ingsve wrote:So let's talk about what strategy people had when picking riders for this competition.
I started off deciding that Horner was probably going to find some sort of team and that there is no way he could get as many points as last year so an obvious pick if apart from the gamble of him not having a team yet.
After that I decided that my strategy was not going to really be to find riders that are actually in decline since that is a hard thing to determine. Instead I focused on riders that had most of their points in 2013 coming from a single race or during a single stage race. The idea is that overall these riders aren't as good as their points suggest so if they ride in 2014 like they did in 99% of races in 2013 then they are certain to be good picks. Then again they could very well have a better year so it's always a gamble.
I took a hybrid strategy. Some were 'riders who are still okay but kind of on the downside' who were with teams that had emerging riders that would take over (or moved to teams with lots of good riders) like Fedrigo, Nocentini, Lancaster (Arroyo would count; he'll lose leadership chances by the fact that Lulu is there). Others were riders I thought were getting worse but maybe not, but moved to teams that were super stacked and their role was changing. Think Scarponi, Nieve there. And other riders, I picked because of the 'most points from one win' thing - definitely Txurruka and Metlushenko, I'd say Weening to an extent too.
Didn't pick Horner - if he doesn't get a team he's not getting race days, if he does get a team (and I'm leaning towards Lampre) he rides the Giro/Vuelta and probably picks up a handy amount of points. Of course if he signed for Christina Watches and rode like the tour of Slovenia, he'll just get nothing. But I thought it was more realistic he gets a top-level ride.