The 2017 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

[rote_laterne]

CHEUNG King Lok
Greenedge are generally good at getting value from new signing

Last thing I read he's gonna concentrate on the track.

I just saw that I have 10 riders which were picked less than 10 times and I'm actually surprised by that in a few cases.

DENIFL Stefan: This is one of the riders I expected to be way more popular. He is in a team in which he will probably always have a free role, he has shown great climbing in the last year but was often unfortunate and he had a pretty bad season last year. He won't be a crucial pick but I'm confident that he at least won't be a bad pick.

Riders picked between 5 and 10 times:

ZOIDL Riccardo: Has become worse since he joined a WT team, but now he is back in his CONTI team with which he scored 455 points in 2013, so I think he could be pretty good again this year.

MÜHLBERGER Gregor: He is a great talent with a mediocre last season. He should be a decent pick.

DEIGNAN Philip: Why have only 5 people picked a sky rider with only 13 points last year? He basically only needs to participate in two or three TTT's and will have 13 points again. I don't expect him to score much more than 100 points, (although thats possible) but he would already be a great pick with only 50 points which I think is more likely than not.

Denifl should have easily doubled his 2015 score last year and didn't. Zoidl I'm not sure about his motivation. He reached WT, he wasn't spectacular in Croatia last year. Mühlberger I have more hopes, I'm just not too sure he'll get his chances with german talents and new stars in the team. That said, I wish all these riders a successfull season.

Deignan is not a good pick IMO as his ceiling is not very high. For 13 points I don't want a save return, I want big or nothing. But then who am I to judge, you did far better in your first game than me last year.

[EvansIsTheBest]

BOUDAT Thomas 10 - Late addition to my team. Don't know if he will skip track racing this year, but should anyway get lots of good results on the flatter French races.

I remember he said he was done with track after Rio, he was really bummed to not finish with a medal. With the focus on the road and an additional year of seasoning, I expect him to take a jump forward on the french domestic scene (especially with Coquard off doing his thing in the bigger races). I'm really surprised he wasn't picked more often considering how similar his background is compared Coquard who was a huge success in his post-London year. He's not quite the same level of prospect but he doesn't need to be to net a nice return.

Gaviria - I agree that he is a rider easily capable of 2000 points. But then I realised he is in a team with Kittel, Boonen and Gilbert (to name a few), which means that not always it will be his race to shine. Given he is relatively expensive already, it is quite risky pick. If his cost was 500-600, he would be in my team.

I didn't pick Moscon last year because even though he looked like a big talent there were a lot of more established riders in front of him (I promised myself not to make the mistake of leaving out a potential star because he might get lost in the shuffle again). Having a bunch of good climbers at Movistar didn't prevent Quintana from making his mark. immediately. At the end of the day, talent shines through and if the guy is good enough, like Gaviria so obviously is, he'll make his own opportunities. Besides, I'm not really seeing a threat to his leadership on his team.
Unfortunately, Gilbert looks like he's winding down, Kittel and Gaviria have yet to race together (clearly Quick Step managment doesn't believe that doubling down with both riders in the same race is a smart way to use their best assets) and I'm not taking Boonen, my favorite current rider, over Gaviria in any race at this particular time in their careers except PR and maybe RVV which are probably a year or two too soon for Gaviria anyway. Actually, I believe Alaphilippe could be his biggest threat internally especially on hilly races which are going to stretch Gaviria's climbing abilities.

Rarest riders:
LATOUR Pierre (6x) 645
2016 was a year of ups and downs for him, but at the end of La Vuelta he showed me his true face. With remarkable recovery and panache, on top of an excellent engine, he has all it takes to become a top GC rider. Similar to Bardet 3 years back, he has a high score and seems to have plenty of competition within his own team. However, with Pozzovivo getting older and Péraud retiring, a score above 1000 is not out of the question.

I like the Bardet comparaison. Both hard-working guys who get incrementally better every year. Having a GT under his belt is going to do him a ton of good I feel (and I really liked how he reacted to having a tough final week). As he's a rider I had last year, I followed him more closely than most probably and I feel it's important to point out he lead the Tour de Suisse before having to withdraw with bronchitis. Honestly, he should already have a bunch more points on the board and it seems like he's starting to turn into a decent classic rider which never hurts. As you say he's probably AG2R n°2 option and I projected him around 1000-1200 points when doing my team. I get that there are a number of other good options in that price range that might have driven down his popularity but six picks still seems a bit low.

[Tigerion]

Well on the board early with a 4th and 5th in the aussie nats ITT

[Jancouver]

First points awarded

2017 CA Road Nationals Elite Men's Time Trial

Date: Thursday, January 5 2017
Buninyong - Buninyong
Distance: 40.9 km
Chief Commissaire: Greg Griffiths
Organiser: GTR Events
Download as: [PDF] [Spreadsheet] [Blog Text] [JSON]

Result
1. 26 Rohan DENNIS (BMC) 50:59.27
2. 33 Luke DURBRIDGE (ORS) 51:57.52 +58.2
3. 34 Ben DYBALL 52:37.99 +1:38.7
4. 53 Michael HEPBURN (ORS) 53:04.09 +2:04.8
5. 111 Miles SCOTSON (BMC) 53:28.59 +2:29.3
6. 14 Brendan CANTY (CDT) 55:00.76 +4:01.4
7. 75 Sean LAKE (ISW) 55:06.09 +4:06.8
8. 138 Cameron WURF (CDT) 55:13.24 +4:13.9
9. 92 Lachlan NORRIS (UHC) 55:33.66 +4:34.3
10. 68 Jacob KAUFFMANN (SNS) 55:37.42 +4:38.1
11. 88 Peter MILOSTIC 56:12.78 +5:13.5
12. 142 James OGILVIE 58:00.32 +7:01.0
13. 23 Marcus CULEY 58:34.30 +7:35.0
14. 10 Samuel BURSTON (MBS) 58:39.23 +7:39.9
15. 20 Jesse COYLE (MBS) 59:57.37 +8:58.0
16. 107 Patrick SACCANI-WILLIAMS (GDT) 1h00:02.97 +9:03.7
17. 108 Paul SALISBURY 1h01:25.33 +10:26.0
18. 18 Brendan J COLE 1h02:10.33 +11:11.0
19. 137 Nathan WOOD 1h02:27.67 +11:28.4
20. 122 Brodie TALBOT 1h02:30.88 +11:31.6
21. 47 Lachlan GLASSPOOL (ORF) 1h02:33.48 +11:34.2
22. 129 Andrew WAI 1h13:40.09 +22:40.8

[Vesica]

Okay, here's the full (barring any mistakes) spreadsheet. I haven't erased the tabs for old teams yet, and for some reason only 129 teams are listed on the rankings page, even though I counted 131 during entry process and copied 130 to the popularity page. Something must've gotten miscounted, so let me know if you're not there!

I have had trouble making the pivot table for rider popularity - I did it last year, figuring it out as I went, but am having trouble replicating it. If someone is interested in doing that and sharing that file back to me on this thread, that'd be great as I'm done for the evening. Cheers!

Thanks!

Looks like my only unique pick is Valverde. Someone else picked Beltran, too. Not a great pick, but I'd expected more fanboys to come through. Then it's Egoitz Garcia (3 picks) who I also expected to be a bit more popular. Only learned of him a couple days back on Biciciclismo.com, I think. Missed Cink, though.


Interesting that the most popular team, Vesica, still has more than a few unpopular picks. Is that a first?

I already got the feeling that I could end up high in the popularity rank, but being first is a surprise!

Indeed interesting to see that a couple of my pick are not very popular. I doubted for a long time about Roy Jans, but I think he can do very well in smaller (and maybe some of the bigger) European (Belgium/French) races.
Michael Hepburn focused last year of the track, that's the reason I picked him. Cheap and high potential. And my first points of the year already!

[MADRAZO]

Okay, here's the full (barring any mistakes) spreadsheet. I haven't erased the tabs for old teams yet, and for some reason only 129 teams are listed on the rankings page, even though I counted 131 during entry process and copied 130 to the popularity page. Something must've gotten miscounted, so let me know if you're not there!

I have had trouble making the pivot table for rider popularity - I did it last year, figuring it out as I went, but am having trouble replicating it. If someone is interested in doing that and sharing that file back to me on this thread, that'd be great as I'm done for the evening. Cheers!

Hi, as far as I can see my team looks completely wrong in this document, so I think there are some sort of mistake with this.

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I already got the feeling that I could end up high in the popularity rank, but being first is a surprise!

Indeed interesting to see that a couple of my pick are not very popular. I doubted for a long time about Roy Jans, but I think he can do very well in smaller (and maybe some of the bigger) European (Belgium/French) races.
Michael Hepburn focused last year of the track, that's the reason I picked him. Cheap and high potential. And my first points of the year already!

Mine too, though I don't really see Hepburn's potential to score on a team as stacked with talent as Orica. It may be entirely meaningless, but it's not a great sign that he couldn't beat the rider who finished 3rd in the Aussie TT, either. Unless the latter was a dodgy performance. It was the first time that he didn't beat him, I think.

As of right now, I'd have replaced Hepburn with Ganna. Very much hope you're right though, as I want riders in that price range to do more than be decent filler picks who just double their scores. They have to have 200+ potential and I don't see it at this point.

I also considered Txurruka for the same slots as Hepburn and Boeckmans, even though he doesn't have a team (yet?) Ha, I just checked and two people have him. Love it.

And yes, I also expected Jans to be fairly popular (and probably be a better pick than the similarly priced, but far more popular Spilak.)

[Kazistuta]

MEYER Cameron
Another heart pick but I feel his talent is much greater than he showed last yer

Hate to be the one to tell you this - but he's retired

And un-retired again He's participating in the Australian road race sunday: http://metarace.com.au/carn/men_rr_startlist

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

And un-retired again He's participating in the Australian road race sunday: http://metarace.com.au/carn/men_rr_startlist

More:

"Meyer says he will try to combine his track and road ambitions over the next few years, with the Commonwealth Games and Olympics on his radar."

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/racing/cameron-meyer-returns-cycling-four-months-normal-human-288430#TcEj6RoJqCiD62yh.99

[Jancouver]

MEYER Cameron
Another heart pick but I feel his talent is much greater than he showed last yer

Hate to be the one to tell you this - but he's retired

And un-retired again He's participating in the Australian road race sunday: http://metarace.com.au/carn/men_rr_startlist

Thats funny.

On the other hand, my top dog Dennis won’t ride the Nationals road race this Sunday.

Apparently, he doest give a crap about results. Maybe I should have pick Geraint HOMAS instead as this spot was between the two. Well, you never know, Dennis is 3kg lighter this year and maybe he will out-climb all the other mountain goats targeting Giro.

“To be honest it’s never really going to go my way, as negative as that sounds,” Dennis said. “I think that it’s best I just go home. I cleared ahead and I’ll just sort of keep that one race day in the pocket.”

Dennis will instead return to training ahead of the Santos Tour Down Under. It’s a race Dennis won in 2015, but in 2017 he’ll ride in support of his teammate and fellow Australian Richie Porte.

From there he’ll ride the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race before heading to Europe and building towards the Giro d’Italia where he hopes to start learning the craft of being a Grand Tour GC rider.

“This year’s a lot about learning and that might mean that I actually don’t get any results this year,” Dennis said. “I might look like I’m completely crap, to be honest, but it’s what I’m going to learn. I might fail, like really fail when it comes to the Giro, but it’s all about learning how to look after myself for three weeks and then just make those small steps over the next couple of years.”

[the asian]

I already got the feeling that I could end up high in the popularity rank, but being first is a surprise!

Indeed interesting to see that a couple of my pick are not very popular. I doubted for a long time about Roy Jans, but I think he can do very well in smaller (and maybe some of the bigger) European (Belgium/French) races.
Michael Hepburn focused last year of the track, that's the reason I picked him. Cheap and high potential. And my first points of the year already!

Mine too, though I don't really see Hepburn's potential to score on a team as stacked with talent as Orica. It may be entirely meaningless, but it's not a great sign that he couldn't beat the rider who finished 3rd in the Aussie TT, either. Unless the latter was a dodgy performance. It was the first time that he didn't beat him, I think.

As of right now, I'd have replaced Hepburn with Ganna. Very much hope you're right though, as I want riders in that price range to do more than be decent filler picks who just double their scores. They have to have 200+ potential and I don't see it at this point.

I also considered Txurruka for the same slots as Hepburn and Boeckmans, even though he doesn't have a team (yet?) Ha, I just checked and two people have him. Love it.

And yes, I also expected Jans to be fairly popular (and probably be a better pick than the similarly priced, but far more popular Spilak.)

I too selected Hepburn but aint overly with his 4th place at the AUS TT. His time is too far behind Pore & Durbo for my liking. Wishing i selected Boeckmans instead.

I didn't select Ganna mainly because I'm not too postive aboout young rider development by Lampre/UAE Abu Dhabi and adding to that their off season travails felt riders from that team aren't worth risking.

[Gigs_98]

"SINKELDAM Ramon: I'm surprised he is such a rare pick. He is still pretty young and dropped from 396 to 142 points last year. And his bad last season wasn't only caused by bad shape, no, he was also part of the big Team Giant car crash last year, which also screwed up Degenkolb's season. Is there maybe some bad news about him, which I missed, because I really don't understand why he wasn't picked by more people."

I think the main reason people are not picking Sinkeldam is that he seems to has lost all claim for any leading sprinterrole on the team. Before last season he was almost tied with Arndt I think in the hierachi, and now I think its clear both Arndt, Walscheid and Bauhaus besides Matthews will sprint before him, so that he is stuck leading out, so that he mainly only has the cobleclassics left to score where he will struggle to improve enough despite a clear talent there.

In his best season (2015) he was in a team with Kittel and Degenkolb so I wouldn't say he is in a team with stronger sprinters this year. Moreover I don't think Walscheid and Bauhaus will be rated much higher than Sinkeldam by the team and I think the team has no leader for the cobbles classics, so his role there is much better now, since Degenkolb has left the team.

[MADRAZO]

"SINKELDAM Ramon: I'm surprised he is such a rare pick. He is still pretty young and dropped from 396 to 142 points last year. And his bad last season wasn't only caused by bad shape, no, he was also part of the big Team Giant car crash last year, which also screwed up Degenkolb's season. Is there maybe some bad news about him, which I missed, because I really don't understand why he wasn't picked by more people."

I think the main reason people are not picking Sinkeldam is that he seems to has lost all claim for any leading sprinterrole on the team. Before last season he was almost tied with Arndt I think in the hierachi, and now I think its clear both Arndt, Walscheid and Bauhaus besides Matthews will sprint before him, so that he is stuck leading out, so that he mainly only has the cobleclassics left to score where he will struggle to improve enough despite a clear talent there.

In his best season (2015) he was in a team with Kittel and Degenkolb so I wouldn't say he is in a team with stronger sprinters this year. Moreover I don't think Walscheid and Bauhaus will be rated much higher than Sinkeldam by the team and I think the team has no leader for the cobbles classics, so his role there is much better now, since Degenkolb has left the team.

Fair point and its definetly not impossible that he can claim a sprintrole again if he can show the speed he did in 2015, and he should definetly have a free role on the cobbles besides that. But still I feel quite sure that the questionable sprintrole and the drop from shared nr. 2 before 2016 to a start as most likely number 5 or 6 in the sprint hierachi ahead of 2017 (Waeytens the other number 5 or 6) in 2017 is the reason that he is not picked much. But surely he is a talented rider and could indeed end up a good pick.

[R_O_Shipman]

ZHAO Jingbiao - I had 34 points left, this guy was 33 and has a cool name. Plus he's 19, so could be on an upward trend?

This kid's a talent! But I can't believe someone else picked him! He was in my team which I submitted to skidmark, and I was absolutely certain he'd be a unique pick. But then the news about Vorganov getting a contract came out, so I had to make space, and unfortunately Zhao had to be sacrificed. Zhao won the senior national championship as a 19-year-old, and last season he showed good consistency in the sprints, and even won a 2.1 stage in Fuzhou. With more flat Chinese races being added in 2017, and with increased confidence and experience, he should be a decent pick. Other good things are team captain Wang Meiyin having left the team (I think Wang will struggle majorly in the WT) making Zhao the star, and that the old Lampre team have less incentive to go to China now, so the Chinese races could be more open.

Will be rooting for your team just because of this pick! .

Thanks man - that was exactly my thinking. That and the cool name. Or just the cool name. It was mostly the cool name.

[greenedge]

Ok here's my thoughts on my team below.

Porte 1109- hopefully he can win 2 early season WT races and podium a few others. Then podium at the TDF and hopefully target some races in America before going to the WC ITT. One of my only stage racing threats and not a GT candidate for the Giro, so it should ensure I get some points from the TDF. In all a risky pick, but I think the renewed focus on him by BMC should serve him good.
Gaviria 833- A popular pick mitigates his risk of failure and I think he can score around 2000, hopefully the WC RR course on the day suits him.
Aru 777- I considered Zakarin or Kruijswijk over him, but realised with his 2015 schedule repeated he should get around 1400.
Benoot 588- Hopefully he can score big in the new WT cobbled races.
Degenkolb 550- Pretty obvious.
Landa 479-Hopefully he can have a great early season and unrealistically get a chance to stagehunt at the Vuelta.
Haas 315-Needed an Ardennes rider and he should be competitive in TDU and AGR. If he goes to the Giro he could win a stage too.
Viviani 275...
Konig 264-Hopefully his lack of great climbing support at the Giro doesn't hinder him much.
Tsatevich 228-Was superb at Catalunya, yet after his forced exit from the Giro things went downhill. Hopefully with a new team and a plethora of European races he can score highly.
Kung 225-He should do well.
Van Der Sande 205-The WT equivalent of Tsatevich, if he can stagehunt without Greipel I think he has high scoring potential.
Mamykin 199-Couldn't go past him.
Bouet 184-Coming 2nd in a Vuelta sprint was very impressive, hopefully he can be up there in harder French races that end in a sprint.
Albanese 159-Should have a lot of opportunities with no Colbrelli.
Guldhammer 138-Had a great 2015, but a terrible 2016 so hopefully that was the result of Cult and Stotling's failed merger.
Cimolai 106-Should be able to ride some smaller French races and score well.
Schachmann 101-Seems to be very consistent in time-trials and should get a lot of opportunities at smaller races based off his ITT.
Mas 92-His climbing talent is too good not to include.
Consonni 89-Has a good sprint which should get some points in Italian races.
Martinez 87-Completed his first GT, hopefully this year he benefits from that.
Intxausti 79-Too good a rider to not include.
Power 77-Will get some opportunities, if he rides the Herald Sun Tour he can top 5 and shouldn't have to ride for Yates (X2) or Chaves in big races until the Vuelta.
Edmonson 66-Has a nice sprint and ITT skills and some good pedigree, so he could score in some smaller Belgian races.
Van Keirsbulck 61-Can target the Belgian races and has a lot of talent, so should go well.
Boeckmans 60-I'd cheer for him even if not on my team, it just makes it an added bonus.
Restrepo 48-Finished the Vuelta and has a good punch for uphill sprints.
Planckaert 45-Should benefit from Topsport's proven track record of developing young riders.
Budding 32-Seems to be a young talent who was an instinctive pick.
Allegaert 12-One of two young Topsport riders who I hope can have great years.
P. Barbier 8-I hope he has a good sprint and can ride well at many of the U23 races.
Doull 7-2016 was devoted to the track and he should be able to score some decent points.
Malori 2- Same as Boeckmans.

A lot of popular picks in the upper echelons of my team, but also quite a few un-popular picks, of whom i'm expecting Porte, Haas and Tsatevich to lead the line for me. It was hard to select a team with so many great picks available but I hope this one can go well.
Some potential weaknesses of my team:
-A giro heavy focus, that a lot of other teams have too.
-Too many young riders.
-No Ardennes contender other than Haas.
-Probably not enough stage racing threats year round.
-An overly optimistic season for Richie.

Best of luck to everyone!

[DFA123]

I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.

[LaFlorecita]

I really like your team greenedge, you could do really well this year. I've added my thoughts for some (imo) interesting picks

Ok here's my thoughts on my team below.
...
Best of luck to everyone!

Porte 1109
Actually I was surprised to find out he only scored 1109 points, I feel he had a very decent 2016 for his standards without any major disasters or missed opportunities. Looking at his results, if he can go one or two higher in all his races, combine a spring campaign like in 2013 or 2015 with a performance at the TDF similar to 2016, he could definitely turn in a decent profit, but I just feel he isn't superstar material which to me means I can't see him score more than 1500-1600. Still, for an expensive pick a 150% increase is more than decent, and much more than I can hope for for my expensive pick, I suppose

Haas 315
I must admit I hadn't even considered him. I went for Navardauskas instead, I feel they are similar riders with a similar points ceiling, they pick up decently sized batches of points here and there in hilly races, and they are also similarly priced. I can definitely understand your pick from an Aussie perspective. It will be interesting to see which one of them ends up the better pick.

Tsatevich 228
I really like this pick! Both the rider and the inclusion in your team, I mean. Very interesting sprinter who could pick up a load of points in smaller races. Without Kristoff to worry about he might also have more freedom. I actually never considered him but think he could turn out great!

Van Der Sande 205
Oh, Tosh... Such a promising sprinter but he just fails to deliver. I've selected him in various games over the past few years but he isn't really showing any progress. Both for him and for you I hope he finally has a breakthrough season, because if he adds another 200 point season to his streak, I fear he will just fade into obscurity.

Guldhammer 138
Very interesting pick. I remember looking at him as well, but in the end decided against him, probably (looking at his page again) because this year he'll race at Conti level as opposed to Pro Conti in 2015 which limits his race calendar somewhat. Still, his results were below par in 2016, so if he finds his old form he should still score a good profit in the Scandinavian races.

Cimolai 106
Yay, someone else with Cimo To be honest I am not very sure about him, I even thought about taking him out of my team a few times. I didn't have any other sprinters for the French calendar though and couldn't find a good 1-on-1 replacement for him either, so he stayed. I'm hoping he gets to lead in some French races (Demare can't do them all) and if something happens to Demare, he might even be FDJ's designated sprinter. I guess we'll have to cross our fingers that Demare doesn't get a car hike on the Poggio this time

Schachmann 101
I feel good TTers (along with Italian sprinters) are the best neo pros to bet on, they often get their chance to shine because team hierarchy isn't as important in TTs and there are several smaller stage races in which a short time trial is decisive. So in that regard, he could definitely be a good pick. However, there are so many similar riders on QuickStep; good TTers with a huge engine; that I fear he'll get lost and be sacrificed even when he has a chance to get a good result. They do appear to have a good feeling about developing these riders, though.

Mas 92
Normally I am not too fond of neo pro climbers, but I couldn't leave him out. I know Contador rates him very highly and I also feel he has huge potential. QuickStep could be a great team for him as there aren't many climbers ahead of him in the pecking order, I only see Dan Martin, Alaphilippe and Brambilla and call me crazy, but I'm not even sure I'd rate the latter two above him purely based on climbing potential. Also, this may sound very weird but because Alberto rates him so highly and Enric is managed by Alberto's brother, I think QuickStep might feel some sort of obligation to give him ample opportunity to prove his worth. It certainly seems as though there is some sort of deal in place between the Fundación Contador U23 team and the QuickStep managing board, possibly established during the time Specialized sponsored both teams. 3 of their riders moved up to the Etixx feeder team in the past (which now no longer exists), the team trained in Belgium with some Etixx riders in the past and another rider, Diego Sevilla, has been invited to QuickStep's training camp next week. It certainly seems like an odd connection between a Spanish youth squad and a Belgian/Czech outfit mainly focused on classics.
Of course, I may be greatly overrating him and in that case, I should probably apologize for at least part of the hype surrounding him I'm definitely curious to see how he fares at the TDU. I don't expect him to finish high up on the GC as it is his first WT race, but it would be a very good sign if he could finish with the better climbers on the more difficult stages.

Van Keirsbulck 61
Think he could be a great pick. He's had so many issues with injuries and illness in the past years and should have a lot of freedom at Wanty. I had to decide between him and Trofimov for my team, went for Trofimov in the end but I'm not sure if it's the right choice. Guillaume definitely sounds super motivated in interviews so this decision may come back to bite me in the ....

[Jancouver]

I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.

I have both.

Ewan:
Between the TdU, Sun Tour & AUS nationals, he should be at 150-200 right there. Then, while I agree that all the bigger guys can out-sprint him, being top 5 on every sprinter stage is enough to deliver 1000. Everything else is a bonus. If he gets a better support/lead-out he should be at 1000+ easy.

Gaviria:
Unless you live under a rock, you should know that he got the speed to beat any sprinter on any day. Now, being on QS guarantees a proper support. He can climb and he is capable of winning big races. MSR will be his major podium this year a and he should be at 1000+ after the Giro. If Sagan can score 3300, Gaviria should score at least half, that is 1650 and that is also pretty much doubling his points ... and that why I took him.

[Jancouver]

@greenedge

Nice team!

Porte:
There is not way the little guy will score 2000+ points and at least double potential is my rule. He had somewhat successful 2016 and I can grantee you he will find a way to screw up, ... as he always does. You will be lucky to get your points back.

Tsatevich
I had him before and my conclusion is that there is always at least five faster guys in every race. Plus he is a Russian and because of the anti-russian, anti-doping propaganda, I will not touch any Russian. Therefore I also had to skip Mamykin, Trofimov and others.

[DFA123]

I have a quick question for Ewan and Gaviria owners. Where do you think they will get the points from next season? Kristoff always gets around 2000 nowdays so its difficult to see that changing. It's also hard to see Kittel getting fewer than last season. Then there is Bouhanni who missed his major event, Cavendish who perhaps lost a few points by focusing on the track, Greipel who underperformed a bit in the minor WT races, and Degenkolb who missed most of the season. It's not unreasonable that all of those could expect to improve slightly.

It seems to me that there are not many points available for up and coming sprinters in WT races. So Is the expectation that Ewan and Gaviria will be challenging the likes of Groewenegen, Coquard, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Viviani and Colbrelli in the second tier races? To me, it seems difficult to imagine Ewan or Gaviria turning up to endless minor French and Italian races to gradually accrue a huge haul of points.

I guess Gaviria may be at the stage now where he can challenge the big WT riders - but I'm doubtful he can do it on a consistent enough basis to score big points in those races throughout the season. Especially because Kittel and Boonen will be ahead of him at various points. The field for sprinters is so strong now, that even in most minor WT races the competition will be immense. I can see Sagan losing a few points to someone, perhaps Boassen Hagen and Demare as well - but there are still not many points to go around so many riders unless a couple of the really big players miss a lot of races through injury.

I have both.

Ewan:
Between the TdU, Sun Tour & AUS nationals, he should be at 150-200 right there. Then, while I agree that all the bigger guys can out-sprint him, being top 5 on every sprinter stage is enough to deliver 1000. Everything else is a bonus. If he gets a better support/lead-out he should be at 1000+ easy.

Gaviria:
Unless you live under a rock, you should know that he got the speed to beat any sprinter on any day. Now, being on QS guarantees a proper support. He can climb and he is capable of winning big races. MSR will be his major podium this year a and he should be at 1000+ after the Giro. If Sagan can score 3300, Gaviria should score at least half, that is 1650 and that is also pretty much doubling his points ... and that why I took him.

Fair enough, I kind of see the logic. I rate both very highly as riders as well, and Gaviria especially looks destined to be an absolute star in the next few years. But I'm still not convinced that either will come close to doubling their points. With Orica focusing much more on GC - with three potential challengers for stage races (possibly four with Kreuziger) it's difficult to see Ewan getting much support in the big races. Gaviria undoubtedly has some big wins in him, but I'd be concerned about the consistency and opportunities, particularly as he's not the number one sprinter, and is far from the number one classics rider on his team. I think there is much more limited opportunities for him to have a true break-out year like Sagan did, because of the team he's riding for.

Also, my question was more generally, that if Ewan and Gaviria gain an extra 1000+ points between them; who will they be taking those points from? The only sprinters I can see losing significant points from last season are Nizzolo, Cobrelli, Coquard and Sagan. But even that's not guaranteed, with the first three all capable of hoovering up a lot of points in their domestic races where Ewan and Gaviria won't be so prolific. The other sprinters to me look like they should get at least the same as last year; with some like Degenkolb, Viviani and Bouhanni possibly getting a lot more. I'm just sceptical that there are enough points to go around with so many quality sprinters that Ewan and Gaviria can make such big gains this season.