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Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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17 Sep 2018 12:41

MSR would Make the season of 95% of the peloton. For Nibali it sure was a grand win to start a horrible season. Hopefully he'll manage at least one more decent result this year. Lombardi seems the best possibility at this point.
Alberto Contador=Legend!

Nibali becomes only the 6th winner of all 3 GTS (2014)!
Nibali joins Gimondi, Merckx and Hinault as only the 4th man to win all 3 GTS and 2 different Monuments (2018). A throwback rider in this age of specialization. Bravo!
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17 Sep 2018 13:39

Let’s see, 13 days, a couple of hard races and some training.
Ok form won’t be top for sure, but maybe it’s just a bit of pre-tactic, endurance could come out anyway in the end to favor him a bit.

What worries the most is Nibali’s mood.
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17 Sep 2018 15:18

We need that torrential downpour in Innsbruck
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Re:

17 Sep 2018 21:17

Climbing wrote:Let’s see, 13 days, a couple of hard races and some training.
Ok form won’t be top for sure, but maybe it’s just a bit of pre-tactic, endurance could come out anyway in the end to favor him a bit.

What worries the most is Nibali’s mood.


One race, Pantani. Cassani says he's tranquillo so the mood might change. In the end it is what it is. At this point I'd be very happy to see him attack from 100km out with pal Sagan and I wouldn't really care when they would be caught.
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17 Sep 2018 21:29

What?! No Toscana?
What a disaster...
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20 Sep 2018 17:21

Nibali trained yesterday around Lugano as witnessed by Strava. Apparently one eagle eye guy on twitter spotted his power which was removed soon, 421W for around 15 min. Maybe is not all lost.
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20 Sep 2018 18:06

I don't know Nibali's weight, but it isnt that high is it?
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20 Sep 2018 18:27

So 10 watts and 45 minutes off a Contador? Not winning any prizes with that.
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20 Sep 2018 18:38

Remco would drop him :p
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Re:

20 Sep 2018 19:28

Red Rick wrote:I don't know Nibali's weight, but it isnt that high is it?


He should be 63 Kg. I guess it depends on a lot of factors, training ride, the distance and the difficulty of the terrain, what were his intentions so it doesn't mean much. During a race, winning efforts on a climb at the end of the stage in the 15-17 min. range are estimated at 470-480W for the likes of Froome, Contador and... Horner. As for power meter readings an example would be Krushweak on La Camperona 2018, 406 W for 12:23, 25 seconds slower than the best time of Quintana.
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Re: Re:

20 Sep 2018 19:31

Rollthedice wrote:
Red Rick wrote:I don't know Nibali's weight, but it isnt that high is it?


He should be 63 Kg. I guess it depends on a lot of factors, training ride, the distance and the difficulty of the terrain, what were his intentions so it doesn't mean much. During a race, winning efforts on a climb at the end of the stage in the 15-17 min. range are estimated at 470-480W for the likes of Froome, Contador and... Horner. As for power meter readings an example would be Krushweak on La Camperona 2018, 406 W for 12:23, 25 seconds slower than the best time of Quintana.

That's basically 6 W/kg if you add 7kg for bike and gear. I'm gonna guess he could do more, and Nibali never really excelled in training numbers, but I'm not really optimistic.
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20 Sep 2018 21:16

Before Innsbruck we won't get answers regarding his form. The fact that Moscon is in good form could actually be better for him, so the others will not only control him. Like I said, let's just wait another 10 days.
Riposa in pace, Michele!
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21 Sep 2018 09:05

Nibali will not outwatt the other riders.
He hasn't done that in 4 years. He has a chance only if the race is very hard and endurance becomes key. He can probably produce those same watts after 6-7 hours on the saddle, most other riders can't.
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Re:

21 Sep 2018 09:48

Rollthedice wrote:Nibali trained yesterday around Lugano as witnessed by Strava. Apparently one eagle eye guy on twitter spotted his power which was removed soon, 421W for around 15 min. Maybe is not all lost.


Nibs is in full Batman mode. In Innsbruck you'll see the Shark Attack :exclaim: :exclaim: :exclaim:
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21 Sep 2018 13:06

I'm trying to be optimistic......
Alberto Contador=Legend!

Nibali becomes only the 6th winner of all 3 GTS (2014)!
Nibali joins Gimondi, Merckx and Hinault as only the 4th man to win all 3 GTS and 2 different Monuments (2018). A throwback rider in this age of specialization. Bravo!
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Re:

21 Sep 2018 15:02

SafeBet wrote:Nibali will not outwatt the other riders.
He hasn't done that in 4 years. He has a chance only if the race is very hard and endurance becomes key. He can probably produce those same watts after 6-7 hours on the saddle, most other riders can't.

How is Moscon for endurance?
Could he swap in if Nibs is still not on top form?
Or would that be Trentin?
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Re: Re:

21 Sep 2018 15:50

TourOfSardinia wrote:
SafeBet wrote:Nibali will not outwatt the other riders.
He hasn't done that in 4 years. He has a chance only if the race is very hard and endurance becomes key. He can probably produce those same watts after 6-7 hours on the saddle, most other riders can't.

How is Moscon for endurance?
Could he swap in if Nibs is still not on top form?
Or would that be Trentin?

Aru would normally be the alternate plan. He was 6th in Rio.

But Aru is probably gonna be worse than Nibali.

Moscon and Pozzovivo are the alternatives.

I think Pozzovivo is going way under the radar.

He might make it to a final group of 3 sprinting for the win and lose out on a medal
Veni, Vidi, Kirby

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Re: Re:

21 Sep 2018 16:06

Red Rick wrote:
TourOfSardinia wrote:
SafeBet wrote:Nibali will not outwatt the other riders.
He hasn't done that in 4 years. He has a chance only if the race is very hard and endurance becomes key. He can probably produce those same watts after 6-7 hours on the saddle, most other riders can't.

How is Moscon for endurance?
Could he swap in if Nibs is still not on top form?
Or would that be Trentin?

Aru would normally be the alternate plan. He was 6th in Rio.

But Aru is probably gonna be worse than Nibali.

Moscon and Pozzovivo are the alternatives.

I think Pozzovivo is going way under the radar.

He might make it to a final group of 3 sprinting for the win and lose out on a medal


:)
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21 Sep 2018 16:19

I concur with RR, Pozzovivo looks in good shape and can perform well in tough one day races. I don't think he has any chance of winning the race, but can easily top5.

Moscon is climbing better than Pozzovivo though. To me he's a total enigma, he's been borderline invisible for months and now he's suddenly in a monster shape. Cassani said the plan was for Moscon to ride the Vuelta and hit top shape at the end of it. One could wonder by how many minutes he'd be winning races if he indeed rode the Vuelta. The route looks very hard for him, but you can't rule him out at this point.

Formolo is another guy I'd keep an eye on, he's been sneaky good in LBL the past 2 years. Plus he rode the Vuelta without killing himself for GC. He might surprise.
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Re:

21 Sep 2018 16:33

SafeBet wrote:I concur with RR, Pozzovivo looks in good shape and can perform well in tough one day races. I don't think he has any chance of winning the race, but can easily top5.

Moscon is climbing better than Pozzovivo though. To me he's a total enigma, he's been borderline invisible for months and now he's suddenly in a monster shape. Cassani said the plan was for Moscon to ride the Vuelta and hit top shape at the end of it. One could wonder by how many minutes he'd be winning races if he indeed rode the Vuelta. The route looks very hard for him, but you can't rule him out at this point.

Formolo is another guy I'd keep an eye on, he's been sneaky good in LBL the past 2 years. Plus he rode the Vuelta without killing himself for GC. He might surprise.

The thing with guys like Formolo is, even out of shape Nibali will probably be better than Formolo. After all, Nibali wasn't horrible in the Vuelta. On stage 20 he was one of the strongest riders of an extremely strong break, in a stage that didn't suit Nibali that well. Even now I can see Nibali being one of the top ten strongest riders of this race, it's just that the gap from 10th best to best is still pretty big.
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