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The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

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22 Mar 2018 20:34

I'm getting worried about Michael Woods...
User avatar Squire
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Re:

22 Mar 2018 21:25

Squire wrote:I'm getting worried about Michael Woods...


Im getting worried about Enric Mas...
Salvarani
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Re:

22 Mar 2018 23:26

Hugo Koblet wrote:Screw this.. I'm picking Valverde next year no matter his cost :D


Well there is a reason he has the nickname El Imbatido. :D
User avatar Koronin
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23 Mar 2018 07:12

Valverde had gathered 783 points last after winning Catalunya. He currently has 699 points, and the way things look in thisrace could well get another 300p
User avatar DJ Sprtsch
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23 Mar 2018 18:02

With Terpstra winning today and what Valverde's doing at Catalunya at least I should have some nice points from them for this week. Plus should get some points from Soler and it looks like maybe Craddock as well.
User avatar Koronin
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Re: Re:

25 Mar 2018 16:26

Salvarani wrote:
Squire wrote:I'm getting worried about Michael Woods...


Im getting worried about Enric Mas...

Showed a little more today. From his comments on social media I'm thinking he struggled with the cold conditions. And FWIW, he is ahead of last year's CQ total so far.
But I agree, I had expected more from him. This could be the classic difficult 2nd year for him.
User avatar LaFlorecita
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Re:

25 Mar 2018 16:45

DJ Sprtsch wrote:Valverde had gathered 783 points last after winning Catalunya. He currently has 699 points, and the way things look in thisrace could well get another 300p

145 points behind last year, as he won't defend his Itzulia points. I doubt he'll do better in Amstel, but he could very well score more in June.
Goodbye, Tommeke; thank you for all you have given us!
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25 Mar 2018 16:58

Very happy, good week for me, I think, close to 1000 points without Valverde :eek:

Terpstra 225
Latour 162
Rosa 147
Martinez 86
Minali 73
Pantano 50
Capiot 48
Gaudu 45
Guardini 45
Senechal 26
Coquard 13
Mas 9
Bettiol 5
Halvorsen 5

Next week doesn't look as good for me. Need to hope for another good showing by Terpstra.

Dwars door Vlaanderen (1.WT)
Terpstra
Halvorsen
Minali
Senechal?

Route Adélie de Vitré & La Roue Tourangelle (1.1)
Enger

Ronde Van Vlaanderen (1.WT)
Senechal
Terpstra
Bettiol
Felline
Capiot
Coquard
User avatar LaFlorecita
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Re: Re:

25 Mar 2018 19:20

Netserk wrote:
DJ Sprtsch wrote:Valverde had gathered 783 points last after winning Catalunya. He currently has 699 points, and the way things look in thisrace could well get another 300p

145 points behind last year, as he won't defend his Itzulia points. I doubt he'll do better in Amstel, but he could very well score more in June.


The real question is rather he can get another Ardennes double, as I agree it's unlikely he'll have a much different result at Amstel. However, he should have a similar point total to last year when we get to July.
User avatar Koronin
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25 Mar 2018 19:30

Next week:

Dwars doorVlaanderen

Terpstra
Stybar
Amador
Valverde (yes, he's supposed to be racing this one, but don't think official line up is out yet)


Ronde van Vlaanderen

Terpstra
Stybar
Doull
Amador


Yeah, I need Terpstra and Stybar to have a great week.
User avatar Koronin
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Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

25 Mar 2018 21:05

Well, Valverde keeps things afloat again even if I missed out on the non-Catalunya races. I had a few hopes in the classics, if Roelandts' final attack had stuck and he had gotten 2nd instead of sitting up at the back of the group in E3, or if Danny van Poppel had some more legs to stay with the lead group after the main difficulties, I'd be celebrating. But there are some strong positives to take away for me and my team:

- Valverde of course. As Nesterk mentioned he's not ahead of last year's pace, as he's done more days than last year and won't be doing Itzulia (although if he goes into DDV he placed in that race a few years ago if I recall). But I don't know if any of us who picked him expected last year's pace so much as a good pace and no serious injury. Keeping pace with last year's Ardennes haul would be difficult as the drop in points from first to anything below is steep, but if anyone can do it...

- Latour looks strong and hung on for 3rd with those bonus seconds on the line. Of course it's unfortunate he got bumped up due to Bernal's awful crash. On the game side of things, his career has been dotted with top 5s in smaller races but never more than a few 12th and 14th places at WT level, so a strong 3rd in Catalunya is a promising sign for the year. And this race didn't even have a TT, where he's improved!

- Gaudu also did well, getting into the front group on the last stage to move up to 12th. Not earth-shattering, but other than the Tour de l'Ain last year, 45 points is more than he's gotten in a stage race so far as a pro.

- Sivakov got his season underway and got 50 points out of it while working for Rosa. It's not confirmation of my hunch that his talent is too big to be held down by Sky's depth in his neo-pro year, but it's certainly consistent with that idea. Craddock into profit from that race too, but after the first stage I hoped for more. We will see how he does in California - that's the race that could make his year.

Terpstra and Rosa scoring big in the 'guys I thought about for awhile but ultimately didn't pick' scale. C'est la vie.
skidmark
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25 Mar 2018 21:41

Valverde should be banned from this game. I am serious, he is not fair.
repre
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25 Mar 2018 21:43

Terpstra, Benoot and Latour doing me good this week with smaller contributions from Guardini, Gaudu and Craddock. should bump me up a few positions although I doubt it will erase the 17 I dropped the previous week.

starting to wonder whether Oomen over Soler was a good idea, I had the latter last year but decided against him this year. guess we are only in March and plenty can change yet...
escartin
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Re: Re:

25 Mar 2018 21:44

LaFlorecita wrote:
Salvarani wrote:
Squire wrote:I'm getting worried about Michael Woods...


Im getting worried about Enric Mas...

Showed a little more today. From his comments on social media I'm thinking he struggled with the cold conditions. And FWIW, he is ahead of last year's CQ total so far.
But I agree, I had expected more from him. This could be the classic difficult 2nd year for him.


Have him too and had also hoped for much more, but it also just seems he is focussing a lot more on the Giro De Italia GC than the 1 early weaks races this year, also skipping Down Under and so on, so hopefully he will get close to his topform for the Ardennes and then do very well in the Giro and then again be in topshape for the Vuelta and the Worlds, so he can still be a good pick. Had I known about the GC focus in the Giro before the season I would likely have been more reluctant to pick him though, but lets see.
MADRAZO
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Re:

25 Mar 2018 21:49

repre wrote:Valverde should be banned from this game. I am serious, he is not fair.



I'm thinking that he typically has too high of a points count for anyone to actually consider putting him on their team. Last year since he missed half the year thus leaving a good number of points on the table and making picking him a consideration and one that those of us who are his fans were going to take advantage of.
User avatar Koronin
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Re: Re:

25 Mar 2018 22:10

Koronin wrote:
repre wrote:Valverde should be banned from this game. I am serious, he is not fair.



I'm thinking that he typically has too high of a points count for anyone to actually consider putting him on their team. Last year since he missed half the year thus leaving a good number of points on the table and making picking him a consideration and one that those of us who are his fans were going to take advantage of.

Yep, i am just trying to make some excuses for being so dumb not to pick him.
repre
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Re: Re:

26 Mar 2018 01:42

repre wrote:
Koronin wrote:
repre wrote:Valverde should be banned from this game. I am serious, he is not fair.



I'm thinking that he typically has too high of a points count for anyone to actually consider putting him on their team. Last year since he missed half the year thus leaving a good number of points on the table and making picking him a consideration and one that those of us who are his fans were going to take advantage of.

Yep, i am just trying to make some excuses for being so dumb not to pick him.



Well I do remember several people debating rather or not to take him because of the seriousness of the injury he was coming back from. I just pulled up my sheet from the spreadsheet to see how many people actually choose to take him. There were only 15 of us that picked him. So it seems most people choose to not take the chance.
User avatar Koronin
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Re: Re:

26 Mar 2018 05:35

Koronin wrote:
repre wrote:
Koronin wrote:
repre wrote:Valverde should be banned from this game. I am serious, he is not fair.



I'm thinking that he typically has too high of a points count for anyone to actually consider putting him on their team. Last year since he missed half the year thus leaving a good number of points on the table and making picking him a consideration and one that those of us who are his fans were going to take advantage of.

Yep, i am just trying to make some excuses for being so dumb not to pick him.



Well I do remember several people debating rather or not to take him because of the seriousness of the injury he was coming back from. I just pulled up my sheet from the spreadsheet to see how many people actually choose to take him. There were only 15 of us that picked him. So it seems most people choose to not take the chance.


Well, it's easy to say he was a good choice now that he's looking good (although he only has half of last year's points so if he crashes and breaks something tomorrow he won't look great at the end of the year), but everything is a chance in this game when the future is unknown. I definitely considered Valverde's long history of incredible consistency and excellence in picking him, because I thought he had a high floor and was low risk/high reward in that respect, and I also took into account the reports of him being great in training, and I also considered the fact that he had career form at 36 so imagining him doing well at 37 wasn't outrageous... but in the end, would I have picked him even with those factors if I didn't just really like him and want to cheer for him as a rider? Definitely not. Although I guess that's maybe hard to parse as a thought experiment, since those are kind of the reasons I love him as a rider. I learned the hard way the risks of this game when a month into the first year my most expensive pick (Riccardo Ricco lolol) went out for the year with, uhh, renal failure; the next year my most expensive pick was just over 500 points. It's taken awhile to come back to wanting to risk it on an expensive rider, but it's a legit strategy as well as a damn fun ride when things are good.
skidmark
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Re: Re:

26 Mar 2018 09:46

skidmark wrote:
Koronin wrote:
repre wrote:
Koronin wrote:
repre wrote:Valverde should be banned from this game. I am serious, he is not fair.



I'm thinking that he typically has too high of a points count for anyone to actually consider putting him on their team. Last year since he missed half the year thus leaving a good number of points on the table and making picking him a consideration and one that those of us who are his fans were going to take advantage of.

Yep, i am just trying to make some excuses for being so dumb not to pick him.



Well I do remember several people debating rather or not to take him because of the seriousness of the injury he was coming back from. I just pulled up my sheet from the spreadsheet to see how many people actually choose to take him. There were only 15 of us that picked him. So it seems most people choose to not take the chance.


Well, it's easy to say he was a good choice now that he's looking good (although he only has half of last year's points so if he crashes and breaks something tomorrow he won't look great at the end of the year), but everything is a chance in this game when the future is unknown. I definitely considered Valverde's long history of incredible consistency and excellence in picking him, because I thought he had a high floor and was low risk/high reward in that respect, and I also took into account the reports of him being great in training, and I also considered the fact that he had career form at 36 so imagining him doing well at 37 wasn't outrageous... but in the end, would I have picked him even with those factors if I didn't just really like him and want to cheer for him as a rider? Definitely not. Although I guess that's maybe hard to parse as a thought experiment, since those are kind of the reasons I love him as a rider. I learned the hard way the risks of this game when a month into the first year my most expensive pick (Riccardo Ricco lolol) went out for the year with, uhh, renal failure; the next year my most expensive pick was just over 500 points. It's taken awhile to come back to wanting to risk it on an expensive rider, but it's a legit strategy as well as a damn fun ride when things are good.


So far I'm enjoying the ride. I have been rubbish at this game for the last two years, so chucking caution to the wind and banking on big point scorers wasn't much of a risk. So far I'm riding higher than in previous years. If only Gaviria could stay on his bike ... and Alaphilippe could climb a bit better ... it would have been perfect. I remember you, Skidmark, saying that I'd have some really good fun weeks with those three (and jungels too).

I'm really pleased with some of my cheaper picks, many who are showing great profit already: Soler, Hodeg, Dlamini, Basso, Fenn notably.
User avatar armchairclimber
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Re: Re:

26 Mar 2018 23:55

armchairclimber wrote:
skidmark wrote:
Koronin wrote:
Koronin wrote:
repre wrote:Valverde should be banned from this game. I am serious, he is not fair.



I'm thinking that he typically has too high of a points count for anyone to actually consider putting him on their team. Last year since he missed half the year thus leaving a good number of points on the table and making picking him a consideration and one that those of us who are his fans were going to take advantage of.

Yep, i am just trying to make some excuses for being so dumb not to pick him.



Well I do remember several people debating rather or not to take him because of the seriousness of the injury he was coming back from. I just pulled up my sheet from the spreadsheet to see how many people actually choose to take him. There were only 15 of us that picked him. So it seems most people choose to not take the chance.


Well, it's easy to say he was a good choice now that he's looking good (although he only has half of last year's points so if he crashes and breaks something tomorrow he won't look great at the end of the year), but everything is a chance in this game when the future is unknown. I definitely considered Valverde's long history of incredible consistency and excellence in picking him, because I thought he had a high floor and was low risk/high reward in that respect, and I also took into account the reports of him being great in training, and I also considered the fact that he had career form at 36 so imagining him doing well at 37 wasn't outrageous... but in the end, would I have picked him even with those factors if I didn't just really like him and want to cheer for him as a rider? Definitely not. Although I guess that's maybe hard to parse as a thought experiment, since those are kind of the reasons I love him as a rider. I learned the hard way the risks of this game when a month into the first year my most expensive pick (Riccardo Ricco lolol) went out for the year with, uhh, renal failure; the next year my most expensive pick was just over 500 points. It's taken awhile to come back to wanting to risk it on an expensive rider, but it's a legit strategy as well as a damn fun ride when things are good.


So far I'm enjoying the ride. I have been rubbish at this game for the last two years, so chucking caution to the wind and banking on big point scorers wasn't much of a risk. So far I'm riding higher than in previous years. If only Gaviria could stay on his bike ... and Alaphilippe could climb a bit better ... it would have been perfect. I remember you, Skidmark, saying that I'd have some really good fun weeks with those three (and jungels too).

I'm really pleased with some of my cheaper picks, many who are showing great profit already: Soler, Hodeg, Dlamini, Basso, Fenn notably.[/quote]


My first year attempting this game and picking Alejandro was easy because he's my favorite rider and has been for over a decade. I had to have him on my team. Now if he puts up 3,000 plus points this year, not entirely sure it's possible to put him on my team next year. Between what he and his friends were saying about his recovery, and the fact that at 36 almost 37 he had a career spring, why not take a chance, esp since I expected the consistency to be back even if the very top level wasn't. The top level definitely looks to be back as well. It appears the only time thoughts of the injury show up are when the roads are wet and dangerous. So that's also something as no matter how good he was training, no one could predict his mental state when he got back to racing.
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