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Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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21 Oct 2017 11:59

http://www.cyclist.org.tw/upfile/file/20171021/20171021143828962896.pdf

Full results of the race. I feel like a legendary 18th place for Antonio is getting a little bit underrated here.
Kwibus wrote:So much quesions they have. Answers they will never get.
So why questions? If no answers?
-Kwibus, one of the great philosophers of the 21st century
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21 Oct 2017 14:27

What's the bet that Oscar Pujol joins Bahrain-Merida following that performance.
Brullnux
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Re:

21 Oct 2017 14:55

Brullnux wrote:What's the bet that Oscar Pujol joins Bahrain-Merida following that performance.

Would be smart, unless Pujol blows on climbs under an hour
Kwibus wrote:So much quesions they have. Answers they will never get.
So why questions? If no answers?
-Kwibus, one of the great philosophers of the 21st century
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Re:

21 Oct 2017 15:06

Brullnux wrote:What's the bet that Oscar Pujol joins Bahrain-Merida following that performance.


He was nothing special to put it mildly back in his Cervelo - Lotto days and there is little reason to believe that almost a decade on he became better.
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21 Oct 2017 15:10

Bahrain will know if Nibali actually had to do any decent effort to win the thing.
Kwibus wrote:So much quesions they have. Answers they will never get.
So why questions? If no answers?
-Kwibus, one of the great philosophers of the 21st century
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Re:

21 Oct 2017 16:53

Brullnux wrote:What's the bet that Oscar Pujol joins Bahrain-Merida following that performance.


Pujol does that every year and he is still only CT, he's like the Tour of Japan mascot
hazaran
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21 Oct 2017 18:53

Nibali beat a field full of riders that don't come close to the class of Nibali, outside of Cadel Evans and he's been retired for years. Gaimon was 5th, that should tell us all we need to know about the competition. Nibali could have won by 10 minutes or more if he wanted to, he just rode with enough power to win and nothing like the power he put out in the Vuelta. IMO

Darryl Webster wrote:
"Nothing seems to blind peeps as much as patriotism does it!"
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21 Oct 2017 18:55

Guys I wasn't being serious, I was making fun of Bahrain's depth and them snapping up any old riders and turning back the years with them (Pellizotti).
Brullnux
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21 Oct 2017 19:11

It was nothing more than sponsor duties, publicity, tourism in Japan and Taiwan and having some fun climbing 100k to 3200m with bro Antonio and cousin Cosimo. Given his fitness (he is still very thin) and form I don't think there was any doubt that he'll win the race breathing exclusively through the nose.
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21 Oct 2017 19:49

I obviously don't have any clue how to interpret results on climbs like these
Kwibus wrote:So much quesions they have. Answers they will never get.
So why questions? If no answers?
-Kwibus, one of the great philosophers of the 21st century
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21 Oct 2017 21:58

So, I have been thinking about what the 2018 Tour looks like for Nibali, assuming he rides it. If Froome is the rider to beat, which seems reasonable enough, then the head-to-head in this year's Vuelta would be a place to start in terms of assessing what is likely to happen.

Nibali lost about 1:20 between the TTT and the ITT, over a combined 50K or so, about :20 over 13K in TTT, and about 1:00 over 40K in ITT. So, over a little more than 30K in the TTT, he seems on track to lose 1:00, and over 30K in ITT, about :45. So he is down 1:45 on that. Assume Froome continues to beat Nibali on murito finishes, so he loses time on the stages to Mur de Bretagne and Mende. Say that adds up to :45, or, being pessimistic, 1:00. That means he has 2:45 to get back on the rest of the stages.

If Nibali is in form that approximates his 2014 performance in the Tour, then the first place to look for him to get time back on Froome is the cobbled stage. I don't think it is reasonable to expect the conditions that prevailed in 2014 to replicate themselves, and Froome did not even make it to the cobbles, so no basis of comparison on that day is available anyway. In 2015 Froome did not have any problems with the cobbles, but that was a much smaller amount of cobbles. So assuming Nibali actually does have an advantage on cobbles, perhaps 1:00 would be what he could hope to gain. The stage to Quimper might offer some options for Nibali, as he did well on the stage to Sheffield, but that gained him two seconds, plus bonuses if they apply. So we are up to a minute and ten seconds in a fairly best case scenario.

That leaves a minute and a half he needs to pick up on the rest of the stages, which effectively means the mountains. In the last week of the Vuelta, setting aside the time Nibali lost on Angliru as a function of his crash on the previous descent, Nibali picked up forty seconds on Los Machucos, but gave back twenty seconds the next day. So there is some precedent for Nibali gaining time on Froome in the last week of a GT (see also the last week of the 2015 Tour, setting aside the Alpe d'Huez stage, as Nibali lost a chain at the worst possible time.) but that is about twenty second there, so he still needs a minute and ten seconds.

Froome beat Uran by only :50 in the 2017 Tour, but it did not really seem that close. I don't see Nibali beating Froome in the 2018 Tour. Not unless Nibali has 2014 form, and the 2014 form was actually good enough to beat Froome at the time. Nothing in Nibali's recent GT results suggests that is likely to happen, as he has been unable to beat Dumoulin, Quintana, and Froome in his last two GTs. But, if somehow he does manage it, and does it purely on the basis of superior form, then Nibali answers a lot of questions about how strong a GT rider he is. I admit I am hoping he can do it, as it would also put to rest the minimization of his previous Tour win. It just seems like a lot to hope for.
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Re:

21 Oct 2017 23:34

Summoned wrote:So, I have been thinking about what the 2018 Tour looks like for Nibali, assuming he rides it. If Froome is the rider to beat, which seems reasonable enough, then the head-to-head in this year's Vuelta would be a place to start in terms of assessing what is likely to happen.

Nibali lost about 1:20 between the TTT and the ITT, over a combined 50K or so, about :20 over 13K in TTT, and about 1:00 over 40K in ITT. So, over a little more than 30K in the TTT, he seems on track to lose 1:00, and over 30K in ITT, about :45. So he is down 1:45 on that. Assume Froome continues to beat Nibali on murito finishes, so he loses time on the stages to Mur de Bretagne and Mende. Say that adds up to :45, or, being pessimistic, 1:00. That means he has 2:45 to get back on the rest of the stages.

If Nibali is in form that approximates his 2014 performance in the Tour, then the first place to look for him to get time back on Froome is the cobbled stage. I don't think it is reasonable to expect the conditions that prevailed in 2014 to replicate themselves, and Froome did not even make it to the cobbles, so no basis of comparison on that day is available anyway. In 2015 Froome did not have any problems with the cobbles, but that was a much smaller amount of cobbles. So assuming Nibali actually does have an advantage on cobbles, perhaps 1:00 would be what he could hope to gain. The stage to Quimper might offer some options for Nibali, as he did well on the stage to Sheffield, but that gained him two seconds, plus bonuses if they apply. So we are up to a minute and ten seconds in a fairly best case scenario.

That leaves a minute and a half he needs to pick up on the rest of the stages, which effectively means the mountains. In the last week of the Vuelta, setting aside the time Nibali lost on Angliru as a function of his crash on the previous descent, Nibali picked up forty seconds on Los Machucos, but gave back twenty seconds the next day. So there is some precedent for Nibali gaining time on Froome in the last week of a GT (see also the last week of the 2015 Tour, setting aside the Alpe d'Huez stage, as Nibali lost a chain at the worst possible time.) but that is about twenty second there, so he still needs a minute and ten seconds.

Froome beat Uran by only :50 in the 2017 Tour, but it did not really seem that close. I don't see Nibali beating Froome in the 2018 Tour. Not unless Nibali has 2014 form, and the 2014 form was actually good enough to beat Froome at the time. Nothing in Nibali's recent GT results suggests that is likely to happen, as he has been unable to beat Dumoulin, Quintana, and Froome in his last two GTs. But, if somehow he does manage it, and does it purely on the basis of superior form, then Nibali answers a lot of questions about how strong a GT rider he is. I admit I am hoping he can do it, as it would also put to rest the minimization of his previous Tour win. It just seems like a lot to hope for.


both reasonable and unreasonable at the same time :lol:
I am in no way a fan of Nibali but hate it when anyone's wins are marginalized the way his is. He beat everyone in the race. That's all he could do. There is no telling how anyone else would have ridden, and no telling how much more he had in the tank if challenged.
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26 Oct 2017 18:44

Left collarbone plate removed, the last souvenir from Rio.

Image
User avatar Rollthedice
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26 Oct 2017 20:14

Rollthedice wrote:Left collarbone plate removed, the last souvenir from Rio.

Image

Put in on top of the helmet for shark look
Kwibus wrote:So much quesions they have. Answers they will never get.
So why questions? If no answers?
-Kwibus, one of the great philosophers of the 21st century
User avatar Red Rick
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26 Oct 2017 20:52

Part of me is kinda shocked/impressed than he did this entire - pretty solid - season with some extra hardware in his shoulder.
But then again; of course he did...
Aka The Ginger One.
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27 Oct 2017 22:27

Rollthedice wrote:Left collarbone plate removed, the last souvenir from Rio.

Image
He's looking suuuuper chilled out in this pic. Let's hope he is great again nexct year
"They don't think it be like it is, but it do"
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28 Oct 2017 06:24

Yes, oxy does that to you.
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28 Oct 2017 08:18

bob.a.feet wrote:
Rollthedice wrote:Left collarbone plate removed, the last souvenir from Rio.

[photo removed]
He's looking suuuuper chilled out in this pic. Let's hope he is great again nexct year


He was great this year, so no reason why he wouldn't be next year.
Aka The Ginger One.
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28 Oct 2017 10:03

jens_attacks wrote:Yes, oxy does that to you.

Can confirm that oxy does that. Not sure ehat he had cause my guess us that the surgery is rather superficial.
Kwibus wrote:So much quesions they have. Answers they will never get.
So why questions? If no answers?
-Kwibus, one of the great philosophers of the 21st century
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06 Nov 2017 19:57

Old habits die hard or maybe never.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BbE5EGEAu3h/
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