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Re: World Politics

05 Jun 2017 12:29

python wrote:
blutto wrote:
python wrote:
blutto wrote:....don't know exactly how to take this but well worth a read....this guy pays on a bigger chess board than mine and while I see his points as valuable still not grokking all the possible permutations....may be something for python to play with , hint hint....all I know not comfortable with the big picture outcome here ( like the last such undertaking worked out so well for everyone )...

http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/06/02/jihad-2-0-the-making-of-the-next-nightmare/

Cheers

you're right, was not easy to follow pepe...if i am awake now - and i should be since i just finished my 2nd espresso - he is basically pointing at muslim albania (and the numerous albanian minorities in the balkans) fast becoming a jihad hub in the very heart of europe. the implication, though not expressed as articulately as pepe usually does, is that the west-incubated 'good muslims', like say previously in afghanistan, after getting done with those they oppose , may turn on their creators.

then, the mess in the heart of europe could be immeasurably worse...


....thanks for that...confirms my reading of the piece....so who do you think will benefit ?....sorry dumb question....so how do you think they will go about realizing that benefit ?....

....btw liked that Pepe made reference to the fact Kosovo is a major crime hub ( one that was required, according to some sources, to transport agricultural produce from Afghanistan to Europe and beyond )....so to regurgitate , uhhh, " someone " came up with an appropriate casus belli, mass graves that were WMD-like never found, and got themselves a location for the largest military base in Europe, access to significant mineral deposits and a huge coal field, and a path needed to help their poor Afghani farmer friends get their farm produce to market....win win win eh....hint, it wasn't the Russians....

Cheers
i wish i knew more about the balkans...unfortunately, i dont follow the region as closely as say the middle east or eastern europe. the limited based knowledge though still does not prevent me from fearing the trouble brewing in the balkans...and it is not only the 'good local muslims' that worry me.

there are now 6, if memory serves, six balkan countries that aspire to join the eu..it seems they are no closer to a full fledged membership than 15 years ago when the process was launched. it's hard to point one reason WHY it is taking so long. my hunch is that the eu heavyweights like germany only interested in as little as possible attention to the region aiming at keeping it war-free as opposed to prosperous and democratic...regardless, such an unfulfilled expectation and even a disappointment among many balkanians cant but lead to re-emergence and sharpening of the old ethnic and religious rivalries..that's where the the us, the well known political 'vacuum filler' comes into the picture with its own geopolitical goals which are - spreading its military via the nato as wide as possible and containing russia anywhere it still kept a finger in. perhaps containing china (and possibly turkey) is a goal too. in one word, instead of a sluggish and limited yet peace-keeping objective of the eu the americans, as ever, are out to make and look after their new friends. at the moment it is muslim albania and the numerous albanians all over the balkans..the 'bad guys' to contain are the serbians in sebia and elsewhere in the balkans.

where will it end ? i hope not but will not be surprised if a new armed conflict ensues following a stated goal of albania and kosovo to unite in one state...

the balkans are ALWAYS smoldering... :mad:


....here may be another clue ( in addition to possibly disrupting the silk road thingee mentioned by Pepe )...negotiations are apparently underway to restart work on a gas pipeline from mother Russia thru Bulgaria, Serbia and into Hungary ( and most likely beyond )....so given Merikan track record what better place to fire up Jihad 2.0 and this would definitely be a problem for any potential pipeline thru the area ( and as you pointed out the area is always smoldering so a strategic spark could easily become an instant Syrian grade inferno....NATO would have to rush in, and humanitarian like, put out the flames and secure the area....and coincidently snuff out any possibility of a pipeline ....I mean they already have that huge base in Kosovo all ready to dispense humanitarian help....

....just sayin' eh....

Cheers
Last edited by blutto on 05 Jun 2017 12:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: World Politics

05 Jun 2017 12:32

....can't quite make sense of this development....SA accusing Qatar of supporting terrorism is more than a wee bit rich so what is the real story here.....

Saudi, Egypt lead Arab states cutting Qatar ties, Iran blames Trump

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain severed their ties with Qatar on Monday, accusing it of supporting terrorism and opening up the worst rift in years among some of the most powerful states in the Arab world.

Iran -- long at odds with Saudi Arabia and a behind-the-scenes target of the move -- immediately blamed U.S. President Donald Trump for setting the stage during his recent trip to Riyadh.

Gulf Arab states and Egypt have already long resented Qatar's support for Islamists, especially the Muslim Brotherhood which they regard as a dangerous political enemy.

The coordinated move, with Yemen and Libya's eastern-based government joining in later, created a dramatic rift among the Arab nations, many of which are in OPEC.


Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gulf-qatar-idUSKBN18W0DQ
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Re:

05 Jun 2017 12:36



....compare and contrast to this from a more trustworthy source ( as opposed to something from a propaganda mouthpiece/tool like The Guardian )....

https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/06/02/jihad-2-0-the-making-of-the-next-nightmare/

Cheers
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05 Jun 2017 13:33

@blutto
yeah, that natural gas game is interesting...as you mentioned, i did read the renewed contacts re. the pipeline via bulgaria. they sometimes call it south stream 2. iirc, the south stream 1 (also via bulgaria) was essentially torpedoed by the eu not longer than 1-2 years ago. they simply blocked the bulgarian sovereign (and quite profitable) plans for the pipeline with gasprom. that's why i would not be surprised if the south stream 2 (essentially the same route) meets the same fate - even before merikah puts its tentacle in there - courtesy of the same euro politicians eager to block any russian attempts to bypass the unreliable ukraine as a delivery route to europe. curiously this pipeline game has evolved into another potential gambit - the turkish stream. or the plan to bypass ukraine by building another underwater line via the black sea into turkey with the intention to further pass it into the southern europe. that plan russia and turkey announced soon after bulgaria dumped gasprom under the eu orders. it was to spite the eu by both russia and turkey. then it was put on hold after the turks shot down the russian craft over syria. now i read recently it is FULL ON with all work permits granted by turkey and the construction full speed underway.

thus, i assume, the preliminary south stream 2 plans via bulagria may be a tactical maneuver by vlad to keep the turks soft and the eu off guard..and most curiously, and this plugs indirectly into the north stream 2. there are currently strong efforts by germany and russia (yes both on the business and govt levels) to build north stream 2. that is, an 2nd underwater line in the baltic sea directly into germany. very apparently the germans understand (and very much need) a reliable route that bypasses finicky urkraine and poland. within the eu germany is fighting poland and the baltic yeppers in support of north stream 2. that's probably why they - germany - will do all they can to shut down south stream 2 - again - via the eu directives, thus limiting russia's maneuvering space in the south. but there is nothing germany can do about the turkish straem.

again, it seems vlad has plaid his chess well.
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Re: World Politics

05 Jun 2017 13:42

blutto:
can't quite make sense of this development....SA accusing Qatar of supporting terrorism is more than a wee bit rich so what is the real story here.....



yep, that's a biggy ! i've been trying all morning to read up on the development. there is more, MUCH MORE in it than meet the eye. right now i am still confused beyond the one clear reason - it is over the iran policy difference. at least in part.
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Re: Re:

05 Jun 2017 14:56

blutto wrote:


....compare and contrast to this from a more trustworthy source ( as opposed to something from a propaganda mouthpiece/tool like The Guardian )....

https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/06/02/jihad-2-0-the-making-of-the-next-nightmare/

Cheers


I would have thought that Russia is doing quite well in the propaganda wars lately unless they are to be seen as the lily white saviors of the 21st century. I would say there is truth in both articles. NATO have to show they are still relevant and Russia continues to push into the gaps left by the USA or trying to and with what Trump has been saying recently the gaps will probably only widen in Europe. Be interesting to see how things play out with Russia in the Middle East, I don't think they will want to get too much more involved than they already are.
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05 Jun 2017 14:56

"New Leaked Emails Show How Qatar Crisis Developed In The U.S."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/leakers-share-email-dump-targeting-182226049.html
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Re:

05 Jun 2017 15:22

Beech Mtn wrote:"New Leaked Emails Show How Qatar Crisis Developed In The U.S."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/leakers-share-email-dump-targeting-182226049.html

Wow. Just reading this.

Not sure if anyone realizes this or not .... I would guess so since this is a international group of folks here. Qatar host the WC in 2022 correct? Seems the decision then and more so now was about as smart as a box of rocks.
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Re:

05 Jun 2017 17:38

Beech Mtn wrote:"New Leaked Emails Show How Qatar Crisis Developed In The U.S."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/leakers-share-email-dump-targeting-182226049.html


....the following screams volumes about neocons/neoliberals and all their camp followers.....

“Hadn’t seen this. VERY interesting,” Abrams, the former White House director for democracy, human rights and international operations, wrote. “Too bad the Qatari armed forces can’t ... well, I shouldn’t say such things. That would be undemocratic.”

Contacted by HuffPost, Abrams declined to explain what action he was hoping for from Qatar’s military. In Egypt, the military in 2013 overthrew the country’s first democratically elected government, which was dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood


....and got me thinkin' maybe its not the freedoms they hated but the $hitty military coups backed by spooks that continually overthrow any and all democratically elected governments....

Cheers
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06 Jun 2017 18:59

My guess is that Qatar is hosting the WC because even the dudes being bribed were not corrupt enough to allow SA or UAE to get it.

Anyway the dudes funding salafists are calling out Qatar for funding the Muslim Brotherhood. :rolleyes: This is just ridiculous. Hopefully Qatar is not cowered by this bullying. And if the Saudis attempt to escalate, hopefully the Pentagon will put their foot down.

As for President Trump, hopefully someone reminds him of why the US military has such a big footprint in Qatar vs the other GCC countries.
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Re:

06 Jun 2017 19:58

ToreBear wrote:My guess is that Qatar is hosting the WC because even the dudes being bribed were not corrupt enough to allow SA or UAE to get it.

Anyway the dudes funding salafists are calling out Qatar for funding the Muslim Brotherhood. :rolleyes: This is just ridiculous. Hopefully Qatar is not cowered by this bullying. And if the Saudis attempt to escalate, hopefully the Pentagon will put their foot down.

As for President Trump, hopefully someone reminds him of why the US military has such a big footprint in Qatar vs the other GCC countries.


....well hopefully....but there is a problem ....the petrodollar and what it represents and who backs it...read the Pentagon buys shiny weaponized baubles using dollars issued by a country whose debt-to-GDP ratio is getting close to that enjoyed by Greece before it got pulled down to size....the only thing holding up that rickety house of cards is that dollar is also the petrodollar....so don't think the Pentagon is going to do much....I mean they didn't carpet bomb SA after 9/11 did they ?.....they might huff and puff a bit and then go back to polishing their shiny baubles....and besides their masters in Tel Aviv probably wouldn't approve since they are such good pals with SA....

...problem for Qatar is they are land locked and apparently a lot of stuff comes in by road from SA ( including food supplies )....and there is this....

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/qatar-can-exporting-gas-and-oil-despite-saudi-lead-blockade-of-territorial-waters

....the really crazy thing is if the Saudis continue being total idiots about this it opens up the possibility ( though remote ) that Iran can move in, to not only supply material but also maybe offer some measure of protection ( and frankly if it came down to "active" protection the Saudis would last about 15mins....and btw the ruling group there is not especially liked and they have strategically placed Shia minorities in SA that have been chaffing at the collar for quite a while now...)....read this could get real ugly real fast....and the new SA leadership group are idiots....

....and then there is the 2011 Bahrain protests issue which could again become a problem....

Cheers
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06 Jun 2017 20:41

I sort of felt this was a Saudi reaction to the ever louder calls that they were funding ISIS (sorry, that's meant to say proof). Saudis have more clout in the gulf states than Qatar, and they (both of them) were the main culprits being reported in all this. Qatar is a small state with few big allies and aren't big players in oil sales, only natural gas; they are easy to scapegoat and throw under the bus for all of this and they know/hope that the attention will be diverted away from SA to tiny Qatar. SA can go on selling oil, making arms deals, being bffs with Uk and us and criticism of Gulf states is alleviated for a bit re extremist funding. Other gulf states probably happy with Qatar rather than Saudis being the centre of attention, either that or Saudis made them an offer they couldn't refuse...
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Re: World Politics

06 Jun 2017 20:48

....and there is the Yemen crisis....

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/03/31/the-geopolitics-behind-the-war-in-yemen-ii.html

....I think that this SA response is a function of being a scared wee bunny that suddenly realizes their position is not as strong as the advertising tells them it is...yes they have some very strong allies but they also have lots of fires around reminding them how really weak they are....read they are stupidly lashing out....

Cheers
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Re:

06 Jun 2017 21:56

Brullnux wrote:I sort of felt this was a Saudi reaction to the ever louder calls that they were funding ISIS (sorry, that's meant to say proof). Saudis have more clout in the gulf states than Qatar, and they (both of them) were the main culprits being reported in all this. Qatar is a small state with few big allies and aren't big players in oil sales, only natural gas; they are easy to scapegoat and throw under the bus for all of this and they know/hope that the attention will be diverted away from SA to tiny Qatar. SA can go on selling oil, making arms deals, being bffs with Uk and us and criticism of Gulf states is alleviated for a bit re extremist funding. Other gulf states probably happy with Qatar rather than Saudis being the centre of attention, either that or Saudis made them an offer they couldn't refuse...


It's also about Al-Jazera reporting things that SA and UAE would prefer remain unreported. Also Qatar is the most "western/modern/progressive" whatever you call it. So It might be a way to reduce the pressure on themselves to "modernize".

And of course Iran. Qatar doesn't treat them like they are evil personified.

As for terror financing. It's hard to know. Qatar is willing to assist Hamas for example, so then you have the Israelis screaming about how evil they are. And when Israel screams, it looks like the Saudis obey, since Hamas is kind of affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood who the Saudis hate.
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06 Jun 2017 22:17

The wikileaks files seem to show Clinton aides claiming that Qatar and Saudi Arabia are funding Isis. And then there's the report into terrorism's funding from the uk, the publication of which has been suppressed for "security" reasons (i.e Saudis probably implicated).
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Re: Re:

06 Jun 2017 23:13

ToreBear wrote:
Brullnux wrote:I sort of felt this was a Saudi reaction to the ever louder calls that they were funding ISIS (sorry, that's meant to say proof). Saudis have more clout in the gulf states than Qatar, and they (both of them) were the main culprits being reported in all this. Qatar is a small state with few big allies and aren't big players in oil sales, only natural gas; they are easy to scapegoat and throw under the bus for all of this and they know/hope that the attention will be diverted away from SA to tiny Qatar. SA can go on selling oil, making arms deals, being bffs with Uk and us and criticism of Gulf states is alleviated for a bit re extremist funding. Other gulf states probably happy with Qatar rather than Saudis being the centre of attention, either that or Saudis made them an offer they couldn't refuse...


It's also about Al-Jazera reporting things that SA and UAE would prefer remain unreported. Also Qatar is the most "western/modern/progressive" whatever you call it. So It might be a way to reduce the pressure on themselves to "modernize".

And of course Iran. Qatar doesn't treat them like they are evil personified.

As for terror financing. It's hard to know. Qatar is willing to assist Hamas for example, so then you have the Israelis screaming about how evil they are. And when Israel screams, it looks like the Saudis obey, since Hamas is kind of affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood who the Saudis hate.


....ok this may look like a bit of a stretch but bear with me....there is the timing of the sudden rise this issue that is, uhhh, odd.....

The emails show how little Trump did prior to the election to win global confidence, and cast doubt on the president’s ability to be a mediator in the current tensions between vital U.S. partners. Henri Barkey, a former State Department official who now works at the Woodrow Wilson International Center think tank, told HuffPost in a Monday email that the entire UAE-Qatar tussle shows the president still has much progress to make in his stated aim of uniting the global Muslim community around his goals. “Coming after Trump’s much touted trip to the region it demonstrates how superficial his achievements were,” Barkey said in an email.


http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/47195.htm

....one could see the timing as a nice pivot upon which to hang some more anti-Trump theatre....yet, this has been on slow burn for a long while now.....so why blow it up now ?.....theatre ?....

Saudi Arabia and Qatar have had a love-hate relationship for over two decades


The immediate cause of the diplomatic break can be traced back to the 2011 Arab Spring. Unlike Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which quickly opposed any revolutionary movements that threatened established Arab autocracies, Qatar decided to bet on the revolutionaries and used some of its vast fossil-fuel wealth to support them. In particular, Sheikh Hamad decided to throw its weight behind Muslim Brotherhood movements in Egypt, Libya, and elsewhere, building off of his long-standing support for Brotherhood branches around the Arab world, including Hamas. This represented a radical shift from Hamad’s previous “no problems” foreign policy, which presumably reflected Hamad’s desire to increase Qatar’s prominence on the geopolitical stage commensurate with its financial clout. Under Hamad, and then Tamim, Qatar has adopted a number of foreign policies that have at times, placed it at odds with its fellow Gulf states:


Additionally, it’s hard to avoid connecting Monday’s events with revelations over the weekend about the hacking of Yousef al-Otaiba’s personal email. Emails leaked to The Intercept and Huffington Post show that Otaiba, the UAE ambassador to the U.S., who was once profiled by Huffington for his “extraordinary influence” in Washington, has been lobbying the Trump administration to break America’s long-standing alliance with Qatar. From Huffington’s report on the leak:


....and yes, the Al Jazeera issue...

There’s one other elephant in this room, which is Qatar’s support of the Al Jazeera network. The Saudis and Emiratis in particular have long criticized the news channel for promoting Muslim Brotherhood voices and for criticizing the policies of other Gulf states. After announcing the diplomatic cut off on Monday, Riyadh shut down Al Jazeera’s local offices
.

http://lobelog.com/whats-happening-in-the-persian-gulf/

Cheers
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07 Jun 2017 07:36

It was the Russians apparently.

This is getting ridiculous.
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07 Jun 2017 08:58

@Blutto

Yep it's complex. I think the Saudis felt Trump wouldn't mind them taking action. Trump was probably just happy with his $110 billion arms deal. Which was actually more like a few billion of actual purchases(The Saudis need more bombs to kill Yemenis). The rest was likely possible interest, or opening up to possible competition or, well letters of intent or things that had been under discussion for the last few years.

Trump is only about image. Give him a pr boost he can use at home and you can have, well whatever.

@Brullnux
I'm not sure about the details of the leaks, but from what I have heard in the media, the info leaked doesn't sound much different than longstanding Qatari policies and opinions.

If the Russians did anything it was more like throwing a lit match on a bonfire already doused with gasoline. But with all the Russians have done it could be some diplomats are trying to rescue the situation by putting this too on the Russians. In a way telling the Saudis they are doing what the Russians want them to do.
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07 Jun 2017 09:55

...have done a fair amount of
reading and following the diverse sourses and still cant say i fully understand the whys of the latest saudi wrath :confused:
The trump public reaction seems to lean towards the saud but there is just way too much untold to take it seriously or conclusively. The russians are also carefull though they seem to loud the qatar independence.

One of the keys to to crisis understanding is the reaction of turkey...they seem the ONLY regional power throwing a rather strong support for qatar. The moslem brotherhood ideology is an apparent link plus the similrity of their policies in syria and toward iran. The jordanian half wrath is also interesting which i would interpret from the absoltist saud hill as a snub. Particularly given that saying anything positive about qatar as of this morn became a crime in the emirates worthy a 15 y prison...
----
Added: just came across this german fm interview which adds a lot to the understanding of the crisis. In no uncertain words and somewhat away from the typical german softness, he blasts the us and trump wrt to the qatar crisis.
https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/german-foreign-minister-voices-support-for-qatar-bashes-trump-777208

It is looking more and more that the fish line may lead to washington...the clumsy and tired references to the russian hacking may indicate the cia attempts at a rather transparent and fashionable deflection..
Last edited by python on 07 Jun 2017 11:15, edited 1 time in total.
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