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The 2017 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

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Re: Re:

04 Jan 2017 11:39

LaFlorecita wrote:
MADRAZO wrote:My team:

BONIFAZIO Niccolo 347 (clear nr. 1 sprinter for Bahrain, should mean he can improve a lot and also has the talent to do so)

I hadn't thought about that, damn. I switched him for Ewan because I had too many points left :o
Edit: what about Colbrelli, though?


Colbrelli is a great rider but I would be quite surpriced if they ride for him before Bonifazio in any flat sprints.
MADRAZO
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04 Jan 2017 11:40

My team.

Fernando Gaviria (833) – When I see that riders as Coquard and Nizzolo score +1300 points, then I’m sure Gaviria is capable of scoring more. Amazing rider, very fast, survives hilly stages, great engine (MSR) and a full road season this year. Winning races such as Gent-Wevelgem, Dwars door Vlaanderen are all within his possibilities, so scoring a load of points in the Flanders Classics is what I hope for as an ‘extra’.
Fabio Aru (777) – Not a big fan of Aru, but he should certainly score more than last year.
Michal Kwiatkowski (611) – A lot of doubts about him. Everybody knows what he can achieve in a good season, but I don’t know if it will work out with Team Sky. Let’s hope for the best, but I won’t be surprised if he underperforms again this season.
Alexey Lutsenko (595) – A pick with the heart, not a rational pick although I believe very much in him. To be a good pick, he needs to score around 1000 points and that will be very, very hard. He really needs to have his real breakthrough season with performances in the biggest races.
Steven Kruijswijk (594) – Lost a lot of points in the last Giro stage, and had to quit early in the Vuelta. Didn’t think a lot about this pick, but when I reconsider this, maybe he isn’t necessary. That said, if he has the same level as last year in the Giro, he’s a real GC contender.
John Degenkolb (550) – No brainer. Back to his best this year.
Mikel Landa (479) – Another no brainer, although I don’t know if Landa + Team Sky is a good combination. Anyway, one of the best climbers of the peloton so I couldn’t left him out of my team.
Robert Gesink (369) – In the past, there was always something ‘wrong’ with Gesink. Sickness, family problems, … I have a feeling this is all behind him, after his great win in the Vuelta last year he seems much more relaxed. Starts his season in TDU, so I hope he can score there already some points.
Moreno Moser (281) – Scored once +1000 points, but this is already more than 5 (!) years ago. Great all-round rider, can almost do everything… and maybe that’s his weakness. I hope a new environment will do him well, and he can find again his 2012 form.
Elia Viviani (275) – Focus again on road racing. Good sprinter, I don’t rate him very high, nonetheless a must-have.
Taylor Phinney (232) – Don’t know what to expect from him. When he’s again at his best in the time trials, he could be a useful asset in a CQ game. Maybe he could have some results in the classics too, but I’m not sure if he is (already) capable of that.
Stefan Küng (225) – Two seasons as a professional cyclist, and two times he was sidelined for a long time. Great talent, no doubt about that so he was a certain pick for me.
Lars Boom (232) – Wants to focus again on his time trials, which is a good thing. He knows that his time at Astana wasn’t the best, and he seems really motivated to reach his old level again – which should mean he is a contender for the cobble classics, especially Roubaix.
Luka Mezgec (175) – Not a great year last year, but he should have more opportunities this year with Matthews leaving the Orica team.
Egan Bernal (159) – A new sensation in the making? His first year as a road racer was very good. I hope he gained enough experience last year, so he can fight for victories this year. Maybe it’s a year too early for big points, but I had to pick him.
Carlos Betancur (108) – I’m a firm believer of Betancur. I expected more of him last year. Once again, I think he has too much talent to ignore him. Please Movistar, bring him to Europe soon enough and he can score easily +500 points.
Alexis Gougeard (107) – Those who saw Gougeard in Omloop het Nieuwsblad last year, know enough. Should be able to score a lot of points in the French circuit.
Daniel Martinez (87) – It was him or Robert Power. After seeing the popularity of Power, it could be a wrong decision. I didn’t pick Power because I think he will have work duties for Chaves, Gerrans and Yates, while Martinez could ride for himself. Showed already promising things, let’s hope he has his breakthrough season this year.
Benat Intxausti (79) – Less than 20 race days last year, that says enough.
Simone Ponzi (78) – Don’t know why he didn’t score big last year, but I couldn’t leave him out of my team.
Yury Trofimov (62) – After years with Katusha, he could ride for himself now. A tenth place in the Vuelta is already enough to be a good pick.
Guillaume Van Keirsbulck (61) – Lefevre complained about his work ethics. I hope he learned his lesson and realizes it’s time to step up. Has the perfect opportunity to do this at Wanty.
Kris Boeckmans (60) – Last year was about getting back in the peloton, now he should contest the sprints again.
Edoardo Zardini (48) – Bad crash last year, let’s hope he is really recovered.
Matteo Pelucchi (45) – Very fast, but I don’t know if he will get a lot of opportunities at Bora.
Stijn Devolder (30) – No results the last years, but he did some amazing jobs as a gregario of Cancellara. I think he still has it, and one big result (Ronde van België, Driedaagse, …) could result in a nice profit.
Michael Van Staeyen (27) – Not the greatest rider, but when he can sprint he is fast. 200 points should be possible.
Julian Arredondo (17) – For 17 points I had to include him.
Owain Doull (7) – Don’t know much about Doull. He’s a talent for sure, and 7 points for a Team Sky rider should result in profit.
Eduard Vorganov (6) – Rides now for Minsk Cycling Club, a team where two riders scored +200 points last year. I hope he can do the same.
Richard Carapaz (5) – Let’s see what he can do in his first (full) pro year in Europe.
Adriano Malori (2) – No explanation needed.
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Re: Re:

04 Jan 2017 12:26

LaFlorecita wrote:
Tigerion wrote:MEYER Cameron
Another heart pick but I feel his talent is much greater than he showed last yer


Hate to be the one to tell you this - but he's retired :(


And I think, Szmyd is too
Nicosix
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04 Jan 2017 13:22

Seeing all the other teams actually makes me even more confident in my own team. I've come up with a slightly different strategy from the one that got me 4th last year, so let's see where that brings me. I also gain confidence from my view that skidmark's team looks a bit less convincing this year than last.

From being 1st in the popularity score last year, I'm down to 61st this year! :eek: This was expected though. It's a consequence of my new strategy. The main point is that I'm looking to have as few "ifs" in my team as possible. None of the "if he returns to form", "if he recovers properly", "if he gets more chances". I see a lot of people have been caught by what I (rightly or wrongly) see as the "2015 trap" (riders like Intxausti, Boeckmans etc). Some of these guys will do well, and some won't. Hopefully my less "conditional" team proves stronger on aggregate.

Here are some thoughts on the ones I didn't pick:

DEGENKOLB John 115
VIVIANI Elia 103

MALORI Adriano 94
A neurologically damaged rider who couldn't finish a race in his comeback? Not in my team. I really, really hope he'll recover and do well, but I don't believe in it enough to pick him. Also, one of my main considerations this year was this: The only type of rider who doesn't have more available points because of the category changes are TT specialists. In addition, there are no Olympics, no Paris-Nice or Giro prologue, Three Days of West Flanders is gone, still no Bayern Rundfahrt, worlds TT has a steep climb. Add to that the fact that TT specialists generally don't score a lot of CQ points anyway.

ARU Fabio 91

INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 84
I've been following his recovery on his website, and he's only recently started riding again. He's nowhere near the form required for a strong spring, which is where his only chances for significant points are. If he doesn't perform in the early Spanish stage races, there's not much left for him due to domestique duties and unsuitable races. I'm a big Intxausti fan, but I don't think he's a good pick.

LANDA MEANA Mikel 81
(Okay, I did pick Landa, but I don't think he's such an obiously great pick as some others make it out. If he doesn't score big in the Giro and the races leading up to it, he'll be a horrible pick. Giro is basically the cut-off, due to team priorities and the fact that he's said in interviews that he's unable to reach great shape in the second half of the season. Couldn't miss out though.)

KÖNIG Leopold 80
POWER Robert 78

GOUGEARD Alexis 74
Yes, he had a great 2015, but that is the absolute maximum of what a strong rouleur guy can do points-wise. More often than not, riders of Gougeard's ilk have seasons like 2016. Will most likely not do quite as bad, but too much risk.

DOULL Owain 72

ARREDONDO MORENO Julian David 71
I think it was MADRAZO who wrote: "if he manages to fix his seating problems". Exactly. Didn't risk him last year, and see no reason to do so again.

KWIATKOWSKI Michal 60
He hasn't actually been consistently good since spring 2014. That's almost three years ago. Can't see things changing this year, and anyway he's in a team with plenty of guys able to do his job in all scenarios, especially now with Rosa on board and Poels taking big steps in LBL.

PELUCCHI Matteo 55
The guy who makes Kittel look like Pantani. The World's least durable sprinter had plenty of chances last year and didn't take them. Will have nowhere near as many opportunities in Bora.

GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando 52
BENOOT Tiesj 51
SPILAK Simon 49
MAMYKIN Matvey 48
VAN KEIRSBULCK Guillaume 47

BOOM Lars 46
Surprised he's that popular. I hardly though about him. Might do okay in the cobbled classics, but that won't score him bucketloads of points. With his renewed cyclocross focus, he was never in the running for me.

BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley 46
Did great in the races he got to do last year, but I think he's too young to perform in bigger races, and with no one-day potential, he will just not podium enough small stage races to make him a great pick.

KÜNG Stefan 45
See the Malori explanation about TT specialists. Huge potential for the classics, but it won't be his turn yet.

BOECKMANS Kris 45
Didn't have a convincing comeback season, and really, who's expecting him to get any chances whatsoever with *take deep breath* Greipel, Roelandts, Debusschere, Hofland, Van der Sande, Wouters all potentially ahead of him in the line.

TROFIMOV Yury 44
Okay, I admit it's slightly risky to leave Trofimov out, but I can really envisage a frustrating season where he doesn't do a great deal. No good reason for being crap in 2016, and generally it seems like Russian GC guys who've been around for a while decline at an early age (Menchov, Karpets, Petrov, Efimkin).

DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd 44
The guy who's now taken over the lead as the overall most picked rider ever. That says it all really. "It has to be this year, no next year, no the year after!" Will have a similar early program to 2016, but he could actually end up being a decent pick if he ends up doing the American August races. I just didn't want to gamble on that.

PONZI Simone 43
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04 Jan 2017 13:46

Some thoughts on my rare riders:

Fabio Felline: he screwed a large part of his season with his Amstel crash but showed before and afterwards he is a strong versatile rider. Maybe too versatile if he will focus on GC ambitions.

Primoz Roglic: fanboy pick. I hope he will lead the team at some one week races plus he TT at the WC will suit him.

Enrico Battaglin: had an interesting first season with Lotto-Jumbo but did not do very much point wise. I hope it will change this season. However he has not been a 'scorer' in the past.

Ramon Sinkeldam: Is very suited for smaller sprints plus had a nice Paris Roubaix last year.

Riccardo Zoidl: I hope he will find his old form in smaller stage races.

Quentin Jauregui: 2015 was promising last year worse. I hope he will score in the countless French 1.1 races.

Juan Sebastian Molano: I hope he will score in smaller sprint stages like last year's Vuelta Comunidad de Madrid.
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Re:

04 Jan 2017 13:48

Squire wrote:Here are some thoughts on the ones I didn't pick:

[BOOM Lars 46
Surprised he's that popular. I hardly though about him. Might do okay in the cobbled classics, but that won't score him bucketloads of points. With his renewed cyclocross focus, he was never in the running for me.


He is not really focussing on cyclocross, he uses it as a deluxe training.
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04 Jan 2017 13:49

I agree a lot with all the thoughts from you Squire despite picking several of the riders mentioned. I guess I just did not listen as much to my bad fealings about Kwiatkowski, Dombrowski, Intxausti and Arredondo as you did to dare skip them. I am also mostly surpriced that Malori is as popular as he is and its quite rare for this game that I have not included a top 3 rider in the popularity ranking. Ofcourse there are no risk picking him and he could turn out a great pick and therefore was a likely pick for many, but using a spot is always a big cost, and I agree a lot with Squire's thoughts about his chances after the severe setback and with the limited opportunities. I personally mostly regret not getting Gaviria included in my team and I guess that could perhaps have meant Malori could have become an option in that case depending on who would have been sacrificed.
MADRAZO
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04 Jan 2017 14:00

@Squire

your reasoning is understandable, yet you included Power who is coming out of an injury too :)

BTW looking at your team, out of the pricey picks, I think your team will "make or break" based on Benoot and Simon Yates. While Benoot is exciting and strong, I dont see him doubling his points at 588. He kind of reminds me of Sep Vanmarcke. Super strong, but cant win or much. (His best season was 887)

Danny Van Poppel was also on my list, but just like Benoot, I just cant see him doubling his points at 477 but still more likely than Benoot.

As per Spilak & Julian Simon, both already in their 30's and while they both still can score, they are on the decline IMO. Actually, I'm quite surprised to see Spilak to be so popular at 301. I just dont see him doubling his points and if I had to take a second tier sprint off the Katusha list, I would take Zabel and while he was on my team every year, I even gave up on him.

The rest of you team is OK and time will tell.

JMHO
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04 Jan 2017 14:20

Robert Power proved that he's back with his performance at Japan Cup though.
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04 Jan 2017 14:20

My team:
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto 1698
ARU Fabio 777
EWAN Caleb 552
DEGENKOLB John 550
THEUNS Edward 405
SPILAK Simon 301
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas 282
VIVIANI Elia 275
KÖNIG Leopold 264
KÜNG Stefan 225
MAMYKIN Matvey 199
GAUDU David 196
DILLIER Silvan 190
ALBANESE Vincenzo 159
MACHADO Tiago Jose Pinto 140
BOHLI Tom 120
BRESCHEL Matti 116
GOUGEARD Alexis 107
CIMOLAI Davide 106
PAGE Dylan 101
MAS NICOLAU Enric 92
CONSONNI Simone 89
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 79
PONZI Simone 78
POWER Robert 77
VENDRAME Andrea 65
TROFIMOV Yury 62
BOECKMANS Kris 60
ZARDINI Edoardo 48
GANNA Filippo 40
MINALI Riccardo 26
DOULL Owain 7
MALORI Adriano 2

My rarest picks appear to be
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto (2 picks) - No explanation necessary :p but I have good hopes he can at least equal his 2016 score if he stays on the bike, which would be good enough for me
PAGE Dylan (2 picks) - He was a late swap. He's a decent sprinter and is still young, so should have room for improvement. He's signed for Caja Rural, I think he can be successful in the Spanish races.
VENDRAME Andrea (5 picks) - He seems to be a sprinting talent and young Italian sprinters are always a good bet, with the huge number of one-day races on the Italian calendar.
BOHLI Tom (7 picks) - Young Schweizers appear to be my latest obsession as I have 4 of them. Hopefully one will have a breakthrough season :)
THEUNS Edward (13 picks) - To be honest I am sort of surprised he was only picked by 12 others, he was one of the first on my list. Granted, he'll have to share his races with Degenkolb but he missed all fall races last season after a crash at the Tour and with some more experience under his belt he should have decent room for improval.

Just for fun I looked at my rare picks last season, all of them besides Rosa and Alberto improved quite a bit :p
Venturini 92 > 230; Offredo 53 > 174; Ruffoni 64 > 254; Craddock 102 > 317; Zurlo 45 > 122; Hardy 44 > 167; Vermeulen 8 > 72; Dassonville 5 > 64

Looking at my team, I am happy with my "moderately popular" riders (roughly between 15 and 50 picks, let's say), especially with Navardauskas, Machado and Minali. The first two could double/triple their score and Minali is a big sprinting talent and Astana doesn't really have any other sprinters, so he should get a lot of freedom. I'm hoping they take him to Langkawi :p

I've got most of the very popular riders, out of the ones I don't have I really only regret Gaviria, I also feel he could have a huge season but I couldn't find the points to select him unfortunately.
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Re:

04 Jan 2017 14:22

Jancouver wrote:As per Spilak & Julian Simon, both already in their 30's and while they both still can score, they are on the decline IMO. Actually, I'm quite surprised to see Spilak to be so popular at 301. I just dont see him doubling his points and if I had to take a second tier sprint off the Katusha list, I would take Zabel and while he was on my team every year, I even gave up on him.

Fair point about Spilak but he isn't a sprinter, he's a GC rider :) he has a few top-5 finishes in stage races with bad weather, like Pais Vasco, Romandie and Suisse.
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Re:

04 Jan 2017 14:36

LaFlorecita wrote:

VENDRAME Andrea (5 picks) - He seems to be a sprinting talent and young Italian sprinters are always a good bet, with the huge number of one-day races on the Italian calendar.


Vendrame is not a sprinter, he is one for the hilly races and certainly a talent.
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Re: Re:

04 Jan 2017 14:37

LaFlorecita wrote:
Jancouver wrote:As per Spilak & Julian Simon, both already in their 30's and while they both still can score, they are on the decline IMO. Actually, I'm quite surprised to see Spilak to be so popular at 301. I just dont see him doubling his points and if I had to take a second tier sprint off the Katusha list, I would take Zabel and while he was on my team every year, I even gave up on him.

Fair point about Spilak but he isn't a sprinter, he's a GC rider :) he has a few top-5 finishes in stage races with bad weather, like Pais Vasco, Romandie and Suisse.


I guess you you are right on Spilak. For some reason, in my eyes, he was always the "climbing sprinter" :)

BTW I like your team. Considering you always have to include Alberto, your purchase power is somewhat limited. Last year we were neck to neck the whole season and as we both pick quite a bit with our hearts, I can see the same little battle this year. :cool:
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04 Jan 2017 14:38

If you don't want to have "what ifs", you shouldn't pick Spilak, because he heavily depends on "what if it's bad weather" :p

Probably a good pick if it's bad weather in spring though ;)
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Re: Re:

04 Jan 2017 14:39

fauniera wrote:
LaFlorecita wrote:

VENDRAME Andrea (5 picks) - He seems to be a sprinting talent and young Italian sprinters are always a good bet, with the huge number of one-day races on the Italian calendar.


Vendrame is not a sprinter, he is one for the hilly races and certainly a talent.

I don't know much about him, but I saw he finished 4th in the Coppa Sabatini and 2nd in Piccolo Giro di Lombardia - I hope he will have a good season :)
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Re: The 2017 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

04 Jan 2017 14:42

Yeah me too, i have him in my youth team. ;)

But Italian talents are dangerous, Barbin never really got going and Villella needed years to get to a good level.
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04 Jan 2017 14:48

Now we just need the bloody racing to start.
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04 Jan 2017 14:58

Jancouver, I hear you :) (BTW, I think your team could do even better this year than last)

Let me just give my reasoning behind the ones you have doubts about (and a few others too).

Yates was pretty obvious to me. Young and developing, and if he scored that amount of points in two months, imagine what he could do in a year. He should be a 1000+ rider.

The huge difference between Vanmarcke and Benoot is that Benoot is only 22, and has plenty of room for development. He's also a better climber and sprinter, which opens up plenty of possibilities Vanmarcke doesn't have. He also lost a very lucrative part of the season to injury. I don't need Benoot to double his points. 800-900 will be great, and among the guys in his price range, I think he's one of the most likely to reach that. Chances for a bust season are almost zero.

What makes Power different from Intxausti, Malori etc. is that he performed very well in the autumn. He did some super strong domestique work in the Tour of Britain, and should also have a season-by-season development far greater than the Movistar guys.

I love the uniqueness of the Van Poppel pick. He's a bit like Benoot; a safe and young option for a good increase. Lost most of the spring and the worlds/late season to illness, and proved super consistent in between. Compared to someone like Bonifazio (who I think is very overhyped), he's even competitive against the pure sprinters. Should have more chances in the hardman sprinter races now that Swift is gone, and don't forget he has a lot more points available in the new WT races (Frankfurt, London, perhaps even some of the easier cobbled classics).

Spilak didn't actually have a particularly bad season, just some slightly lower placings than usual, which translated to a lot less points. Also, his late season was non-existant, and even though he's never great after June, he should get some more points. I think Zakarin won't get as much in the way this year, and Purito gone is also helpful.

Julien Simon is my secret weapon and only unique pick! I almost picked him last year, becuase he had a disrupted pre-season and an unsuitable program in 2015. When he had 218 points by April despite a disrupted pre-season in 2016 too, I regretted leaving him out. But then he got injured and the rest of the season was lost. Now his twitter is filled with pictures of training rides and gym work, he's really motivated, and there are now a plethora of early French races that suits him perfectly, in addition to all the races he couldn't do later in the 2016 season.

Some other rare picks in my team:
Amaury Capiot (309 pts, 7 picks) is another secret weapon. Almost every year, Topsport Vlaanderen have a guy score 1000+ points. Capiot perfectly fits the profile of the two previous ones, Van Asbroeck and Theuns. Similar age, skillset and progression, and with a few of the heavy-hitters from last year gone from the team, it should be all-in for Capiot all year. Considered Roy Jans as well, but he's a bit more unreliable and more expensive. Could maybe have picked both.

Jaime Roson (178 pts, 9 picks) is a great talent and will benefit from the Caja Rural exodus. Should get points in the early Spanish stage races where he was still finding his feet last year, and with all the easy opportunities later in the year, the points should be flowing in, hopefully capped off with a Vuelta stage win. Could've won the Tour of Turkey in 2016 without all the crosswind shenanigans, so his potential score was bigger even last year. Who needs Trofimov? ;)

Jonathan Hivert (173 pts, 7 picks) is surprisingly rare. Thought he would be pretty obvious. Injury-plagued last season, and will now be the best puncheur in Direct Energie. With Coquard being given the top gigs, Hivert should wreak havoc in the smaller French hilly races.

I was hoping Vincenzo Albanese (159 pts, 24 picks) would be more rare. The strength of this kid is incredible. He has been riding solo away from pelotons all season long, and one of the most impressive performances was one he didn't win. In the U23 EC he did almost all the work in the three-man breakaway, then casually rode Artem Nych and the Avenir winner off his wheel on the last climb, before being caught by the pack 100m from the line. He's even got this confident Pozzato attitude. Albanese could be a revelation in Italian one-day races already this year. My only worry is that every year, only a couple of riders his age score more than 300 points. But if Albanese is the new Sagan, I'm not gonna miss out.

Andrea Vendrame (65 pts, 5 picks) is a bit like Albanese. A bit less talented, but a better climber. Has been super consistent with podium places all over the Italian amateur scene, despite being hit by a car in training early in the year. With the weird schedule of Androni, he should have lots of opportunities in small races. Gavazzi can't do everything.

When Meersman had to retire, it made Boris Vallée (83 pts, 6 picks) a lot more viable. The 2nd best sprinter and only Belgian rider on a PCT team that will increase its focus on Belgian races. The young Vallée had some mixed results last year. His good ones came in low-point .2 races, so it won't take much improvement for him to increase his score a lot.

Lastly, Vorganov (6 pts, 10 picks) will be a gold mine on the Asian and Eastern European calendar, and Van Rooy (0 pts, 6 picks) has had the same kind of problems as Intxausti, but has been back on the bike for a longer time, and has a lot more chances to ride for himself.
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Re: Re:

04 Jan 2017 14:59

Jancouver wrote:
I guess you you are right on Spilak. For some reason, in my eyes, he was always the "climbing sprinter" :)

BTW I like your team. Considering you always have to include Alberto, your purchase power is somewhat limited. Last year we were neck to neck the whole season and as we both pick quite a bit with our hearts, I can see the same little battle this year. :cool:

Hopefully again in the upper regions of the ranking :lol:
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04 Jan 2017 15:18

Only one of my picks was rare (<10 teams). I'll give my team an overlook later in the day.
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