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Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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09 Oct 2018 18:09

Pretty sure that if somebody asked to chase that would be Valverde, cause TBM had Visconti up the road.
Anyway their "duel" would be Saturday, that is if Nibali has decent form. :D

Uran, Woods and Pinot all look amazing.
I guess Roglic and Bardet might have their say.
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Re: Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

09 Oct 2018 19:00

Agree.

I really hope that Nibali is 100%, even if as a Pinot fan I might end up regretting it. Like many, I have come to expect Il Squalo to be a big contender at the GDL, and actually at all races in Italy. It adds something when an Italian champion is at the forefront.
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09 Oct 2018 19:01

It's not a proper Lombardia without the big italian names in the fight
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Re:

09 Oct 2018 19:02

Climbing wrote:Pretty sure that if somebody asked to chase that would be Valverde, cause TBM had Visconti up the road.
Anyway their "duel" would be Saturday, that is if Nibali has decent form. :D

Uran, Woods and Pinot all look amazing.
I guess Roglic and Bardet might have their say.


Uran lacks the winner instinct, Woods will get dropped by half a dozen riders on Civiglio if he makes it in the important group, Pinot went a bit too fast this week and he'll also do Milano Torino, don't think it's too wise and if necessary he can be dropped on descent. Bardet looks a bit past his peak and Roglic has no pedigree whatsoever in these big one day races. Of course all these and a few more can get to the line together with one Alejandro Valverde who needs just to cover and follow the right wheel.

None of the above matters much if Nibali's peak will be at Taiwan KOM challenge.
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Re: Re:

10 Oct 2018 01:00

Rollthedice wrote:
Climbing wrote:Pretty sure that if somebody asked to chase that would be Valverde, cause TBM had Visconti up the road.
Anyway their "duel" would be Saturday, that is if Nibali has decent form. :D

Uran, Woods and Pinot all look amazing.
I guess Roglic and Bardet might have their say.


Uran lacks the winner instinct, Woods will get dropped by half a dozen riders on Civiglio if he makes it in the important group, Pinot went a bit too fast this week and he'll also do Milano Torino, don't think it's too wise and if necessary he can be dropped on descent. Bardet looks a bit past his peak and Roglic has no pedigree whatsoever in these big one day races. Of course all these and a few more can get to the line together with one Alejandro Valverde who needs just to cover and follow the right wheel.

None of the above matters much if Nibali's peak will be at Taiwan KOM challenge.


When Uran has the legs he does well in one day races, much better than his GT riding normally. Still I couldn't believe it when Chaves outsprinted him at Lombardia. Bardet might have trouble dropping Valverde but it's his only way of winning.
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Re: Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

10 Oct 2018 15:56

Is he really doing the Chrono des Nations? It's over 1.000 kilometers from Como to go there and he will get mauled there by a lot of riders. Not that it is important, but why to do this?
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Re: Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

10 Oct 2018 16:30

Max Rockatansky wrote:Is he really doing the Chrono des Nations? It's over 1.000 kilometers from Como to go there and he will get mauled there by a lot of riders. Not that it is important, but why to do this?


A good excuse to not go to church on Sunday? He is by far the most famous rider attending, who knows maybe he gets a fee, criterium style.
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11 Oct 2018 01:39

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11 Oct 2018 17:03

TBM’s line-up for Il Lombardia: Vincenzo Nibali, Antonio Nibali, Ion Izagirre, Gorka Izagirre, Franco Pellizotti, Domenico Pozzovivo and Matej Mohoric.

Vincenzo Nibali is ready for the challenge: “After a good Tre Valli last Tuesday, in these last days I have tried again the Il Lombardia’s finale. The condition is growing even if, compared to last year, something is still missing. We will see how the race will go, certainly as usual I will give everything I can”.
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11 Oct 2018 17:45

Surely that's the strongest lineup in the race, no?
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Re:

11 Oct 2018 17:55

GuyIncognito wrote:Surely that's the strongest lineup in the race, no?

..

Kinda need a hurricane of rain for Antonio to be any use.
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11 Oct 2018 17:57

Plus the other brothers not riding uselessly for themselves as usual.
Maybe they will have have some loyalty after Nibali worked for Ion in the Vuelta?
Pozzovivo could be pivotal.

But most of all Vincenzo needs his legs...
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Re:

11 Oct 2018 18:17

Climbing wrote:Plus the other brothers not riding uselessly for themselves as usual.
Maybe they will have have some loyalty after Nibali worked for Ion in the Vuelta?
Pozzovivo could be pivotal.

But most of all Vincenzo needs his legs...


First of all it will be sunny. Then after Sormano I think only Pozzo and maybe Delfino will still be with him. In the end I guess it will all come to the Civiglio showdown. It's anyone's guess how he will perform,
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11 Oct 2018 18:35

I think ideally the pace is high all day but that's gonna be a pretty hard thing to do, so I think TBM is best off not doing much until Ghisallo and then ripping that and the Muro.

Can't let Valverde softpedal all day until the Civiglio.
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Re:

11 Oct 2018 19:45

Red Rick wrote:I think ideally the pace is high all day but that's gonna be a pretty hard thing to do, so I think TBM is best off not doing much until Ghisallo and then ripping that and the Muro.

Can't let Valverde softpedal all day until the Civiglio.

This will probably be the best strategy for FDJ as well. Pinot is likely the best climber at the moment and I would imagine that his plan is to ride Civiglio full gas and go solo. This would best be prepared by going fast already on Ghisallo/Sormano, however, after Gaudu and Reichenbach their team isn't very strong. What I am trying to say is that Nibali and Pinot have shared interests in making the race hard early and I could see them combine together until the bottom of Civiglio.
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Re: Re:

11 Oct 2018 22:46

Sestriere wrote:
Red Rick wrote:I think ideally the pace is high all day but that's gonna be a pretty hard thing to do, so I think TBM is best off not doing much until Ghisallo and then ripping that and the Muro.

Can't let Valverde softpedal all day until the Civiglio.

This will probably be the best strategy for FDJ as well. Pinot is likely the best climber at the moment and I would imagine that his plan is to ride Civiglio full gas and go solo. This would best be prepared by going fast already on Ghisallo/Sormano, however, after Gaudu and Reichenbach their team isn't very strong. What I am trying to say is that Nibali and Pinot have shared interests in making the race hard early and I could see them combine together until the bottom of Civiglio.

I agree with this. I would add Preidler to the FDJ. El Jorge and Tibo worked very well together in Poland. He can be the setup guy: better climber than most think, pretty big engine.

Vinnie is a huge question mark, but somehow finds ways to win.

Everybody knows that cracking Valverde is a key to winning. The problem is: who will commit? If he's the Nibali that we hope we see, hr'll try. FDJ will try. And? I'm afraid that most top names will take what they can, be opportunistic, save their legs, content with what's left after The Don eats the pie.

Go Squalo! Go Tibopino! Only they can save the World from a "nuclear holocoust" :p .
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11 Oct 2018 22:54

I think the route is hard enough to make attacking on Sormano possible with a small group.

It's just that there never is the occasion where it's preferable over waiting on the Civiglio
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Re:

11 Oct 2018 23:01

Red Rick wrote:I think the route is hard enough to make attacking on Sormano possible with a small group.

It's just that there never is the occasion where it's preferable over waiting on the Civiglio

Agree 1000%, and that's why I made the Muraut di Sormanot joke a few days back. It's not a murito, but a hell of a climb, and with this route, somewhat close to the finish, it's the place to attack, hurt everybody, skim the field to 20 riders max, and finish a wounded opponent on the Civi if need be.
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12 Oct 2018 05:32

The problem is that there is around 20 km "flat" after the descent, which makes it a bit difficult to attack from afar.
That is where usually the early attackers lose all their advantage.
With the conservative racing of last years, I don't see anybody attacking from that far.
I hope to be wrong.
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Re:

12 Oct 2018 09:04

Climbing wrote:The problem is that there is around 20 km "flat" after the descent, which makes it a bit difficult to attack from afar.
That is where usually the early attackers lose all their advantage.
With the conservative racing of last years, I don't see anybody attacking from that far.
I hope to be wrong.


It is far if you want a solo move to succeed, but it is not far at all if you want to attack the favorite (Valverde) with your team, which Bahrain and FDJ could do (and EF, but I don't think they will).
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