Log in:  

Register

The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

Come in and talk about betting, computer games and cycling simulations, and your office's or online fantasy cycling leagues.

Moderators: Eshnar, Irondan, King Boonen, Red Rick

Re: Re:

09 Jan 2018 04:01

bminchow wrote:
Koronin wrote:
PeterB wrote:I know that some of you create your team by comparing expected returns of various combinations of riders. I don't do that because it seems to me this method is so imprecise and unreliable that it simply does not make sense to use it. But now that I have my team I estimated how many points I expect at the end of the year, if all goes as planned (i.e. cautiously optimistic scenario). I've got to 17400 points.

Anybody else willing to share their projections? It may be interesting to compare not only with reality at the end, but also to get an idea how many points a winning team may need this year.



I'm going to predict I'm going to be bad at this game. If I finish mid pack I'll be happy.


That would make you average. Not bad! :) I thought that in my first year last year and almost made the top 50. I was for most of the year but didn't understand the post Vuelta season (still don't).


That's why I said I'd be happy if I finish mid-pack. I won't be as bad as I'm expecting.

Post Vuelta is the Worlds and the Italian one day races and some new race. Basically you need some Ardennes classics guys for the Italian one day races.
User avatar Koronin
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,658
Joined: 14 Oct 2017 01:42
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

09 Jan 2018 06:43

Update #1: Newcomer takes early lead in Australian Summer

CQ Manager Christmas has come and passed, everyone has showed off their presents and looked at everyone else's. Now it's time to get down to CQ Manager New Year, when the points are thin and the possibilities are high! With only the Aussie and New Zealand national TT and RR results, the first week is always a question of 'who picked the most guys that were actually racing and scored points'? This year, the winners were Hamish Bond (TT) and Jason Christie (RR) in New Zealand, both of whom were on zero teams; Rohan Dennis (Aussie TT) was on 4 teams, and Alex Edmonson (Aussie RR) was on 6 teams. So - not a ton of scoring. There were 8 teams that scored at least 100 points (ie. two non-Edmondson teams), and 50 teams that scored at least something.

Top 10 (of the week and overall, obviously)

Rank Team Points
1 Jon_Ezeitza 180
2 l'velo 140
3 sodak_za 132
4 Blues in the bottle 120
5 Jakob747 116
6 Maaaaaaaarten 112
7 Eric10 100
7 the asian 100
9 CQmanager 90
10 Poles & Co. 72

It's a newcomer to the game, velorooms applicant Jon Ezeitza (interesting fact - the only application I've ever received written in Spanish) who takes the first lead of the year! On top of Edmondson, their team had unique pick (and 2nd place finisher) Jay McCarthy, and 20 points from Miles Scotson for good measure. Second place l'velo rode on the backs of Edmondson and Ewan, and third place sodak_za was the top team without Edmondson, spreading the scoring around with Dennis, Ewan, Durbridge and Bennett.

As you may guess, Green Jersey points are in the same order, so the overall update is really the only necessary one this week. Next week, unless there are some players in the game who score points in Tachira, there won't be an update, although I certainly will provide one if anyone scores. Then, the floodgates will start opening with Bongo, TdU, San Juan, rolling into the European season, the Middle East races, the February warmup races in southern Europe, Het Volk, Paris-Nice, etc etc. Time to discuss our teams some more and pore over provisional start lists, my favourite time of year.

Spreadsheet at dropbox
skidmark
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,630
Joined: 13 Mar 2009 23:16

09 Jan 2018 10:35

Ah snap I hoped with Edmondson I would do well this week, but I dropped five places :p
User avatar Maaaaaaaarten
Senior Member
 
Posts: 3,557
Joined: 23 Oct 2011 17:47

09 Jan 2018 11:05

Good start of the rookie. My Australian team has worked like a charm. How long in the leadership? I hope it's for a long time.
User avatar jon ezeitza
New Member
 
Posts: 30
Joined: 03 Jan 2018 15:48
Location: Leitza (Nafarroa Garaia)

09 Jan 2018 13:30

15th, probably the highest position I will be on this season!
Nathanptz
New Member
 
Posts: 27
Joined: 08 Nov 2017 15:34

09 Jan 2018 13:57

Those of you who picked Halvorsen will get to see how he performs right away in the TdU. Didn’t pick him...I think he might end up being the second rider I regret not taking.
Skyline Drive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPjM6rZ4pN0
_____________________________________________________________________________
Canton Ave Climb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C90ZPlbEfmU
User avatar Jspear
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,539
Joined: 23 Feb 2014 03:50
Location: N. VA, USA

Re:

09 Jan 2018 14:01

Jspear wrote:Those of you who picked Halvorsen will get to see how he performs right away in the TdU. Didn’t pick him...I think he might end up being the second rider I regret not taking.

Yeah, I have no clue to why I picked Fabio Jakobsen over him... oh well, regets!
"Es el mejor con y sin"
WORLD CHAMPION
User avatar Valv.Piti
Veteran
 
Posts: 9,538
Joined: 03 Aug 2015 00:00
Location: Dinamarca, Aalborg

Re: Re:

09 Jan 2018 14:55

Valv.Piti wrote:
Jspear wrote:Those of you who picked Halvorsen will get to see how he performs right away in the TdU. Didn’t pick him...I think he might end up being the second rider I regret not taking.

Yeah, I have no clue to why I picked Fabio Jakobsen over him... oh well, regets!

I think both Halvorsen and Jakobsen could be crucial. Prime candidates for an almost-1000-points neo-pro season, like Demare, Coquard, Kittel, Degenkolb, Ewan and Gaviria.
User avatar Squire
Member
 
Posts: 1,290
Joined: 28 Dec 2010 23:39
Location: Shanghai

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

09 Jan 2018 15:10

With Gaviria and Viviani in front of him? I don't see it for Jakobsen.

Maybe Hodeg is better than him anyway?
User avatar fauniera
Member
 
Posts: 1,419
Joined: 12 Oct 2013 15:00

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

09 Jan 2018 16:56

fauniera wrote:With Gaviria and Viviani in front of him? I don't see it for Jakobsen.

Maybe Hodeg is better than him anyway?

I don't necessarily see that as a bad thing. There are so many Belgian races and other small races where he will have chances. Better than wasting 21 race days on the Vuelta or something like that.

That he's better than Hodeg is of course something that I and the 27 other Jakobites will be banking on. From what I've seen, I believe Jakobsen is a level above.
User avatar Squire
Member
 
Posts: 1,290
Joined: 28 Dec 2010 23:39
Location: Shanghai

Re: Re:

09 Jan 2018 17:43

Squire wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:
Jspear wrote:Those of you who picked Halvorsen will get to see how he performs right away in the TdU. Didn’t pick him...I think he might end up being the second rider I regret not taking.

Yeah, I have no clue to why I picked Fabio Jakobsen over him... oh well, regets!

I think both Halvorsen and Jakobsen could be crucial. Prime candidates for an almost-1000-points neo-pro season, like Demare, Coquard, Kittel, Degenkolb, Ewan and Gaviria.


:eek: You got a decent amount of faith in them! I see them doing well...just not quite that well.
Skyline Drive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPjM6rZ4pN0
_____________________________________________________________________________
Canton Ave Climb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C90ZPlbEfmU
User avatar Jspear
Veteran
 
Posts: 6,539
Joined: 23 Feb 2014 03:50
Location: N. VA, USA

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

09 Jan 2018 18:48

fauniera wrote:With Gaviria and Viviani in front of him? I don't see it for Jakobsen.

Maybe Hodeg is better than him anyway?


That's exactly the reason I didn't pick Jakobsen. Gaviria and Viviani for sure ahead of him, Hodeg possibly as well. And I guess that even Richeze will get chances in some races.
Vesica
Member
 
Posts: 320
Joined: 12 May 2014 18:21

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

09 Jan 2018 18:56

Vesica wrote:
fauniera wrote:With Gaviria and Viviani in front of him? I don't see it for Jakobsen.

Maybe Hodeg is better than him anyway?


That's exactly the reason I didn't pick Jakobsen. Gaviria and Viviani for sure ahead of him, Hodeg possibly as well. And I guess that even Richeze will get chances in some races.


I hope that Jakobsen will ride races as Handzame, Westvlaanderen, the flat flamish races.I do not know Hodeg's bike handling skills nut if they are Colombian, those races are not his at this moment.

BTW what kind of sprinter is Hodeg?
User avatar GP Blanco
Member
 
Posts: 770
Joined: 26 Dec 2012 11:34
Location: Bottom of a lake which used to be a sea

Re: Re:

09 Jan 2018 19:08

Jspear wrote:
Squire wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:
Jspear wrote:Those of you who picked Halvorsen will get to see how he performs right away in the TdU. Didn’t pick him...I think he might end up being the second rider I regret not taking.

Yeah, I have no clue to why I picked Fabio Jakobsen over him... oh well, regets!

I think both Halvorsen and Jakobsen could be crucial. Prime candidates for an almost-1000-points neo-pro season, like Demare, Coquard, Kittel, Degenkolb, Ewan and Gaviria.


:eek: You got a decent amount of faith in them! I see them doing well...just not quite that well.

In my opinion they're the two best U23 sprinters turning pro this year. And the best neo-pro sprinters sometimes score that many points. I'm not saying that they definitely will, but if anybody were to do it, it would likely be one of them.

GP Blanco wrote:I hope that Jakobsen will ride races as Handzame, Westvlaanderen, the flat flamish races.I do not know Hodeg's bike handling skills nut if they are Colombian, those races are not his at this moment.

BTW what kind of sprinter is Hodeg?

Hodeg actually rode a lot of Belgian races last year, and did quite well in some of them. ;)
User avatar Squire
Member
 
Posts: 1,290
Joined: 28 Dec 2010 23:39
Location: Shanghai

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

09 Jan 2018 20:39

Squire wrote:
Valv.Piti wrote:
Jspear wrote:Those of you who picked Halvorsen will get to see how he performs right away in the TdU. Didn’t pick him...I think he might end up being the second rider I regret not taking.

Yeah, I have no clue to why I picked Fabio Jakobsen over him... oh well, regets!

I think both Halvorsen and Jakobsen could be crucial. Prime candidates for an almost-1000-points neo-pro season, like Demare, Coquard, Kittel, Degenkolb, Ewan and Gaviria.

The 1000 points is a bit of a stretch, Kittel is the only one who got there and he was a year older at the time. None of the other cracked 850. In fact, Gaviria (clearly a superior prospect to either Jakobsen and Halvorsen) and Demare (on the back of one massive result in Hamburg that probably oversells how good he actually was his first year) were the only ones above 800. Ewan, Coquard and Degenkolb were between 710 and 750 points and the first two had a perfect schedule. 700 points seems a more reasonable ceiling.

Then you get into the problem that sprinters especially early in their career tend to be the most dependent on their schedule to score. There’s a fair bit of uncertainty for Halvorsen and Jakobsen on that front. All the guys you cited, on top of being great talents had a good schedule and the backing of their team to set up their sprints to get to 700. Degenkolb was the only arguable exception as the number 3 at HTC behind Greipel and Cavendish, but he still had one of the all-time great lead-out teams for finishes too tough for Greipel/Cavendish.

There isn’t a race this year where Jakobsen is going to be better than the third option on the roster for his team. Quick Step does a good job of creating opportunities for their young riders to shine and he’ll get them when Viviani and Gaviria are occupied elsewhere but that caps his scoring potential quite a bit. You have to expect that those juicy one-day races at the end of the year where young sprinters pick up most of their points are going to go to Gaviria instead.

Halvorsen has the opposite problem. He’ll get all the opportunities he can handle but he doesn’t have the best support. He doesn’t even have a lead out man which is going to make consistent scoring difficult and then you’re left with hoping for a few big results on the WT like Demare which is awfully tough to do for a 22-year-old neo pro.
User avatar EvansIsTheBest
Member
 
Posts: 420
Joined: 12 Dec 2010 06:49

Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

09 Jan 2018 21:20

Hodeg is a boulevard sprinter - tall and powerful (186cm - 76kg). Quick-Step tested him at their academy and he put out freakish watts, almost equivalent to Kittel.

He also rode solidly in all the little races in Belgium - 11x top-10 in a 2-month time-span. Without mentioning l'Avenir of course.

2nd - GP Stad Sint-Niklaas
2nd - Vrasene
2nd - Keiem
2nd - Wingene
3rd - Asse-Relegem
4th - Emelgem-Izegem
5th - Rozebeke
5th - GP Memorial Briek Schotte - Desselgem
6th - Keerbergen
10th - Gistel
10th - Londerzeel

I would be very satisfied with 200 or 300 points though! :twisted:
Jakob747
Junior Member
 
Posts: 297
Joined: 10 Jun 2009 17:33
Location: Colombia

09 Jan 2018 22:28

@EvansIsTheBest:
Solid analysis, and good points.

But I think you're underestimating Halvorsen's support. In the TDU he is getting Puccio, Wisniowski, Lawless, Dibben and Doull as support. With some practice, that's a potentially pretty good leadout. None of them (except possibly Puccio) will be needed for stage race support, so if Halvorsen proves to be worth backing (which, judging by his past results, I believe he will) then I think he'll be reasonably well supported for the minor races that he will ride.

And Jakobsen was also one of the very few picks that I never thought twice about (and I even reconsidered Cavendish at one point). As you rightly point out, a lot of the names I mentioned had more favouable circumstances in their neo year, but I'm a big believer in Jakobsen's talent. And he can do a lot more than sprint at the end of a train. Maybe 1000 points is stretching it (though QS had three 1000+ point sprinters last year), but I think (and hope) 600-700 should be doable with a good season, and that will put him firmly in the optimal team.

But knowing my luck, they both do an Enzo Wouters. :)
User avatar Squire
Member
 
Posts: 1,290
Joined: 28 Dec 2010 23:39
Location: Shanghai

Re:

10 Jan 2018 02:44

Squire wrote:
...

But knowing my luck, they both do an Enzo Wouters. :)


You are probably right because I got both of those guys and usually, I can barely make the Top 100 in this game :D

At the same time, I'm hoping this is the year when even the broken clock can be right :eek:
User avatar Jancouver
Senior Member
 
Posts: 2,564
Joined: 14 Mar 2009 22:03
Location: San Diego, USA

Re:

10 Jan 2018 17:01

PeterB wrote:I know that some of you create your team by comparing expected returns of various combinations of riders. I don't do that because it seems to me this method is so imprecise and unreliable that it simply does not make sense to use it. But now that I have my team I estimated how many points I expect at the end of the year, if all goes as planned (i.e. cautiously optimistic scenario). I've got to 17400 points.

Anybody else willing to share their projections? It may be interesting to compare not only with reality at the end, but also to get an idea how many points a winning team may need this year.

My projection is around the same.
I'velo
New Member
 
Posts: 15
Joined: 15 Oct 2017 16:08
Location: Ro

11 Jan 2018 15:36

Usually, when I predict scores for my team >16000 I end up scoring <14000. The only time I predicted less than 16000 (playing since 2012) was last year with 15300 and my team ended the year with 14739. So in my case vastly underating talent pays off.

For this year my allmost-no-reasearch prediction sets my team up at 15775 points, but looking at some of those "predictions" I made ... yeah... not so sure about that... After last seasons high, I'll probably drop down to my usual mid-table obscurity again. ;)
HelgeBlendet
Junior Member
 
Posts: 252
Joined: 29 Dec 2011 09:43

PreviousNext

Return to Games and Fantasy Cycling

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: MADRAZO and 3 guests

Back to top