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The CQ "Career in Decline" game 2014

Come in and talk about betting, computer games and cycling simulations, and your office's or online fantasy cycling leagues.

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23 Jan 2014 12:05

Armchair cyclist wrote:Timing of Horner team submissions was very interesting. Early teams lacked him, then when Caja Rural and subsequently Lampre were reported as virtually fact (ah, he will get at least 20 race days) there was a time when every team sent in featured him; then as the continuing uncertainty clouded the waters, the last minute teams were mainly Hornerless.


I still think he will race somewhere, I am beginning to regret picking Cuddles though
del1962
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23 Jan 2014 12:14

Armchair cyclist wrote:Very interesting submissions, especially in the ways people tried to use up places in the squad cheaply. I rejected some long retired riders, but some who scarcely rode in 2013 and have retired for 2014 were included, while others really deeply investigated the deepest ranks of obscurity to find riders that are not even household names in their own households, so that even if they might score higher this year than last, it will not be by more than a small handful of points.

There are some very high scorers in there as well, and some who have been tipped on the main game as riders who will make a profit this year.


I made it a point that any rider cheap rider had a team for 2014, obvioulsy more expensiver riders would normally have to have a team, an exception was made for Horner:D
del1962
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23 Jan 2014 15:24

18-Valve. (pithy) wrote:Vincenzo's kid brother might actually do okay points-wise, (as well as many of my other riders :o ) but Armchair made me replace RIIS Bjarne as his "rider" status is apparently in question, so I figured what the hell.


Yeah, I wanted to put Coppi and Anquetil and Armstrong as my last 3 riders, but Armchair understandably said no.
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23 Jan 2014 15:30

ingsve wrote:So let's talk about what strategy people had when picking riders for this competition.

I started off deciding that Horner was probably going to find some sort of team and that there is no way he could get as many points as last year so an obvious pick if apart from the gamble of him not having a team yet.

After that I decided that my strategy was not going to really be to find riders that are actually in decline since that is a hard thing to determine. Instead I focused on riders that had most of their points in 2013 coming from a single race or during a single stage race. The idea is that overall these riders aren't as good as their points suggest so if they ride in 2014 like they did in 99% of races in 2013 then they are certain to be good picks. Then again they could very well have a better year so it's always a gamble.


I took a hybrid strategy. Some were 'riders who are still okay but kind of on the downside' who were with teams that had emerging riders that would take over (or moved to teams with lots of good riders) like Fedrigo, Nocentini, Lancaster (Arroyo would count; he'll lose leadership chances by the fact that Lulu is there). Others were riders I thought were getting worse but maybe not, but moved to teams that were super stacked and their role was changing. Think Scarponi, Nieve there. And other riders, I picked because of the 'most points from one win' thing - definitely Txurruka and Metlushenko, I'd say Weening to an extent too.

Didn't pick Horner - if he doesn't get a team he's not getting race days, if he does get a team (and I'm leaning towards Lampre) he rides the Giro/Vuelta and probably picks up a handy amount of points. Of course if he signed for Christina Watches and rode like the tour of Slovenia, he'll just get nothing. But I thought it was more realistic he gets a top-level ride.
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23 Jan 2014 16:53

Was unfortunately too busy in the last few days and couldn't submit a team.

I thought Coquard and Yannick Martinez would be fairly popular but glancing at the teams, it seems they aren't .

Rebellin is the obvious choice and Rui Costa isn't a bad choice either, especially if the Rainbow jersey curse lives on.
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23 Jan 2014 17:10

I wanted to pick Costa, but in the end I found him too expensive.
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24 Jan 2014 02:26

Well...happy to see none of the guys I picked for my main team made it onto anybody's team for this game. I must have done something right! :p

Some pretty interesting picks, looks like others definitely took a more strategic approach then I did. Can't believe I forgot about the curse of the rainbow jersey. Image I didn't even have Rui on my list. :o

I mostly looked for people that would have to be domestiques for others this year, guys that were at the twilight of their career, guys that got most points in lower level races and would be racing at a higher level this year, and a few riders that I don't like much (giving me a reason to cheer against them ;)).
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24 Jan 2014 16:47

Missed Kankovsky (did a quick entry) who is my one regret.

But Jrod is a unique pick (surprisingy) and will be the key to success for me.
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25 Jan 2014 13:29

Off to a bad start with Impey in my team :(
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25 Jan 2014 18:11

Ruudz0r wrote:Off to a bad start with Impey in my team :(


What was your rationale with Impey? I can see how you might think the TDF jersey stint was worth a few points and the Pais Vasco win would probably go to someone like Matthews or Goss if they're in form this year, but I'm curious if there was more to it than that.
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25 Jan 2014 19:25

LOL Arredondo what a fail pick :o
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26 Jan 2014 20:37

Two late teams added (Mellow Velo and MC Mountain), simple version of my spreadsheet here.

You'll notice one team listed but out of the ranking columns: Ben is still 10% over budget although I drew his attention to it ages ago.

Scores currently displayed are for popularity of selections.
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26 Jan 2014 22:17

skidmark wrote:What was your rationale with Impey? I can see how you might think the TDF jersey stint was worth a few points and the Pais Vasco win would probably go to someone like Matthews or Goss if they're in form this year, but I'm curious if there was more to it than that.


Well Gerrans is a better version of him (bit faster, bit better on the hills, bit more endurance, Only Impey is a bit better on the longer clibms, but also not good enough to score a lot). And there are quite a few fast man at Orica, so didnt think he would be riding to much for himself.

He got 5th in the Eneco last year which gained him a lot of poitns if you take that out + the yellow jersey that he got as a gift then it could be a lot of profit for this game.

But he was riding pretty damn awesome in TDU even though he was a domestic. But I like the guy so it's not the end of the world ;)!
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28 Jan 2014 07:27

Do we have a spreadsheet of sorts for this game and some way of tracking who's in the lead?
ingsve: Winner of the 2011 CQ Ranking Manager Game.

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28 Jan 2014 08:29

ingsve wrote:Do we have a spreadsheet of sorts for this game and some way of tracking who's in the lead?


I would have thought it would be quite difficult until most riders have ridden 20 days though
del1962
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28 Jan 2014 12:15

ingsve wrote:Do we have a spreadsheet of sorts for this game and some way of tracking who's in the lead?


well there's the link in AC's last post - I think efforts were made to have a similar spreadsheet to Hugo's but it proved too temperamental/fragile. Its not immediately obvious to me how to update AC's - perhaps he can give a quick tutorial for anyone that wants to keep ahead of his ~monthly updates.
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28 Jan 2014 18:17

Set column B to be equal to whatever score you want to take the total of. I originally thought I'd manually fill the riders' scores each month in column D (earnings is probably not the clearest of headers, it is 2014 points), and I can't see any way around having to do that for column F (Days raced): at least once that reaches 20 it does not need further checking. Given how many different riders have been selected, I will probably try to work out the VLOOKUP codes and download CQs updates. Column G is the result of the calculation that gets you points: points lost in the year, reduced proportionately if there are fewer than 20 days raced. That is the one to duplicate into column B once D and F are populated.
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30 Jan 2014 09:33

Ah, I totally missed that spreadsheet.

I think that for the purpose of doing regular updates to who is leading etc we should just forget the 20 day requirement. It's more intersting to see what someone's actual score is rather than a score that assumes the rider won't reach 20 races in the year. Alternatively we could have two rankings, one that assumes that everyone will reach 20 race days and one that takes into account whether 20 days are reached yet or not.
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30 Jan 2014 21:23

ingsve wrote:Ah, I totally missed that spreadsheet.

I think that for the purpose of doing regular updates to who is leading etc we should just forget the 20 day requirement. It's more intersting to see what someone's actual score is rather than a score that assumes the rider won't reach 20 races in the year. Alternatively we could have two rankings, one that assumes that everyone will reach 20 race days and one that takes into account whether 20 days are reached yet or not.


I'll probably do that until mid-season, and this month (I have the closing of the emerging riders and the early Spring Classics entries to process) I'll probably just post the unwanted points earned.
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31 Jan 2014 01:57

All these deadlines of cycling games at the same time of the year. Don't you guys have jobs? I guess you do it at your job...hehehe. Too late to enter, I guess?
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