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The Cycling Betting Thread

Come in and talk about betting, computer games and cycling simulations, and your office's or online fantasy cycling leagues.

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07 Jun 2010 22:18

I'm new to betting, and was just checking out bet365. Would it be a safe bet to put my life savings on Contador for overall TdF??

the odds say 4/7, so does that mean if I bet 100 dollars I would be paid 157 dollars if I won? For a total earning of 57 dollars?

what happens to my money if my rider is busted for doping?

I seriously can't picture anyone beating AC.. are his odds going to shoot up to 1/100 or something crazy when the race gets even closer and more people bet? Will my bet remain the same as when it's placed or does it change depending on how many people bet after my bet is placed? Can you bet on people to win the TdF (or any stage race) after the TdF has already started?

oh and what does this mean, on the 365 betting ticket, "Each-way 1/4 1-2-3" ?

thanks!!
santacruz
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08 Jun 2010 01:02

Yes, you would win $57.

However, my advice to someone else on the Contador subject is the following:

The good thing about Contador being so short is that his odds won't come in that much. Yes, he will probably do the prologue well and be close to the lead, but his odds will stay roughly the same.

Due to this fact and the fact that the first few stages are sprinter friendly, wait till after the cobbles. If he does lose time on the cobbles, his odds will go out and you can get on him there at a better price.

If he doesn't lose time on the cobbles, then his price should stay around what it is now or maybe go in a bit but not much.

The way the betting works is as follows:

If a rider crashes during the race, you will lose your money. If he abandons or gets done for doping during the race, you will lose your money.

If he gets caught after the race, when he has been awarded the win, you keep your money. Same thing for stage wins.

I.E if you had Ricco to win the stage he won, you would have been paid out. He got busted for doping after the stage win, the books couldn't take your money away.

I.E if you had Ricco to win the Tour de France outright and he got busted for doping during the three weeks before the race was finished then it's tough luck, you lost your money.

I.E if you had Landis to win the 2006 Tour de France, you would keep your money.

To answer your other question, if you haven't picked up the answer above. You can bet the winner after the race has begun. For example, they had the outright winner in the Giro open to the last day. Obviously before Basso took pink, he was $1.55. When he took pink, he was $1.01. At one stage, Basso was about $8 to win. Hence why I mentioned about Contador. If he loses time on the cobbles, his price will drift out depending on how much he lost. So really, if you want to risk the value on Contador, wait till later in the first week.

I made a killing last year in the sprint stages backing Cavendish for the win and Farrar for the place. Cav for the win was around $2, and then went into $1.80, $1.60, $1.50, and even $1.40 on the Champs last year. Farrar's price for the place stayed around $4-$5 for the first few times. It wasn't until the bookies picked up the fact that people were making a killing that they had Farrar's odds something like. $8 to win and $1.80 for the place.

I intend on doing the same thing this year on sprinter friendly stages. Back Farrar for the place and potentially Cav for the win. Really, I can't see anyone in the flat stages coming first and second other than Cavendish and Farrar.
Sasquatch
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08 Jun 2010 01:17

Anyway back on the Dauphine regarding tonights' stage.

At the moment there are no head to heads worth taking. Bennati's odds for the win are nice @ $6 - yesterday they were what, about $2? That's what I'm talking about in regards to the above. The sprinters odds fluctuate a lot.

He's paying $2 for the place, so I might end up backing the place or I might leave him out because I don't trust him.

I've had a look at the Saxo Bank situation. It looks like they are talking about Cookie being the sprint leader. If that's the case, there is value for him to come top 3 @ $5.50
Sasquatch
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08 Jun 2010 01:18

Anyway back on the Dauphine regarding tonights' stage.

At the moment there are no head to heads worth taking. Bennati's odds for the win are nice @ $6 - yesterday they were what, about $2? That's what I'm talking about in regards to the above. The sprinters odds fluctuate a lot.

He's paying $2 for the place, so I might end up backing the place or I might leave him out because I don't trust him.

I've had a look at the Saxo Bank situation. It looks like they are talking about Cookie being the sprint leader. If that's the case, there is value for him to come top 3 @ $5.50. Will he? who knows. Will I take it, who knows. This is just loud thinking and assessing the situation at the moment.
Sasquatch
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08 Jun 2010 01:50

Thank you Sasquatch you have enlightened me a great deal! I will definitely wait on AC! great advice!
santacruz
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08 Jun 2010 01:58

No worries.

From a betting perspective, I hope Conti loses time on the cobbles. Not too much though but enough to get better odds :p
Sasquatch
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08 Jun 2010 05:16

I.E if you had Pellizotti to win the Giro prior to his BP violation, you would lose your money... Goddamn it!

That's my advice, don't make GC bets too far out as a crash/sanction can still occur with a month to go.

Markets for the winner not including Contador gives you the chance of picking the winner out of an open field.

I'll try backing "outsiders" (non-Contadorians) in the full market in the hope that they put in a good performance in the first two weeks and shorten significantly.
Ferminal
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08 Jun 2010 05:29

Schleck/Contador quinella last year was paying $6. But you can only do that before the race. So I'll do it day of the prologue when a market comes out for it.

Hopefully it's around the same price again :D

Will hedge that with Schleck to finish top 3 after the Cobbles.
Sasquatch
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08 Jun 2010 06:14

Stage 2

$15 Bennati @ $6
$5 Boasson-Hagen @ $9

$40 Bennati top 3 @ $2
Sasquatch
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08 Jun 2010 14:28

Sasquatch wrote:Stage 2

$15 Bennati @ $6
$5 Boasson-Hagen @ $9

$40 Bennati top 3 @ $2


You didn't read what I wrote yesterday? Boasson Hagen will take it easy during the Dauphine. Luckily for me, many thought he would win today and yesterday. And I have been laying him all day. Even after he had been on the front of the peloton with a few km left, people wanted to back him. That is the beautiful thing about Betfair. Risk free money can be made because of people with little knowledge betting on cycling.
San Carlo
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08 Jun 2010 18:19

Laying S Sanchez is at 16.
So if i understand well i have to bet for 150 euro to win 10?


Even if Contador loses time on the cobbles odds wont rise a lot, he's to big a favorite. There are safer bets at such odds then a 3 week race with crashes, flat tires, illness, epo, ... try Uruguay +0.5, much safer bet :D
Badeend
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08 Jun 2010 19:16

stage 3 looks like a no brainer, to bet on AC, since he claims he came to the race only to test his TT skillz and not to win the overall... they have him matched up against Millar.. in what world does Millar beat AC in a TT?? lol. safe to bet on AC for the win and the matchup against Millar??

do you guys think the Pro's ever call their relatives and give them insider info on who to bet on? Like, AC calls his bro and says "I'm going to kill the TT tomorrow my legs are feeling amazing and these guys don't stand a chance?" I feel like you could gain some valuable information if you knew first hand how their legs were feeling or if someone could say "no way I feel horrible don't bet on me. and definitely don't bet on so and so because they are also riding like crap"
santacruz
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08 Jun 2010 21:02

santacruz wrote:in what world does Millar beat AC in a TT??


Well, it was 364 days ago :D

Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré, Stage 4 : Bourg-lès-Valence - Valence I.T.T. (42.4 km) 10/06/2009
1. [GER] GRABSCH Bert THR 51'26"
2. [AUS] EVANS Cadel SIL 07"
3. [GBR] MILLAR David GRM 39"
4. [CZE] RABON Frantisek THR 40"
5. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 44"


I dont know at what odds AC started but under 1.50 i aint touching anything.
I will take Gusev over Bodrogi at 1.847. In the prologue Gusev was 27th, Bodrogi only 133th. Bodrogi lost over 1 minute in the first stage while Gusev stayed in front, so i think we can say Gusev his form is better then Bodrogi's or at least has more motivation for this race. Also the fact that they are teammates can play a part, Bodrogi will start hours before Gusev so Gusev can use his times to focus on. The fact that he starts late has also the benefit that other riders will tell him some things about this course. Not to start to fast, watch out for the headwind at that part of the course, ...
Badeend
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08 Jun 2010 22:41

Well, it was 364 days ago


oh wow, ha ha! silly me :eek:
santacruz
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09 Jun 2010 03:24

Grabschy @ $9.50. Nice!

Contador will probably win, but can't go past Grabschy at that price.
Sasquatch
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09 Jun 2010 06:12

$20 Grabsch @ $9.50

$50 Grabsch over Malori @ $1.55
$30 Grabsch over Moreau @ $1.50
$30 Gussev over Badrogi @ $1.85
$40 Van Garderen over Boasson-Hagen @ $1.67
$30 Gretsch over Riblon x Malori over Plaza @ $2.46
Sasquatch
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09 Jun 2010 06:13

Badeend wrote:Well, it was 364 days ago :D

Critérium du Dauphiné Libéré, Stage 4 : Bourg-lès-Valence - Valence I.T.T. (42.4 km) 10/06/2009
1. [GER] GRABSCH Bert THR 51'26"
2. [AUS] EVANS Cadel SIL 07"
3. [GBR] MILLAR David GRM 39"
4. [CZE] RABON Frantisek THR 40"
5. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 44"


I dont know at what odds AC started but under 1.50 i aint touching anything.
I will take Gusev over Bodrogi at 1.847. In the prologue Gusev was 27th, Bodrogi only 133th. Bodrogi lost over 1 minute in the first stage while Gusev stayed in front, so i think we can say Gusev his form is better then Bodrogi's or at least has more motivation for this race. Also the fact that they are teammates can play a part, Bodrogi will start hours before Gusev so Gusev can use his times to focus on. The fact that he starts late has also the benefit that other riders will tell him some things about this course. Not to start to fast, watch out for the headwind at that part of the course, ...


Yep. Gussev top 5. Contador or Grabsch to win.
Sasquatch
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09 Jun 2010 14:25

Sasquatch wrote:$20 Grabsch @ $9.50

$50 Grabsch over Malori @ $1.55
$30 Grabsch over Moreau @ $1.50

$30 Gussev over Badrogi @ $1.85
$40 Van Garderen over Boasson-Hagen @ $1.67
$30 Gretsch over Riblon x Malori over Plaza @ $2.46


Down $3.70 on the stage.
Sasquatch
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09 Jun 2010 14:28

San Carlo wrote:You didn't read what I wrote yesterday? Boasson Hagen will take it easy during the Dauphine. Luckily for me, many thought he would win today and yesterday. And I have been laying him all day. Even after he had been on the front of the peloton with a few km left, people wanted to back him. That is the beautiful thing about Betfair. Risk free money can be made because of people with little knowledge betting on cycling.


No offence mate but I'm taking everything you say like a grain of salt. You're not credible. You come on here and say you have been making easy money, but you don't post your plays before hand. You just come on here and claim you won so and so much etc.

Either post your bets, or don't make comments like that.

There's nothing worse than a Gambler who says he was on so and so without providing proof by typing your bets.
Sasquatch
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09 Jun 2010 17:14

Bodrogi was better then i expected, close call. The legs of the day decide, better luck next time.

@santacruz: first rule in betting: there is no such thing as a banker or a no brainer. Any bet can be lost. All bettors should hang that rule above their pc :D
Badeend
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