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The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

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Re:

07 Jan 2019 05:50

Squire wrote:In addition to just not being on top of his game last year, Coquard says he was feeling the pressure of having to carry the team's ambition on his shoulders. He's much more at ease now that Rolland and Vichot have joined. Also I think his mental state wasn't right after Vital Concept was snubbed for the Tour wildcard. I think they'll get in this year, which should make Coquard more motivated. Additionally, his autumn was marred by a collarbone fracture in the Tour du Limousin. He somehow managed to come back for a few more races. He might not be as awesome as in 2016, but I'll be surprised if he doesn't at least double.

Nizzolo has a huge upside. I don't think we've seen all that he can do yet. But he's quite the risk. Even last year he was bothered by his knee, especially in the spring. He had surgery in early December to 'definitely fix' his problems. If the recovery period is short and the operation actually worked, he could be amazing at DDD. Remember when Cav crashed out of the Tour and Boasson Hagen had some top sprint placings after being delivered perfectly? That amazing leadout (i.e. mostly Janse van Rensburg) is still there with Vermote added on top and will hopefully be put to work for Nizzolo, who the management hopes will save their WT status by bringing in loads of points.

As for Sivakov, I've always thought he was a great talent, but he's not talented in the same way as Ricco and Valverde, or Lambrecht and Bernal. He's a big engine grinder, more like Jungels or Marc Soler. I've always thought his U23 results were not translatable to the WT straight away, and that he'd need a few years. He didn't really beat Lambrecht & co mano a mano, he just rode away early, sometimes even at the start of the stage, and made use of his superior capacity. That doesn't work in the WT. And that Sky team is so difficult to get to lead, unless you're Bernal.

I have more faith in Lambrecht, who I think can have a big breakthrough.


Thanks for the insight. Of course I'm happy to hear your more in-depth info and sound reasoning on the two picks we have in common than the critique of the guy you didn't pick, ha... yeah, I kind of got the sense of that about Coquard, and I guess I didn't follow his last season too closely since he was on so many CQ teams that I didn't really agonize over every result, but it was curious that he was not getting to the top step more consistently. And especially good point about Rolland and Vichot joining - I look for team lineup when seeing how many opportunities someone (especially young riders) might have, but haven't really thought about using that to assess the support a rider will have, but that could be significant, especially in terms of counter-intuitively making him feel less pressure to be the only one to get results, which might make him get more results.

I do think that the 2016 Nizzolo is closer to the 'real' Nizzolo than the last two years, so yeah I think the upside is huge. I think if they're riding him for WT points they will put him in enough of the right races that he'll have to get a return even if he's not 100%, the only danger being that he's pressured into racing when he's not ready and aggravates something. But that doesn't seem incredibly likely.

For Sivakov... I hear that. I followed some of the race threads for his U23 stuff but mostly I was going by the numbers, and it's definitely a different kind of talent/engine to attack early and go long than to ride away after winning the battle of attrition on the final climb. And not only does that not translate to the pros, it's Sky who are basically the antithesis of this. I didn't think of that angle, but even so it's certainly possible that he figures it out this year. But hey, Joe Dombrowski was a world-changing talent going to Sky, and then he was a still-potentially-world-changing talent leaving the confines of Sky, and... well. I've been wrong before.
skidmark
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07 Jan 2019 09:21

I miss only 3 riders from top 10 popularity table:

NIBALI Vincenzo - Although I am a big fan of him, his best days are over and I don't think he will get a GT podium again. The shark will bite only if he is allowed to win a stage. And I don't believe he can repeat M-SR win, that was a huge score last season.
CAVENDISH Mark - No country for old man. He never made it back since the tour 2017 crash, and he is not commited to road cycling as he was.
VAKOC Petr - He and Leopold KONIG were two of 0 pointers I had on my shortlist, but rumours about there health issues set me back.
In fact, KONIG was the last man to drop from the list (replaced with GENE Yohann /4pts/ who happens to be my unique pick - just because I know GENE will score at least some points by finishing races - but that was really not a smart pick)

btw You guys mentioned MARINI? He was also on the short list, but I dropped him becaus I found no informations about his new chinese team, and I couldn't find its website or any of its other team members. It seems to me that the team exists just on the paer and may not start the season (that scenario also happened with other teams before, who even suddenly quit during the season)
User avatar Martin
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Re: The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

07 Jan 2019 09:21

Coquard also has track ambitions for Tokyo 2020. That can be a good thing (he thinks he needs the track to be good on the road), it can also be a bad thing (conflicting schedules). While it is true that Vital Concept hired other leaders to take the burden off Coquard, they didn't do anything to strenghten the sprint train. At least as far as i can see.

Concerning Sivakov i agree with what Skidmark said. I think we both tend to go for the talent (van der Poel, Gaviria, Sivakov) while Squire has a stronger emphasis on the possibilities the riders might find. I would add that being a helper at Sky can have a benefit as well. I am thinking of team time trials, of which there are way too many nowadays. Sivakov could profit from being in one of the best TTT teams.

And yeah, high five back concerning Marini. 200 points should be possible here, maybe even more.
User avatar fauniera
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07 Jan 2019 11:39

I picked Lambrecht last year, because unlike a lot of neo-pros, I thought he would be free at Lotto to ride for himself pretty much straight away. Which turned out to be true. I also thought from his previous results and his size he could be a great climber which was less true - he's more of a puncher. His season went very smoothly except for not being able to ride Tour Down Under. Nice consistency although I didn't really think he did progress. Races with short climbs suit him best (Tour of Poland maybe best of all since no TT). Picking him last year kind of brought home to me how difficult it is for most 20 year olds stepping up to the pros. Didn't really consider him this year. I was close to picking another Lotto neo-pro, Vanhoucke, who wasn't far behind Lambrecht a couple of years ago
User avatar Eyeballs Out
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07 Jan 2019 12:55

I was also considering Vanhoucke but after last year's disappointment (valid reasons for it of course) I didn't pick him.

My thoughts on some riders I didn't pick- I'll go through the rest of my team later- (for some) I was surprised they were not picked as much.

Hindley, Bouwman and Sivakov were all riders I considered as young talents, but i'm unsure when they'll get a chance to ride for themselves this year. I think riding to support their GC leaders in GT's this year (or even riding a GT for Sivakov) would enable them to progress more than any wins this year would.

Gage Hecht and X.Lyu (the Chinese MTBer) are riders I was both intrigued by due to their evident talents they displayed in races last year, and the fact they race different disciplines. Hecht could be a challenger in both European and American races, whilst i'm sure that Lyu will win some race on the Asian circuit. They're riders i'll monitor for their performances this year. I also considered Olav Hjemsaeter, who finished behind Dainese and Gronewegen in a sprint, but ahead of riders such as Jans and Dupont, so he could be a sprinter to consider for European races.

Durbridge and Trentin I considered and was planning on including both until I realised I would slot Ewan and WVA into my squad instead of Gaviria and Zakarin and then I ran out of funds for them both. Hopefully they go well and I can cheer for them.

Vliegen and Wisniowski will have more opportunities on both their new teams to ride for themselves, Wisniowski in particular impressed me last year during the Cobbles, I just decided not to include him as I thought there would be too much uncertainty as to whether he or Van Keirsbulck would be GVA's last support rider/ the rider sent up the road who could potentially win.

Gaviria and Porte. Choosing neither of them will probably come to haunt me, but I had doubts over each of them. Gaviria was the fastest sprinter last year yet only assembled 600 points, is moving to a different team that has problems (though Molano will be a good help) and still crashes a lot. For Porte I didn't want to be disappointed on a CQ front if he failed this year, as it's hard enough being a normal fan of his with the TDF crashes.

Lastly, I have a feeling that Rui Costa has perhaps one or two really good seasons in him left and he looked as if he started to turn things around a bit last year, I think he could double his score.
Last edited by greenedge on 07 Jan 2019 12:56, edited 1 time in total.
greenedge
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07 Jan 2019 12:56

I had Coquard last year. He almost doubled his points but I must admit I was not impressed by his riding.
From what I remember he had plenty of chances but just couldn't deliver.

on edit: only now do I see Squire's excellent post on Coquard. But I'm still not convinced! Let's see in a few month's time.
User avatar DJ Sprtsch
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07 Jan 2019 15:21

Thought I would compare my team to Ruvu75's as well and see what you guys think, the different riders are the following:

[b]Ruvu75:[\b]
Landa
Gaviria
Nizzolo
Bonifazio
O'Connor
Halvorsen
Garcia Cortina
Vliegen
Barbier
Swift
Rowe
Atapuma
Van Staeyen
Munoz

[b]Nathanptz:[\b]
Kelderman
Cort Nielsen
Walscheid
Philipsen
Keukeleire
Capiot
Pelucchi
Bakelants
De Decker
Paasschens
Gibson
Asselman
Intxausti
Vacek

SO, 14 differences. quite a lot but I do think it is fun to compare the two teams and elaborate on the differences. Please do so ;)
Nathanptz
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Re:

07 Jan 2019 15:59

I quite clearly prefer Ruvu's team. But that's not surprising, as i share 7 of his picks (Landa, Gaviria, Bonifazio, Barbier, Swift, Atapuma and Van Staeyen) and not a single one of your picks. Of the picks you singled out above, i mean.

Kelderman will ride in support of Dumoulin, so i don't quite see the upside.
Cort never seems to deliver at the big races.
Philipsen is a huge talent but quite expensive (same as Pogacar).
Paasschens, Gibson and Asselman i know nothing about to be honest.
User avatar fauniera
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Re:

07 Jan 2019 16:06

Nathanptz wrote:Thought I would compare my team to Ruvu75's as well and see what you guys think, the different riders are the following:

Ruvu75
Landa
Gaviria
Nizzolo
Bonifazio
O'Connor
Halvorsen
Garcia Cortina
Vliegen
Barbier
Swift
Rowe
Atapuma
Van Staeyen
Munoz

Nathanptz:
Kelderman
Cort Nielsen
Walscheid
Philipsen
Keukeleire
Capiot
Pelucchi
Bakelants
De Decker
Paasschens
Gibson
Asselman
Intxausti
Vacek

SO, 14 differences. quite a lot but I do think it is fun to compare the two teams and elaborate on the differences. Please do so ;)


Listen son, I will not sugarcoat it.

Landa, Gaviria, and Nizzolo will score more points than all your guys on this list.

Kelderman will be a domestique, and while I had Walscheid on my long list, he will not score enough points to compensate for the rest of your team. But I think he got potential for huge points!
User avatar Jancouver
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07 Jan 2019 16:38

I agree that Ruvu75 probably has a better chance than Nathanptz.

But thoughts on Kelderman... Yes, he is a domestique in Giro. But Oomen got a top 10 that way last year. Kelderman can also do well in the ITTs, unless they make him take it easy in those. And surely Kelderman will be leader at Vuelta? And some one-week races?
Salvarani
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07 Jan 2019 16:50

That might be. My main reason for not picking Kelderman is his CQ-history.

2018 - 678
2017 - 902
2016 - 793
2015 - 620
2014 - 876
2013 - 702

Can't see any reason to suggest WK being a good pick.
He will score not more than 800 points. I think. And if that's true there should be many better options.
User avatar DJ Sprtsch
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07 Jan 2019 17:09

I also like Ruvu's team better, he has more riders that I have as well. But Nathanptz has Walscheid, like me, so I hope Jancouver is right and he gets a big score ;)
User avatar LaFlorecita
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Re: The 2019 CQ Ranking Manager Thread

08 Jan 2019 00:11

VALGREN ANDERSEN Michael - 1071 (Unique Pick) – Phenomenal bike rider with an impressive all-around skill-set! In my opinion, Valgren is the proximate successor to an aging Van Avermaet. Everything from Het Nieuwsblad to Liege is game and I consider him a very, very live outsider for the Worlds in Yorkshire as well!

EWAN Caleb - 776 (18 teams) – A few years ago Caleb Ewan was one of the most exciting cycling prospects in the world. Now approaching his mid-twenties, his natural progression curve should hopefully rise even further, allowing him to stamp his authority among the best of the best. I really look forward to seeing how Ewan fares within the renovated Lotto sprint set-up for the new season. I sense a good match. He's got solid support in terms of both firepower (controlling the breakaways) and experienced guys who can deliver him to the line.

GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando - 602 (83 teams) – When it comes to raw skills and unlimited potential, Fernando Gaviria is usually one of the guys most cycling fans come to think about. And there is a good reason for that, Gaviria posses everything needed to be a once in a generational talent. However, there are some major ifs to take into consideration as well. Does he crash too much? Too much focus on bling-bling and fashionable clothes outside of cycling? Nobody fancies his change to UAE either, pure money move. Guys like Molano and maybe the promising pursuit twins Oliveira needs to come in from the right and deliver immediately, to secure some sorts of powerful lead-outs for the speedy Colombian.

ANDERSEN Søren Kragh - 589 (5 teams) – He finished the year by winning the classic Paris–Tours race, displaying both strength and skill combined with a big dose of courage and race smarts. I really believe in his ability and rate his talent highly. Kragh is a multi-talented young prospect with across-the-board abilities on almost every kind of terrain, and I think he will form a formidable duo together with ¨Bling¨ Matthews in the Northern Classics this coming season!

VAN DER POEL Mathieu - 539 (20 teams) – I swear to god Mathieu Van der Poel posses Saganesque potential/talent as a bike rider. A jack of all trades. Limited race days? Sparse opportunities if he fails to deliver on his so-far pretty ambitious 2019 road schedule? I guess so. However, I never really consider leaving him out my CQ squad anyway though - the man is a beast and if nothing else, it should be fun following him all spring in the first serious road campaign of his career.

ARU Fabio - 400 (96 teams) – Last year he cost me every chance of success in the Main-Game thanks to his abysmal performances all year! I'm still pissed about that and didn't really want to include him in my squad this season, to be honest. Although chances of him redeeming himself and acting as some sort of "Grand-Tour" contender probably are slim, I didn't quite have the courage to leave him out of my team. I expect a somewhat better Aru in 2019, but that's also about it really. Not too enthusiastic on his behalf!

GAUDU David - 299 (57 teams) – 22-year-old pocket-rocket climber who displayed true panache and brute force when he won Tour de l'Avenir back in 2016! --- 53kg and a measured V02 of 92ml/kg-min --- this kid should be battling it out with Bernal and Sosa on the steepest gradients in Europe in the years to come! In theory at least! When Gaudu is good he is GOOD, the first 6 months of 2018 were just mediocre though. However, he now has a full GT in his legs and I think 2019 will be the year Gaudu confirms himself as a household name to the cycling audience.

CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban - 263 (90 teams) – Mononucleosis is never fun. Hopefully, Chaves has recovered and feels ready to assault the 2019 campaign with renewed forces. No doubt he lost some places in the Mitchelton hierarchy, Simon Yates is now the undisputed leader and where this leaves Chaves is still up in the air. Honestly, he is such a boring pick I didn't even bother to google his medical situation- I just added him because of his name and the odd chance he might get to lead the Vuelta in the Autumn! He is very sympathetic and on his best days a hell of a climber - but performance wise I have no idea what to expect to be honest!

COSNEFROY Benoit - 229 (15 teams) – I am a big fan of the guy and this kid won me over immediately he flew past Valentin Madouas on one of the last hills in Paris-Tours. Absolutely blew him away, and it's not like Madouas is not a very talent rider himself! I except a very opportunistic Cosnefroy in 2019. He can animated races and possesses the necessary strength to finish it off at times as well!

DE PLUS Laurens - 226 (24 teams) – I didn't see the crash back in the day but from the description of what I read, it was some tumble causing awful injuries, which he hopefully now has recovered completely from. De Plus has an insane engine though, Geert Van Bondt even predicted he could ride into the top-5 of a GT in the future (Het Nieuwsblad.com)... Less could do, at least in 2019, Jumbo-Visma is stacked as well, so De Plus could often find himself in a helping role I guess, but there will be chances to showcase his own talent along the way I believe. Solid yet unspectacular pick!

O'CONNOR Ben - 219 (37 teams) – In short, Ben O'Connor is one hell of a climber. Ben had a fantastic Grand Tour debut which sadly ended on an unlucky note on the descent of Sestriere. The strength he showed throughout the race stands, however, and a top-10 GC placing in 2019 seems pretty plausible if everything pans out for the lanky Australian!

CAICEDO CEPEDA Jonathan Klever - 207 (4 teams) – Caicedo is somewhat a personal favorite, whom I have followed for years and seen racing live several times here in Colombia. He is the reigning Vuelta Colombia winner - Who also won the incredible hard stage-race Clásica Ciudad de Soacha twice in a row, (2016 and 2015)... In Soacha, he went solo on the HC climb San Miguel increased all the way up and held his advantage on Romeral to finish off a fantastic performance. Carapaz was 4th that day finishing well over 2 minutes behind Caicedo. --- Paulo Caicedo who was his trainer between 2013 and 2017 and who also trained Carapaz for 3 years btw, mentioned in an article in El Universo that Caicedo is even stronger than Richard and described him as an outstanding (altitude climber) who also defends himself well against the clock! Now that sounds well and all - and I agree he is a fantastic climber especially at altitude in Colombia, but in Tour of Croatia 2017, Caicedo attacked on the climb up to (SV. Jure) and well he didn't look remotely amazing there, he hardly got a gap and ended the day on an unspectacular 24th place. Its one thing racing at altitude in South America, but on uneven roads and ****** goat-tracks in Europe with much higher speeds leading into the climbs well that's a whole other ball-game. Still worth a punt at that ¨price¨ though.

PADUN Mark - 191 (30 teams) – Padun impressed me highly in the Hammer-Series./Limburg. The day he totally worked over Sivakov and won the event for Bahrain. I also had the classic Valle d'Aosta 2016 in mind. The day he practically followed a guy like Enric Mas all the way up the hideous hideous Piani di Tavagnasco. He crashed the following day on stage 4, only to recover and finish second the next day on Cervinia after a long rage attacked together with Ravasi. Strong as an ox that Padun.

HALVORSEN Kristoffer - 162 (35 teams) – Halvorsen's top-end speed is world-class I am totally convinced of that. Team Sky is maybe a little bit of an ungrateful squad for a young developing sprinter, but I have a lot of faith in Halvorsen and his talent and think he will do better than in 2018 at least. An ¨Ackermann¨ seems unlikely next year, but less could do, anyway, classy bike-rider to say the least.

EG Niklas - 158 (8 teams) – A fragile little climber who might do well - or might not do that well was how I visioned Niklas Eg before the 2018 season. Of course, I remembered him from his junior days, I also took his lengthy absences from cycling due to sickness in mind - fast rewind to Jebel Hafeet where the camera lens out of the blue catches Eg connecting with the front group consisting of Valverde, Alaphilippe and what not. He ended the day on an excellent 7th place and my attention was back on him again after years of neglecting him. He was mighty strong in Croatia, had a solid Giro debut and all in all, showed enough glimpses of potential for me to take a punt on him for this year's game. Expecting some sort of progression although hard to tell exactly how much!

Might finish the rest of my team tomorrow if I have the time. The more unknown picks so to say.

Gotta have dinner know! :lol:
Jakob747
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08 Jan 2019 06:01

Well a solid 90 points for Durbridge is a good start to the comp
User avatar Tigerion
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08 Jan 2019 07:16

Off the mark thanks to Callum Scotson. I don't think I have ever scored points this early. Unusually for me, I also seem to have a decent team for TDU as well.
User avatar armchairclimber
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08 Jan 2019 08:54

This is my third year participating in this game.
For the past 2 seasons my uninspired strategy was getting lots of consistent guys who had a relatively good chance of doubling their previous CQ score. I believe that’s a great strategy for an average-to-good team (I finished between the 20th and the 40th position in both years) but gives you zero chances of winning the whole thing.

This year I changed my strategy a bit, especially for my top picks. I went for riders who can win and win big. Most of them could score less than last year (which was a nightmare for me when picking riders in the past) but they can also trash their previous scores if all stars align.

So here’s my team.

BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley (1130 points) - 26 picks
A once in a lifetime talent, the kind of talent who could win a Giro as a rookie. Had 1000+ points in his first WT season while often riding for others. I know it sounds crazy but I believe there’s room to score well over 2000 points. This guy has everything and more: team, recovery, climbing, time trialling, smarts.

NIBALI Vincenzo (693) - 87
Probably my most conservative pick. I don’t think he’s past it, every single word I’ve heard from him since the season ended screamed confidence. This Bahrein budget issue is no good news, but it could mean he’s fighting for a contract.

VAN AERT Wout (597) - 16
We’ve only scratched the surface of his potential last year. He’ll ride for a WT team in 2019 which means better preparation, better support, better attention to details (and Jumbo was a goldmine last year). A risky pick at that price, although his skillset is wide enough to score throughout the whole year.

VAN DER POEL Mathieu (539) - 19
I’m quoting skidmark here: his efficiency last year was crazy. I don’t know if this will translate to being as consistent on a tighter schedule but I don’t wanna miss the boat in case it does. He’s fast enough to beat competent sprinters at any level and he’ll be fighting for a lot more points this year. Exceptional talent with a chance to top 1500 points.

ZAKARIN Ilnur (473) - 69
Not much explanation needed here. Unless you think Katusha will be as bad as last year. Spoiler: I don’t.

ARU Fabio (400) - 95
This is actually the pick I like the least in my team. With Saronni stepping down UAE might be a lil better but it still looks like a mess. I’m taking a flier on Aru anyway, he can score 1000+ if he goes back to the basics.

LAMBRECHT Bjorg (337) - 22
One thing I like about this guy: he’s eager, even impatient at times. Setting is perfect at Lotto, with countless chances to ride for himself, especially in one week long races. Was the first guy I selected on my long list back in November, never left.

KITTEL Marcel (296) - 98
I can see Squire’s point on Kittel but I just couldn’t cut him from my team.

MCNULTY Brandon (273) - 7
I knew this would be a rare pick, but whenever I watched this guy race last year he was sensational. Admittedly, this could be the pick that ruins my game but I felt I needed to be bold to have a shot. It was a coin toss between him and Gaudu, and I dropped the frenchman just a couple of hours before sending my team in. Why did I do that? I feel like Gaudu is a great talent (I had him last year) but he will go through some more growing pains and the schedule won’t help him. McNulty on the other hand will ride a similar schedule to last year in a very protected environment and with zero pressure.

CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban (263) - 89
Health seems fine, which is all I needed to know.

FELLINE Fabio (257) - 63
I didn’t really consider him until I read an interview where he said he felt completely healthy after a while.

O'CONNOR Ben (219) - 36
Seriously what’s not to like about this kid? 23 years older with top20s in TdU and Catalunya, wins a stage in Trentino, goes toe to toe with the best in the business for almost 20 days in the Giro and then crashes out. He’ll be good.

TOUZE Damien (209) - 8
Had to choose between him and Cosnefroy for my Madouas’ 2019 wannabe. I believe Cosnefroy is the better talent but Touze is a tad faster. There are a few mouths to feed at Cofidis but also a ton of .1 races to score points in France. I’m confident.

PLANCKAERT Baptiste (206) - 27
Kind of a no brainer for me. Goes back to the level he belongs to, will ride a ton of one day races and stop wasting time in GTs/one week races.

BAUHAUS Phil (196) - 37
One of my last picks, can’t say I’m happy about it. I guess it’s boom or bust.

THEUNS Edward (191) - 61
Sunweb was clearly not the right fit.

PADUN Mark (191) - 30
Wanted to pick him last year but thought it was early, now I’m fully on the bandwagon. A beast at U23 level, huge engine, competent on all terrains. I don’t know how many opportunities he’ll get to ride for himself but I believe he’s on the verge of breaking through.

GARCIA CORTINA Ivan (153) - 14

I’ll keep picking him until he wins something big, which probably means I’ll pick him forever. Heart over head.

MEINTJES Louis (141) - 79
Bores me to death, but I can’t deny the ceiling.

CAVENDISH Mark (125) - 79
I didn’t have him on my team until the last day. Then I told myself: f*ck it, I want one last ride with the old man.

TORRES AGUDELO Rodolfo Andres (111) - 1
Can’t believe this is my unique pick, which is actually my first unique pick ever. I like the move to Team Illuminate: they race a ton of .1 asian races and don’t have any other leader. I mean Jorge Castiblanco and Martin Laas scored over 100 points last year on that team. Torres will kill it at that level, unless there’s something I don’t know about his health.

VAN ASBROECK Tom (95) - 19
At first I wanted no part of the ICA crowd of 3rd tier sprinters, but Van Asbroeck will mainly ride on home soil. He has scored big in belgian semi-classics before, so why not?

SWIFT Ben (72) - 53, ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin (61) - 46, BETTIOL Alberto (50) - 92

You know the drill here.

KUMP Marko (54) - 26
His Adria Mobil seasons don’t lie. He’s tailor made for that level.

BANASZEK Alan (40) - 8
There goes another rider I absolutely wanted last year but couldn’t fit in the budget. Turns out he disappointed big time in 2018 and is now much cheaper. He DNFed an astonishing amount of races last year which is obviously a big concern, but he is strong and fast. A change of scenery might do wonders for him, especially if Caja Rural races a few of those .1 french races.

KÄMNA Lennard (37) - 38
I knew about the motivational issues, but too big of a talent to pass at that price.

SENNI Manuel (34) - 14
I’ve got kind of a fetish for reaching precisely 7500 points and he was the rider I liked the most in that price range anyway. Broke a leg during last year’s Giro and his season was gone at that point, He’s out of contract at the end of the year, which is a bonus considering his last year at BMC.

BOOM Lars (37) - 66
No explanation needed.

RIVERA SERRANO Kevin (20) - 30
A gamble, since he was dreadful last year. Savio loves him though and he’ll get plenty of opportunities.

EVENEPOEL Remco (0) - 86, VAKOC Petr (0) - 73
Not expecting much from either.


I'll post some more thoughts on riders I didn't pick later.
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08 Jan 2019 13:11

Popular riders I overlooked (more than 20 picks): none, which tells me I did a better job than last year, when I completely overlooked game changers like G Thomas.

Popoular riders I was really close to pick: I already talked about Gaudu before. Luke Durbridge was a classic monster in 2017 and looked ready to step up but then didn't, I'm intrigued by him and his early results confirmed I probably should have picked him. I wanted Trentin but figured I could have only 2 among van Aert, van der Poel and him. I picked the two youngsters, according to my strategy. Moschetti is quick as a wink, I'm just never completely sure about neo-pro sprinters. I think Sivakov is a super talent, and I would've probably picked him if Sosa to Sky didn't happen, but there are really too many captains there.

Popoular riders I don't like: I had Gaviria 2 years ago and even in his best year to date it was a nightmare: crashes, unclear schedule, inconsistency. And if he couldn't get it together at Quickstep, what will happen at UAE? Bouhanni is a good sprinter, but Cofidis has a solid roster and won't always ride for him. Can't understand the love for Bakelants, he's moving to a team where he'll be a full time domestique. As I stated earlier I wanted none of the ICA sprinter, so no Barbier, situation too unclear. I 've been on the Intxausti-Konig train in the past 2 editions and it was always late, no thanks. Finally, I like Mareczko but the move to CCC means more WT races and less easy points for him.

Popular riders I'm neutral too: I get the fuss about Halvorsen, still not sold on him but wouldn't surprise me if he tops 500 points. Porte and Landa are sensible picks, I just went a different direction with Bernal. You know what you get with Rowe and Tony Martin (maybe). De Plus is a fine talent, he just doesn't excite me as others do.
User avatar SafeBet
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Re:

08 Jan 2019 15:39

Tigerion wrote:Well a solid 90 points for Durbridge is a good start to the comp


+1
Formally *Falze* but not sure what happened to that account

Thierry Claveyrolat fan
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08 Jan 2019 18:41

FROOME Chris
Points 1415 Pop 9
Dauphiné-Tour-Vuelta-Worlds ITT looks like a good 2019 race programme.
Gamewise it will be down to Froome to counter Porte + Landa/Porte + Gaviria combos.
I considered picking Porte and Gaviria in place of Chris but i do trust 100% the man who demolished Dumoulin on Colle delle Finestre last year. I don't think he's declining. Not yet.

NIBALI Vincenzo
Points 693 Pop 87
If he has overcome injury,he can still get 1000+ points.
Forza Vincenzo!

VAN AERT Wout
Points 597 Pop 17
Head and heart pick. Van der Poel looks untouchable in cyclocross,but i believe Wout will have his revenge on the road.

TRENTIN Matteo
Points 581 Pop 31
MS captain for spring classics,Vuelta flat stages and Italy's captain for Worlds RR if Viviani will have to race the Tour to appease QS new sponsor.
After 2 injuries that messed up his spring last year (and Roubaix crash was a big one),the European Champion jersey could give him wings this season.

ZAKARIN Ilnur
Points 473 Pop 69
If he can repeat 2017 then should be OK.
He's been a shade of himself last year and I fear could be a flop though.

BOUHANNI Nacer
Points 441 Pop 51
Very good sprinter in his best form and mindset.
Could score big in Coupe de France races and WT 1 week stage races.

ARU Fabio
Points 400 Pop 96
Huge potential gone to waste imo.
I don't believe in him since 2016 Joux Plane,but i had to pick him anyway.

MINALI Riccardo
Points 299 Pop 4
Afaik ICA is building a sprint train around him and creating a calendar of flat races like Tour of Denmark for him.
Giro wildcard would be nice too.
Hope he'll manage to follow his father's steps.

KITTEL Marcel
Points 296 Pop 99
Contract season. Obvious pick.

CATTANEO Mattia
Points 295 Pop 2
2017 Cattaneo could be a good pick.

FELLINE Fabio
Points 257 Pop 63
If he has overcome toxoplasmosis he can pick up points all over the place.
Third place at 2018 Italy's ITT Championships bodes well.

SPILAK Simon
Points 256 Pop 10
Contract year.
Looking forward to a rainy spring in Europe.

COSNEFROY Benoit
Points 229 Pop 15
Amazing talent.
Helper for Naesen in the big classics but I guess he'll get his chances in Coupe de France races such as Tro Bro Leon.

PLANCKAERT Baptiste
Points 206 Pop 27
Back in Belgium,he could repeat his 2016 season.

PELUCCHI Matteo
Points 168 Pop 3
Moving to Androni should give him leadership in Italian flat races.
Hope he'll finally deliver.

NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas
Points 133 Pop 10
Leader at Delko.
Obvious pick imo.

CAVENDISH Mark
Points 125 picked 80
Cannonball's last chance.
Boring pick.

HARDY Romain
Points 120 Pop 1 (unique pick)
Hope 2017 Hardy will show up in the hardest one day races in Italy and France.

BARBIER Rudy
Points 90 Pop 36
Cheap pick. He should get plenty of chances to lead ICA across Europe (alongside Cimolai).

ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin
Points 61 Pop 46
Could be a good pick for French stage races if he'll come back to his former level.

KUMP Marko
Points 54 Pop 27
Back with Adria where he scores well.

BETTIOL Alberto
Points 50 Pop 92
Obvious pick.

LIETAER Eliot
Points 43 Pop 13
Missed most of past season.
Expecting 300 points.

VALLS FERRI Rafael
Points 43 Pop 10
Willunga Hill pick. That's it.

BOOM Lars
Points 37 Pop 67
Obvious pick.

STALLAERT Joeri
Points 34 Pop 9
Guess he'll get his chances in Belgium's one day races once MVDP will end his road season.

SENNI Manuel
Points 34 Pop 14
2017 Senni would be a nice pick. Crashed hard at 2018 Giro,now he's in contract year and must deliver.

JARAMILLO DIEZ Daniel Alexander
Points 21 Pop 5
Manzana Postobon's captain for stage races.

VAN STAEYEN Michael
Points 20 Pop 14
Main sprinter for Roompot Charles.
Obvious pick.

INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat
Points 12 Pop 27
Obvious and low risk pick.

GULDHAMMER POULSEN Rasmus
Points 12 Pop 16
Boring pick.

VAKOC Petr
Points 0 picked 74
Really like the guy. I truly hope he'll win big races someday.

EVENEPOEL Remco
Points 0 Pop 89
Obvious and most exciting pick.
5th June 1999, the day cycling died
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Posts: 140
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Location: Savona,Italy

Re:

08 Jan 2019 19:21

ThePirate81 wrote:FROOME Chris
Points 1415 Pop 9
Dauphiné-Tour-Vuelta-Worlds ITT looks like a good 2019 race programme.
Gamewise it will be down to Froome to counter Porte + Landa/Porte + Gaviria combos.
I considered picking Porte and Gaviria in place of Chris but i do trust 100% the man who demolished Dumoulin on Colle delle Finestre last year. I don't think he's declining. Not yet.

NIBALI Vincenzo
Points 693 Pop 87
If he has overcome injury,he can still get 1000+ points.
Forza Vincenzo!

VAN AERT Wout
Points 597 Pop 17
Head and heart pick. Van der Poel looks untouchable in cyclocross,but i believe Wout will have his revenge on the road.

TRENTIN Matteo
Points 581 Pop 31
MS captain for spring classics,Vuelta flat stages and Italy's captain for Worlds RR if Viviani will have to race the Tour to appease QS new sponsor.
After 2 injuries that messed up his spring last year (and Roubaix crash was a big one),the European Champion jersey could give him wings this season.

ZAKARIN Ilnur
Points 473 Pop 69
If he can repeat 2017 then should be OK.
He's been a shade of himself last year and I fear could be a flop though.

BOUHANNI Nacer
Points 441 Pop 51
Very good sprinter in his best form and mindset.
Could score big in Coupe de France races and WT 1 week stage races.

ARU Fabio
Points 400 Pop 96
Huge potential gone to waste imo.
I don't believe in him since 2016 Joux Plane,but i had to pick him anyway.

MINALI Riccardo
Points 299 Pop 4
Afaik ICA is building a sprint train around him and creating a calendar of flat races like Tour of Denmark for him.
Giro wildcard would be nice too.
Hope he'll manage to follow his father's steps.

KITTEL Marcel
Points 296 Pop 99
Contract season. Obvious pick.

CATTANEO Mattia
Points 295 Pop 2
2017 Cattaneo could be a good pick.

FELLINE Fabio
Points 257 Pop 63
If he has overcome toxoplasmosis he can pick up points all over the place.
Third place at 2018 Italy's ITT Championships bodes well.

SPILAK Simon
Points 256 Pop 10
Contract year.
Looking forward to a rainy spring in Europe.

COSNEFROY Benoit
Points 229 Pop 15
Amazing talent.
Helper for Naesen in the big classics but I guess he'll get his chances in Coupe de France races such as Tro Bro Leon.

PLANCKAERT Baptiste
Points 206 Pop 27
Back in Belgium,he could repeat his 2016 season.

PELUCCHI Matteo
Points 168 Pop 3
Moving to Androni should give him leadership in Italian flat races.
Hope he'll finally deliver.

NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas
Points 133 Pop 10
Leader at Delko.
Obvious pick imo.

CAVENDISH Mark
Points 125 picked 80
Cannonball's last chance.
Boring pick.

HARDY Romain
Points 120 Pop 1 (unique pick)
Hope 2017 Hardy will show up in the hardest one day races in Italy and France.

BARBIER Rudy
Points 90 Pop 36
Cheap pick. He should get plenty of chances to lead ICA across Europe (alongside Cimolai).

ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin
Points 61 Pop 46
Could be a good pick for French stage races if he'll come back to his former level.

KUMP Marko
Points 54 Pop 27
Back with Adria where he scores well.

BETTIOL Alberto
Points 50 Pop 92
Obvious pick.

LIETAER Eliot
Points 43 Pop 13
Missed most of past season.
Expecting 300 points.

VALLS FERRI Rafael
Points 43 Pop 10
Willunga Hill pick. That's it.

BOOM Lars
Points 37 Pop 67
Obvious pick.

STALLAERT Joeri
Points 34 Pop 9
Guess he'll get his chances in Belgium's one day races once MVDP will end his road season.

SENNI Manuel
Points 34 Pop 14
2017 Senni would be a nice pick. Crashed hard at 2018 Giro,now he's in contract year and must deliver.

JARAMILLO DIEZ Daniel Alexander
Points 21 Pop 5
Manzana Postobon's captain for stage races.

VAN STAEYEN Michael
Points 20 Pop 14
Main sprinter for Roompot Charles.
Obvious pick.

INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat
Points 12 Pop 27
Obvious and low risk pick.

GULDHAMMER POULSEN Rasmus
Points 12 Pop 16
Boring pick.

VAKOC Petr
Points 0 picked 74
Really like the guy. I truly hope he'll win big races someday.

EVENEPOEL Remco
Points 0 Pop 89
Obvious and most exciting pick.


Thats a very solid team and if Froome delivers as expected it should do quite well.

Van Staeyen that you put as obvious could be a coup. I was tempted to use a spot on him too given the lack of sprinters with Rompoot, but I somehow concluded that De Bie would propably be the number 1 sprinter on the team, and that they would risk often riding the same races, and kind of forgot about him again. But I see now Van Staeyen talks about riding for himself as a sprinter again now so it does look quite good for that pick. I was also very close to picking Jaramillo that once looked very promissing only to waste years and stagnate in USA but that perhaps could get a new chance now, or at least perhaps get some cheap chinese points like Aguirre this year. Finally your unique pick Hardy is also a interesting pick. Despite his age he still seems like a rider with unforfilled potential being quite talented as U23 and then only showing it in glimpses afterwards. And when the very similar Rudy Molard with a very similar career could suddenly explode last year Hardy could easily do the same.
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