jan 2018 08:20

One of the reasons that Iran is not a democracy is because the last time they were, the UK and US led a coup d'etat that ousted the democratically elected leader and replaced him with a dictator. It took a revolution to get rid of the dictator so it is hardly surprising that the revolutionary government is suspicious. and undoubtedly rightly so.

The world is full of proxy wars, Iran is involved in some of its own but it is also a pawn in a wider game.
(Warning: Posts may contain traces of irony)
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02 Jan 2018 08:31

http://yournewswire.com/cable-israel-saudi-holy-war-middle-east/
Leaked Cable Confirms Israel-Saudi Plan To Provoke ‘Holy War’ In Middle East

What has both Israel and the Saudis worried is the fact that the Syrian war has strengthened Hezbollah, not weakened it. And now we have smoking gun internal evidence that Israel is quietly formalizing its unusual alliance with Saudi Arabia and its power-hungry and hawkish crown prince Mohammed bin Salman.


Trump under investigation, Bibi under investigation and MbS ...
Dr. Andreas Krieg, assistant professor at Kings College London and a Middle East security analyst, slammed MBS as an “authoritarian autocrat who seems to disregard any form of consensual governance even within the family.” Krieg also criticized the Saudi crown prince’s policies. “MBS has so far failed on every front in foreign and security policy. Mostly because he lacks a strategy. He is hotheaded, paranoid and lacks any strategic patience,” he wrote in an email to The Media Line. http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Secret-ties-A-guide-to-Saudi-Crown-Prince-Mohammad-bin-Salman-514904


Hold on tight, it could be a bumpy ride.
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User avatar Robert5091
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Re:

02 Jan 2018 11:49

macbindle wrote:One of the reasons that Iran is not a democracy is because the last time they were, the UK and US led a coup d'etat that ousted the democratically elected leader and replaced him with a dictator. It took a revolution to get rid of the dictator so it is hardly surprising that the revolutionary government is suspicious. and undoubtedly rightly so.

The world is full of proxy wars, Iran is involved in some of its own but it is also a pawn in a wider game.

The structure of the Iranian government is set up in 1979 after the fall of the Shah. And you're right, it's not a democracy.

It's a Republic, just like the USA!! Even the structure is the same. First came the constitution in 1979, after a referendum where 98% of voters said Iran should be an Islamic State. Much like when the US was founded and it was debated whether it would be a Christian Nation (some still think it is). This established the three branches of government: Executive, Legislative, and Judicial.

The Legislative has a Legislative Assembly and a Paliament, each of ~300 elected members, to create and debate new laws. A third group, the Guardian Council, is tasked to make sure new laws are compliant with the constitution and Islamic principals. This is probably more efficient than waiting for laws to percolate up to the Supreme Court, but generally has the same function.

The Executive has a President that is elected and is responsible for the government and diplomatic affairs of State. The Ayatollah is the commander in chief of the armed forces and is responsible for upholding the Islamic state. This is very, very similar to the function of the Queen of England who is the head of state responsible for the Church of England and is also the commander in chief of the armed forces.

The Judicial branch is exactly what it says on the tin and is pretty much the same as anywhere else. At first the Revolutionary Courts were used as a political tool to clean up after the Shah and resulted in lots of executions. That has mainly stopped since the late 80's although the court still exists to combat treason and sedition. The incarceration rate is 280 per 100,000 versus >700 per 100,000 for the US.

The biggest departure from Western governments is the use of City and Village Councils that are elect mayors and other civil servants every 4 years. These councils then feed into larger groups that then feed into the Parliament.

So you're right! It's a representative Republic with the same structures, organs, rights and protections as Western nations!

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02 Jan 2018 12:07

Speaking of Iran... Looks like they're getting the Ukraine/Syria treatment. Small protests about the economy have suddenly and simultaneously transformed into dozens of violent protests in cities around Iran. Gunmen in the crowds. Shooting cops and civilians. All that's missing is Nuland handing out cookies!

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02 Jan 2018 13:18

Iran isn't as often portrayed in the West. Its not a theocratic dictatorship, but neither is it a true democracy. Yes, people get to vote in the president...but only for candidates approved by the Council of Guardians. Point I'm getting at is merely to put some context into the oft portrayed anti-western rhetoric emanating from Iran and, in the era of US regime change, a rationale for their pursuit of nuclear weapons.
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02 Jan 2018 21:41

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42541515
The Israeli government has issued a notice for thousands of African migrants to leave the country or face imprisonment.

The migrants will be given up to $3,500 (£2,600) for leaving within the next 90 days.

A spokesperson for Israel's Population and Immigration Authority told the BBC there were currently 38,000 "infiltrators" in Israel, of whom just 1,420 were being held in detention facilities.

Israel uses the term "infiltrators" to describe people who did not enter the country through an official border crossing.


I await Trump's similar "idea" ... :rolleyes:
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Re:

03 Jan 2018 07:25

Robert5091 wrote:https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/afp/2017/12/iran-demonstration-politics-us.html
Iran says Trump support for protests 'deceitful'


Iran said on Saturday that US President Donald Trump's support for protests in the country was "deceitful and opportunist".

"The Iranian people see no value in the opportunistic remarks by American officials and Mr Trump," foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi said on its website. He said Iranians remembered Trump's actions in barring them from entry to the United States and "the arrest of many Iranians in that country on baseless pretexts". "That's why they see the support of these officials for some rallies in recent days in some Iranian cities as opportunistic," he added. "The constitution of the Islamic republic of Iran has established democratic structures for the legal support of people's civil demands," he said.

Trump tweeted on Friday night in support of protests against Iran's economic problems that had spread to several towns and cities in Iran. "Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with regime's corruption & its squandering of the nation's wealth to fund terrorism abroad," he wrote.

"Iranian govt should respect their people's rights, including right to express themselves. The world is watching! #IranProtests."

Trump looking for excuses to not certify JCPOA and get out of it?


There you go ...https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/02/trump-iran-protests-nuclear-deal-320230
Iran protests could move Trump to kill nuclear deal
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Re: World Politics

05 Jan 2018 14:08

great, dealing with the moron, child, idiot.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/02/trump-iran-protests-nuclear-deal-320230

Wolff said he spoke with Trump for several hours while working on the book, and that he spoke to people who met with Trump on a "daily and sometimes minute-by-minute basis." People called Trump a "moron" and an "idiot," according to Wolff.


http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/michael-wolff-insiders-trump-moron-idiot-article-1.3739348
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05 Jan 2018 15:39

More from the Wolff book.

"[T]he president's views of foreign policy and the world at large were among [his White House's] most random, uninformed, and seemingly capricious aspects. His advisers didn't know whether he was an isolationist or a militarist, or whether he could distinguish between the two."


As a follow-up, I've attached a link to a series of charts indicating that the answer is definitely 'Militarist'.

https://twitter.com/alexaliautaud/status/949299878588502016
President Trump: "We are going to take a strong look at our country's libel laws ... You can't say things that are false, knowingly false, and be able to smile as money pours into your bank account."
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05 Jan 2018 19:33

The Wolff book is just part of Plan B and should be read that way. It's part of the effort to discredit Trump and make as much noise as possible to the effect that he is crazy, so that Article 25 can be invoked and have him removed from office. Plan A was Russia, which you don't hear much about any more... Plan C is a lone gunman in a book repository.

John Swanson
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05 Jan 2018 19:39

The Wolff book is part of the plan to make Wollf a lot of money.

Will Trump supporters buy it? Probably not. They can't read anyway. Trump haters will buy it to find out what they already knew because, let's face it, Donald has made little attempt to hide what he is. He has made a virtue of ignorance.
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05 Jan 2018 20:08

Pakistani minister decries U.S. as 'friend who always betrays'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pakistan-asif/pakistani-minister-decries-u-s-as-friend-who-always-betrays-idUSKBN1EU1QQ?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29

It is time for Pakistan to delink from the US,” Khan said in a statement, which called for an immediate removal of “excessive US diplomatic, non-diplomatic and intelligence personnel from Pakistan”.

Khan also called for a suspension of land and air transport routes through Pakistan that the U.S. uses to resupply NATO troops in Afghanistan,


the quote constitutes the essence of the worst retaliation the pakistanis can resort to in response to the us suspending $900 million assistance. if ever executed in anger, it will mean the virtual chocking of the us troops and the 16 year war in aphghanistan.

But. this is far from the last pain the us can still impose on pakistan. the paki army and the entire security apparatus is armed and trained exclusively by america. a long term denial of spare parts, maintenance and training will render the pakistan army useless within 2-3 months. they simply cant afford such an eventuality in the face of their troubles with india.

so, where will it go ? likely, a temporary band aide will be found. like they found a symbolic measure in the recent tit-for tat with turkey. BUT. as was going already for a long time, china will continue to displace and outfox america in the region. including re-arming them...which russia already doing.

another grand failure of the us foreign policy which will be blamed onto whoever BUT the lack of vision of the changing balance of power.

anyways, speaking with ultimatums to norkor failed, there's no smart evidence that a nuclear power like pakistan with 200 million population will be more pliable in its own hood with its own vital interests...
Last edited by python on 05 Jan 2018 20:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

05 Jan 2018 20:25

python wrote:Pakistani minister decries U.S. as 'friend who always betrays'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pakistan-asif/pakistani-minister-decries-u-s-as-friend-who-always-betrays-idUSKBN1EU1QQ?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29

It is time for Pakistan to delink from the US,” Khan said in a statement, which called for an immediate removal of “excessive US diplomatic, non-diplomatic and intelligence personnel from Pakistan”.

Khan also called for a suspension of land and air transport routes through Pakistan that the U.S. uses to resupply NATO troops in Afghanistan,


the quote constitutes the essence of the worst retaliation the pakistanis can resort to in response to the us suspending $900 million assistance. if ever executed in anger, it will mean the virtual chocking of the us troops and the 16 year war in aphghanistan.

But. this is far from the last pain the us can still impose on pakistan. the paki army and the entire security apparatus is armed and trained exclusively by america. a long term denial of spare parts, maintenance and training will render the pakistan army useless within 2-3 months. they simply cant afford such an eventuality in the face of their troubles with india.

so, where will it go ? likely, a temporary band aide will be found. like they found a symbolic measure in the recent tit-for tat with turkey. BUT. as was going already for a long time, china will continue to displace and outfox america in the region. including re-arming them...which russia already doing.

another grand failure of the us foreign policy which will be blamed onto whoever BUT the lack of vision of the changing balance of power.


See bolded. Not at all true Im afraid, somebody has misinformed you. There is a bit of US kit in there, most notably F16 fighters and some artillery, but the bulk of Pak military kit is not US. Loads of Chinese stuff and European, as well as home produced kit.
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05 Jan 2018 21:08

i was aware of their joint weapons programs with china (not the extent though). they apparently also made big strides towards domestically produced weapons. anyways, those joint programs with china aim to replace the aged french aircraft...still the backbone of their most modern air force RIGHT NOW is american-made. which does not change my point - the united states can cripple the effectiveness of one of their major branches of armed forces, IF the pissying will get out of control.

i am sure there are other assets outside of the public domain that either side can resort to in a pyssing match...my point is simply that the crude threats (effective and less so) the us can still resort to while still marginally effective are increasingly a feel good, gesture of self deception as opposed to an effective political tool.

particularly when applied to such big players like pakistan or russia.
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05 Jan 2018 21:21

Spares do not have to be bought from the US. From memory I'm pretty sure there are about 30 countries operating the F16 variants. There are loads of them about.
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05 Jan 2018 21:31

unless those operating the us-made military gear are willing to cannibalize their own weapons in order to sell some to the pakis -whch would be very stupid - it is legally and practically impossible under the modern military agreements. even when some spare parts are produced domestically. it is protected by a licenses and agreements. even the most pissed us nato ally will not do it. manufacturing a high end aircraft part, or its air-to-air missile is highly sensitive to what the original maker wants to share. a contra band like the Chinese made ak-47 is not applicable here.
DJPbaltimore:'John Kerry is an honorable person and would not call out the Russians if there was not evidence', 'the 2 of you are russia stooges'
in foreign policy there are no eternal friendships or eternal enemies, only eternal interests
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05 Jan 2018 21:42

The majority of F16 operators are non-NATO members. The F16 is old technology.
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05 Jan 2018 22:01

it appears a waste of time to try to reason with you re. the original points of my post. which, to repeat, were about a bigger picture of the us-pakistan current relation. you're confused about the operators of military gear vs. the licensed 3d parties to produce the parts for the operated gear. if one is not licensed to sell the parts, or is required to obtain a permission from the oem, they CANT in the modern environment sell. Perio. but i wont waste anymore time with you.
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05 Jan 2018 22:19

Your main point was that Pakistan is reliant on the the US. You even said that the Pakistan military is armed "exclusively" by the US.

This is just nonsense.

I cited the F16 as the only real area of difficulty for the Pakistanis, but despite what you say they HAVE been buying kit from 3rd parties, notably Jordan and Turkey. Yes. Turkey.A. NATO. Member.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1103620/turkey-to-modernise-pakistans-f-16s/


If we had been having this conversation a couple of decades ago you would have been right, but since then Pakistan has been engaged in a policy of diversification precisely to avoid a dependence on the US. They've now achieved this, hence their confident response to US threats to stop aid.

Why are the US sh1tting their pants about this? Because there is a large strategic shift taking place in central Asia. The Pakistan-US alliance was all about trying to keep the Russians out of central asia. Now Pakistan and Russia are forming close ties after decades of hostility. A couple of months ago the Pak Chief of Staff went to Moscow. Soon as he got back Mattis went to Islamabad in a panic. The truth is the US needs Pakistan more than Pakistan needs the US. Behind the scenes and out of the US news channels the war in Afghanistan is being wrapped up by the Chinese and the Russians (diplomatically, not militarily).

The sands are shifting.
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