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The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

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Re:

26 Jan 2018 17:57

LaFlorecita wrote:Kinda wish I'd picked Ganna! He's looking good.

:eek:
User avatar LaFlorecita
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26 Jan 2018 18:39

Three riders in profit already. Just need the big hitters in my team to start delivering the goods. Bala got the ball rolling today.
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Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

26 Jan 2018 23:45

Maaaaaaaarten wrote:Valverde already 24 points ahead of last year :eek: :p

No hope for those without him



First podium of the season and the only issues he was having was a bit of fear while descending, which is understandable given it was a cold and rainy day and his crash was on a cold and rainy day. I think he'll eventually get over that fear of descending and be fine.

The fact he's already got a podium is official proof he's back. That's he's already 24 points a head of last year is kind of crazy, although his best finish at Mallorca last year was 7th. :surprised:

Is he headed for yet another best ever spring?
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Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

27 Jan 2018 02:33

Well, I missed out on the initial discussion of teams in early January, then got a couple of posts up going through most of my team, but then got busy again and wasn't able to finish up. Better late than never, I guess - just as racing is getting underway in Europe, I guess that's still early enough that anything is possible, ha. Okay, here's the last of my team, the least popular riders that I picked:

Pavel Sivakov (142 points, 23 teams) - yes, yes, neo-pro GC guy on Team Sky... why in the world would one pick that? I guess, in short, his results are just so jaw-droppingly dominant that I couldn't let myself not take him. I mean, I've seen Bjorg Lambrecht hyped as the best Belgian climbing talent in a generation (well, okay maybe that's not saying too much) and Sivakov friggin' clobbered him by over two minutes in both Aosta and Isard. And everyone else by... even more. Way more. Aosta had only 3 guys within 5 minutes. Isard only 5 guys within 10 minutes. The baby Giro was much closer, and he had an off-day at Avenir in return for which he satisfied himself with a stage win, but his general consistency and 'another level'-ness is too hard to pass up. Sure, I got a few second-thought flashes of Nikita Novikov, but other than the ending of his last name I feel like there aren't that many similarities. And yes, Sky. But there's enough room there for him to work for his leader and still get a top 10, for a leader to get injured and he's a 'surprise', for him to pull a Landa-at-Euskaltel and get a win working for others and going up the road as a foil but being too good. And a Sky neo schedule would likely be lots of 1-week races and no GTs, so that could be a good number of chances. I was skeptical of Lopez in his first year at Astana and was wrong to not pick him; don't wanna make that mistake again.

Lennard Kamna (220, 18) - He's still so young and his obvious talent could go in a number of ways... world class potential in the TT, I don't really know about his high mountain potential, but he can certainly stick out some hills. Plus, Sunweb put him on about the perfect program for a 20-year-old WT debutant last year. 61 days which started with Abu Dhabi, Catalunya and Romandie plus a few 1-days, then Fjords in May (where he got 5th), a couple of smaller races leading up to nationals and a summer break before Pologne, Vuelta (where he was pulled out after a top 10 TT on stage 16), then the worlds where he was part of the winning TTT and lost the two-up sprint after escaping the U23 road race. Not overworked, not too high of expectations, but a slow watering to let him bloom. I feel like if he did the same program this year, he'd get higher results in the TTs, and higher results in GC (I mean, he got nothing other than that Fjords result). I mean, carbon copy his year and give him one more GC result and high results in the German national and Worlds ITT and you've got a decent year. I don't know exactly what to expect from him this year, but he's got a solid base and a guy with a great TT who can hang around on other stages is bound to get some GC points here and there.

Alejandro Valverde (1828, 15) - ah, Valverde. Squire certainly correctly guessed after my last post that he would be my favourite pick, although I don't believe I've ever shared my Valverde fandom on these boards before. But I must admit that I've been hoping since this game began that there would be a year where it made sense to pick him, and here we are. I'm a fan for a few reasons. When I started being a big fan of cycling (I followed only the Tour in the last Armstrong years, then branched out in 2006) he was the most exciting all-rounder in terms of results (oh wait, he still is), and after reading extensively about cycling history I was excited to see someone who could do well in GTs and one-week races and one-day races. Also, on the 'stupid reasons we like athletes' scale, we were born two days apart, which always made him the pro rider I was closest to in age. And I've always liked rider ranking systems like CQ, so I've always sort of cheered for guys like him and Rebellin, who never, ever phoned it in but never won as spectacularly as, say, the Contadors of the world. Valverde is a CQ dream. Last year he had one race where he didn't score any points (like this year, one of the flat Mallorca stages); 2016, he had 2 (that one and Almeria). He's money everywhere he goes. So then the question is, what's his floor and what's his ceiling? It would be folly to pro-rate his 2017 for the rest of the season, as he was on career form. But 2016's 'modest' 2130 is too low, I think, because he did 3 GTs that year, and imagine how many points he could get being more fresh in, say, two week-long stage races and 4-5 one-days, than 21 more days of GT. 2015 and 2014 were on either side of 3000, but maybe that's unrealistic because those were his two best CQ years ever.

Basically, what I ended up doing was thinking of a number that would be an acceptable 'likely' number for him to get (say, 70% chance he gets it) and calculate his last 10 competitive years, average those, and if it's over that number, I was gonna pick him. I picked 2400 as an acceptable number. His average of the last 10 years he competed was 2402. Good enough. His floor is, barring an age-related or literal drop off a cliff (or, of course, that he would never be the same rider after last year's crash), somewhere around that 2130 I think. I can't see him doing worse than that. I think the upper range of 3000 is not entirely unlikely, and if so, he will be a great pick that only 14 other teams have. I get EITB's point that he is going to be 38, and I appreciate the analysis showing that he's scored fewer points towards the end of the season the last few years. I hadn't thought of that, and it's a smart analysis. But. Look at the end of the last paragraph. Valverde is going to be 38, but his 2 best CQ years were at 34 and 35, he dipped at 36 the year he did 3 GTs and there was a flat Worlds course, and then he was on pace for a career best at 37 before being injured last year. So I feel like on the balance of things, 3000 is more likely than 2000, especially with the Worlds course this year. Alaphilippe is a rider who has very similar characteristics to Valverde, is young and hungry, and missed the Ardennes last year. Picking him and a rider worth ~800 points might end up being a better strategy than putting all the eggs in the old man basket. I can't wait to see.

Aliaksandr Riabushenko (96, 14) - one of the last picks on my team. His potential is obvious from his string of top finishes on versatile Italian courses. The question with a rider like that is usually more one of 'will he reach that potential as a pro, and if so, how far will he get in his first year?' UAE makes that a bit of a crapshoot, they smothered guys like Guardini and Swift last year, and the only riders that made any real progress were those that were developing anyway (Consonni was a good example of getting chances, though). In the end, I took a last glance at their roster and thought 'well, Consonni is really his only kind of competition on hilly courses with a fast finish', somehow overlooking the fact that they have Swift and Ulissi. Oh wait, you say Kristoff is coming to that team too? Hmm, well, here's hoping he'll score in some .1 and .HC races this year!

Brandon McNulty (35, 13) - I was intrigued by his choice of Rally last year and was curious how he'd do in development for a non-development squad. But I felt like an 18-year old was something I could pass on. This year builds even more intrigue for me, as I really like Rally's strategy of going PCT and taking on some varied, but not-too-high-level races. And yeah, now he's only 19, but last year he was injured most of the season, and he got third in Alsace, his only real race of the season. I have heard the rumblings of his physiological talent, and the word that he's the most promising American prospect... ever. More than Costa, more than LeMond, ever. And, okay, that was coming from his coach, so take that for what you will. But either way, he's a high-level talent, and such high-level talents usually dink around in a bunch of races where you can only score 25 points max. I don't know exactly what to expect from Rally's calendar and his talent, but I know it'll be significantly more than 35 points as long as he can beat the 14 days racing from last year. I dunno, finish 5th-7th place in a handful of 2.HC races and you've got a few hundred points right there. He doesn't have to light the world on fire, although he might.

Ivan Garcia Cortina (165, 11) - I actually picked him quite early, unlike most of the guys this low on the popularity charts. I think maybe I wouldn't have picked him on 2017's results alone if I was just taking my first look at him, but I almost picked him for last year's game so he was on my radar. Last year he fit the profile of a rider I like - tons and tons of top 10 finishes in U23 races with no points, but a consistent portfolio of placings. Last year he had a pretty standard neo-pro learning curve in the classics, learning the ropes in the earlier races and getting 11th in Scheldeprijs. About what I'd expect from a decently fast neo-pro. Then consistent placings in a minor race (Japan, 2.1), a smattering of WT races to learn, 8th in the Euros, and the Vuelta, where he stuck with a fine breakaway one day and got 3rd, and 5th on the final sprint to Madrid to boot. So, not one thing that was particularly spectacular, but he showed some real versatility. That 5th on day 21 of a GT, beating Cort and Modolo among others, is a pretty good sign of a rider building some endurance. Sticking with an elite break on a hilly stage 19 is more good signs. Okay he's got Colbrelli and Haussler on the classics team so he's not top dog, but he's willing to attack, he's got staying power, and he's pretty fast. There are lots of chances, from the spring classics to the Spanish Championships to the Euros again to the Canadian races. I'm banking on him to continue his development this year.

Owain Doull
(196, 4) - not dissimilar to my reasoning for the above pick. He was on my radar last year (and on my team), he didn't do any one thing that was spectacular, but he was solid and showed a solid base, improved by the end of the year. I think what made me take a closer look was an interview late in the season where he identified the confidence that comes with gaining experience in the highest races. In particular, he talked about how when you've struggled just to stay in the highest level races, you find yourself getting results in the smaller races without even trying - in particular, he was talking about his 7th in Poitou Charentes and 9th in Tour of Britain. Looking at his year, everything aside from Scheldeprijs and that Hammer thing, all his races other than those last two were some level of WT. It was a real baptism by fire, and his results weren't pretty - DNF Strade, DNF E3, DNF, G-W, 108th Ronde, 101 Schelde, OOT Roubaix (badge of pride for that though), DNF Amstel, DNF Fleche (really? Who DNFs Fleche?) But - that, combined with his appendicitis at the start of the year, buffered my belief that he got off to a bad start and was chasing form the whole first half. He's clearly got some punch, judging by his late season results, and his podium with the Wiggins team at ToB in 2015 suggests that's what to expect as the norm, not just a one-off. I know he said he's gonna be an early worker at the big classics, but I feel he could play a role in the non-Flanders/Roubaix ones. And even if not, he can do some hills - okay, he was the last guy in a 40-odd group, but he made the front group on that uphill finish at TDU a couple of weeks ago. Maybe he can even get something outta the Cadel race. Certainly I'm banking on him being good in races like that, or the GB RR, or more stage races like ToB or the Norwegian .1 and .HC ones in the summer.

Andrea Vendrame (204, 1) - my first unique pick! I explained this pick at length a couple of weeks back: in short, last add to my team because I needed someone that price, young guy, solid results in different calendar months, lots of opportunities with his team and his calendar. I can see why he's such a rare pick, but if I've gotta get someone on the fly, I'll take someone with a decent floor rather than a possible bust.

Okay, whew! I needed to get that all off my chest to really feel like I have started this game!
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27 Jan 2018 09:25

When reading about the route change to Langkawi, I'm thinking "cr*p" for not even considering Guardini. As he's my highest omission in the popularity ranking, it's gonna hurt badly when he takes five stages and the GC in a very easy .HC race. Well, I can always "hope" for a well-placed injury or another Guardini-like sprinter (Marezcko?) turning up and giving him a run for his money.

Right now I don't like the forecast....
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Re:

27 Jan 2018 09:27

Kazistuta wrote:When reading about the route change to Langkawi, I'm thinking "cr*p" for not even considering Guardini. As he's my highest omission in the popularity ranking, it's gonna hurt badly when he takes five stages and the GC in a very easy .HC race. Well, I can always "hope" for a well-placed injury or another Guardini-like sprinter (Marezcko?) turning up and giving him a run for his money.

Right now I don't like the forecast....

There's no way Guardini survives Cameron highlands.
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27 Jan 2018 12:32

i feel good about Javi Moreno and especially Ganna right now.The Gav-crash was unfortunate, but Valverde showed that he isn't done yet so that neutralises that.
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27 Jan 2018 13:02

Vakoc in hospital after colliding with vehicle out training. I need him in the spring season or I'm done for.
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Re: Re:

27 Jan 2018 14:28

Squire wrote:
Kazistuta wrote:When reading about the route change to Langkawi, I'm thinking "cr*p" for not even considering Guardini. As he's my highest omission in the popularity ranking, it's gonna hurt badly when he takes five stages and the GC in a very easy .HC race. Well, I can always "hope" for a well-placed injury or another Guardini-like sprinter (Marezcko?) turning up and giving him a run for his money.

Right now I don't like the forecast....

There's no way Guardini survives Cameron highlands.


My bad - misread it as the general classification expected decided in the bunch sprints.
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27 Jan 2018 17:10

Only 5 teams with (Javier) Moreno. Good pick, 18-valve.(pithy), Geraint Too Fast, Giallo, PeterB, & Valv.Piti!
Goodbye, Tommeke; thank you for all you have given us!
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Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

27 Jan 2018 20:48

skidmark wrote:
Alejandro Valverde (1828, 15) - ah, Valverde. Also, on the 'stupid reasons we like athletes' scale, we were born two days apart, which always made him the pro rider I was closest to in age.


Funny enough you aren't the only one who likes an athlete for this particular reason. However, in my case it's not a cyclist. One of my favorite NASCAR drivers is Dale Earnhardt Jr and this "stupid reason" happens to be part of why. He's 8 days older than I am making him the driver closest in age to me, and actually one of the few pro athletes in any sport that close in age to me. (He did retire at the end of last season.)
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28 Jan 2018 09:28

New victory for my boys. On this occasion, of Mccarthy in the Cadel Evans. For what I hope to continue in the first places of the classification. We are making a good start to the season
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28 Jan 2018 13:12

Erik Baska second place at Trofeo Palma...

That is some nice points :D
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28 Jan 2018 15:36

Bravo Eiking, Second place in Marseille. 48 beautiful points that increase our CQ treasure.
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Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

28 Jan 2018 17:01

Madouas gets 7th in his first pro race which is really encouraging. Also, Bardet starts his world domination with his best ever result at La Marseillaise.
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Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

29 Jan 2018 03:09

I always love this week of the season, where races are coming fast and furious on several continents, and you're bound to have several riders on your team getting the first results of their seasons.

My week was... okay. Ubiquitous picks Nizzolo and Coquard picked up a handful (good on the fan level to see Nizzolo win so early in the season), Valverde was as expected but it was good to get confirmation he was not as my worst fears would have me believe, and Enger and Brambilla each picked up a placing. It was a mixed smattering of points elsewhere. Doull did show he could be suited for short classics with minor hills, getting 12th in the Cadel race, with Latour and Oomen getting a few small points for making the first group too. Garcia Cortina recovered from his horrible first stage in San Juan (from what I assume was the same sort of stomach thing that had Nibali withdraw) to finish in the front towards the end, and I wasn't expecting anything from him there anyway. Too bad I passed up on Ganna, who I had last year and had tentatively down to the wire this year, but that's always gonna happen. All in all, encouraging signs from some of my guys if not huge points.
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Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

29 Jan 2018 11:39

Pretty mediocre week for me with mostly just some points by popular picks. Three stage races again this week, so hopefully I'll bounce back a little.

Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana
TAARAMÄE Rein
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas
MOSER Moreno

I was kind of surprised to see Taaramäe being picked only 19 times. He won't do much here in terms of GC though with the 30km TTT and the team he is on.....

Herald Sun Tour
CHAVES Johan Esteban
EDMONDSON Alexander
POWER Robert

Secretly hoping Edmondson will win the prologue. Chaves overwhelming favourite for the GC I guess, but he's very popular so it won't matter too much.

Etoile de Bessèges
TURGIS Anthony
COQUARD Bryan
CAPIOT Amaury
ALBANESE Vincenzo

Ehhh expecting stages from Coquard, apart from that I don't know. I guess Turgis and Albanese could theoretically do something in the hilly stage.
Last edited by Maaaaaaaarten on 29 Jan 2018 19:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The 2018 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

29 Jan 2018 14:48

Yes, already regretting some of the big misses. But that always happens. Congrats to the guys that made some of the great early picks. Hoping to see some good debuts from some other riders. Put these lists together a week ago. Hopefully they still stand. Not that anybody else cares.

Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana
CHEVRIER Clément
KREUZIGER Roman
MAMYKIN Matvey
MOSER Moreno
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas
VAN POPPEL Danny

I'll be watching this one with great excitement. Really hoping to get some points out of this.

Herald Sun Tour
CHAVES Johan Esteban

Just keeping up with the Jones'.

Etoile de Bessèges
COQUARD Bryan
FOURNIER Marc
WACKERMANN Luca

Ehhh expecting stages from Coquard, apart from that I don't know. Might get a little lucky with the other two. probably not.
Bob
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29 Jan 2018 14:54

Hopefully they will get me some points :)

Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana
RODRÍGUEZ Cristian
BAGIOLI Nicola
MOSCHETTI Matteo

Herald Sun Tour
CHAVES Johan Esteban

Etoile de Bessèges
COQUARD Bryan
ALBANESE Vincenzo
BRESCIANI Michael
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29 Jan 2018 17:09

Points last week:
Coquard 60
Enger 48
Brambilla 41
Nizzolo 33
Latour 24
Pantano 21
Kennaugh 8
Chaves 5
Mas 5

Most of my points came from very popular riders, hopefully this week I will score with some rarer riders as well. Looking at Mamykin and Albanese, mainly. With the TTT in Valencia Mamykin isn't likely to score a whole lot though, I suppose.

This week's roster:

Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana (2.1)
Moser
Navardauskas
Mamykin
Rosa

Etoile de Bessèges (2.1)
Turgis
Coquard
Capiot
Albanese

Herald Sun Tour (2.1)
Chaves
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