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2015 Vuelta CQ game

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Re: 2015 Vuelta CQ game

29 Aug 2015 22:26

I really don't want to watch the results anymore, but I am 99.9% sure I am last. But to be honest if two riders I choose don't participate and the most expensive rider abandons, that shouldnt be very surprising :( (and its also the first time I participate so I really didn't know which riders are good for a game like this)
User avatar Gigs_98
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29 Aug 2015 22:33

Oh hey, back where I belong. Biggest loser on the day and dead last overall.
User avatar BigMac
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30 Aug 2015 19:50

Stage 9
An increasingly unpredictable race, and a few favourites who stretched the budget to the limit, make this an edition of the CQ series which has many scorers that are doing nothing for any, or best very few, of our participants. The popular picks, one again, gain only the minor points.
DUMOULIN Tom 88 0 team
FROOME Chris 40 0 team
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim 25 0 team
ARU Fabio 15 3 teams
MAJKA Rafal 10 29 teams
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 7 12 teams
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 5 0 team
ROCHE Nicolas 3 0 team
POZZOVIVO Domenico 2 23 teams
MEINTJES Louis 1 1 teams

1 Mellow_Velo 27 (Aru, Majka and Pozzovivo)
2 Kabete 25 (Aru & Majka)
3 Semir 19 (Majka, Quintana, Pozzovivo)
4= 7 teams with Qunitana and Majka 17
11 18Valve 15 (Aru)
12= Thirteen teams with Majka and Pozzovivo 12
25 Comodoro 11(Majka and Meintjes)
26= Rest of the Majka teams 10
31= Two teams with Quintana and Pozzovivo 9
33= two remaining Quintana teams 7
35= the rest of the Pozzovivo squads 2
41 Trudgin 0
Collective_Wisdom 12

Projected points
Chaves is finally toppled from the lead, but those overtaking him, Dumoulin and Rodriguez, have no teams taking advantage of the fact.
MAJKA Rafal 50 29 teams
ARU Fabio 41 3 teams
MEINTJES Louis 17 1 team
DE CLERCQ Bart 16 1 team
'''
VILELA Ricardo Augusto Afonso -10 1 team
POZZOVIVO Domenico -13 23 teams
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel -15 1 team
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander -15 12 teams
STUYVEN Jasper -18 1 team
SAGAN Peter -40 1 team
LANDA MEANA Mikel -58 8 teams
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel -61 3 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban -187 5 teams

The teams that have Chaves were the biggest scorers: they are the highest fallers (especially when, as for Midge, Chaves is teamed with Dani Moreno):
1 Kabete 95
2 Mellow_Velo 79
3 Postmanhat 76
4 Comodoro 69
5 JosephD 59
6 Hakkie2 50
7 Tuart 45
8 Murrjt 44
9 Minessa 43
10 Vladimir 42
11 Joelsim 41
12 GeraintTooFast 40
13 Leadbelly 39
13 Rote_Laterne 39
15 TomJelte 38
16 Hugo87 37
16 Karaev 37
18 NairoQ 34
19 MKind1 30
20 Semir 7
21 BigMac -7
22 Gigs_98 -12
23 DJW -13
23 Josedin -13
25 18Valve -14
26 Del1962 -19
27 Search -20
28 LightBing -21
29 LosBrolin -24
30 Armchair_Cyclist -25
31 Trudgin -31
32 JustSomeGuy -33
33 The_Sceptic -34
34 Shalgo -65
35 Crevaison -75
36 Scrooll07 -84
37 Blues_in_the_Bottle -136
38 AmisVelo -145
39 Barmaher -156
40 asdfgh101 -189
41 Midge -257
Collective_Wisdom 42


Current standings
For all that they have had a bad day, Chaves remains the highest chosen rider on GC, and the best accumulator of guaranteed points, so the top five remain the Chavistas, albeit with a much reduced margin. Midge slips to 3rd, Mellow Velo moves into position as the top team awaiting further dropping of Chaves' position, and Kabete is a new entry in the top ten.

1 AmisVelo 1190
2 Barmaher 1158
3 Midge 1097
4 asdfgh101 1024
5 Blues_in_the_Bottle 951
6 Mellow_Velo 762
7 LightBing 724
8 Kabete 694
9 Semir 684
10 Tuart 677
11 Search 673
12 NairoQ 636
13 GeraintTooFast 600
14 Hakkie2 574
15 MKind1 543
16 Vladimir 529
17 Joelsim 528
18 TomJelte 517
19 Hugo87 503
20 Murrjt 495
21 Scrooll07 491
22 Rote_Laterne 486
23 Armchair_Cyclist 484
23 Minessa 484
25 LosBrolin 476
26 Leadbelly 475
27 Postmanhat 474
28 Comodoro 472
29 Karaev 465
30 18Valve 459
31 JustSomeGuy 458
32 Del1962 451
33 The_Sceptic 438
34 Shalgo 410
35 Gigs_98 400
36 Crevaison 393
37 JosephD 385
38 Josedin 369
39 DJW 358
40 Trudgin 341
41 BigMac 307
Collective_Wisdom 486

And thank you to whoever sorted out the results section in the CN reports: makes my task a lot easier.

Later edit: Just read that times have been altered, with the net effect of Aru overtaking Valverde in GC, and therefore having 25 extra projected points. That's 25 points for Mellow Velo, Kabete and 18 Valve that will appear in tomorrow's reckoning.
Last edited by Armchair cyclist on 30 Aug 2015 22:05, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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Re:

30 Aug 2015 21:01

Armchair cyclist wrote:Stage 9
Current standings
For all that they have had a bad day, Chaves remains the highest chosen rider on GC, and the best accumulator of guaranteed points, so the top five remain the Chavistas, albeit with a much reduced margin. Midge slips to 3rd, Mellow Velo moves into position as the top team awaiting further dropping of Chaves' position, and Kabete is a new entry in the top ten.

1 AmisVelo 1190
2 Barmaher 1158
3 Midge 1097
4 asdfgh101 1024
5 Blues_in_the_Bottle 951
6 Mellow_Velo 762
7 LightBing 724
8 Kabete 694
9 Semir 684
10 Tuart 677
11 Search 673
12 NairoQ 636
13 GeraintTooFast 600
14 Hakkie2 574
15 MKind1 543
16 Vladimir 529
17 Joelsim 528
18 TomJelte 517
19 Hugo87 503
20 Murrjt 495
21 Scrooll07 491
22 Rote_Laterne 486
23 Armchair_Cyclist 484
23 Minessa 484
25 LosBrolin 476
26 Leadbelly 475
27 Postmanhat 474
28 Comodoro 472
29 Karaev 465
30 18Valve 459
31 JustSomeGuy 458
32 Del1962 451
33 The_Sceptic 438
34 Shalgo 410
35 Gigs_98 400
36 Crevaison 393
37 JosephD 385
38 Josedin 369
39 DJW 358
40 Trudgin 341
41 BigMac 307
Collective_Wisdom 486

And thank you to whoever sorted out the results section in the CN reports: makes my task a lot easier.


I am collective wisdom ;)
Second time Nibali was a bad pick for me. Also Rolland and Schleck out of GC after the first week (well, after the first days). If this ranking is the final I will be happy.
User avatar rote_laterne
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Re: 2015 Vuelta CQ game

30 Aug 2015 22:47

@Armchair_Cyclist

Valverdes finishing time on todays stage has been corrected, they added 8 seconds to his time (rightfully).
Because of that Aru is now in front of him in the GC.
SemirS
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01 Sep 2015 09:01

Stage 10
The calm before the Andorran storm.

I'm sure there has never been a day's racing that had less impact on the scores than this in the CQ GC games I have run. Only Rojas among the top ten had any picks, and the red jersey wearer has no teams.
So 25 points each for Blues in the Bottle, Josedin, MellowVelo and Murrjt, and that's it. The top of the Guaranteed points is now:
1 Midge 333
2 Blues_in_the_Bottle 319
3 AmisVelo 303
4 asdfgh101 297
5 Barmaher 289
6 Trudgin 150
7 Mellow_Velo 146
8 The_Sceptic 94
9 Gigs_98 87
10 Murrjt 85
11 Josedin 76
12 Search 73



Projected points
Again, very little action here. I've gone down to changes of 5 points or more to try to make it look like there was something happening. Even at this, one of the main changes is Aru's 25 points due to a time adjustment the previous day that I hadn't included on Sunday evening's update.

ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 25 4 teams
ARU Fabio 23 3 teams
MONFORT Maxime 7 2 teams
BRAMBILLA Gianluca 6 1 team
DE CLERCQ Bart 6 1 team
ROSA Diego 6 1 team
VISCONTI Giovanni 6 3 teams

...
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben -5 2 teams
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos -11 6 teams
LANDA MEANA Mikel -16 8 teams
ZOIDL Riccardo -16 3 teams
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis -44 4 teams


Changes on the day:
1 Mellow_Velo 49
2 Blues_in_the_Bottle 27
3 Murrjt 25
4 Josedin 24
5 GeraintTooFast 20
6 Kabete 19
7 Trudgin 16
8 Minessa 10
9 18Valve 9
9 Joelsim 9
9 Midge 9
9 Search 9
13 Leadbelly 6
13 Rote_Laterne 6
15 Comodoro 5
15 The_Sceptic 5
15 Tuart 5
18 AmisVelo 1
18 DJW 1
18 Vladimir 1
21 Armchair_Cyclist -1
21 Hugo87 -1
23 Karaev -2
23 TomJelte -2
25 JustSomeGuy -3
26 asdfgh101 -5
26 Shalgo -5
28 Barmaher -6
29 Scrooll07 -8
30 Gigs_98 -12
31 Del1962 -14
31 LosBrolin -14
31 MKind1 -14
34 Semir -15
35 BigMac -19
36 Crevaison -20
37 NairoQ -26
38 Postmanhat -33
39 Hakkie2 -41
40 JosephD -44
41 LightBing -51
Collective_Wisdom 4

Rest Day standings:
Search moves into the top ten, but otherwise little change
1 AmisVelo 1191
2 Barmaher 1152
3 Midge 1106
4 asdfgh101 1019
5 Blues_in_the_Bottle 978
6 Mellow_Velo 811
7 Kabete 713
8 Search 682
8 Tuart 682
10 LightBing 673
11 Semir 669
12 GeraintTooFast 620
13 NairoQ 610
14 Joelsim 537
15 Hakkie2 533
16 Vladimir 530
17 MKind1 529
18 Murrjt 520
19 TomJelte 515
20 Hugo87 502
21 Minessa 494
22 Rote_Laterne 492
23 Armchair_Cyclist 483
23 Scrooll07 483
25 Leadbelly 481
26 Comodoro 477
27 18Valve 468
28 Karaev 463
29 LosBrolin 462
30 JustSomeGuy 455
31 The_Sceptic 443
32 Postmanhat 441
33 Del1962 437
34 Shalgo 405
35 Josedin 393
36 Gigs_98 388
37 Crevaison 373
38 DJW 359
39 Trudgin 357
40 JosephD 341
41 BigMac 288
Collective_Wisdom 490
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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01 Sep 2015 11:26

Rest Day
So you can see above how the teams we have selected are doing: what scores are the riders accumulating?
Guaranteed points
Clearly, those who have racked up the points were either too expensive for nearly all of us, or not not fancied by many of us.
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 256 5 teams
DUMOULIN Tom 189 0 team
SAGAN Peter 135 1 team
DEGENKOLB John 105 0 team
SBARAGLI Kristian 94 0 team
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 93 0 team
STUYVEN Jasper 73 1 team
EWAN Caleb 70 0 team
LINDEMAN Bert-Jan 70 0 team
MARTIN Daniel 55 0 team
FROOME Chris 50 0 team
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim 49 0 team
ROCHE Nicolas 46 0 team
ARU Fabio 41 3 teams
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello 40 0 team
BOUHANNI Nacer 40 2 teams
KOSHEVOY Ilia 40 1 team
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 37 4 teams
DRUCKER Jempy 30 1 team
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel 30 3 teams
MAJKA Rafal 26 29 teams
REZA Kévin 25 2 teams
VAN DER SANDE Tosh 24 0 team
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 21 12 teams
GONÇALVES Jose Isidro Maciel 20 0 team


Guaranteed points as a %age of price:
There has been some decent value for 'money' missed by all, or all but one of us, in several instances,

CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 69.8%
LINDEMAN Bert-Jan 68.6%
STUYVEN Jasper 40.6%
KOSHEVOY Ilia 33.9%
COUSIN Jérôme 27.3%
REZA Kévin 21.0%
SBARAGLI Kristian 20.9%
ROCHE Nicolas 18.7%
DUMOULIN Tom 16.7%
VAN DER SANDE Tosh 15.9%
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello 13.2%
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 13.0%
RICHEZE ARAQUISTAIN Ariel Maximiliano 12.3%
DOCKER Mitchell 11.1%
EWAN Caleb 9.7%
GONÇALVES Jose Isidro Maciel 8.9%
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben 7.9%
SAGAN Peter 7.6%
DEGENKOLB John 5.4%
DRUCKER Jempy 5.1%

Projected Points
Make up your own minds about who will rise or fall, and how far, in this table, but this is how it stands before they undertake the Volta a Andorra.
DUMOULIN Tom 754 0 team
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 646 5 teams
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim 429 0 team
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 348 0 team
ROCHE Nicolas 321 0 team
ARU Fabio 285 3 teams
FROOME Chris 220 0 team
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 213 12 teams
MAJKA Rafal 176 29 teams
POZZOVIVO Domenico 142 23 teams
SAGAN Peter 135 1 team
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel 134 3 teams
DEGENKOLB John 127 0 team
SBARAGLI Kristian 124 0 team
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 120 1 team
MEINTJES Louis 115 1 team
LINDEMAN Bert-Jan 110 0 team
BRAMBILLA Gianluca 96 1 team
SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel 90 0 team
FRAILE MATARRANZ Omar 85 2 teams
DE CLERCQ Bart 84 1 team
CARDOSO Andre Fernando Santos Martins 78 2 teams
SICARD Romain 74 0 team
STUYVEN Jasper 73 1 team
EWAN Caleb 70 0 team
NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel 70 10 teams
GONÇALVES Jose Isidro Maciel 68 0 team
JEANDESBOZ Fabrice 66 0 team
KOSHEVOY Ilia 62 1 team
ROSSETTO Stéphane 62 0 team
ELISSONDE Kenny 61 21 teams
ARROYO DURAN David 58 7 teams
VAN DER SANDE Tosh 56 0 team
ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar 56 3 teams
BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello 55 0 team
MARTIN Daniel 55 0 team
BOUET Maxime 54 0 team
VISCONTI Giovanni 53 3 teams
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis 52 4 teams
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 52 4 teams
BENNETT George 50 0 team

And by percentage, we see the bargains (also some of these have so few points, they would not greatly benefit a team)
JIM Songezo 300.0 2 teams
PELLAUD Simon 187.5 2 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 176.0 5 teams
ROCHE Nicolas 130.5 0 team
LINDEMAN Bert-Jan 107.8 0 team
ELISSONDE Kenny 100.0 21 teams
FISCHER Murilo Antonio 100.0 2 teams
ROLLIN Dominique 100.0 3 teams
BRAMBILLA Gianluca 72.2 1 team
CATTANEO Mattia 68.2 1 team
DUMOULIN Tom 66.5 0 team
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos 62.8 6 teams
HUPOND Thierry 60.0 0 team
KADRI Blel 60.0 17 teams
VANOTTI Alessandro 60.0 2 teams
COUSIN Jérôme 54.5 0 team
VAN WINDEN Dennis 53.6 0 team
KOSHEVOY Ilia 52.5 1 team
RAMIREZ CHACON Brayan Stiven 51.7 0 team
VALENCIA GONZALEZ Juan Pablo 51.7 0 team
ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar 50.5 3 teams
AREGGER Marcel 50.0 0 team
STAMSNIJDER Tom 50.0 0 team
VENTER Jaco 48.4 0 team
BOUET Maxime 48.2 0 team
DOCKER Mitchell 44.4 0 team
STUYVEN Jasper 40.6 1 team
VELITS Martin 40.5 0 team



And where there are bargains, there are also spends that are, at best "unfortunate"
(< 5% projected points return, riders chosen for the game only)

Rider, price, points, teams
BOUHANNI Nacer , 1104 , 40 , 2
VAN GARDEREN Tejay , 956 , 0 , 4
NIBALI Vincenzo , 863 , 0 , 24
LANDA MEANA Mikel , 849 , 30 , 8
ROLLAND Pierre , 481 , 15 , 5
TALANSKY Andrew , 385 , 15 , 7
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd , 379 , 15 , 11
BARBERO CUESTA Carlos , 351 , 15 , 4
NIEMIEC Przemyslaw , 318 , 0 , 1
PELUCCHI Matteo , 313 , 0 , 8
MEZGEC Luka , 304 , 15 , 1
RUBIANO CHAVEZ Miguel Angel , 286 , 15 , 1
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David , 136 , 0 , 3
TANNER David , 125 , 0 , 1
MOHORIC Matej , 69 , 0 , 2

But having these riders is not necessarily disastrous: Barmaher (2nd) and Blues in the Bottle (5th) both have Van Garderen, asdfgh101 (4th) has both Nibali and Landa. On the other hand, behind the Chaves teams, there are 6 teams free of such disappointments.

8 teams still have all 9 riders in the race: AmisVelo, Hugo87, Kabete, LightBing, Mellow_Velo, Search, Semir, Tuart
8 remaining: 18Valve, asdfgh101, Barmaher, Blues_in_the_Bottle, Crevaison, DJW, GeraintTooFast, Gigs_98, Hakkie2, Josedin, JustSomeGuy, Leadbelly, LosBrolin, Midge, Minessa, NairoQ, Postmanhat, Rote_Laterne, Scrooll07, TomJelte, Trudgin
7 still going: Armchair_Cyclist, BigMac, Comodoro, Del1962, Joelsim, Karaev, MKind1, Murrjt, Shalgo, Vladimir
Only 6 still in the team: JosephD, The_Sceptic

If you wish to investigate the data any farther, here is the spreadsheet.
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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01 Sep 2015 12:59

Nice work, thanks very much for organising this.
barmaher
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Re: 2015 Vuelta CQ game

01 Sep 2015 22:05

Interesting on a rest day, thanks! Sucks that Zoidl lost 10 minutes yesterday, he seemed in a good position.
NairoQ
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02 Sep 2015 21:33

Stage 11 Purito's punishment
Now the race, and the game, might begin to reveal their true colours.

LANDA MEANA Mikel 70 8 teams
ARU Fabio 58 3 teams
BOSWELL Ian 25 0 team
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel 15 3 teams
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim 10 0 team
MAJKA Rafal 7 29 teams
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 5 1 team
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 3 5 teams
DUMOULIN Tom 2 0 team
ROSA Diego 1 1 team

Astana specialist 18 Valve wins the day: imagine his day score if Nibali had been there too.

1 18Valve 128 (Landa & Aru)
2 asdfgh101 80 (Landa, Majka & Chaves)
3= BigMac, Del1962, LosBrolin 77 (Landa & Majka)
6 Scrooll07 75 (Landa and Nieve)
7= Crevaison, Shalgo 70 ((Landa)
9= Kabete, Mellow_Velo 65 (Aru & Majka)
The best of the rest win just 22 guaranteed points today.

asdfgh101, the only Chaves manager to also have one of the key Astana riders, moves to the top of the guaranteed point rankings. With the likelihood of several days of Red jersey bonus to come, expect the three Aru teams to start moving up this table.
1 asdfgh101 377
2 Midge 351
3 Blues_in_the_Bottle 329
4 AmisVelo 313
5 Barmaher 299
6 Mellow_Velo 211
7 18Valve 179
8 Trudgin 151
9 Kabete 132
10 Shalgo 117
11 Del1962 110
11 LosBrolin 110
13 BigMac 103
14 Search 95
15 The_Sceptic 94
16 Murrjt 92
16 Scrooll07 92
18 Crevaison 87
18 Gigs_98 87
20 LightBing 85
21 Josedin 76
22 Tuart 69
23 Semir 61
24 Hugo87 54
24 MKind1 54
24 NairoQ 54
24 TomJelte 54
24 Vladimir 54
29 Leadbelly 50
29 Minessa 50
31 Comodoro 46
32 GeraintTooFast 40
32 Hakkie2 40
32 Joelsim 40
32 Karaev 40
32 Rote_Laterne 40
37 JosephD 33
37 Postmanhat 33
39 Armchair_Cyclist 28
39 JustSomeGuy 28
41 DJW 21
Collective_Wisdom 40

Projected points
Major reshuffle in the rankings today, as contenders and pretenders are separated.

ARU Fabio 331 3
LANDA MEANA Mikel 130 8
MAJKA Rafal 124 29
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel 102 3
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 50 1
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben 25 2
MEINTJES Louis 23 1
ROSA Diego 17 1
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 12 2
SCHLECK Fränk 10 14
...
BERHANE TEWELDEMEDHIN Natnael -10 3
ZOIDL Riccardo -13 3
ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar -14 3
POZZOVIVO Domenico -15 23
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander -42 12
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban -77 5

The riders who lost most projected points today (Dumoulin, Roche, Froome) were not selected, which fact, combined with Majka's popularity, means that there is a rich haul of points for most teams (but not mine, or the team most similar to it).
1 18Valve 469
2 Mellow_Velo 445
3 Kabete 431
4 BigMac 261
5 Del1962 249
6 LosBrolin 243
7 LightBing 220
8 Search 218
9 asdfgh101 185
10 Scrooll07 165
11 Murrjt 149
12 Comodoro 144
13 Shalgo 130
14 JosephD 126
15 GeraintTooFast 120
15 Postmanhat 120
17 Crevaison 117
18 Hakkie2 114
18 Tuart 114
20 Karaev 113
21 Rote_Laterne 111
22 Joelsim 106
23 Leadbelly 102
23 Minessa 102
25 TomJelte 95
26 Vladimir 90
27 MKind1 87
28 Semir 83
29 Hugo87 79
30 Blues_in_the_Bottle 61
31 NairoQ 60
32 Trudgin 35
33 Barmaher 30
34 Midge 25
35 AmisVelo 17
36 Josedin -12
37 Gigs_98 -21
38 The_Sceptic -42
39 DJW -44
40 Armchair_Cyclist -49
41 JustSomeGuy -67
Collective_Wisdom 131

Standings
Mellow Velo's trip to Andorra brings him cause to celebrate, as the Chaves teams finally yield the top places. Other Aru teams are now 5th and (after a 19 place jump) 8th: Del1962, Los Brolin and BigMac also have 2 digit place rises.
1 Mellow_Velo 1256
2 AmisVelo 1208
3 asdfgh101 1204
4 Barmaher 1182
5 Kabete 1144
6 Midge 1131
7 Blues_in_the_Bottle 1039
8 18Valve 937
9 Search 900
10 LightBing 893
11 Tuart 796
12 Semir 752
13 GeraintTooFast 740
14 LosBrolin 705
15 Del1962 686
16 NairoQ 670
17 Murrjt 669
18 Scrooll07 648
19 Hakkie2 647
20 Joelsim 643
21 Comodoro 621
22 Vladimir 620
23 MKind1 616
24 TomJelte 610
25 Rote_Laterne 603
26 Minessa 596
27 Leadbelly 583
28 Hugo87 581
29 Karaev 576
30 Postmanhat 561
31 BigMac 549
32 Shalgo 535
33 Crevaison 490
34 JosephD 467
35 Armchair_Cyclist 434
36 The_Sceptic 401
37 Trudgin 392
38 JustSomeGuy 388
39 Josedin 381
40 Gigs_98 367
41 DJW 315
Collective_Wisdom 621
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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03 Sep 2015 23:17

Stage 12
A calmer day, and our traditional paucity of points on a sprint stage.

VAN POPPEL Danny 70 0 team
IMPEY Daryl 40 0 team
VAN DER SANDE Tosh 25 0 team
ARU Fabio 18 3 teams
MAES Nikolas 15 0 team
DEGENKOLB John 10 0 team
DRUCKER Jempy 7 1 team
VAN ASBROECK Tom 5 0 team
SBARAGLI Kristian 3 0 team
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 2 4 teams
DUQUE Leonardo Fabio 1 0 team

1 Mellow_Velo 20 (Aru & Rojas)
2 18Valve 18
2 Kabete 18
4 Josedin 9
5 Blues_in_the_Bottle 2
5 Murrjt 2

and that's it for guaranteed points.

Projected points
Other than the guaranteed points, there are only small gains for everyone between 15th and 50st in GC as they shuffle up one spot to replace Froome, and slight rejigging of the Point and Mountain classifications.
ARU Fabio 13 3 teams
DRUCKER Jempy 7 1 team
CARDOSO Andre Fernando Santos Martins 6 2 teams
DE CLERCQ Bart 6 1 team
...
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben -10 2 teams

Kabete got 23 points, Murrjt got -3, everyone else got something inbetween. Not really worth a full listing of the day's gains and losses.

Geraint, Joelsim and Josedin each move up one spot in the standings: that's it.
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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04 Sep 2015 00:33

I rose 11 places in the overall standings. :O

Apocalypsis around the corner.
User avatar BigMac
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05 Sep 2015 10:04

Stage 13
A quiet transition
OLIVEIRA Nelson Felipe Santos Simoes 70 0 team
SIMON Julien 40 0 team
ROCHE Nicolas 25 0 team
ARU Fabio 18 3 teams
CHAVANEL Sylvain 15 0 team
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 10 4 teams
NOCENTINI Rinaldo 7 0 team
REZA Kévin 5 2 teams
CHEREL Mikael 3 0 team
MEYER Cameron 2 0 team
MONFORT Maxime 1 2 teams

Not many scorers: the vast majority of us got none of the top ten, but MV got three of them.
1 Mellow_Velo 33 (Aru, Reza and Rojas)
2 Kabete 19 (Aru & Monfort)
3 18Valve 18 (Aru)
4 Blues_in_the_Bottle , Josedin, Murrjt 10 (Rojas)
7 Midge 5 (Reza)
8 GeraintTooFast 1 (Monfort)

So slightly more action than yesterday, but not much more.

Top of the guaranteed point rankings
1 asdfgh101 377
2 Midge 356
3 Blues_in_the_Bottle 341
4 AmisVelo 313
5 Barmaher 299
6 Mellow_Velo 264
7 18Valve 215
8 Kabete 169
9 Trudgin 151
10 Shalgo 117
So that's five Chaves teams, followed by three Aru teams, followed by the sole Sagan team, and then the rest.

Projected Points
Some riders in the break whose rise in GC is not insignificant, and for every rise in the classifications, there is a fall:
BRAMBILLA Gianluca 46 1 team
ELISSONDE Kenny 25 21 teams
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben 25 2 teams
ARU Fabio 16 3 teams
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 12 4 teams
...
CARDOSO Andre Fernando Santos Martins -10 2 teams
DE CLERCQ Bart -12 1 team
CATTANEO Mattia -15 1 team
POZZOVIVO Domenico -16 23 teams
LANDA MEANA Mikel -23 8 teams
MEINTJES Louis -23 1 team
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander -30 12 teams


The changes today will be far more significant, I assume, but for the record:
1 Murrjt 43
2 Mellow_Velo 41
3 JosephD 33
4 Hakkie2 23
5 18Valve 19
5 Postmanhat 19
7 Kabete 15
8 Tuart 13
9 Midge 10
10 LightBing 9
11 Blues_in_the_Bottle 5
12 Joelsim 4
13 Search 2
14 GeraintTooFast 1
15 asdfgh101 0
16 Comodoro -3
16 Josedin -3
16 Vladimir -3
19 Trudgin -4
20 Barmaher -6
21 AmisVelo -7
22 MKind1 -11
23 NairoQ -13
24 Shalgo -16
25 Armchair_Cyclist -20
25 Crevaison -20
27 Karaev -21
28 Gigs_98 -22
29 Rote_Laterne -23
30 Minessa -24
31 Leadbelly -26
32 BigMac -27
33 Hugo87 -32
33 The_Sceptic -32
33 TomJelte -32
36 DJW -34
37 Del1962 -42
38 JustSomeGuy -46
38 LosBrolin -46
40 Scrooll07 -49
41 Semir -53
Collective_Wisdom 3


And so as we enter the weekend, the standings are:
1 Mellow_Velo 1315
2 asdfgh101 1212
3 AmisVelo 1208
4 Barmaher 1185
5 Kabete 1182
6 Midge 1147
7 Blues_in_the_Bottle 1048
8 18Valve 976
9 LightBing 910
9 Search 910
11 Tuart 810
12 GeraintTooFast 758
13 Murrjt 709
14 Semir 703
15 Hakkie2 672
16 NairoQ 665
17 LosBrolin 663
18 Joelsim 656
19 Del1962 647
20 Comodoro 625
21 Vladimir 623
22 MKind1 610
23 Scrooll07 609
24 Postmanhat 592
25 Rote_Laterne 585
26 TomJelte 580
27 Minessa 579
28 Leadbelly 562
29 Karaev 555
30 Hugo87 549
31 Shalgo 529
32 BigMac 525
33 JosephD 506
34 Crevaison 479
35 Armchair_Cyclist 419
36 Trudgin 395
37 Josedin 388
38 The_Sceptic 373
39 Gigs_98 349
40 JustSomeGuy 342
41 DJW 284
Collective_Wisdom 631

asdfgh101 and AmisVelo have swapped podium spots, and Postmanhat's 6 place rise is the greatest evidence of volatility.

If Aru remains in red, then MV has a convincing lead over the rest of the Aru teams. He also has Majka, Pozzovivo and Elissonde, while Kabete only has Majka from that list, and 18 Valve has the other two.
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05 Sep 2015 21:46

De Marchi :)
User avatar rote_laterne
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06 Sep 2015 15:15

Stage 14
The Goat's Spring (sorry it's late)

Guaranteed points
Both the break and the following GC contenders have a part to play in the game.
DE MARCHI Alessandro 70 2 teams
PUCCIO Salvatore 40 0 team
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 25 4 teams
ARU Fabio 20 3 teams
CHEREL Mikael 15 0 team
QUINTERO NORENA Carlos Julian 10 0 team
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 7 12 teams
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim 5 0 team
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 3 5 teams
MAJKA Rafal 1 29 teams

1 Josedin 95 (De Marchi and Rojas)
2 Rote_Laterne 71(De Marchi and Majka)
3 Mellow_Velo 46 (Rojas, Aru and Majka)
4 Blues_in_the_Bottle 29 (Rojas, Chaves, Majka)
5 Murrjt 26 (Rojas & Majka)
6 Kabete 21 (Aru & Majka)
7 18Valve 20 (Aru)
8 AmisVelo 11 (Quintana, Chaves & Majka)
9 Hugo87 8
9 MKind1 8
9 NairoQ 8
9 Semir 8
9 TomJelte 8
9 Tuart 8
9 Vladimir 8
16 Armchair_Cyclist 7
16 DJW 7
16 JustSomeGuy 7
16 The_Sceptic 7
20 asdfgh101 4
20 Barmaher 4
22 Midge 3
23 BigMac 1
23 Comodoro 1
23 Del1962 1
23 GeraintTooFast 1
23 Hakkie2 1
23 Joelsim 1
23 JosephD 1
23 Karaev 1
23 Leadbelly 1
23 LightBing 1
23 LosBrolin 1
23 Minessa 1
23 Postmanhat 1
23 Search 1
37 Crevaison 0
37 Gigs_98 0
37 Scrooll07 0
37 Shalgo 0
37 Trudgin 0
Collective_Wisdom 1

GP Standings
1 asdfgh101 381
2 Blues_in_the_Bottle 370
3 Midge 359
4 AmisVelo 324
5 Mellow_Velo 310
6 Barmaher 303
7 18Valve 235
8 Josedin 190
8 Kabete 190
10 Trudgin 151
11 Murrjt 130
12 Shalgo 117
13 Del1962 111
13 LosBrolin 111
13 Rote_Laterne 111
16 BigMac 104
17 The_Sceptic 101
18 Search 96
19 Scrooll07 92
20 Crevaison 87
20 Gigs_98 87
22 LightBing 86
23 Tuart 77
24 Semir 69
25 Hugo87 62
25 MKind1 62
25 NairoQ 62
25 TomJelte 62
25 Vladimir 62
30 Leadbelly 51
30 Minessa 51
32 Comodoro 47
33 GeraintTooFast 42
34 Hakkie2 41
34 Joelsim 41
34 Karaev 41
37 Armchair_Cyclist 35
37 JustSomeGuy 35
39 JosephD 34
39 Postmanhat 34
41 DJW 28
Collective_Wisdom 41

Yesterday's Projected points changes

DE MARCHI Alessandro 85 2 teams
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 50 1 team
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 46 4 teams
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 37 12 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 28 5 teams
ARU Fabio 16 3 teams
...
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin -11 2 teams
DE GENDT Thomas -15 5 teams
MAS BONET Lluis Guillermo -15 3 teams
MAJKA Rafal -23 29 teams
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel -25 3 teams
BRAMBILLA Gianluca -30 1 team

1 Josedin 134
2 Rote_Laterne 68
3 Scrooll07 62
4 Blues_in_the_Bottle 61
5 The_Sceptic 49
6 AmisVelo 46
7 JustSomeGuy 37
8 Armchair_Cyclist 35
9 Mellow_Velo 34
10 DJW 26
11 Murrjt 24
12 Tuart 21
13 18Valve 20
14 MKind1 18
14 NairoQ 18
16 Vladimir 14
17 Crevaison 13
17 Semir 13
17 Hugo87 13
20 Barmaher 10
20 Gigs_98 10
22 TomJelte 8
23 asdfgh101 7
24 Kabete 4
25 Shalgo -2
26 LosBrolin -7
27 BigMac -10
28 Midge -11
28 Del1962 -11
30 Trudgin -12
31 Minessa -18
32 Karaev -19
33 Joelsim -22
34 Postmanhat -23
35 JosephD -25
36 Comodoro -28
37 GeraintTooFast -33
38 Leadbelly -35
39 LightBing -38
40 Search -47
41 Hakkie2 -65
Collective_Wisdom -15

1 Mellow_Velo 1349
2 AmisVelo 1254
3 asdfgh101 1219
4 Barmaher 1195
5 Kabete 1186
6 Midge 1136
7 Blues_in_the_Bottle 1109
8 18Valve 996
9 LightBing 872
10 Search 863
11 Tuart 831
12 Murrjt 733
13 GeraintTooFast 725
14 Semir 716
15 NairoQ 683
16 Scrooll07 671
17 LosBrolin 656
18 Rote_Laterne 653
19 Vladimir 637
20 Del1962 636
21 Joelsim 634
22 MKind1 628
23 Hakkie2 607
24 Comodoro 597
25 TomJelte 588
26 Postmanhat 569
27 Hugo87 562
28 Minessa 561
29 Karaev 536
30 Leadbelly 527
30 Shalgo 527
32 Josedin 522
33 BigMac 515
34 Crevaison 492
35 JosephD 481
36 Armchair_Cyclist 454
37 The_Sceptic 422
38 Trudgin 383
39 JustSomeGuy 379
40 Gigs_98 359
41 DJW 310
Collective_Wisdom 616
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06 Sep 2015 20:44

Stage 15


Aru teams will know that their 18 point bonus today was nearly taken from them.

RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim 70 0 team
MAJKA Rafal 40 29 teams
ARU Fabio 28 3 teams
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel 25 3 teams
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 15 12 teams
LANDA MEANA Mikel 7 8 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 5 5 teams
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 3 1 team
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 2 0 team
POZZOVIVO Domenico 1 23 teams

Majka is the most popular rider in the game, so at least 40 points for most teams:
1 Mellow_Velo 69 (Majka, Aru, Pozzovivo)
2 Kabete 68 (Majka, Aru)
3= LightBing, Search 66 (Majka, Moreno, Pozzovivo)
5 AmisVelo 60 (Majka, Quintana, Chaves)
6 Semir 56 (Majka, Quintana, Pozzovivo)
7= Hugo87, MKind1, NairoQ, TomJelte, Tuart, Vladimir 55(Majka, Quintana)
13 asdfgh101 52
14= Del1962, LosBrolin 48
16 BigMac 47
17 Barmaher 46
18 Blues_in_the_Bottle 45
19= GeraintTooFast, Hakkie2, Joelsim, Karaev, Leadbelly, Minessa, Murrjt, Rote_Laterne 41
27= Comodoro, JosephD, Postmanhat 40
30 18Valve 35
31 Midge 31
32= Armchair_Cyclist, JustSomeGuy 16
34= DJW, The_Sceptic 15
36 Scrooll07 11
37= Crevaison , Shalgo 8
39= Gigs_98, Josedin 1
41 Trudgin 0
Collective_Wisdom 41

Projections
A steep enough finish to bring about some GC shuffling
MAJKA Rafal 121 29 teams
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel 75 3 teams
ARU Fabio 37 3 teams
MEINTJES Louis 23 1 team
POZZOVIVO Domenico 17 23 teams
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 17 12 teams
LANDA MEANA Mikel 15 8 teams
...
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin -10 4 teams
BRAMBILLA Gianluca -16 1 team
SCHLECK Fränk -18 14 teams
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel -22 1 team
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban -50 5 teams

1 LightBing 212
2 Search 199
3 Mellow_Velo 165
4 Kabete 161
5 NairoQ 153
5 Semir 153
7 MKind1 151
8 Comodoro 148
9 Joelsim 146
10 Vladimir 141
11 BigMac 139
12 Del1962 135
12 Karaev 135
12 Leadbelly 135
15 Hugo87 134
16 Hakkie2 132
16 LosBrolin 132
18 JosephD 131
19 Tuart 128
20 Minessa 127
21 TomJelte 126
22 Rote_Laterne 124
23 GeraintTooFast 122
24 Postmanhat 121
25 Murrjt 110
26 Barmaher 96
27 asdfgh101 86
28 AmisVelo 83
29 18Valve 58
30 Crevaison 43
30 Midge 43
32 Armchair_Cyclist 40
32 Blues_in_the_Bottle 40
34 JustSomeGuy 34
35 DJW 23
36 Scrooll07 18
36 Shalgo 18
38 Josedin 13
39 Trudgin 6
40 The_Sceptic 3
41 Gigs_98 -8
Collective_Wisdom 123

Chaves slipped a place in GC, allowing Kabete to pass the remaining Chavistas and have 2 of the three Aru teams at the top of the pile, while the third of them, 18 Valve, shows the cost of not going with Majka (his day 1 loss of Nibali having made Majka unaffordable). Had Rodriguez (deemed too expensive by all participating teams) got that extra second, there would be 143 pts less for each of those Aru teams, which would not have shaken Mellow Velo from the top, but would have kept Kabete back in 5th. Will tomorrow's mountains bring more change?

1 Mellow_Velo 1514
2 Kabete 1347
3 AmisVelo 1337
4 asdfgh101 1305
5 Barmaher 1291
6 Midge 1179
7 Blues_in_the_Bottle 1149
8 LightBing 1084
9 Search 1062
10 18Valve 1054
11 Tuart 959
12 Semir 869
13 GeraintTooFast 847
14 Murrjt 843
15 NairoQ 836
16 LosBrolin 788
17 Joelsim 780
18 MKind1 779
19 Vladimir 778
20 Rote_Laterne 777
21 Del1962 771
22 Comodoro 745
23 Hakkie2 739
24 TomJelte 714
25 Hugo87 696
26 Postmanhat 690
27 Scrooll07 689
28 Minessa 688
29 Karaev 671
30 Leadbelly 662
31 BigMac 654
32 JosephD 612
33 Shalgo 545
34 Crevaison 535
34 Josedin 535
36 Armchair_Cyclist 494
37 The_Sceptic 425
38 JustSomeGuy 413
39 Trudgin 389
40 Gigs_98 351
41 DJW 333
Collective_Wisdom 739
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07 Sep 2015 23:30

Stage 16
The last of the MTFs, and the first stage win for a rider with much popularity in the game.

SCHLECK Fränk 70 14 teams
TORRES AGUDELO Rodolfo Andres 40 0 team
MOSER Moreno 25 0 team
RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquim 20 0 team
BENNETT George 15 0 team
ROLLAND Pierre 10 5 teams
FRAILE MATARRANZ Omar 7 2 teams
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos 5 6 teams
WARBASSE Larry 3 1 team
ARU Fabio 1 3 teams

1 Rote_Laterne 80 (Schleck & Rolland)
2 LightBing , Semir 75 (Schleck & Verona)
4 Eleven other teams with Schleck 70
15 Best of the rest 15
Collective_Wisdom 70

Projected points
It nearly happened yesterday: it did today. Aru drops his projected first place, but the effect of it is lessened by Chaves also slipping further.

SCHLECK Fränk 126 14 teams
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 50 1 team
ROLLAND Pierre 26 5 teams
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 18 12 teams
DE CLERCQ Bart 12 1 team
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos 11 6 teams
WARBASSE Larry 10 1 team
...
NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel -14 10 teams
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben -15 2 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban -25 5 teams
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel -25 3 teams
ARU Fabio -114 3 teams

1 Semir 146
2 The_Sceptic 144
3 TomJelte 139
4 LosBrolin 134
5 Rote_Laterne 133
6 Del1962 127
6 Gigs_98 127
8 Shalgo 118
9 Tuart 112
10 GeraintTooFast 111
11 LightBing 103
12 Blues_in_the_Bottle 102
13 Murrjt 99
14 Search 84
15 Scrooll07 48
16 Hugo87 47
17 DJW 42
18 Crevaison 29
19 JustSomeGuy 18
19 MKind1 18
21 JosephD 17
21 Karaev 17
23 Vladimir 14
24 Postmanhat 11
25 NairoQ 10
26 Trudgin 8
27 Hakkie2 5
28 Armchair_Cyclist 4
29 BigMac 0
30 Leadbelly -4
31 Minessa -7
32 AmisVelo -14
33 Comodoro -17
33 Joelsim -17
35 Josedin -18
36 Barmaher -24
37 asdfgh101 -26
38 Midge -45
39 Mellow_Velo -126
40 18Valve -130
41 Kabete -132
Collective_Wisdom 122

Standings:
1 Mellow_Velo 1388
2 AmisVelo 1323
3 asdfgh101 1279
4 Barmaher 1267
5 Blues_in_the_Bottle 1251
6 Kabete 1215
7 LightBing 1187
8 Search 1146
9 Midge 1134
10 Tuart 1071
11 Semir 1015
12 GeraintTooFast 958
13 Murrjt 942
14 18Valve 924
15 LosBrolin 922
16 Rote_Laterne 910
17 Del1962 898
18 TomJelte 853
19 NairoQ 846
20 MKind1 797
21 Vladimir 792
22 Joelsim 763
23 Hakkie2 744
24 Hugo87 743
25 Scrooll07 737
26 Comodoro 728
27 Postmanhat 701
28 Karaev 688
29 Minessa 681
30 Shalgo 663
31 Leadbelly 658
32 BigMac 654
33 JosephD 629
34 The_Sceptic 569
35 Crevaison 564
36 Josedin 517
37 Armchair_Cyclist 498
38 Gigs_98 478
39 JustSomeGuy 431
40 Trudgin 397
41 DJW 375
Collective_Wisdom 861

Most of the top 10 in GC, and most of our main scorers, are tiny lightweights who will not like the time trial. On Wednesday, I suspect the key question will be who loses fewest points.
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08 Sep 2015 00:51

It's a pity that the points that Bouhanni scores in other races before the end of the Vuelta do not count towards his score in this game.
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Re:

08 Sep 2015 06:20

shalgo wrote:It's a pity that the points that Bouhanni scores in other races before the end of the Vuelta do not count towards his score in this game.

It's a pity that the UCI has so little confidence in the justice of its rules that it decides so often to ignore them.

But no, I'm afraid your poor return in the game from this rather expensive pick cannot be mitigated by what he does elsewhere.
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09 Sep 2015 21:15

Stage 17 ITT
The race of truth, or of passing deception?

None of us chose powerful timetrialists, but then some little climbers got into the stage points anyway.

DUMOULIN Tom 88 0 team
BODNAR Maciej 40 0 team
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 25 0 team
KIRYIENKA Vasil 15 0 team
COPPEL Jérôme 10 3 teams
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 7 12 teams
SICARD Romain 5 0 team
OLIVEIRA Nelson Felipe Santos Simoes 3 0 team
CUMMINGS Stephen 2 0 team
ARU Fabio 1 3 teams

1 AmisVelo, Vladimir 17 (Coppel & Quintana)
3 Minessa 10 (Coppel)
4= The Quintana teams 7
14= Aru teams 1

Had anyone chosen Dumoulin, his daily gain would have been 356: but all we got between us was:
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 84 12 teams
COPPEL Jérôme 12 3 teams
...
ARU Fabio -14 3 teams
MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel -25 3 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban -50 5 teams
MAJKA Rafal -55 29 teams
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel -90 1 team

More loses than gains today:
1 DJW 84
1 JustSomeGuy 84
1 The_Sceptic 84
4 Armchair_Cyclist 83
5 Vladimir 41
6 Hugo87 29
6 NairoQ 29
6 Tuart 29
9 MKind1 28
9 Semir 28
9 TomJelte 28
12 Trudgin 2
13 Crevaison 0
13 Shalgo 0
15 Gigs_98 -1
15 Josedin -1
17 AmisVelo -12
18 18Valve -15
19 Minessa -45
20 GeraintTooFast -53
21 Comodoro -55
21 Del1962 -55
21 Joelsim -55
21 Murrjt -55
21 Rote_Laterne -55
26 Karaev -57
26 Leadbelly -57
26 LosBrolin -57
26 Postmanhat -57
30 BigMac -58
30 Hakkie2 -58
30 JosephD -58
33 Kabete -69
33 Mellow_Velo -69
35 Midge -77
36 Search -80
37 LightBing -83
38 Scrooll07 -90
39 asdfgh101 -105
40 Barmaher -107
40 Blues_in_the_Bottle -107
Collective_Wisdom -58

Standings
The stage that might be decisive for the real race brought about very little change in the standings here, but look at the scores of those top two: just 8 points in it, between 2 teams that only have 2 riders in common. If Aru gets back into red, then it is all done, but if he stays 2nd, then it might be that every minor placing could count.

1 Mellow_Velo 1319
2 AmisVelo 1311
3 asdfgh101 1174
4 Barmaher 1160
5 Kabete 1146
6 Blues_in_the_Bottle 1144
7 LightBing 1104
8 Tuart 1100
9 Search 1066
10 Midge 1057
11 Semir 1043
12 18Valve 909
13 GeraintTooFast 905
14 Murrjt 887
15 TomJelte 881
16 NairoQ 875
17 LosBrolin 865
18 Rote_Laterne 855
19 Del1962 843
20 Vladimir 833
21 MKind1 825
22 Hugo87 772
23 Joelsim 708
24 Hakkie2 686
25 Comodoro 673
26 Shalgo 663
27 The_Sceptic 653
28 Scrooll07 647
29 Postmanhat 644
30 Minessa 636
31 Karaev 631
32 Leadbelly 601
33 BigMac 596
34 Armchair_Cyclist 581
35 JosephD 571
36 Crevaison 564
37 Josedin 516
38 JustSomeGuy 515
39 Gigs_98 477
40 DJW 459
41 Trudgin 399
Collective_Wisdom 803
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