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2016 Giro CQ Game

Come in and talk about betting, computer games and cycling simulations, and your office's or online fantasy cycling leagues.

Moderators: peloton, Eshnar, Red Rick, Tonton, Pricey_sky

18 May 2016 03:31

Well this game was fun while it lasted ;)
User avatar Tigerion
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Posts: 481
Joined: 21 Jul 2011 03:23

18 May 2016 05:13

If I knew Valverde would play it safe in his quest for overall victory (yesterdays stage was yet another stage for him), I probably wouldn't have picked him... well, then I'd most likely had picked Landa instead, so at least I still have a rider in contention :-)
User avatar Kazistuta
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Posts: 1,214
Joined: 19 Mar 2009 06:18
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark

18 May 2016 05:48

People with all 9 riders in their team and their rank as of stag 10:
Barmaher at 3
Caruut at 26
Comodoro at 12
Murali at 10


Obviously, having all riders is not going to make you win this game. But having all 9 definitely helps.

(anecdotal evidence only. 950 points from wins is not yet included.)
User avatar murali
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Posts: 2,732
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18 May 2016 13:46

Landa out ... its over for me :(
User avatar Jancouver
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Posts: 2,314
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Location: San Diego, USA

18 May 2016 19:46

Stage 11 Flat, but no sprint-fest

Top 2 on GC are in the top three of a flat stage: this is not ordinary.

Guaranteed points

ULISSI Diego 70points 0 teams
JUNGELS Bob 43 4 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 40 1 team
NIZZOLO Giacomo 15 0 team
COLBRELLI Sonny 10 1 team
TRENTIN Matteo 7 0 team
MODOLO Sacha 5 0 team
BATTAGLIN Enrico 3 10 teams
WELLENS Tim 2 0 team
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 1 1 team

As I suspected, not many points here, but Jungle Bob goes beyond his expected 18 for the day.

1= Barmaher, Bbass, BicycleBoy, BluesInTheBottle (Hence my references to the four Bs) 43 (Jungels)
5 Jancouver 40 (Amador)
6 Trudgin 10 (Colbrelli)
7 AmisVelo, Armchair_Cyclis, Caruut ,DJW, GodChild, GPBlanco, Hakkie2, Minessa, Murrjt, Torcia86 3 (Battaglin)
17 Kazistuta 1(Valverde)


The Minessa/LightBing duopoly finally yields to the pressure of Bob Jungels

1 BluesInTheBottle 283
2 Minessa 268
3 LightBing 266
4 Fauniera 260
5 Yellow_Knight 249
6 Not_My_Circus 234
7 Murrjt 230
8 Mellow_Velo 229
9 Del1962 220
9 Laarsland 220
11 Joelsim 219
12 DJW 217
13 Carlo_Algatrensig 214
14 Capt_Cavman 209
15 Search 190
16 Tigerion 174
17 BicycleBoy 165
18 Bbass 144
19 Barmaher 125
20 NairoQ 105
21 Leadbelly 104
22 Jancouver 96
23 Murali 92
24 GPBlanco 86
24 Scrool07 86
26 Josedin 83
26 SemirS 83
28 PremierAndrew 82
29 Shalgo 81
29 Trudgin 81
31 Crevaison 78
32 Kabete 71
33 ArchieBoy 64
34 GodChild 60
35 AmisVelo 58
36 Rote_Laterne 54
37 18Valve 52
37 LosBrolin 52
39 Hakkie2 50
40 Armchair_Cyclist 48
41 GeraintTooFast 47
42 Comodoro 46
43 Caruut 44
44 Kazistuta 42
45 Postmanhat 39
46 JosephD 35
47 TomJelte 24
48 Hugo87 22
48 Vladimir 22
50 JustSomeGuy 20
51 Torcia86 18
Collective_Wisdom 49


Projected points
In the absence of anyone picking Ulissi, today's changes in projected points are modest:
JUNGELS Bob +45 4 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey +43 1 team
ZAKARIN Ilnur +40 16 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban +30 2 teams
MAJKA Rafal +25 8 teams
URAN URAN Rigoberto +16 28 teams
...
ROCHE Nicolas -10 1 team
WYSS Marcel -16 1 team
POZZOVIVO Domenico -24 9 teams
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos -26 1 team
FUGLSANG Jakob -53 4 teams

Likewise, the changes for the teams are minor compared to yesterday, Bob's Bs again leading the gains:
1 Bbass 89
2 BluesInTheBottle 86
3 Barmaher 83
4 GPBlanco 76
5 Scrool07 69
6 Hakkie2 65
7 BicycleBoy 61
8 Torcia86 60
9 Mellow_Velo 58
10 LightBing 56
11 Trudgin 50
12 Leadbelly 48
12 Postmanhat 48
12 Shalgo 48
15 Carlo_Algatrensig 42
15 Joelsim 42
17 Comodoro 41
17 TomJelte 41
19 Crevaison 36
20 GodChild 35
21 AmisVelo 31
22 Laarsland 29
23 PremierAndrew 28
23 Tigerion 28
25 NairoQ 26
26 DJW 25
27 Kabete 22
28 Capt_Cavman 20
28 SemirS 20
30 Vladimir 19
31 Josedin 18
31 Yellow_Knight 18
33 Kazistuta 17
34 Search 16
35 Caruut 15
36 Minessa 14
37 Armchair_Cyclist 13
38 Jancouver 11
38 Murrjt 11
40 GeraintTooFast 10
41 Hugo87 8
42 Rote_Laterne 2
43 18Valve 0
43 JustSomeGuy 0
45 Del1962 -6
45 JosephD -6
47 LosBrolin -16
48 Murali -19
49 Fauniera -24
50 Not_My_Circus -27
51 ArchieBoy -37
Collective_Wisdom 58

Standings
Bicycle Boy remains top of the Jungle Gang, but Blues and Barmaher get closer due to Zakarin's rise in GC (or, more honestly, the falls of Brambilla and Fuglsang). Having both Zakarin and the similarly fortunate Majka is enough to make Scrool07 the riser of the day, while GPBlanco in 4th and the only one to interrupt the Jungels B-gang at the top also boasts that pairing.
1 BicycleBoy 1190
2 BluesInTheBottle 1180
3 Barmaher 1101
4 GPBlanco 921
5 Bbass 919
6 LightBing 901
7 Not_My_Circus 765
8 Jancouver 764
9 Del1962 748
10 Minessa 746
11 Murali 730
12 Comodoro 711
13 Mellow_Velo 697
14 TomJelte 674
15 Torcia86 673
16 Scrool07 668
17 DJW 656
18 18Valve 647
19 NairoQ 645
20 Crevaison 644
21 Vladimir 628
22 Kabete 625
23 LosBrolin 617
24 Search 610
25 Caruut 572
25 Yellow_Knight 572
27 Kazistuta 567
28 SemirS 565
29 Postmanhat 561
30 Laarsland 547
31 AmisVelo 541
32 Fauniera 537
33 Carlo_Algatrensig 536
33 Hakkie2 536
35 Capt_Cavman 531
36 Trudgin 517
37 Leadbelly 501
38 Tigerion 493
39 Joelsim 489
40 Shalgo 465
41 Murrjt 464
42 GeraintTooFast 455
42 Rote_Laterne 455
44 ArchieBoy 446
45 Hugo87 441
46 JustSomeGuy 410
47 Armchair_Cyclist 409
48 JosephD 403
49 PremierAndrew 388
50 Josedin 379
51 GodChild 340
Collective_Wisdom 421

If Nibali is still expected to rise to the top, the teams best positioned to benefit are Comodoro, Tom Jelte, 18Valve (remarkably, considering the loss of Landa), NairoQ and Search.

Tomorrow will not be the day that happens though, and in terms of the game, I doubt much else will.
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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Location: East of England, West of Ireland

18 May 2016 22:29

Arm,Thanks for the updates. It sure is nice breathing this rarefied air.

When my team was voted least popular I was scared to death. Then Kittle went out. When Uran struggled during the time trial I thought it was curtains . Now I have nowhere to go but down but it’s been a great ride.

The collective wisdom's current performance has statisticians talking and scratching their heads at the same time.

Happy to be one of the four B’s,
Blues
Blues in the bottle
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Re:

19 May 2016 12:53

Jancouver wrote:Landa out ... its over for me :(


you are in top-10 and giving up?

i think you should just wait till stage 17....
User avatar murali
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,732
Joined: 26 Nov 2012 07:20

19 May 2016 21:04

Stage 12 Pancake Thursday

Guaranteed points

Without Kittel and Viviani, the only remaining sprinter to have had many points spent on him is Ewan. (I'm not counting Colbrelli as a true sprinter) Two teams will be pleased to see Greipel on his way with stages 17 and 21 to come.

GREIPEL André 70 pts 0 team
EWAN Caleb 40 2 teams
NIZZOLO Giacomo 25 0 team
JUNGELS Bob 18 4 teams
MODOLO Sacha 15 0 team
PORSEV Alexander 10 5 teams
HOFLAND Moreno 7 0 team
SAVITSKY Ivan 5 0 team
HAUSSLER Heinrich 3 0 team
ZABEL Rick 2 0 team
COLBRELLI Sonny 1 1 team

Only Blues in the Bottle has more than one of these riders, pairing Ewan and Jungels:
1 BluesInTheBottle 58
2 Josedin 40
3= Barmaher, Bbass, BicycleBoy 18
6= Comodoro, JosephD, LightBing, Rote_Laterne , Yellow_Knight 10
11 Trudgin 1

LightBing is back to 2nd, only change in the GP top 15, so I won't bother showing much of the table.
1 BluesInTheBottle 341
2 LightBing 276
3 Minessa 268
4 Fauniera 260
5 Yellow_Knight 259

Projected points
There were absolutely no changes in the top 50 of GC, so other than the guaranteed points, the only changes are minor changes at the bottom of the points top ten and Agnoli's withdrawal.

EWAN Caleb +42 2 teams
JUNGELS Bob +16 4 teams
PORSEV Alexander +10 5 teams
OSS Daniel +5 1 team
COLBRELLI Sonny +1 1 teams
...

CICCONE Giulio -1 3 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey -2 1 team
AGNOLI Valerio -15 3 teams


So our teams scores change by very little, and most not at all:
1 BluesInTheBottle 58
2 Josedin 42
3 Barmaher 16
3 Bbass 16
3 BicycleBoy 16
6 LightBing 15
7 Comodoro 10
7 JosephD 10
7 Rote_Laterne 10
7 Yellow_Knight 10
...
45 Fauniera -1
45 Leadbelly -1
45 NairoQ -1
48 Jancouver -2
49 Trudgin -14
50 Hakkie2 -15
50 JustSomeGuy -15

Even with such limited gains and losses, there is some significant (for now) change: the Four B's are now the top four, and Blues in the Bottle overhauls Bicycle Boy at the very top. Other than those changes, there is only one rise and one fall in the top 30. At the other end of the table, Ewan lifts Josedin enough to increase fivefold the number of teams below him.

1 BluesInTheBottle 1238
2 BicycleBoy 1206
3 Barmaher 1117
4 Bbass 935
5 GPBlanco 921
6 LightBing 916

Tomorrow will probably see at least one rider lose a lot of projected GC points, and a few others move up a bit to replace him, but who will the tumbler(s) be?
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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Location: East of England, West of Ireland

20 May 2016 09:37

Every GT he does, I pick Pelucchi for the game and every GT he disappoints. Probably not picking him for the Vuelta game if he rides, which will be the GT he wins a stage in knowing my luck…

Picked Landa in this game 2014 and 2016, both times he's been fairly awful or unlucky. Amador was also picked in 2014, left him off my team the two seasons he has looked good for GC :'(

At this stage I hope to not finish last. Porsev has been the best thing about my team and that says it all!
JosephD
New Member
 
Posts: 48
Joined: 23 Nov 2013 13:51

20 May 2016 20:10

Stage 13 Into the Alps

Guaranteed points
Just enough survivors from the break to limit the points for the more popular riders contesting GC, and a new recipient of the 18 pink points.

NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 70pts 0 team
VISCONTI Giovanni 40pts 1 team
NIBALI Vincenzo 25pts 11 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey 18pts 1 team
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 15pts 1 team
MAJKA Rafal 10pts 8 teams
DENIFL Stefan 7pts 0 team
KRUIJSWIJK Steven 5pts 9 teams
URAN URAN Rigoberto 3pts 28 teams
MONTAGUTI Matteo 2pts 0 team
POZZOVIVO Domenico 1pt 9 teams

1 Trudgin 40 (Visconti)
2= Comodoro, TomJelte 38 (Nibali, Majka and Uran)
4 18Valve 30 (Nibali and Kruijswijk)
5= AmisVelo, NairoQ, Search 28 (Landa and Uran)
8= Armchair_Cyclist, GeraintTooFast, Hugo87, JustSomeGuy, Rote_Laterne 25 (Nibali)
13 Jancouver 19
14 Kazistuta 18
15 GPBlanco 15
16 Vladimir 14
17= BluesInTheBottle, Torcia86 13
19= Laarsland, Scrool07 10
21 Del1962 9
22= BicycleBoy, DJW, Kabete, LightBing, SemirS 8
27 LosBrolin 6
28= Crevaison, JosephD, Murali 4
31 Uran fans 3
41 two Pozzovivo teams 1

GP standings
1 BluesInTheBottle 354
2 LightBing 284
3 Minessa 271
4 Fauniera 261
5 Yellow_Knight 259
6 Not_My_Circus 237
7 Mellow_Velo 232
8 Laarsland 230
8 Murrjt 230
10 Del1962 229


Projected Points
Not as much change as expected, but some movement towards what is probably expected to happen eventually (and some movement that will probablly be reversed eventually). The sprint for 3rd shakes the game up as much as anything today.

Rider changes:
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey +145 1 team
NIBALI Vincenzo +100 11 teams
VISCONTI Giovanni +100 1 team
URAN URAN Rigoberto +33 28 teams
FUGLSANG Jakob +23 4 teams
POZZOVIVO Domenico +17 9 teams
MAJKA Rafal +10 8 teams
BATTAGLIN Enrico +10 10 teams
...
WYSS Marcel -11 1 team
VERONA QUINTANILLA Carlos -12 1 team
RUFFONI Nicola -15 23 teams
EWAN Caleb -17 2 teams
KRUIJSWIJK Steven -20 9 teams
FIRSANOV Sergey -24 9 teams
PIRAZZI Stefano -28 10 teams
CICCONE Giulio -30 3 teams
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro -35 1 team
JUNGELS Bob -123 4 teams

Team point variations
1 AmisVelo 145
2 Comodoro 129
3 Jancouver 128
3 TomJelte 128
5 Search 118
6 Armchair_Cyclist 114
7 NairoQ 105
8 Trudgin 104
9 JustSomeGuy 102
10 GeraintTooFast 93
11 Rote_Laterne 84
12 Hugo87 77
13 Murali 75
14 Vladimir 68
15 18Valve 65
16 Minessa 49
17 Tigerion 47
18 GodChild 33
19 PremierAndrew 29
20 ArchieBoy 28
21 DJW 23
21 Kabete 23
21 Torcia86 23
24 JosephD 21
25 Crevaison 15
25 Not_My_Circus 15
27 Del1962 13
27 Hakkie2 13
29 Capt_Cavman 9
30 Scrool07 3
31 SemirS 2
32 LightBing 1
33 Laarsland -1
34 Yellow_Knight -7
35 Carlo_Algatrensig -9
36 Mellow_Velo -11
37 Murrjt -15
38 Kazistuta -17
39 LosBrolin -18
40 Joelsim -20
41 Caruut -25
42 GPBlanco -26
43 Postmanhat -32
44 Shalgo -37
45 Leadbelly -40
46 Josedin -45
47 Fauniera -54
48 BluesInTheBottle -97
49 Barmaher -125
50 BicycleBoy -134
51 Bbass -138
Collective_Wisdom 16

Projected standings:

Jungels hangs on to second place: three of his four Bs hang onto the virtual podium here. Comodoro, Murali and Tom-Jelte move into the top ten; AmisVelo, Trudgin, Geraint Toofast and Rote Laterne all move up ten places or more, while Fauniera suffers a double digit fall.

1 BluesInTheBottle 1141
2 BicycleBoy 1072
3 Barmaher 992
4 LightBing 917
5 GPBlanco 895
6 Jancouver 890
7 Comodoro 850
8 Murali 805
9 TomJelte 802
10 Bbass 797
11 Minessa 795
12 Not_My_Circus 780
13 Del1962 761
14 NairoQ 749
15 Search 728
16 18Valve 712
17 Torcia86 696
17 Vladimir 696
19 AmisVelo 686
19 Mellow_Velo 686
21 DJW 679
22 Scrool07 671
23 Crevaison 659
24 Kabete 648
25 Trudgin 607
26 LosBrolin 599
27 Yellow_Knight 575
28 SemirS 567
29 Kazistuta 550
30 Rote_Laterne 549
31 GeraintTooFast 548
32 Caruut 547
33 Laarsland 546
34 Capt_Cavman 540
34 Tigerion 540
36 Hakkie2 534
37 Postmanhat 529
38 Carlo_Algatrensig 527
39 Armchair_Cyclist 523
40 Hugo87 518
41 JustSomeGuy 497
42 Fauniera 482
43 ArchieBoy 474
44 Joelsim 469
45 Leadbelly 460
46 Murrjt 449
47 JosephD 434
48 Shalgo 428
49 PremierAndrew 417
50 Josedin 376
51 GodChild 373
Collective_Wisdom 437
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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Re: 2016 Giro CQ Game

21 May 2016 07:46

I just now realised that TomJelte and Comodoro also have the combo Nibali-Uran (just complemented with Majka, which is why I didn't notice). Now I've almost given up all hope and I think Comodoro is going to win this edition.
NairoQ
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Posts: 237
Joined: 05 Jan 2013 11:43

21 May 2016 10:38

Ruffoni, who DNSed, was also a very popular pick.

People with all 9 riders in their team and their rank as of stage 13:
Barmaher at 3
Caruut at 32
Murali at 8

Today's stage is going to be the next big test as far as retirement goes. Let's all hope that no more popular picks retire.

Edit*

Spoke too early. With NIEMIEC also retiring, only my team retains all 9 riders.
Soon, everyone would have lost someone in their team.
User avatar murali
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21 May 2016 16:15

9 of us with Kruijswijk
del1962
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Joined: 16 Oct 2012 17:20

21 May 2016 21:13

Stage 14 The Queen

Guaranteed Points
Some popular picks feature today

CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 70 2 teams
KRUIJSWIJK Steven 58 9 teams
PREIDLER Georg 25 0 team
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin 15 13 teams
NIBALI Vincenzo 10 11 teams
SIUTSOU Kanstantsin 7 1 team
ZAKARIN Ilnur 5 16 teams
MAJKA Rafal 3 8 teams
URAN URAN Rigoberto 2 28 teams
POZZOVIVO Domenico 1 9 teams


Nearly everyone gets on the scoreboard today:
1 Postmanhat 85 (Chaves and Atapuma)
2= Kabete, SemirS 75 (Kruijswijk, Atapuma, Uran)
4 Caruut 71 (Chaves, Pozzovivo)
5 18Valve 68 (Kruijswijk, Nibali)
6 GPBlanco 66 (Kruijswijk, Majka, Zakarin)
7 LightBing 65 (Kruijswijk, Uran, Zakarin)
8 Del1962 61 (Kruijswijk, Uran, Pozzovivo)
9 BicycleBoy, DJW 60 (Kruijswijk, Uran)
11 LosBrolin 59 (Kruijswijk, Pozzovivo)
12= NairoQ, AmisVelo 27
14= GeraintTooFast, Armchair_Cyclist 25
16 Crevaison 23
17= Yellow_Knight, Shalgo 20
19 Laarsland 18
20= Rote_Laterne, Capt_Cavman, PremierAndrew 17
23= Comodoro, TomJelte 15
25 Search 12
26= Hugo87, JustSomeGuy 10
28= Murali, Scrool07 8
30 Barmaher, Minessa, Mellow_Velo, Hakkie2 7
34 Vladimir 6
35= BluesInTheBottle, Bbass, Torcia86, Trudgin, Carlo_Algatrensig, Joelsim, Leadbelly 5
42 JosephD 3
43= Not_My_Circus, Kazistuta, Tigerion, ArchieBoy, GodChild 2
48= Jancouver, Fauniera 1
50= Murrjt, Josedin 0
Collective_Wisdom 7

GP Standings
Becoming less significant, but becoming a two horse race.
1 BluesInTheBottle 359
2 LightBing 349
3 Del1962 290
4 DJW 285
5 Yellow_Knight 279
6 Minessa 278
7 Fauniera 262
8 BicycleBoy 251
9 Laarsland 248
10 Mellow_Velo 239
10 Not_My_Circus 239
12 Murrjt 230
12 Search 230
14 Capt_Cavman 229
15 Joelsim 224
16 Carlo_Algatrensig 219
17 Tigerion 179
18 Bbass 167
18 GPBlanco 167
20 SemirS 166
21 NairoQ 160
22 Kabete 154
23 Barmaher 153
24 18Valve 150
25 Trudgin 127
26 Postmanhat 124
27 Josedin 123
28 LosBrolin 117
29 Caruut 116
29 Jancouver 116
31 AmisVelo 113
32 Comodoro 109
32 Leadbelly 109
34 Rote_Laterne 106
35 Crevaison 105
36 Murali 104
36 Scrool07 104
38 PremierAndrew 102
39 Shalgo 101
40 Armchair_Cyclist 98
41 GeraintTooFast 97
42 TomJelte 77
43 ArchieBoy 69
44 GodChild 65
45 Kazistuta 62
46 Hakkie2 60
47 Hugo87 57
48 JustSomeGuy 55
49 JosephD 52
50 Vladimir 42
51 Torcia86 36
Collective_Wisdom 59

Rider point changes:
We might be approaching something akin to final standings: there will probably be some riders with significant swings, but not as many as today.
KRUIJSWIJK Steven +318 9 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban +220 2 teams
ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin +80 13 teams
SIUTSOU Kanstantsin +78 1 team
NIBALI Vincenzo +70 11 teams
PIRAZZI Stefano +27 10 teams
MONFORT Maxime +24 1 team
DUPONT Hubert +18 1 team
URAN URAN Rigoberto +17 28 teams
HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian +16 2 teams
...
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor -10 5 teams
NIEMIEC Przemyslaw -15 15 teams
BERLATO Giacomo -15 1 team
FIRSANOV Sergey -16 9 teams
FORMOLO Davide -22 8 teams
VISCONTI Giovanni -45 1 team
HESJEDAL Ryder -96 9 teams
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey -258 1 team
JUNGELS Bob -262 4 teams


Some will be feeling far better about their teams tonight:

1 SemirS 400
2 Kabete 393
3 18Valve 388
4 GPBlanco 361
5 Del1962 344
5 LightBing 344
7 DJW 343
8 Postmanhat 255
9 Caruut 233
10 LosBrolin 209
11 AmisVelo 160
12 GeraintTooFast 153
13 Rote_Laterne 149
14 NairoQ 147
15 Armchair_Cyclist 143
16 Capt_Cavman 124
17 Yellow_Knight 92
18 Comodoro 91
19 TomJelte 90
20 Crevaison 80
21 Search 72
22 Shalgo 70
23 Laarsland 69
24 Hakkie2 57
25 JosephD 54
26 JustSomeGuy 45
27 BicycleBoy 42
28 Minessa 30
29 ArchieBoy 29
30 Vladimir 25
31 Murali 21
32 Murrjt 13
33 Mellow_Velo 6
34 Joelsim 5
35 Kazistuta 2
36 PremierAndrew 1
36 Tigerion 1
38 Fauniera -13
39 Carlo_Algatrensig -17
40 Scrool07 -24
41 Hugo87 -26
42 Trudgin -34
43 Torcia86 -63
44 GodChild -71
45 Josedin -96
46 Leadbelly -112
47 Not_My_Circus -117
48 Jancouver -216
49 BluesInTheBottle -242
50 Bbass -257
51 Barmaher -284
Collective_Wisdom 7


Is this potentially similar to what we can expect this time next week?
1 LightBing 1261
2 GPBlanco 1256
3 BicycleBoy 1114
4 Del1962 1105
5 18Valve 1100
6 Kabete 1041
7 DJW 1022
8 SemirS 967
9 Comodoro 941
10 BluesInTheBottle 899
11 NairoQ 896
12 TomJelte 892
13 AmisVelo 846
14 Murali 826
15 Minessa 825
16 LosBrolin 808
17 Search 800
18 Postmanhat 784
19 Caruut 780
20 Crevaison 739
21 Vladimir 721
22 Barmaher 708
23 GeraintTooFast 701
24 Rote_Laterne 698
25 Mellow_Velo 692
26 Jancouver 674
27 Yellow_Knight 667
28 Armchair_Cyclist 666
29 Capt_Cavman 664
30 Not_My_Circus 663
31 Scrool07 647
32 Torcia86 633
33 Laarsland 615
34 Hakkie2 591
35 Trudgin 573
36 Kazistuta 552
37 JustSomeGuy 542
38 Tigerion 541
39 Bbass 540
40 Carlo_Algatrensig 510
41 ArchieBoy 503
42 Shalgo 498
43 Hugo87 492
44 JosephD 488
45 Joelsim 474
46 Fauniera 469
47 Murrjt 462
48 PremierAndrew 418
49 Leadbelly 348
50 GodChild 302
51 Josedin 280
Collective_Wisdom 444

Yesterday's leader, Blues in the Bottle, falls to tenth, but Bicycle Boy, having Kruijswijk, survives the loss of Jungels' points rather better, holding on for third. LightBing and GPBlanco, the new top two, were already best positioned for any Jungels fall, but the new members of the top ten (18Valve, Kabete, DJW and SemirS) have moved up by between 11 and 20 places. Poor B'bass was 4th two days ago, now languishing in 39th place.
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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Re: 2016 Giro CQ Game

22 May 2016 09:09

Really hoping for a top 10 finish at the end, but wouldn't be disappointed with a top 20 after losing Landa, Geniez, Peraud, Niemiec and Ruffoni.

Has anyone lost 6 or more riders?
SemirS
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Posts: 11
Joined: 16 Aug 2015 15:49

22 May 2016 10:09

7 ppl with 4 riders left,
14 with 5 riders left.

SemirS, you are the highest placed among those with 4 riders left.
Del1962(4th) is the highest placed with 5 riders left.

and I with all 9 riders am placed 14th :P:P
User avatar murali
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22 May 2016 13:50

Withdrawals have had some impact on the teams: 14 of the 31 riders that are out were selected, but that includes 6 of the most popular 11 picks.
Peraud (33 teams)
Landa (28)
Ruffoni (23)
Pelucchi (18)
Kittel (16)
Niemiec (15)
Hesjedal (9)
Viviani (6)
Geniez (4)
Van Poppel (3)
Agnoli (3)
Fraile (2)
Ewan (2)
Berlato (1)

The impact is not always dire, however. Ruffoni, Berlato, Van Poppel and Agnoi were 50 points of each, and not necessarily included with any expectation of much return beyond the 15 points for finishing, and with an average spend of 388 points/rider, Peraud. Pelucchi and Niemiec were less than half a rider each in price, Fraile a bit more expensive. Not all of the DNFs have been a total let down either: Kittel had gained a respectable 168 guaranteed points for his teams which are not lost, and Ruffoni's points/investment return of 92% will not be beaten by very many riders. Ewan (62 points) and Viviani (41) at least made some contributions to their teams, but will be seen as expensive flops, as will Hesjedal and Geniez. But it is Landa's 28 teams that will suffer most: the 3 point return on a spend of 1102 points is no compensation at all.

Within the same category, sorted by game standing (Projected points)
9 riders remaining: Murali (14th)
8 riders: Comodoro (9th), Caruut
7 riders: GPBlanco (2nd), BicycleBoy, 18Valve, Kabete, NairoQ, TomJelte, Vladimir, Barmaher, Mellow_Velo, Jancouver, Trudgin
6 riders: LightBing (1st), BluesInTheBottle, AmisVelo, Postmanhat, Rote_Laterne, Yellow_Knight, Capt_Cavman, Not_My_Circus, Scrool07, Torcia86, Hakkie2, Kazistuta, JustSomeGuy, Bbass, Shalgo, JosephD
5 riders: Del1962 (4th), DJW, Minessa, Crevaison, GeraintTooFast, Armchair_Cyclist, Tigerion, Carlo_Algatrensig, ArchieBoy, Hugo87, Joelsim, Fauniera, Murrjt, Josedin
4 riders: SemirS (8th), LosBrolin, Search, Laarsland, PremierAndrew, Leadbelly, GodChild and Collective Wisdom.

18Valve, Kabete, DJW and SemirS hold onto places 5-8 despite having lost Landa: Loss of Viviani does stop Bicycle Boy from holding 3rd, and Geniez's failure has not stopped Del1962 from being 4th. And Kittel's DNF doesn't avoid LightBing from being in the lead.
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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22 May 2016 21:41

Stage 15 Mountain Time Trial

Guaranteed Points
Foliforov may hav surprised many observers, but at least 4 of us had seen some potential in him for the race, and even more trusted in his team captain.

FOLIFOROV Alexander 70 4 teams
KRUIJSWIJK Steven 58 9 teams
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 25 1 team
FIRSANOV Sergey 15 9 teams
SCARPONI Michele 10 0 team
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban 7 2 teams
ZAKARIN Ilnur 5 16 teams
DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 3 0 team
JUNGELS Bob 2 4 teams
MAJKA Rafal 1 8 teams

Murrjt's top stage score from Stage 3 is matched
1 18Valve 128 (Foloiforov, Kruijswijk)
2 Kazistuta 95 (Foloiforov, Valverde)
3 Bbass 77 ( (Foloiforov, Zakarin, Jungels))
4 BicycleBoy 75 (Kruijswijk, Firsanov, Jungels)
5 Search 70 (Foloiforov)
6 GPBlanco 64 (Kruijswijk, Zakarin, Majka)
7 LightBing 63 (Kruijswijk, Zakarin)
8= Del1962, DJW, Kabete, LosBrolin, SemirS 58 (Kruijswijk)
13= Barmaher, Caruut 22
15= Crevaison, Mellow_Velo, Shalgo 20
18= Fauniera, Josedin, Not_My_Circus 15
21 Postmanhat 7
22 Scrool07 6
23= Rest of the Zakarins 5
31 BluesInTheBottle 3
32 Five more Majkas 1

GP Standings

1 LightBing 412
2 BluesInTheBottle 362
3 Del1962 348
4 DJW 343
5 BicycleBoy 326
6 Search 300
7 Yellow_Knight 284
8 Minessa 283
9 18Valve 278
10 Fauniera 277
11 Mellow_Velo 259
12 Not_My_Circus 254
13 Laarsland 249
14 Bbass 244
15 GPBlanco 231
16 Murrjt 230
17 Capt_Cavman 229
17 Joelsim 229
19 Carlo_Algatrensig 224
19 SemirS 224
21 Kabete 212
22 Tigerion 179
23 Barmaher 175
23 LosBrolin 175
25 NairoQ 160
26 Kazistuta 157
27 Caruut 138
27 Josedin 138
29 Trudgin 132
30 Postmanhat 131
31 Crevaison 125
32 Shalgo 121
33 Jancouver 116
34 Leadbelly 114
35 AmisVelo 113
36 Comodoro 110
36 Scrool07 110
38 Murali 109
39 Rote_Laterne 106
40 PremierAndrew 102
41 Armchair_Cyclist 98
42 GeraintTooFast 97
43 TomJelte 78
44 ArchieBoy 69
45 GodChild 65
45 Hakkie2 65
47 Hugo87 57
48 JustSomeGuy 55
49 JosephD 52
50 Vladimir 43
51 Torcia86 37
Collective_Wisdom 64

Projected Points

Rider point changes
Nibali and Uran were, individually or jointly, the big hope of many teams: that hope is somewhat undermined today:
FOLIFOROV Alexander +77 4 teams
CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban +67 2 teams
KRUIJSWIJK Steven +63 9 teams
JUNGELS Bob +54 4 teams
ZAKARIN Ilnur +30 16 teams
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro +26 1 team
MAJKA Rafal +26 8 teams
VISCONTI Giovanni +20 1 team
FIRSANOV Sergey +17 9 teams
...
SABATINI Fabio -15 1 team
AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey -52 1 team
URAN URAN Rigoberto -53 28 teams
NIBALI Vincenzo -60 11 teams

Team gains and losses
1 Bbass 160
2 GPBlanco 106
3 BicycleBoy 81
4 18Valve 80
5 Caruut 72
6 LosBrolin 63
7 Scrool07 52
8 Kazistuta 50
8 Trudgin 50
10 Barmaher 47
10 Postmanhat 47
12 Shalgo 40
13 LightBing 38
14 Carlo_Algatrensig 30
14 Joelsim 30
16 Leadbelly 28
17 BluesInTheBottle 27
18 Laarsland 22
18 Yellow_Knight 22
20 Josedin 17
21 Fauniera 15
22 Del1962 10
23 DJW 6
24 Kabete 4
24 SemirS 4
26 Mellow_Velo -6
27 Crevaison -12
27 Murrjt -12
29 Minessa -27
30 Vladimir -31
31 Hakkie2 -35
32 Not_My_Circus -36
32 Search -36
34 Torcia86 -39
35 Murali -42
36 GodChild -57
36 Tigerion -57
38 Jancouver -58
39 PremierAndrew -59
40 Hugo87 -60
41 ArchieBoy -61
42 JosephD -63
43 JustSomeGuy -64
43 Rote_Laterne -64
45 GeraintTooFast -66
46 Capt_Cavman -67
47 Armchair_Cyclist -70
48 TomJelte -87
49 Comodoro -89
50 AmisVelo -123
50 NairoQ -123
Collective_Wisdom -23

Standings

The top two teams swap places, as did those in 4th and 5th. Bigger rises are seen by Los Brolin (16th to 10th) and Caruut (19th to 11th), but B'bass recovers fom the steep fall I observed yesterday and rises 17 places.

1 GPBlanco 1362
2 LightBing 1299
3 BicycleBoy 1195
4 18Valve 1180
5 Del1962 1115
6 Kabete 1045
7 DJW 1028
8 SemirS 971
9 BluesInTheBottle 926
10 LosBrolin 871
11 Caruut 852
11 Comodoro 852
13 Postmanhat 831
14 TomJelte 805
15 Minessa 798
16 Murali 784
17 NairoQ 773
18 Search 764
19 Barmaher 755
20 Crevaison 727
21 AmisVelo 723
22 Bbass 700
23 Scrool07 699
24 Vladimir 690
25 Yellow_Knight 689
26 Mellow_Velo 686
27 Laarsland 637
28 GeraintTooFast 635
29 Rote_Laterne 634
30 Not_My_Circus 627
31 Trudgin 623
32 Jancouver 616
33 Kazistuta 602
34 Capt_Cavman 597
35 Armchair_Cyclist 596
36 Torcia86 594
37 Hakkie2 556
38 Carlo_Algatrensig 540
39 Shalgo 538
40 Joelsim 504
41 Fauniera 484
41 Tigerion 484
43 JustSomeGuy 478
44 Murrjt 450
45 ArchieBoy 442
46 Hugo87 432
47 JosephD 425
48 Leadbelly 376
49 PremierAndrew 359
50 Josedin 297
51 GodChild 245
Collective_Wisdom 421

The team that tops our popular picks table is the lowest scoring.
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22 May 2016 23:13

thank you AC. i think your analysis has highlighted the crucial aspect of game: returns matter, not whether your team completes or not.
User avatar murali
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Re:

23 May 2016 06:26

murali wrote:thank you AC. i think your analysis has highlighted the crucial aspect of game: returns matter, not whether your team completes or not.


But if your pick is a GC contender, or a cheap pick looking for top 15 GC, then finishing is essential to getting the points. If you have picked a sprinter/breakaway specialist/TTer who might hold the leader's jersey for several days before the mountains, then the 15 points for reaching the end of three weeks can be fairly incidental. But they might miss out on week 3 stages that would suit them.

Perhaps a crafty pick would have been a cheap sprinter who can hang around to place well in week three sprints after most sprinters have gone home. We'll see soon if anyone found one.
User avatar Armchair cyclist
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Location: East of England, West of Ireland

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