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2016-18 Emerging Riders CQ Game

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01 Feb 2016 06:35

I feel pretty confident in my team this year. I don't know if I'm surprised or not that I'm at the top of the popularity score. I guess many of my picks are pretty straight forward but I don't think that I deliberately went for the most obvious talents.
User avatar Hugo Koblet
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Re:

01 Feb 2016 06:47

togo95 wrote:I don't know what exactly are all the problems you experience. However, the popularity for riders works if you delete column I in the Popularity sheet (or alternatively change all col_index_num in the VLOOKUP function to 6 (the value was 5 previously) in Popularity columns for riders, but the other method is easier).

edit: link to spreadsheet with one column deleted in the Popularity sheet


Thanks very much: I had added the column with asterisks for unique riders just before posting the teams last night, and the coding hadn't allowed for that. Why did that solution occur to me the instant I woke up, but not when I was pulling my hair out last night?

Many thanks also for the popularity stats (and sorry for crediting the wrong person): I have a little more analysis I can add after work.
Last edited by Armchair cyclist on 02 Feb 2016 21:23, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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01 Feb 2016 07:01

And congratulations to DJW for bringing HOFSTEDE Lennard to my attention: I only wish he had uncovered an Albanian called KUPAR Xeldun to team up with him.
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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01 Feb 2016 09:47

Interesting, one team didn't pick Gaviria
User avatar GP Blanco
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01 Feb 2016 12:42

Ah, I see now that I completly forgot Boudat in this game. I am one of only four that have him in the normal 2016 game, so I really should have considered him here also... :(
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Re:

01 Feb 2016 17:16

GP Blanco wrote:Interesting, one team didn't pick Gaviria


That was Velorooms' new arrival, Guilherme Ribeiro: his most popular pick was Alex Peters.

While Gaviria is rendered almost entirely meaningless in terms of the game, there are 4 other picks that more than 3/4 of teams have chosen:
Laurens De Plus (missed by Guilherme, Just Some Guy, and LukasCPH);
Lennard Kamna (omitted by Guilherme, 0w1s, Laarsland and Trudgin);
Gianni Moscon (eschewed by (guess who?) Guilherme, 0w1s, Just Some Guy, Laarsland and LukasCPH) and
Mads Pedersen (overlooked by Guilherme (of course), 0w1s, Just Some Guy, Laarsland, Trudgin, and also GPBlanco, Kazistuta, Vladimir and Bomboloni)

As well as those 5, another 4 riders (Tao Geoghegan-Hart, Marc Soler, Thomas Boudat and Simone Consonni) were selected by more than half the teams.

So how many of these 9 riders who most teams picked did we each go for?
All 9 of them: Amis Velo, Hugo Koblet, MC Mountain, Murrjt, Rote Laterne and yours' truly;
8: Abbulf, Blues in the Bottle, Del1962, Hilltop Finisher, Karaev, Madrazo, Ruudz0r, Skidmark and The Fool on the Hill;
7: Alykaptan, Flo, GPBlanco, Jakob747, Leadbelly, Ludwigzgz and Togo;
6: 0w1s, Comodoro, DJW, Italian Gigolo, Joelsim, Kazistuta and Scrool007;
5: Josedin, LukasCPH and Vladimir;
4: Bombolini, Just Some Guy and Trudgin;
3: Laarsland
0: Guilherme Ribeiro.

Amis Velo not only has the most popular 9 riders, but also Tom Bohli, Rodrigo Contreras, and Louis Vervaeke, one of the two riders in joint 12th for popularity.

Dylan Page was in the majority of teams that were entered on Sunday afternoon/evening, but not in any team submitted before his third place in the Trofeo Playa de Palma.

And the Collective Wisdom squad, the standard against which we might test ourselves, is made up of the top 18 riders in terms of popularity (or most hyped at the beginning of the 3 years, if you prefer):
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando
DE PLUS Laurens
KÄMNA Lennard
MOSCON Gianni
PEDERSEN Mads
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
SOLER GIMENEZ Marc
BOUDAT Thomas
CONSONNI Simone
BOHLI Tom
CONTRERAS PINZON Rodrigo
MARTIN Guillaume
VERVAEKE Louis
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe
MAMYKIN Matvey
MANZIN Lorrenzo
MULLEN Ryan
PETERS Alex
(Popularity ranking would be 373)
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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Re: 2016-18 Emerging Riders CQ Game

01 Feb 2016 17:40

I really like my team but usually that isn't a good sign :p

BERNARD Julien 9 picks
CONSONNI Simone 19
DE PLUS Laurens 34
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 36
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao 24
HOELGAARD Daniel 8
KÄMNA Lennard 33
MAMYKIN Matvey 13
MARTIN Guillaume 15
MARTINELLI Davide 9
MOSCON Gianni 32
MULLEN Ryan 12
ORAM James 10
PEDERSEN Mads 28
ROOSEN Timo 3
VELASCO Simone 3
VENTURINI Clément 4
WALSCHEID Maximilian 6

Unfortunately Walscheid was 1 of the Giants that got hit by the ancient British lady... good thing it is a 3-year game I suppose :p
Alberto we love you
on the road
you don't need to say this stuff
we saw you on the road
you blessed us with 9 great shows
let's not argue the toss about the official count
you are much bigger than that
~TourOfSardinia
User avatar LaFlorecita
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Re: Re:

01 Feb 2016 18:29

Armchair cyclist wrote:
GP Blanco wrote:Interesting, one team didn't pick Gaviria


Dylan Page was in the majority of teams that were entered on Sunday afternoon/evening, but not in any team submitted before his third place in the Trofeo Playa de Palma.


Reminds me of picking Gaviria and Mareczko last year. Didn't know these guys but they were scoring big last year in January.

I considered Page this year but swapped him with Soler one I realised the latter was under the 200 points mark.
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Re: Re:

01 Feb 2016 18:50

Armchair cyclist wrote:[quote="[url=http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?p=1860034#p1860034]

Dylan Page was in the majority of teams that were entered on Sunday afternoon/evening, but not in any team submitted before his third place in the Trofeo Playa de Palma.


I considered Dylan Page for all my teams this year, it was the last rider I swapped in my team for Velasco. Yesterday I was tempted to swap Page and Oram (who I also had on my shortlist) for Großschartner and Peters but then decided against it. I hope Page will be eligible next year also. ;)

But I'm really happy with my team, I do have the 10 most popular riders and some not very popular ones. I guess this will be my most successful game of the games starting this year.
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01 Feb 2016 23:36

More spreadsheet problems: I'll try again tomorrow to get the first update up.
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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02 Feb 2016 08:51

Woohoo, indieteam!

Hoping for Truls Engen Korsæth to smash it in both TTas and U23-cobbled classics this year to earn lots of points in especially 2018. One of the things I think I'll need a few editions to get a feel for is how young it makes sense to pick the riders for this game. I have high hopes for a rider like Paret Peintre, but I think it's a year too early for him to generate significant points in the last season of this edition compared to some of the riders who already are on pro-conti/WT-teams or are likely to be next year.

Go Jonas Koch!

Don't think Moscon will be aforded much freedom at Sky these next two years, so
laarsland
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02 Feb 2016 22:00

Let the game begin:
Year 1, Month 1
A few riders give an early token of appreciation to those who chose them:
(Rider, points, teams)
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 41 36
PAGE Dylan 36 5
ORAM James 31 10
MAKHCHOUN Mounir 26 1
MANZIN Lorrenzo 16 12
CANTY Brendan 10 4
HOFSTETTER Hugo 10 1
SCULLY Tom 10 1
SQUIRE Robbie 10 1
MARTINELLI Davide 6 9
BETTIOL Alberto 5 2
CALMEJANE Lilian 5 1
CHETOUT Loïc 5 1
CONTRERAS PINZON Rodrigo 5 16
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao 5 24
GOGL Michael 5 4
LOWNDES Jason 5 1
VERVAEKE Louis 5 15
ZURLO Federico 5 2
SOLER GIMENEZ Marc 2 22

Although a few riders flaunt our failure to pick them in our faces, primarily:
OKUBAMARIAM ISSAK Tesfom 67
LANE Patrick 55
TORRES BARCELO Albert 44
NAULEAU Bryan 38
HAMILTON Chris 35
VILLALOBOS SOLIS Roman 35
CHRISTIE Jason 34
O'CONNOR Ben Alexander 31
SPOKES Sam 30
FORTIN Filippo 29
O'BRIEN Mark 29
CHAVARRIA RODRIGUEZ Joseph Eladio 26
KONING Peter 26
AFEWERKI Elias 25


So the early break on stage 1 of our GT positions are:
1 Skidmark 108
2 ItalianGigolo 105
3 Jakob747 97
4 AmisVelo 94
5 The_Fool_on_the_Hill 93
6 GPBlanco 90
6 Togo 90
6 Trudgin 90
9 Blues_in_the_Bottle 89
9 DJW 89
11 HilltopFinisher 87
12 Flo 83
13 Ruudz0r 82
14 HugoKoblet 80
15 Del1962 79
16 Bomboloni 77
17 Comodoro 74
17 Madrazo 74
19 Scrooll07 70
20 Murrjt 69
20 Vladimir 69
22 JustSomeGuy 66
23 0w1s 64
23 Karaev 64
23 MCMountain 64
26 Alykaptan 63
27 Joelsim 62
28 Armchair_Cyclist 58
28 Ludwigzgz 58
30 Josedin 57
30 Laarsland 57
32 Abbulf 53
33 Kazistuta 51
33 Leadbelly 51
33 LukasCPH 51
36 RoteLaterne 48
37 GuilhermeRibeiro 26
CollectiveWisdom 74
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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Re: 2016-18 Emerging Riders CQ Game

02 Feb 2016 22:09

well, if you're the best at picking riders who have already scored points, at least that's somethin'.
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02 Feb 2016 23:59

GP Blanco and ItalianGigolo in the top 10 for all three editions.
mc_mountain
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Re: 2016-18 Emerging Riders CQ Game

03 Feb 2016 00:20

I was just looking through my 2015-17 team, and realized that I picked 5 riders that I also picked last year! Ha, I guess that means they weren't the best picks last year. Here's my team from last year, with those riders highlighted:

BOUDAT Thomas
CHEVRIER Cl?ment
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando

HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian
HNIK Karel
K?NG Stefan
LATOUR Pierre-Roger
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel
LUDVIGSSON Fredrik
MOHORIC Matej
MULLEN Ryan
NAESEN Oliver
POWER Robert
QUINTANA ROJAS Dayer Uberney
RUFFONI Nicola
VAN DER POEL Mathieu
VERVAEKE Louis
ZEPUNTKE Ruben

Of course, Gaviria was picked by 36/37 teams this year, and was picked by 12 last year. That's probably smart, as he didn't have a definite ride last year (I picked him because I thought his year 2/3 upside was high anyway). Boudat was picked by 20 this year, and 16 last year, which I guess suggests people kept believing in him and that he focused on track last year and maybe needs more road duties. Mullen was picked by 12 this year and 11 last year, which suggests to me that his stock hasn't risen. What's really interesting to me was that Vervaeke was picked by 23 teams last year and 15 this year, and Chevrier by 10 last year and only 3 this year. Wouldn't people think they'd do better with a year under their belts? Sure, they both had anonymous years last year, but I'm convinced Vervaeke's talent is still there (although Chevrier is a bit more of a gamble). Do folks who picked them last year think they're busts? Just curious.
skidmark
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Re: 2016-18 Emerging Riders CQ Game

03 Feb 2016 12:57

skidmark wrote:Of course, Gaviria was picked by 36/37 teams this year, and was picked by 12 last year. That's probably smart, as he didn't have a definite ride last year (I picked him because I thought his year 2/3 upside was high anyway). Boudat was picked by 20 this year, and 16 last year, which I guess suggests people kept believing in him and that he focused on track last year and maybe needs more road duties. Mullen was picked by 12 this year and 11 last year, which suggests to me that his stock hasn't risen. What's really interesting to me was that Vervaeke was picked by 23 teams last year and 15 this year, and Chevrier by 10 last year and only 3 this year. Wouldn't people think they'd do better with a year under their belts? Sure, they both had anonymous years last year, but I'm convinced Vervaeke's talent is still there (although Chevrier is a bit more of a gamble). Do folks who picked them last year think they're busts? Just curious.


For me it has to do with not wanting to pick the same riders again and again. I have only Gaviria from my 201-2017 because I guessed everyone would pick him.
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Re: 2016-18 Emerging Riders CQ Game

03 Feb 2016 20:08

GP Blanco wrote:
skidmark wrote:Of course, Gaviria was picked by 36/37 teams this year, and was picked by 12 last year. That's probably smart, as he didn't have a definite ride last year (I picked him because I thought his year 2/3 upside was high anyway). Boudat was picked by 20 this year, and 16 last year, which I guess suggests people kept believing in him and that he focused on track last year and maybe needs more road duties. Mullen was picked by 12 this year and 11 last year, which suggests to me that his stock hasn't risen. What's really interesting to me was that Vervaeke was picked by 23 teams last year and 15 this year, and Chevrier by 10 last year and only 3 this year. Wouldn't people think they'd do better with a year under their belts? Sure, they both had anonymous years last year, but I'm convinced Vervaeke's talent is still there (although Chevrier is a bit more of a gamble). Do folks who picked them last year think they're busts? Just curious.


For me it has to do with not wanting to pick the same riders again and again. I have only Gaviria from my 201-2017 because I guessed everyone would pick him.


I didn't want to pick riders I already had in the first edition for the second, thus leaving out Henao which will hurt me.

This year I did not pick Mullen because he rides for Cannondale. I don't think it's a good team for a first year pro. If he's still eligible I strongly consider him for next year.
Vervaeke I'm not sure, I think Lotto has more talented riders now.
Chevrier was on my youth team if I'm not mistaken, I did consider him for this year but I think I found better picks this year (Boudat for example who was also in my Youth team rooster). And I'm not so sure if IAM is the best team for a youngster either.

I'm prepared to win this game in full Gerrans-style. :D
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07 Feb 2016 21:16

Thanks to GuilhermeRibeiro I'm not dead last again. But I have confidence in my team. And again some points:
BOHLI Tom 5
CONSONNI Simone 8
SOLER GIMENEZ Marc 5

Coming up next:
Tour of Qatar (2.HC)
BOHLI Tom
CARBEL SVENDGAARD Michael
PEDERSEN Mads
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Re: 2016-18 Emerging Riders CQ Game

23 Feb 2016 01:35

Brendan Canty has almost passed his career CQ points after the Tour of Oman.
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Re:

27 Feb 2016 21:50

mc_mountain wrote:GP Blanco and ItalianGigolo in the top 10 for all three editions.


If I will be in top 10 in all editions till the end it would be as nice as a win in one of them for me! I should've picked Ciccone but somehow forgot about him...
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